智能手机市场（至少是美国市场）的三大手机平台是Android、iOS和黑莓，这一点在业内已经形成了共识。但据Ovum预测，这一格局再过数年就会发生变化，Android和苹果的江山依旧稳固，但Windows Phone 7将取代黑莓坐上第三把交椅。

Ovum报告指出，2016年全球智能手机出售量将增长至6.53亿部，自2010年以来，平均年复合增长率达14.5%。Android的市场份额将增长至38%，比竞争对手iOS多20个以上的百分点——后者的市场份额仅为17.5%；智能手机市场份额将占全球手机市场的40%。

Ovum首席分析师Adam Leach表示，智能手机市场在未来5年将获得显著发展，到2016年，亚太地区智能手机出售量将达2亿部，并成为最大的智能手机市场。Android平台的成就归功于大量高端和低端手机设备制造商的支持。

ovum prediction

游戏邦认为Ovum最让人意外的结论是，WP7将于2016年超越黑莓，直追苹果iOS，其市场份额将达17.2%，届时Windows Phone的市场份额将达到22.6%，而黑莓仅9.2%。“对微软来说，它与诺基亚的结盟有望推动Windows Phone成为一个主流智能手机平台。”

Ovum的这一结论与IDC的预测情况非常接近，后者近日的报告也指出WP7到2015年的市场份额将超过20%。（本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译，转载请注明来源：游戏邦）

Ovum predicts smartphone shipments to hit 653m by 2016 as Android reaches 38%

The smartphone market – from a US perspective at least – has been dominated by three major players; Android, iOS and BlackBerry.

Numbers forecast by Ovum, however, suggests that, while Google and Apple are likely to remain key forces, Windows Phone 7 may soon supersede BlackBerry as the third major cog in the wheel.

Expanding Android

Against a backdrop of global smartphone shipments rising to 653 million by 2016 – averaging out at a compound annual growth rate of 14.5 percent from 2010 onwards – Ovum claims Android will see its share surge to 38 percent.

That will put Google’s OS more than 20 percentage points ahead of rival iOS – itself on a share of 17.5 percent – with smartphones as a whole accounting for 40 percent of the entire mobile market.

“The smartphone market will see significant growth over the next five years, once again outperforming the wider mobile phone market,” said principle analyst Adam Leach, revealing that Asia-Pacific will be the largest region with 200 million units shipped by 2016.

“The success of the Android platform is being driven by the sheer number of hardware vendors supporting it at both the high and low ends of the market.”

Opening Windows

The most startling conclusion drawn by Ovum, however, surrounds the growth of Windows Phone 7.

While the firm warns some OEMs might be put off adopting the format following Microsoft’s deal with Nokia – a suggestion not backed up current developments with Acer – Ovum believes its share will overtake BlackBerry and come close to drawing level with iOS by 2016, accounting for 17.2 percent of the market.

“For Microsoft, the deal provides a committed handset partner that has the potential to make Windows Phone a mainstream smartphone platform,” Leach concluded.（source:pocketgamer）