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业内分析人士热议美国动视公司终止《吉他英雄》项目

发布时间:2011-02-15 10:42:00 Tags:,,,,

玩家可能还对美国动视公司的决定无法释怀,该公司将终止《吉他英雄》(Guitar Hero)项目,这一决定受到了华尔街分析人士的高度关注。

众所周知,该游戏在过去几年的销量已呈现下滑的趋势。据游戏邦了解,这款游戏吸金已达10亿美元,所以分析师认为美国动视做了一个艰难的决定,才不得不放弃了这款游戏。

Guitar-Hero-Warriors-Of-Rock

Guitar-Hero-Warriors-Of-Rock

MKM Partners公司的埃里克·汉德勒(Eric Handler)表示,“游戏的运营情况其实还不错,但它一直在走下坡路,已经不能满足用户的需求了,可以把钱投在其他有更能产生收益的项目上。我同意动视所做的这一决定。”

还有很多人也和汉德勒持有相同的观点。Wedbush Securities的迈克尔·帕切(Michael Pachter )认为这一决定是经过深思熟虑的。M2 Research 的高级分析师比利·皮得根(Billy Pidgeon)则表示,美国动视公司就是得不断推陈出新,将该游戏淘汰出局。

虽然玩家觉得这一决定很让人措手不及,但华尔街早就开始揣测美国动视什么时候会做出这一决定。从去年《吉他英雄:摇滚战士》并不十分乐观的销售情况来看,这个项目被叫停已在人们的预料之中。

MO Capital Markets的爱德华·威廉姆斯(Edward Williams)表示,游戏利润下降,再加上销量减少,这些都是促使该公司取消这一项目的原因。

当然,美国动视并不只是终止《吉他英雄》的零售业务,DJ Hero官方网站已发表声明:该游戏的DLC服务也会停止。

据游戏邦了解,公司还在网站的“问与答”版块中表示,“我们2月份将会发行之前提到的DLC追踪和混合数据包,但遗憾的是我们将不会再发行新的DLC数据包。”

原因很简单:美国动视公司无法支持一个被市场淘汰的游戏。但可以说,如果该公司再花几年的时间,是有可能让这款游戏再获生机的,不过这些说法都仅仅是种猜测而已。

即便动视决定继续卖DLC,那也维持不了多长时间。皮得根表示,“我知道他们觉得卖一个已经停产游戏的数据内容并没有多大意义,因为利润会越变越少。”

汉德勒对此表示同意,“即使你只是把它当作数据业务,但投资回报实在太少了,还不如把资本用到其他地方。”

虽然有很多言论表示,《吉他英雄》这款游戏很受欢迎,但残酷的现实却告诉我们,所谓的狂热粉丝已经不买这款游戏了。据NPD数据显示,去年的《吉他英雄:摇滚战士》在美国的销量还不足26.1万份。

美国动视首席执行官Bobby Kotick日前在采访中表示,“它已经不再是一种可以让用户产生热情的游戏类型,我认为开发商应该把资源投放在用户更感兴趣的其他游戏上。”

时下颇受玩家喜爱的游戏是《使命的召唤》(Call of Duty )和暴雪公司开发的系列游戏。利用这一趋势,美国动视成立了服务于《使命的召唤》的工作室“Beachhead”,计划为该游戏社区创建一个数字平台,提供独一无二的游戏内容和其他服务。

不过游戏邦获悉,有不少人怀疑这不过是重蹈覆辙。美国动视公司会让《使命召唤》步《吉他英雄》的后尘吗?业内分析人士承认这一点还是有可能的,但同时也认为该公司会从2009年的激烈的市场竞争中汲取教训,当时有8个音乐游戏同时出击市场。

虽然对一些并不在乎什么运营底线的游戏玩家来说,失去《吉他英雄》让他们很难过,但分析家表示这就是企业的经营之道。

MKM Partners的埃里克·汉德勒表示,“中端游戏将逐渐淡出市场,你愿意为一些不可能成功的游戏多投入1000万美元或者2000美元吗?还是会把钱投资在《使命的召唤》或《魔兽世界》上?(本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译,转载请注明来源:游戏邦)

Industry Analysts Talk Activision’s Guitar Hero Shutdown

Players might still be reeling from the news that Activision is pulling the plug on Guitar Hero, but Wall Street is giving the fat lady a standing ovation.

It’s no secret that the franchise has been in considerable decline for the past couple of years. And while it seems like it was only yesterday that the games were pulling in $1 billion, analysts say the publisher made a hard choice that will likely serve it well over the long term.

“It had a great run, but it also had a steep fall and the customer demand just isn’t there,” says Eric Handler of MKM Partners. “That money can be spent on something that has better returns. I don’t disagree with the decision.”

Handler’s hardly alone. Wedbush Securities Michael Pachter called the move “prudent”. And M2 Research senior analyst Billy Pidgeon told Gamasutra that Activision has “pretty much driven the franchise into the ground with title after title after title.”

While gamers were caught off guard by the decision, Wall Street has quietly wondered when the company would make the move for some time. The tepid results of last year’s Guitar Hero: Warriors of Rock may well have been the final nail in the series’ coffin, though.

“Declining sales as well as a less appealing profitability profile owing to the inclusion of a lower-margin peripheral hastened the decision to cancel the project,” Edward Williams of BMO Capital Markets told us.

Of course, it’s not just the retail side of Guitar Hero that’s being shuttered. Activision, in a statement on the official DJ Hero website also indicated that DLC for that game (as well as Guitar Hero) will end as well.

“We will release the previously announced DLC track and mix packs for February, but – unfortunately, we will not be able to release new DLC packs beyond what we already have,” says an answer on the FAQs.

The reason for that is pretty simple: There’s not a lot of incentive for Activision to support a franchise it’s walking away from. (And, admittedly, yes, it’s possible the company will attempt to revive it a few years – but that gets into a realm of speculative thinking that’s fruitless for fans and painful for those who have lost their jobs because of this action.)

And even if Activision had decided to keep selling DLC, it probably wouldn’t have lasted very long.

“I can see them thinking it doesn’t make sense to sell digital content for a title they’re no longer producing, because the law of diminishing returns comes into play,” says Pidgeon.

Handler agrees. “Even if you made it just a digital business, the return on investment with that is so small that it makes more sense to spend the capital elsewhere,” he says.

While there’s plenty of talk about how wildly popular the Guitar Hero franchise is, the hard truth is that its so-called passionate fan base simply wasn’t buying the games anymore. Last year’s Guitar Hero: Warriors of Rock sold fewer than 261,000 copies in the U.S., according to sources with access to NPD data – with nine different SKUs on the market.

“It’s just not a category that’s getting consumers enthusiastic right now,” Activision CEO Bobby Kotick told CNBC Thursday. “I think you need to focus your resources on the things that get consumers really excited.”

At the moment, that’s Call of Duty and Blizzard’s titles. And to capitalize on that, the publisher has launched a new Call of Duty-focused development studio known as “Beachhead,” through which it plans to build a digital platform for the franchise’s community, offer exclusive content and other services.

Skeptics wonder if it’s history repeating itself. Will Activision over saturate the market with CoD games as it did with Guitar Hero? Analysts acknowledge it’s possible, but think the company learned a lesson from 2009′s onslaught, when eight music games hit the market.

“I tend to believe they’re looking at it cautiously,” says Pidgeon.

While the loss of Guitar Hero is a sad one for gamers who don’t care about the bottom line, ultimately, say analysts, it was simply something that made good business sense.

“Mid-level titles are just getting killed in the marketplace,” says Eric Handler of MKM Partners. “Would you rather spend an extra $10 or $20 million on something that’s not going to be a hit or on a Call of Duty or World of Warcraft?”  (Source:Gamasutra)


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