开发者探讨为什么电子游戏行业逐渐抛弃了好莱坞模式

原作者：Tien Tzuo 译者：Willow Wu

在不久之前，那些大制作的游戏一般会像好莱坞大片那样宣传销售：华丽的预告片、留言板炒作、影迷提前放映会、最后是成败攸关的发行日期。早期销量就能决定产品是《侠盗猎车手5》这样的大热门还是《变形金刚：暗焰崛起》这样的口碑扑街之作。

但后来有意思的事发生了。这些游戏不怎么做前期宣传了，就跟乐坛天后碧昂丝发新专辑一样。就比如说，去年二月的《Apex英雄》在发行前没有任何消息，宣布即上线，然而游戏发行后8小时就吸引了超过100万的玩家。在第一个月，游戏获得了5000万玩家以及9200万美元的收益。

游戏即服务，为游戏服务

传统游戏开发商和分销商开始追赶这个潮流了。他们不再把关注全部聚焦在游戏主机或者单个游戏的销量上，而是越来越多地关注如何通过持续的服务来获得、留住用户，也就是
游戏即服务(Games as a service，GaaS)这个理念。而且这一理念本身也在变化：不再局限于在游戏内提供服务，而是在服务中提供游戏。

Home Screen（from gamasutra.com）

看看最近几大公司的消息——微软云游戏服务的新项目Project xCloud；谷歌即将到来的串流游戏平台Stadia；Nvidia的新云游戏服务GeForce Now。

变化的不仅仅是游戏产品，整个行业的商业模式也在发生转变。如今不再是噱头十足的好莱坞式预告+决定产品生死的首周末销量，而是通过订阅服务创造稳定经常性的收入，产生与亚马逊Prime会员一样的锁定效应（lock-in effect）。举个例子，有些游戏的扩展包已经成为“赛季通行证”，其中包括大量的免费内容，由此来确保玩家的游戏粘性。而体育游戏的套路基本上都是不断收集新球员，就比如FIFA的Ultimate Team模式。

每周更新

还有另外一件有趣的事：现在的很多游戏不再是以年为单位更新了，他们可以每周都更新。电子游戏不再按照独立产品的模式开发、销售，它们逐渐转向服务模式，伴随着持续更新和良性的反馈循环。

就比如《堡垒之夜》，不断推出一些有趣的新招数，比如巨型粉色机器人和Marshmello音乐节。比起好莱坞大片模式，这种游戏开发方式更倾向于以订阅为基础的软件即服务（Software-as-a-Service，SaaS）模式。玩过的人都知道，《堡垒之夜》并没有年度更新，它是以季节为单位的，差不多是十周更新一次。这样开发者能提供更多叙事内容，吸引更多玩家。

从Eric Ries的《精益创业》从获得启发，Epic Games通过实验、验证性学习和迭代逐渐缩短了产品开发周期。除此之外，他们还创造了一个良性的反馈循环，利用用户的反馈优化产品开发。这其实是“《堡垒之夜》即服务（Fortnite-as-a-Service）”。然而，随着Epic给开发人员施加的压力越来越大，要求他们满足新的需求，员工的抵触情绪也逐渐显露了出来（为了维持《堡垒之夜》的强劲势头，开发团队长时间加班，再加上管理层决策不断变动，态度强硬，员工的工作氛围非常压抑、艰苦，游戏邦注）。因此，如何制定可持续的更新计划将对行业的发展至关重要。

Unity Technologies是反映模式转变的另一个例子。Unity是世界上最受欢迎的开发平台之一，全球一半以上的游戏都使用了Unity引擎，每年还有不少电影也应用了Unity的技术。几年前，Unity为了规避“早期销量决定产品成败”模式所带来的风险，他们决定追寻一个能够获得经常性收入的商业模式。

从永久授权到订阅的转变不仅是财务上的需要，也是一种创造性的转变。“在当今的环境下，我们不可能因为软件大翻新就把用户搁置一年，”Unity联合创始人Joachim Ante在博客中写道。“我们认为把这些新特性全部做完，然后一次性发行，这对Unity开发者来说并不好。转向订阅模式后，我们会每周持续更新，让Unity通过一个渐进性的过程变得更好。一个特性做完后，我们就会发行。如果没有达到理想状态，我们会等下一次。为了给用户提供一个稳定、好用的平台，转向订阅模式是必要的。”

订阅的优势

我们从中又看到了SaaS理念。大多数SaaS公司每月都会更新产品，而不是像许多体育类游戏系列那样年度大更新。确实，这个速度有时会让人觉得挺苛刻，但订阅模式实际上为想法和创意提供了更多的空间，因为开发人员并没有被束缚在年度更新的内容框架之内，否则他们要做出许多艰难的决定：该砍掉哪些内容，该保留哪些内容。

“通过订阅模式，我们可以知道哪些游戏是最受欢迎的，游戏中的哪些部分是玩家最喜欢玩的，”EA高级副总裁Mike Blank在最近的E3大会上说道。“根据这些信息，我们可以尝试着定制一个更贴合玩家需求的产品。”

从订阅模式中受益的不只是开发团队——游戏捆绑包订阅也鼓励玩家进一步探索、发挥创造力。国际数据公司（IDC）的研究总监Lewis Ward近期谈到：“我们的调查显示订阅游戏捆绑包的用户会更倾向于尝试他们原本不会玩的游戏。所以对于发行商来说，好消息就是订阅者们现在更有可能去主动接触他们的产品了，因为这些游戏在捆绑包里几乎可以算是免费的。坏消息是如果你抓不住这些近在咫尺的用户，他们会更干脆地抛弃你的游戏。”

这就是订阅模式的吸引力和挑战性。较低的用户获取成本意味着无论是哪种服务，你都能得到一个可观的订阅量。但是要抓住机遇，你就得不断给他们呈现惊喜。

游戏公司在尝试模仿Netflix——你看看微软Xbox Game Pass，他们的目标是成为电子游戏版的Netflix。虽然大家都喜欢热门大作，但当务之急是将它的热度转化为订阅收入的增长。游戏公司以及Netflix可以提升的地方就是继续推动飞轮，形成一个良性循环——更多玩家参与能够促成更好的服务，然后继续吸引更多玩家。Netflix或许应该思考如何才能留住像《老友记》《办公室》这样的经典必看剧集，这对它们的用户留存策略至关重要。

总结
简而言之，面对新的竞争，游戏公司——尤其是传统游戏主机制造商和分销商——正在想方设法维持自己的地位。索尼PlayStation现在有大约3640万订阅者，Microsoft Live有6400万，而Nintendo Switch Online现在的订阅人数也超过了1000万。他们现在不再从“卖游戏”的角度去思考战略，而是如何获取、留存订阅者。

未来的云游戏系统——例如谷歌的Stadia和微软Project xCloud——只会加速“游戏即服务”的趋势发展，能够让玩家实现游戏串流，就像是在Netflix或者YouTube上看视频一样。想想看，Stadia和xCloud正在颠覆传统游戏玩法，让人们可以直接在手机或电脑上大制作游戏。换句话说，你可以不用借助过时主机就能玩到主机质量级别的游戏。

对游戏公司来说，这让他们看到了未开发的收入来源。对消费者来说，这是订阅服务带来的另一个关键好处——我们得到想要的游戏体验，又不必面对产品计划性淘汰所带来的烦恼。我们提取了产品中的服务，如果它能迎合用户的需求、提供新式体验，我们就会留下来。

我不认为大制作游戏会很快摆脱当前的发行方式，营销部门的人太喜欢它们了。但是如果一个游戏工作室想要长期发展下去、不被玩家遗忘，那么他们就必须制定某种订阅策略，每个月给用户提供新东西。

本文由游戏邦编译，转载请注明来源，或咨询微信zhengjintiao

Not that long ago, big video games used to get sold like big movies: a flashy trailer, lots of messageboard hype, some fan conference sneak previews, and then a big make-or-break release date. Those early sales numbers determined whether something was a big hit like Grand Theft Auto V, or a big flop like Transformers: Rise of the Dark Spark.

But then a funny thing happened. Big games just started showing up without much hype or promotion, like a new Beyonce album. For example, EA’s Apex Legends came completely unannounced last February and had more than a million unique players just eight hours after its launch. In its first month, the game had attracted 50 million players and earned $92 million in revenue.

Games as a service, services for games

Traditional game manufacturers and distributors are beginning to catch on. They’re no longer solely focused on the number of game consoles or individual games sold, but increasingly how they can acquire and retain customers through ongoing services: Games-as-a-service (GaaS). And even GaaS is changing beyond single games providing services within themselves, toward services providing games.

Just look at the recent announcements from the big players — Project xCloud, Microsoft’s new cloud gaming service; Stadia, Google’s forthcoming cloud-based gaming platform that allows you to play games instantly across devices; and GeForce Now, Nvidia’s new game streaming service.

It’s not just that video games are changing — their entire business model is changing as well. Instead of flashy Hollywood-style premieres and boom-or-bust opening weekend sales, the business model of today’s games is built around generating a stable base of recurring revenue through subscription services, creating the same lock-in effect as an Amazon Prime membership. For example, the occasional expansion pack has become the “season pass” includes a ton of free post-launch content to keep gamers continually engaged, while sports games have become almost entirely about constantly collecting new players via Ultimate Team and the like.

A patch every half-fortnight

Another interesting fact — many current games don’t get updated every year. They can get updated every week. Video games aren’t being developed and sold like discrete products anymore, based on single sales and annual sequels. Games are turning into services, with constant upgrades and virtuous feedback loops.

Fortnite, for example, is constantly iterating with fun stunts like giant pink robots and Marshmello concerts. It’s much more of a subscription-enabled SaaS approach to game development than a big Hollywood blockbuster approach. As anyone who has played it knows, Fortnite doesn’t have annual releases — it has seasons, which last roughly ten weeks each. That helps it generate more narratives, more player input, and more engagement.

Taking a cue from Eric Ries’ lean startup method, Epic Games is shortening their product development cycle through experimentation, validated learning, and iteration. And they’re creating a virtuous feedback loop whereby customer feedback helps inform product development. It’s “Fortnite-as-a-Service.” However, the company has seen some backlash for putting increased pressure on its developers to meet new timeline demands — figuring out how to do push updates sustainably is going to be important to the industry moving forward.

Unity Technologies is another example of this shift. One of the world’s most popular developer platforms, Unity is currently used to create over half of the world’s video games, as well as dozens of feature films every year. A few years ago, Unity decided to pursue a recurring revenue model as a hedge against boom-or-bust industry cycles.

The company’s shift from perpetual licenses to subscriptions wasn’t just a financial imperative — it was a creative one as well. “In today’s world, we can’t leave customers behind for a year because we are in the process of releasing a major version,” said Unity Co-Founder Joachim Ante in a blog post. “We think it would be very bad for Unity developers if we held features for a full number release, rather than launch these features along the way when they are ready…With our switch to subscription, we can make Unity incrementally better, every week. When a feature is complete, we will ship it. If it is not ready we will wait for the next point release. Our switch to subscription is absolutely necessary in order for us to provide a robust and stable platform.”

The subscription advantage

Again, we see the SaaS philosophy at work. Most SaaS companies roll out incremental new product upgrades on a monthly basis, rather than ship giant new releases every year like many of the video game sports franchises. Sure, the pace can feel demanding at times, but the subscription model actually creates more space for ideas and creativity, because developers aren’t shackled to a giant annual release, which forces lots of hard decisions about what to cut and what to keep.

“With a subscription, we’re able to see the kinds of games customers like to play most regularly, and the kinds of experiences within games they might want to play more frequently,” said EA Senior Vice President Mike Blank at the most recent E3 Conference. “By virtue of that, we can try to tailor an offering where we can provide types of games experiences that might be more relevant.”

But the subscription model doesn’t just benefit development teams — game bundle subscriptions encourage more creativity and discovery on the player side as well. IDC Research Director Lewis Ward recently said, “Our surveys show that users of bundled game subscriptions…tend to experiment more with titles they otherwise wouldn’t play. So the upside for publishers is that subscribers are more likely to try their product because it’s ‘free’ with the subscription. The downside is that if you don’t grab those users out of the gate, they’re more likely to quit.”

That sums up both the appeal — and the challenge — of subscription models. Relatively low acquisition costs means that you can generate a sizeable base of subscribers to any given service. But to hang on to them, you’ve got to keep happily surprising them on a consistent basis.

The game studios are trying to replicate the Netflix effect—just look at Microsoft’s Xbox Game Pass, which is aimed at becoming the “Netflix of video games.” While everyone loves a hit, the new imperative is to translate the popularity from that hit into growing your base of subscription revenue. Where game studios — and Netflix — can improve, is continuing to feed the flywheel, developing a virtuous circle where more engagement creates a better service which creates more engagement. Netflix could probably do a better job of hanging onto popular bread-and-butter shows like Friends and The Office, which are vital to their retention strategy.

Conclusion

In short, the game studios – and particularly traditional game console manufacturers and distributors – are trying to stay sticky as new competition emerges. Sony now has 36.4 million PlayStation subscribers, Microsoft Live has 64 million monthly users, and Nintendo now has over 10 million Nintendo Switch Online subscribers. They’re not thinking in terms of “games sold” anymore — they’re thinking in terms of acquisition and retention of subscribers.

Upcoming cloud gaming systems like Google’s Stadia and Microsoft’s Project xCloud will only accelerate the trend towards “video games as a service,” enabling users to stream games just like they’d stream Netflix or YouTube videos. Think about it: Stadia and xCloud are flipping traditional gameplay on its side, allowing people to play high-end games directly on their phones or PCs. In other words, console-quality games, without the outdated console.

For gaming studios, this opens up new and untapped revenue streams. For consumers, it’s another key benefit of subscription services (car services, home security services, etc) — we get the actual outcomes we want, without having to deal with all the annoying hassles of planned obsolescence. We get to extract the service that sits within the product. And if that service stays smart and creative, we stick around.

Now, I don’t think big video game launches are going away any time soon — marketing departments love them too much. But if a game studio wants to stick around for the long term, then it’s going to have to develop some kind of subscription strategy. It’s going to have to make every month a launch month.

（source:venture beat ）