App Annie: 2020年移动应用&手游发展趋势的5大预测

原作者：Dean Takahashi 译者：Willow Wu

移动数据研究公司App Annie收集了大量关于移动设备、应用和游戏的数据。他们对即将到来的一年做出了五大预测。

App Annie认为2019年对移动行业来说是具有里程碑意义的一年，今年前三个季度的消费额较上年同期增长20%。单第三季度App Store和Google Play就产生了230亿美元的收益，相比去年同期的近200亿美元又刷新了记录。

2019年App Store和Google Play的全球消费额预计为900亿美元(不包括第三方安卓应用商店)，而2020年预计还会大幅度增长，将达到1050亿美元。订阅服务将成为拉动增长的主力军，游戏成为这一盈利趋势的最新垂直市场。

除了应用商店，移动广告开销的份额将会继续扩大。2019年移动广告的消费额是1900亿美元，2020年预计会上升到2400亿美元。

以下是App Annie认为能够帮助到移动应用&游戏开发者、发行商的5个趋势预测：

Last Day on Earth: Survival(from pockegtgamer.biz)

1.流媒体战争将会在2020年进一步升级

2020年，App Annie预计全球消费者将花费6740亿小时在安卓手机的娱乐、视频播放和编辑类产品上。2019年预计的时长是5580亿小时。已经存在的平台比如YouTube和Netflix是安卓用户的主要消遣去处，但新平台也渴望从这个飞速增长的市场中分一杯羹。

近期上线的Disney+意味着资金雄厚的竞争对手之一进入了一个原本就拥挤的市场。每月付费7美元，最多容许四款设备同时观看，App Annie认为Disney+将成为迪士尼现有流媒体产品(游戏邦注包括Hulu和ESPN)的有力补充。

尽管Disney+所包含的影视资源并不算多——500部电影和7000集电视剧集——但用户能观看迪士尼旗下众多深受观众喜爱的系列作品，比如《辛普森一家》《星球大战》和漫威宇宙系列。此外，迪士尼也在投资新的原创内容，利用其热门IP来创作基于《星球大战》宇宙的系列剧集《曼达洛人》。强势IP能够点燃消费者的热情，就比如9月发行的《马里奥赛车巡回赛》。

除了强势的IP，Disney+和其它竞争对手比如Apple TV+、HBO Max(AT&T)和Peacock(Comcast)需要开发新鲜、有吸引力的系列内容来培养长期留存的观众。这可以通过开发原创剧集或者革新内容模式来实现，就比如Netflix的《黑镜：潘达斯奈基》。像迪斯尼和Verizon所做的那样，通过合作伙伴关系提供流媒体服务，将有助于促成用户形成消费习惯，让自己的平台在市场中脱颖而出。

社交媒体上也是硝烟弥漫，Z世代的空闲时间基本都是在这里度过的。像抖音、Snapchat、Instagram这样的平台模糊了社交媒体与娱乐应用之间的界线，结果就是让用户时间争夺战变得更白热化。Twitch，传统意义上来说是一个游戏直播平台，但它也拓展了其它形式的内容。Just Chatting就是一个纯聊天的地方，注重的是直播者与用户的互动而不是游戏，这是2019年上半年Twitch第三受欢迎的频道。

从短期来看，App Annie预计随着消费者试用这些新服务，新的流媒体服务将会推动下载量、使用率和收入的增长。另外，新的订阅套餐也会促成新的合作伙伴。为了保持竞争力，流媒体需要识别哪些公司是长期威胁，哪些公司只是在消耗广告预算。App Annie建议发行商们跟踪留存率、投入时间以及活跃用户来更进一步地分析对手，评估他们的服务是不是受到了大众的喜爱。

2.Apple Arcade和Google Play Pass将为消费者带来新式游戏，为发行商带来新的收入来源

无论是哪个移动领域，最早采用新技术的一般都是游戏发行商，这些新特色和盈利模式随后会扩展到其它垂直领域。而订阅正好相反。随着手游收益占据游戏全球总收益的一半以上，订阅模式将会进一步增加玩家粘性，创造更好的生命周期总价值（LTV）。

这一趋势在整个移动领域快速崛起。从去年9月至今年9月，美国用户在App Store和Google Play上非游戏类应用消费最高的前100名中，超过95%都是通过内购直接提供订阅服务。除此之外，2020年全球玩家的游戏开销预计将会超过750亿美元。

开通订阅服务，消费者们就可以以一个固定的价格享受到更多更丰富的内容——这是Z世代非常喜欢的模式。订阅服务也能为那些无法借助内购或者广告盈利模式成功的游戏提供新的机会。

订阅Apple Arcade的用户能够接触到订阅专属的游戏，而Google Play Pass的订阅内容则是已经存在于Google Play商店的游戏。对Apple Arcade平台的开发者来说，这意味着他们可以摆脱F2P的束缚，自由地设计游戏。而Google Play Pass的游戏，除了现有内购或应用内广告之外，游戏还可以找到新的收入来源，从而获得新生。

这些订阅服务特别适合家庭使用。在这种策展环境下，你只需要支付一笔固定的费用就能解锁这里的所有东西，对那些希望孩子减少内购行为的父母非常有吸引力。对于那些已经定位为玩家的人也是如此，每个月付一定的费用就有源源不断的高水准创新游戏。

Apple Arcade和Google Play Pass都是现有应用商店模式的重要补充。不管最初的表现如何，这些订阅服务将在手游长期战略中扮演关键角色，为进一步扩大、强化手游生态系统提供机会。然而，我们要让消费者摆脱手游可以免费下载的惯性思维，这并不容易。为了解决这一问题，发行商需要与苹果和谷歌合作，普及游戏订阅服务的价值。

3. 5G是下一个战场，第一受益者是玩家

虽说围绕5G最热的话题还是速度的提升，但真正让玩家和发行商兴奋不已的则是低延迟。在线多人core类手游需要更好的无线连接技术。在《使命召唤手游》发行的第一个月，也就是今年十月，游戏登顶了全球下载榜单的榜首，而《绝地求生》《Free Fire》在发行一年多后依然能够排在第五、第六的位置。

下载榜前十中，多人core类手游玩家投入的时间最多。虽然5G仍处于起步阶段，但电信运营商正努力在2020年扩大覆盖范围，而游戏可能是市场验证的第一个测试目标。

虽然游戏可能是最先使用5G的领域，但未来的发展可不止于此。Ericsson Mobility在2019年的报告中预测道2024年，全球有34%移动流量来自5G，64%的人将会用上5G技术。接入更快的5G网络和投入更多兼容5G设备，将简化现有的移动通道，进一步巩固移动在我们日常生活中的地位。

App Annie认为，在5G广泛应用于为产业提供支持之前——比如通过研发无人驾驶汽车、联网设备或物联网(IoT)来支持农业和物流等行业——它的真正潜力最初会由游戏发行商和玩家来证明。发行商现在就应该采取行动，确保应用的后续版本能够有效利用更快的5G连接技术，同时研究其它应用的版本更新，看看哪些竞争对手也在做同样的事。

4.自走棋游戏将会获得增长

自走棋（Auto Battlers）在最初是Dota的一个mod，之后很快在Steam上流行起来。截至2019年11月，我们可以看到主流游戏开发商发行了不少衍生手游，包括 《刀塔霸业》 (Valve)、《自走棋手游》(龙渊网络/巨鸟多多)和《Chess Rush》(腾讯)。

自走棋游戏非常适合移动设备——游戏模式简单，不需要像鼠标和键盘精确操作——但开发者仍有机会进一步优化体验，让这类游戏吸引到更广泛的玩家。

电竞粉丝已经对这类游戏产生了兴趣，第一届自走棋国际邀请赛提供了100万美元的奖金池，这将鼓励更多人接纳自走棋手游化，投入更多时间。对于一个2019年才诞生的游戏类型来说，这已经非常厉害了。

正如King与App Annie所讨论的那样，玩家对混合型游戏并不排斥，也就是在一个游戏中出现来自不同游戏类型的机制、设计元素。App Annie的跨应用使用行为数据帮助King发现了这些机会。2020年，我们期待自走棋手游的进一步优化。自走棋游戏的崛起让我们注意到这样一个事实：流行游戏越来越向“大杂烩”方向发展，即包含多类型游戏的机制。在前进的道路上，发行商需要有的更宽广的眼界，不能局限于现有的应用商店的游戏分类，还要利用数据创造能够吸引消费者的新游戏。

5.PWA成为消费者体验中的重要一环

渐进式网页应用（Progressive web app，PWA) 是外观和感觉都像APP的移动网站，它确保了用户体验的流畅，而且不需要用户另外下载APP。

PWAs可以通过简化用户体验来提升转化率。这非常重要，因为它能让用户试用/使用一个简化版的APP，也可以避免在网页端浏览的一些麻烦。速度方面也有优势，PWAs的加载速度比网站更快。在网络不太发达的地区，这一点就尤为重要。App Annie发现在这些市场中，精简版的应用跟完整版的一样受欢迎。就拿印度来说，2019年上半年Facebook Lite的下载量只跟Facebook差10%。

虽说对于那些需要登录才能充分利用功能（比如银行相关功能、通讯）的APP来说，PWAs的价值通常要低一些，但在旅游、零售和新闻等垂直领域，它们是非常值得一用的，用户可以在投入更多之前先测试一下。就比如说Trivago，一个酒店预订APP，它的PWA就很成功，相比用移动网站浏览的用户，使用PWA的用户粘性增加了150%。

PWAs在网页和APP之间架起了一座桥梁。虽说让用户去下载APP对于确保最佳的用户体验和用户留存率仍然很关键，但他们与品牌首次接触很可能是发生在其它地方（比如网页）。此外，PWAs的发行和功能都要遵循应用商店的规则和浏览器功能。这意味着本地应用仍应该是移动设备的主要关注对象。

通过在每个阶段提供无缝的用户体验，并在移动网络和应用策略中起到衔接作用，PWAs将有助于拓宽销售漏斗的顶部，防止用户在向应用程序过渡时退出。App Annie表示品牌——尤其是那些从事新闻资讯、旅游、和零售业的，它们的快速加载、在网络条件相对较差地方的可用性非常重要——应该考虑将PWAs作为用户获取渠道之一。

本文由游戏邦编译，转载请注明来源，或咨询微信zhengjintiao

App Annie collects a lot of data on mobile devices, apps, and games. And so the mobile insights and analytics company has five predictions for the year ahead in mobile.

The company said that 2019 was a landmark year for mobile, with 20% year-over-year growth in consumer spending in the first three quarters of the year — including a record $23 billion from the iOS App Store and Google Play combined in the third quarter of 2019 alone, compared to nearly $20 billion a year ago.

2020 is set to be even bigger, with global consumer spend from iOS and Google Play combined hitting $105 billion (excluding third-party Android stores), compared to $90 billion expected for 2019. Subscription services will drive much of this growth, with games being the newest vertical to capitalize on this monetization trend.

Outside of the app stores, mobile ad spending will represent an even larger portion of the market. Global mobile ad spending will reach $240 billion in 2020, up from $190 billion in 2019.

Here are the five predictions for 2020 that App Annie believes will help mobile app and game publishers and developers.

1. The streaming wars will heat up in 2020 as consumers spend 674 billion hours on mobile
In 2020, App Annie is expecting consumers will spend 674 billion hours in the entertainment and video player and editor categories worldwide on Android phones. This is up from an expected 558 billion hours in 2019. Established players like YouTube and Netflix accounted for the vast majority of time spent on Android phones, but newer entrants are eager to get a piece of this growing pie.

The recent launch of Disney+ represents just one of the many well-funded competitors entering an already crowded space. At a price point of $7 per month, which includes the ability to have up to 4 simultaneous streams, Disney+ will be a strong addition to Disney’s stable of streaming offerings that already includes Hulu and ESPN, App Annie said.

Although Disney+’s content library is relatively small — 500 movies and 7,000 individual TV episodes — it includes access to established fan favorites from its other entities, including The Simpsons, Star Wars, and the Marvel Cinematic Universe. Further, Disney is investing in new, original content by leveraging its popular intellectual property (IP) to create the Star Wars-based series, The Mandalorian. Strong IP can generate excitement among consumers. This was noteworthy in the case of the wildly successful Mario Kart Tour launch in September 2019.

Despite its strong properties, Disney+, along with other competitors like Apple TV+, HBO Max (AT&T) and Peacock (Comcast), will need to establish innovative and desired series to cultivate viewing habits. This can be done through original series or innovative content formats — like Netflix did with Black Mirror: Bandersnatch. Bundling services through partnerships, as Disney and Verizon have done, will help establish consumption habits that separate the winners from the losers.

Competition also comes from social media, where Gen Z goes to fill spare time and find entertaining content. Social apps like TikTok, Snapchat and Instagram are blurring the lines between social media and entertainment, resulting in more competition for consumers’ time. Twitch — traditionally a video game live-streaming platform — has also branched out into other forms of content. The “Just Chatting” genre, which focuses on streamers interacting with their audience rather than gaming, was the 3rd most popular channel by total hours watched on Twitch in the first half of 2019.

In the short term, App Annie expects new streaming services to drive growth in downloads, usage and revenue as consumers trial these new services. Further, we expect new partnerships to emerge to form new subscription bundles. To stay competitive in this space, streaming services will need to identify which competitors are long-term threats versus which are simply burning through advertising budgets. App Annie recommend publishers track retention rates, time spent, and active users to gain deeper insight into whether competitors’ services are catching on.

2. Apple Arcade and Google Play Pass will drive innovative games for consumers and new revenue streams for publishers

Game publishers are usually the early adopters in all aspects of mobile, with new features and monetization models that then spread to other verticals. With subscriptions, it’s the reverse. As spending on mobile now accounts for over 50% of all gaming revenue in the global games market, subscriptions will drive deeper engagement and greater customer lifetime value (LTV).

This trend is picking up in mobile in general. During the 12 months ending September 2019, over 95% of the top 100 non-gaming apps by consumer spend on iOS App Store and Google Play combined in the U.S. offered subscription services directly through in-app purchases. In addition, worldwide consumer spend on games is expected to surpass $75 billion in 2020.

By paying for subscription services, consumers gain access to a wider variety of content and services for a fixed fee — something that Gen Z consumers are particularly fond of. Subscription services will also create opportunities for games that haven’t found success with in-app purchase or advertising monetization models.

Apple Arcade offers a subscription to a collection of exclusive games at a fixed-fee; however, Google Play Pass provides a subscription to games that are otherwise live on the Google Play store. For Apple Arcade, this means developers are free to design new game mechanics without the constraint of integrating free-to-play dynamics. For Google Play Pass, existing games could get a second wind by finding new revenue streams beyond their existing in-app purchases or in-app advertising.

These subscription services will work particularly well for families. A curated environment where everything is included for one flat price will be a draw for parents looking to reduce their children’s requests for in-app-purchases. This also has potential to resonate with those who already identify as gamers by providing continuous access to innovative, well-designed games for one price.

Both Apple Arcade and Google Play Pass will be important complements to their existing app store models. Regardless of initial performance, these subscription services will play key roles in long-term mobile gaming strategy — providing the opportunity to further strengthen the broader mobile gaming ecosystem. However, it will be challenging to get consumers out of the mindset of expecting all games on mobile to be free to download. To combat this, publishers will need to work alongside iOS and Google Play to communicate the value of game subscription services.

3. 5G is the next battleground, and gamers will be first to reap the rewards

While speed has been the main talking point around 5G, it’s the low latency that excites gamers and publishers alike. Demand exists for mobile online multiplayer core games that rely on better wireless connections. In October 2019, Call of Duty: Mobile was the top ranked game by global downloads across iOS and Google Play in its first month of release, while PUBG Mobile, and Free Fire continued to rank 5th and 6th respectively by downloads, more than a year after their initial launches.

Among the top 10 games by downloads in October 2019, core multiplayer online games also had the most time spent user. 5G is still in its infancy, but telcos are moving to expand coverage in 2020, and gaming is likely to be the first test of market validation.

While gaming may be the frontrunner for leveraging 5G, the possibilities don’t stop there. The 2019 Ericsson Mobility report predicts that by 2024, 34% of all global mobile traffic will be on 5G, and 64% of the world’s population will have 5G coverage. Increased access to a faster 5G network and 5G compatible devices will streamline existing mobile pathways, further entrenching mobile in our daily life.

App Annie expects 5G’s true potential to be initially legitimized by game publishers and gamers — the early adopters of the mobile economy — before expanding to support industrial applications like agriculture and logistics through the development of driverless cars and connected devices or the internet of things (IoT). Publishers should act now to ensure future versions of their apps can take advantage of faster 5G connections, while looking into version updates to see which of their competitors are doing the same, App Annie said.

4. The auto battler game genre Is primed for growth

Auto Battlers began life as a modification of Dota (Defense of the Ancients) that quickly grew in popularity on Steam. As of November 2019, numerous mobile versions are available from some of the biggest gaming developers, including Dota Underlords (Valve), Auto Chess:Origin (Dragonest Game/Drodo) and Chess Rush (Tencent).

The Auto Battler genre lends itself to mobile — the game format is simple and doesn’t require the precision of a mouse and keyboard — but developers still have opportunities to further optimize the experience and make this genre attractive for a wider range of players.

The genre has already become of interest to eSports fans, with the first Auto Chess Invitational offering a $1 million prize pool, which will support adoption on mobile, and growing time spent per user on mobile. This is impressive for a genre that only started in January 2019.

As King discussed with App Annie, players are open to playing hybrid games that draw on different mechanics and design elements from across genres. App Annie’s cross-app usage data helped King identify these opportunities. In 2020, expect to see further optimization of the Auto Battler genre for mobile. The rise of Auto Battlers calls attention to the fact that popular games are increasingly drawing on mechanics from multiple genres. Moving forward, publishers need to look beyond existing app store game classifications, and leverage data to create new games that grab consumers attention.

5. Progressive web apps will become an important link in the consumer journey

Progressive web apps (PWAs) are mobile websites that look and feel like apps — ensuring a smooth user experience — without requiring users to immediately take the extra step of downloading an app.

PWAs can help increase conversions by simplifying the user experience. This is particularly important as it allows users to trial or use a more limited version of an app with less friction than a mobile website. It also has the added benefit of speed. PWAs have faster loading times than websites. This is particularly valuable where connectivity is poor and in developing markets where App Annie sees the lite version of an app has similar levels of popularity as the full one. In India, for example, Facebook Lite had nearly 90% of the downloads of Facebook in H1 2019.

While PWAs are generally less valuable for apps that require sign-in to leverage full functionality (e.g banking and communication), they will be a valuable option for verticals such as travel, retail and news — where users can test an experience before committing further. For example, Trivago, a hotel booking app, has found success with PWAs, seeing a 150% increase in engagement among those who used the PWA versus the mobile site.

PWAs form a bridge between mobile web and app experiences. While converting users to download your app is still important to ensure optimal consumer experience and retention, their first encounter with the brand will likely happen elsewhere. In addition, distribution and functionality of PWAs are subject to guidelines of app stores and browser functionality. This means that native apps should still be the primary focus on mobile.

PWAs will help widen the top of the funnel and prevent consumers from dropping out as you transition users towards your app, by providing a seamless user experience at every stage and acting as a bridge in your mobile web and app strategy. Brands — especially those in the news, retail and travel sectors where quick loading and availability in low connectivity environments are important — should look to include PWAs in their customer acquisition funnel, App Annie said.

（source：venyurebeat.com）