游戏行业能从Netflix等流媒体平台学到什么

原作者：James Batchelor 译者：Willow Wu

对游戏行业来说，订阅已经不算什么新鲜东西了。从经典MMO游戏的包月付费到PlayStation Plus或Xbox Live Gold提供的多人游戏付费服务，玩家已经习惯了为玩游戏定期付费。

但这种模式在其它娱乐领域已经是主流了，看起来游戏行业似乎是正在奋力追赶。是的，PlayStation Now服务在2014年就推出了，但我们应该可以说Xbox Game Pass的兴起才真正引发了大家的思考：订阅模式要怎么才能在游戏领域发挥作用呢？

Netflix、Spotify、亚马逊Prime等平台已经证明这种模式在电视、电影和音乐领域都是颇有成效的，那么游戏公司在定制自己的订阅服务时有哪些经验教训可以借鉴呢？这就是我们近期在Changing Channels大会上的核心讨论话题之一。

来自Midia Research的资深分析师Karol Severin指出了多任务处理（multitasking）趋势的崛起，由此，小组们就先讨论起了订阅模式是如何改变消费者们参与娱乐的方式。如今，没有哪种娱乐形式是可以让用户长久留驻的，尤其是年轻群体，他们很可能会一边玩游戏一边跟朋友Facetime，旁边的笔记本上还放着Netflix的影片。

“游戏马拉松对我们来说这已经不算什么新模式了，但‘刷剧’（binge）在影视领域的兴起还是给我们增加了一点竞争压力，”Severin说。“它会导致参与度或者关注度下降，但游戏完全有能力适应多任务处理，可以说比音乐或某些视频服务更适合这种模式。像《堡垒之夜》这样的游戏就向我们表明了它不只是游戏，它本身就是一个娱乐场所。”

Severin提醒说随着多任务处理趋势的崛起扰乱了市场的平静，向刷剧模式转变是游戏行业今后需要注意的问题。

在家庭娱乐领域有着十年经验的Robert Price，他的上一份工作是在20世纪福克斯，现在他在网红营销中介Fourth Floor Creative工作，他表示如今订阅模式的兴起意味着消费者们在面对娱乐产品时，已经习惯于“无限的选择”了。

the Walking Dead(from gameanalytics)

人们现在能够很快地决定他们是否要继续在某个东西上投入时间，不管是电视剧还是Game Pass服务。既然有这么多的选择，Price认为快速浏览内容就成为了一种自然而然的行为，这就使得创作者必须要从一开始就抓住他们的眼球。Price继续说道，订阅模式改变了一切，包括人们对新内容的感知——尤其是跟流媒体结合的时候。

“影视行业在专属限时内容的基础上发展出了另一项业务，”他解释说。“而流媒体完全将它压过去了——因为这些平台的内容太多了，人们的价值观已经发生了改变。流媒体这种能够让人们快速尝试不同内容的功能对于游戏发行商来说，或许是一个将来值得思考的有趣问题。

他继续说道：“人们不一定能明白等待新内容这个过程的价值所在，他们只想马上得到它。在疫情背景下，人们的渴望肯定是更迫切了。”

在讨论中，大家也说到了订阅意味着现在电视中可以浏览更多的内容，包括以前可能不会委托传统平台制作的节目。在游戏中也可以看到类似的情况，微软通过收购Ninja Theory和Compulsion Games等工作室来扩充Game Pass内容库，产品介于独立和3A游戏之间。

Severin说电视中主流节目的定义已经发生了转变。传统上，这个标签只适用于受众面很广的内容，但订阅服务的兴起意味着 “小众就是新主流”。有些公司现在专注于为特定市场的受众提供针对性极强的服务，当这些受众在全球范围内浮现时，他们就可以把这些小众市场做大。

据观察，电视剧在订阅服务中的生存情况比传统平台环境更艰难。在以前，一部美剧为了实现广播联卖（指在广播网不经手的情况下，各电视台和广播电台直接获取电视和广播节目的播放权，游戏邦注）会增加到100集，让制作公司以更高的单集价格卖出授权和重播权。现在，如果他们没有获得足够的点播量，或者是因为期望值提高——无论是来自观众对剧集质量的期待还是演职人员对薪酬方面的期待——从而导致制作成本增加，就可能会被砍掉。

Severin认为这实际上是给游戏行业提供了一个机会——事实证明，游戏作为长期娱乐活动是具有很强的适应能力的。

“就比如说你想换种新模式，不再沿用第一、第二赛季的通行证设计，”他说。“做第三赛季的通行证活动并不需要更高的成本。跟影视剧完全不一样。纳入到订阅内容库的游戏或许可以拥有更长的生命周期。”

小组还说到了影视订阅服务如何利用知名节目和新节目来吸引人们的——无论是Netflix上的《老友记》，还是Disney+上那些消失了一段时间又重新出现的电影&电视剧。Price说这些家喻户晓的主流IP是打造受众面广泛、具有吸引力的内容的重要一环，而Severin则表示这是娱乐领域趋势泛化的标志。

“之前在音乐行业流行过的趋势，现在正在影视行业上演，未来又会在游戏行业掀起波澜——而且现在已经发生了，那就是盈利方式从内容获取/消费转变为粉丝经济。”他说。

“粉丝经济绝对是未来五年左右增长的关键，因为消费权限本身正往商品化方向发展。想要畅听所有音乐，你需要付9.99美元，想观看所有视频，你需要付14.99美元或者20美元或者其它什么价格。能抓住消费者的情感才能实现超级溢价。”

有了这么多的订阅服务——每个行业都有，更不用说其它娱乐领域了——我们有理由认为可能会出现消费疲劳，或者至少我们会开始看到订阅量的天花板。

但是，Midia Research的数据表明事实并非如此。Severin说据报告显示，2020年第二季度，19%的消费者订阅了三种以上的娱乐服务，高于去年同季度的13%。单看影视类服务的话，订阅一个以上视频服务的消费者从18%增加到了28%。

似乎没有什么能够阻止人们订阅更多服务，然而，不计其数的替代品也意味着没有什么可以阻止他们取消继续订阅。

“表现出你自己的独特之处是非常重要的，”Severin说。“目前来看，突围主要还是靠内容，而不是界面或者曝光率。但是曝光率真的是个令人头痛的问题，因为内容越多，你所得到娱乐体验就越少。就比如说你有Netflix账号，只有两个小时的时间来看东西，实际上就相当于你只有一小时四十分钟来看影片，因为你会花上20分钟的时间来思考要看什么，而你每个月还是付这么多钱。在我看来，如果这个问题不解决的话，可能会促成一种负面情绪。”

Priestley补充说：“围绕UI的讨论有很多。我知道有些公司正在考虑使用AI来观察用户的观看行为，他们喜欢看哪种内容。还有围绕着捆绑（不同的订阅服务和平台），以及是否存在能够让消费者为自己喜欢的内容付费，而不是为订阅付费这种业务实例的讨论。就比如说，可以购买某个节目的所有集数。

“流媒体服务的后端有这么多工作要做，各个内容提供商都在研究要为用户呈现什么样的精彩节目。有些公司把用户群看作是不同的部落，他们会按照他们所认为的你的喜好来提供内容，便于他们寻找、投放。有些平台不太擅长告知用户他们的平台更新了什么服务。所以我经常会错过新内容，没有注意到它们的存在，直到算法把它们顶上来了我才会看到，因为我的注意力会被其它东西所吸引。

Price指出随着越来越多订阅服务推出，曝光度的问题只会变得更加严峻。他表示预计到今年年底，好莱坞各大电影公司都会有自己的服务产品。

Severin强调说无论是哪种服务，界面对于订阅用户留存的影响会越来越重要。他说：“凡是可以移除摩擦——就比如必须要切换到别的App、窗口，或者额外点击什么——如果你可以让用户少点击两次，这会值好几百万美金。”

看看游戏订阅所带来的效益，Xbox近期宣称Game Pass拉动了订阅库中游戏在各个平台的销量。类似地，还有《火箭联盟》这个经典例子，成为PlayStation Plus限时会免游戏后大大提高了游戏的受欢迎程度，让Psyonix多年来都能够享受这笔交易所带来的前所未有的成功。

但这些都是例外吗？Xbox Game Pass带来的效应是暂时的吗？Price似乎就是这样认为的：“这种争论在先前大厂商把内容授权给Netflix平台的时候就出现了，大家认为这么做会提高这些内容的受欢迎程度。刚开始的时候确实有效，但时间长了以后就没什么帮助作用了。这种效应肯定会消失的。”

Severin指出涉及到订阅服务的成功或失败故事，我们最好采取观望态度，不要着急下定论。

“在这场转型过程中，不同的公司会提出不同的观点，”他说。“这是非常正常的，因为每家公司的收效都是略有不同的。当你抱着这种较为谨慎的态度去分析的时候，你就能明白Xbox为什么会强调这样的效应。如果你的业务是建立在跨多个行业和垂直领域的生态系统之上，你其实不必那么在意游戏单位的经济效益，因为你知道其它领域的收益也是非常值得挖掘的。

“另一方面，如果你们是类似于Take-Two这样的公司，不想推崇这种模式也是可以理解的，因为这有可能会削弱你的ARPU价值，而且你是一家纯粹的游戏公司，没有其它地方可以汲取这种价值。”

在这些相互矛盾的说法背后存在着一个关键点：订阅服务的兴起并不意味着买断制付费模式的消亡迫在眉睫。Price表示市场上还有足够多的空间让订阅服务、大制作游戏共同发展，这些游戏依然可以为开发、发行公司带来数以百万计的收益。“它们是可以共存的，”他说。“但随着时间的推移，这些售价60、70英镑的游戏你会买得更少，更多时候是在流媒体服务中享受游戏，这是不可避免的一种趋势。现在的情况似乎就是这样了。”

订阅服务对游戏行业的未来而言绝对是一个重要支柱。有了Xbox Game Pass的成功，以及EA、育碧这样的3A发行巨头开始试水，这场被人津津乐道的“游戏界Netflix之争”不太可能在短时间内结束。真正关键的问题在于这样做是否能够让整个行业都受益？当被问及订阅服务对影视业务是起到积极作用还是消极作用时，我们的讨论小组成员给出了不同的回答。

Priestly说这要取决于你问的对象是谁。Netflix肯定会说是积极的，但是影视制作公司会表示传统模式和订阅模式他们都会去迎合。从订阅数量来看，观众们显然也是同意Netflix的观点。

Price说订阅服务已经“彻底改变了行业”，这一切的发生之快着实令人惊讶：“电影行业的传统商业模式已经运行了80多年，而在短短6年之内它就被彻底颠覆了。人们消费的内容越来越多，订阅模式正在呈指数增长。流媒体服务何时会达到十亿用户？我想应该不会太远了。而从长远来看，它们会带来巨大的利润回报，这也是为什么Netflix的股价如此之高。

“对我来说，这是我们所生活的世界，也就是数字革命的必然结果，它最终会成为一项高收益业务。”

Severin总结道订阅将会不可避免地进一步影响整个行业。他建议，对于任何考虑试水这一业务的公司来说，现在正是探索的大好时机。

“当游戏行业向流媒体发展时，会有一些公司希望保持纯粹的传统模式，在一个逐渐衰弱的市场中继续经营能够带来收益的业务，这绝对没有错。”他说。“实际上，相比于进入一个不断增长的市场，你或许能在这里获得更多收益。

“但是，如果你想尝试为这个新世界和这些新的消费行为成长、壮大、建立新的业务，你在开始时首先就要考虑我上面所说的这一点，这比试图将新世界加以改造以便去适配你的旧基础设施更加轻松。而且这么做几乎不可能会成功。”

本文由游戏邦编译，转载请注明来源，或咨询微信zhengjintiao

Subscriptions are nothing new to the games industry. From the monthly fees for classic MMOs to the service charge for multiplayer games through PlayStation Plus or Xbox Live Gold, players are accustomed to making regular payments to access video games.

But in terms of subscribing to a library of content — a model that has come to dominate all other forms of entertainment — it can feel like the games industry is playing catch-up. Yes, PlayStation Now has been available since 2014, but it’s arguably been the rise of Xbox Game Pass that has really drawn attention to how this form of subscription can work in games.

Netflix, Spotify, Amazon Prime and others have already proven this model works in TV, film and music, so what lessons can games companies follow when defining their own subscription service? This was the question at the heart of a session during our recent Changing Channels conference.

The panel began by discussing how subscriptions have changed how consumers engage with entertainment, with Midia Research senior analyst Karol Severin pointing to the growing trend of multitasking. No single form of entertainment can hold a viewer’s attention anymore, he said, adding that it’s much more likely for young people in particular to be playing a game while on a FaceTime call to a friend and binge watching Netflix on a laptop to the side.

“Binge consumption in gaming — playing for longer sessions — is nothing new, but the fact it has arisen in video creates a bit of competitive pressure,” Severin said. “It’s either going to be taking away engagement or attention, but games are well positioned to accommodate for multi-tasking — arguably more so than music or certain video services. Games like Fortnite are showing us that they don’t just have to be games, they can be a whole entertainment venue in themselves.”

With multitasking disrupting the status quo, the analyst warned that the shift towards binge-watching is “something games will need to consider going forwards.”

Robert Price — who spent ten years in home entertainment, most recently at 20th Century Fox, and now works at influencer marketing agency Fourth Floor Creative — said the emergence of subscription services means consumers are now accustomed to “endless choice” when it comes to entertainment.

People now decide very quickly whether they want to continue spending time on something, whether it’s a TV series or a Game Pass title. Since there is so much content available, Price argued it’s “natural” for users to flick through content, making it more important for creators to grip them from the beginning. Subscriptions, Price continued, have “changed everything,” including the “perception of what new is” — especially when combined with streaming.

“The film and TV industries built a business based on the exclusive windowing of content,” he explained. “What streaming has done has taken that away — because there’s so much new content, the perception of that value has changed. That’s something that may be interesting for games publishers to think about going forward: that ability streaming gives people to try different things very quickly.

He continued: “People don’t necessarily see the value of waiting for new content; they want to get it straight away. That process has certainly been accelerated with the pandemic.”

The panel also noted that subscriptions mean a “broader sweep of content” is now being made in television, including shows that might not have previously been commissioned for traditional platforms. Parallels can be seen in games, with Microsoft snapping up studios like Ninja Theory and Compulsion Games to bulk up its Game Pass library with products somewhere between indie and AAA.

Severin said there has been a shift in what is defined as mainstream programming in TV. Traditionally, this label only applied to content targeting a wide audience, but the rise of subscriptions services means that “niche is the new mainstream.” Companies are now focusing on “super serving” particular audiences in certain markets, and as these emerge around the world, they can “make a mass out of these niches.”

It was observed that TV series aren’t surviving as long in subscriptions services as they did on traditional platforms. Historically, a US show would push forward to 100 episodes in order to achieve syndication, allowing production firms to sell for licensing and re-runs at a higher per-episode price. Now they are canned after a couple of seasons if they don’t gain traction, or if production is becoming too expensive as expectations — both from the audience on quality and cast on pay — increase.

Severin argued this actually presents an opportunity for games, which have proven to be adaptable as long-term sources of entertainment.

“Let’s say you’re going to break with a season one and season two pass of a game,” he says. “To make a season three pass doesn’t need to get more expensive. It’s not going to be the same jump an actor or actress will require. There may be an opportunity for games to sustain longer shelf life of the assets they’re going to be driving into subscription services.”

The panel also noted how TV and film subscription services are turning to well-known shows as much as new ones to draw people in, whether it’s Friends on Netflix or all the long-absent shows resurfacing on Disney+. Price said mainstream IP that people recognise is a big part of creating a broad span of appealing content, while Severin indicated this was a sign of a wider trend in entertainment.

“There is a really big shift that has happened in music, is happening in TV, and will happen in games — and has already — and that’s the shift of monetising the consumption and access to content to monetising the actual fandom,” he said.

“Monetising fandom is absolutely key to driving growth over the next half a decade or so, as access to consumption is becoming commoditised. Consumers are learning that the value of access to all music is $9.99, and the value of access to all videos is $14.99 or $20 or whatever it might be. The super premium you’re only going to reach if you’re going to be able to tap into consumers’ emotions.”

With so many subscriptions services available — in each industry, let alone across the full breadth of entertainment — it’s reasonable to assume there might be consumer fatigue, or at least that we’re starting to see the limits of how many subscriptions people will sign up to.

However, Midia Research data shows this is not the case. Severin reported that in Q2 2020, 19% of consumers were paying for three or more entertainment subscriptions — up from 13% for the same quarter in 2019. Looking at video alone, the number of people who subscribed to more than one video service was up from 18% to 28%.

There’s seemingly nothing stopping people from signing up for more services, then, but the abundance of alternatives also means there’s nothing to stop them cancelling their subscription.

“It’s really important to be able to distinguish [yourself] on something,” said Severin. “At the moment it’s being distinguished by content, rather than interface and discovery. [But] discoverability is a really big issue, because the more content there is, the less you get entertained. If you only have Netflix and only have two hours to watch stuff, you now only have one hour and forty minutes because you spend twenty minutes deciding what to watch and you’re still paying the same price per month. To me, that’s potentially going to grow into a negative sentiment if it’s not addressed.”

Priestley added: “There’s a lot of discussion around the UI. I know some companies are looking at using AI to look at how the viewer watches, what bits the viewer watches. There’s also discussions around bundling [different subscriptions and platforms together], and around whether there is actually a business case for services to let consumers not pay for a subscription but pay for the content they want to watch. For example, all seasons of one particular show.

“There’s such a lot of work going into the back end of streaming services, with various vendors all working on what’s being served to the user. Some companies [define users] as tribes, and they will serve you what they think your tribe will want to watch in order to make it easier for them to find… Some of the platforms aren’t great at telling you what’s new on their service. So I will often miss something, not realising it’s there, and I won’t see it until the algorithm serves it up because I watched something else.”

Price noted that discoverability will become even more important as an issue with the more subscription services that launch. As an example, he pointed to the fact that every major Hollywood studio is expected to have its own offering by the end of the year.

Severin emphasised that interface will play an increasingly vital role in retaining subscribers on any service, adding: “Anything that can remove friction like having to switch app or window or click something else — if you can remove two clicks from a process, that’s worth many, many millions of dollars.”

Looking at the effect of subscriptions in games specifically, Xbox has recently claimed that Game Pass is actually driving sales of titles included in its library across all platforms. Similarly, there’s the older example of Rocket League, which rose to popularity by being offered temporarily as a free game to PlayStation Plus subscribers — a deal that catapulted Psyonix to the level of success it has enjoyed over the years.

But are these exceptions to the rule? Is the Xbox Game Pass effect temporary while the excitement of such a service is still fresh? Price certainly seemed to think so: “That argument was made when content was licensed by major producers to Netflix at the start — that it would help overall sales of that content. Initially it did, a bit, but over time it didn’t. That effect definitely dissipated.”

Severin noted that stories of success or indeed failure when it comes to be subscriptions services need to be taken with a pinch of salt.

“There are going to be a lot of companies driving a lot of different narratives as this transformation transpires,” he said. “That’s very natural because every company has a slightly different endgame. When you look at it that way, it makes sense that Xbox would push that narrative. If your business is built on an ecosystem play across many industries and verticals, you don’t really have to care as much about the games unit economics because you know you can drive value elsewhere.

“On the other hand, if you’re somebody like Take-Two, for example, it makes sense that you wouldn’t want to push that narrative because it’s potentially going to dilute your ARPU, and because you’re purely a games company, there is nowhere else to draw that value from.”

Behind these conflicting narratives lies a key point: the rise of subscription services does not mean the premium model’s demise is imminent. Price suggested there is plenty of room on the market for both subscription services and the $60 blockbuster games that continue to sell in millions. “They can co-exist,” he said. “Inevitably over time, you’re going to have less of the £60, £70 games and more on streaming. But that’s sort of the case already.”

Subscription services are undoubtedly a key pillar in the future of the games industry. With the success of Xbox Game Pass, and even AAA publishers like EA and Ubisoft trying their hand, it’s unlikely the battle to be the oft-touted “Netflix for games” is going to end any time soon. The real question is whether this will benefit the industry overall. When asked if subscriptions have bolstered or harmed the TV and film business, our panelists offered a slightly mixed response.

Priestly argued it depends on who you ask. Netflix will naturally say it’s been beneficial, while production companies will say they are still catering to both. Viewers clearly approve given the increased usage of such services.

Price said subscriptions have “changed the industry beyond all recognition” and is amazed at how quickly this has happened: “The business models that exist in film have been in place for 80-odd years and were blown apart in six. But people are consuming more content, the models are growing exponentially. When will the streaming services hit a billion subscribers? I can’t see it being too far away. And in the long term, they’ll deliver huge financial returns which is why you see Netflix’s share price so high.

“For me, this was an inevitable consequence of the world we live in, the digital revolution, and it will end up being highly profitable.”

Severin concluded that it is inevitable subscriptions will further disrupt the industry and suggested that, for any companies considering working on something disruptive, now would be a really good time to explore this.

“As we progress towards streaming in gaming, there will be companies that want to stay purely in their traditional model, and there is absolutely nothing wrong in running a profitable business in a declining market,” he said. “You can actually sometimes be more profitable than you would be in a growing market.

“But if you’re going to try to grow, expand and build for this new world and for these new consumer behaviours. It’s easier to start building with that in mind first than trying to potentially take the new world and retrofit it into your old infrastructure. That almost never works.”

(source:gamesindustry.biz )