Joost van Dreunen谈2019年游戏行业的十大趋势

原作者：Joost van Dreunen 译者：Willow Wu

（在本观点文章中，SuperData Research创始人Joost van Dreunen分析了2019年行业的十大趋势，从最新的合并浪潮到PC游戏市场的分裂。）

每年的这个时候，作为一名分析师，我都会试图对游戏行业的未来发表一番泛泛之谈，尽量避免丢面子。

哈，这是不可能的，我会火力全开的。

2019年有望成为游戏行业的丰收之年，革新和竞争将会促使行业出现更多产品，为更大范围的受众提供更多样化的游戏。

1.云游戏成为了新兴领域，促成新的伙伴关系

总体而言，游戏玩家将成为煤矿中的金丝雀，为大型科技公司测试新技术的可行性，以此来决定要不要将它介绍给主流消费群体。像亚马逊、腾讯、谷歌和微软这样的公司拥有自己的数据中心，可以虚拟运行企业旗下的应用。就像我之前说到的，2019年我们将会看到更多对于基础设施的投资以及内容收购，因为这些巨头公司都希望成为消费者市场的领导者。

这就意味着我们会看到更多令人意外的合作，就比如腾讯和谷歌在中国的合作。像索尼、任天堂和其他老牌游戏发行商将不得不考虑是否要继续单打独斗(比如EA)，还是参与合作，放弃一部分收入。

2.PC游戏市场分裂，玩家成为赢家

这不是坏事。Valve垄断这个这个市场已经超过十年了，现在新的竞争者出现了。我们已经看到了Valve试图抢在Epic前宣布他们新的平台费用政策。在不久之后，新平台Discord推出了对开发者更有利的方案。

这对玩家以及开发公司来说是个好现象。消费者能以更低的价格购买游戏，选择也丰富了。再者商店与商店之间也会在功能方面产生竞争，提供更好的用户体验。开发公司的销售渠道多了，风险也随之降低。从前，除非你是动视或者是EA旗下的游戏，不然你只能把产品投入混乱的Steam商店，别无选择。

I love daily match(from gamasutra)

3.跨平台障碍将会打破

尽管数字化发展势不可挡，但大部分的互动娱乐活动仍保持在各自的围墙花园里——这会改变。就像电信网络允许人们彼此通话，跟移动设备提供商是谁没有关系，网络游戏也将打破屏障。2019年，跨平台玩游戏会变得无处不在。2018年末其实就已经有这样的迹象了，《堡垒之夜》的巨大成功促使各大平台愿意进行友好合作，让不同平台的玩家实现联机。

老牌发行商，比如动视暴雪也体验到了跨平台功能带来的好处：《炉石传说》继续在集换式卡牌游戏领域占据主导地位，因为PC和手机玩家可以无障碍联机，获得同样的游戏体验。此外《炉石传说》也非常适合在Twitch等平台进行直播。

跨平台玩法应该成为所有游戏开发公司新年计划的首要任务。

4.订阅服务和捆绑包将会拉动销量

看到Twitch和微软的Game Pass取得初步成功后，将来会有更多公司会采取这种盈利模式。大平台拥有者，比如索尼和苹果希望通过内容订阅来增加收入。这两家公司都表示他们计划增加服务收入，以应对硬件销售的触顶局面。

游戏发行商尝试用微交易实现大规模成功。《炉石传说》《侠盗猎车手5 Online》还有FIFA等知名系列游戏通过他们所说的“经常性收入”挣了不少钱。除了定期利用内容更新向用户推荐更高价值的产品或服务，他们将会探索订阅模式，为玩家提供大量折扣和特别内容，以换取更容易预测的收入流。

5.电子游戏会面临越来越多针对未成年用户的规定

既然游戏已经发展成为主流媒体形式，更多审查也在人们的预料之中。2019年，行业会更关注未成年人以及科技。数据公司将会受到密切关注。

就像是开箱机制引发不同地区政府发声，我们也会看到人们为保护孩子做出努力。这就意味着游戏公司在处理未成年人数据时必须使用一套更加严格的标准。在东西方经济体之间的贸易战愈演愈烈的背景下，数据所有权(尤其是与未成年人相关的)将成为一个政治话题和商业战略挑战。

还有就是像《堡垒之夜》这样的游戏会被指责为文化侵蚀和破坏家庭和谐的罪魁祸首（尽管这主要是由极端保守人士和不符事实的批评所推动的）。从它对青少年人群的巨大吸引力来看，《堡垒之夜》可能会成为替罪羊，就连唱诗班都在用歌声表达对电子游戏的不满。

今年的国会意见听证会就完美地展示了这些政府代表跟日常科技有多脱节。然而，与先前不一样，我希望目前处于食物链顶端的公司能够准确地知道如何应对。他们应该给孩子们提供一个安全舒适的游玩空间，不会像其它游戏那样让这些未成年人面临更加困难的挑战。

但是，明年的游戏行业不会像我们之前看到的那样持续繁荣。相关行业的趋势表明，游戏行业也将朝着竞争更加集中、政府监管更加严密的方向发展。

6.进一步的行业整合即将到来

由于消费放缓，一些游戏公司将会面临倒闭，而另一些则会吞并那些失败的公司以巩固其市场地位。这并不是什么新鲜事，但猜测谁将收购谁还是有探讨空间的。我之前猜测亚马逊会收购GameStop，现在也是这么认为的。只能到GameStop真正结束的那一天我们才能知道了，可能是在2019年第一季度末尾。

这一整年，欧洲各地都在进行一系列小型收购活动，并不是所有都能圆满收场。Starbreeze遭到了突击搜查，警方怀疑公司存在违法内幕交易，至少一人当场被捕。即便如此，今年这种雄心勃勃的投资组合方式——收购规模较小的工作室，利用他们的IP对抗高效的分销网络——或许变得过于受欢迎了。

最后，我预计腾讯这样的公司将继续收购更多外国公司。今年，不出意外的话腾讯希望通过缩小风险敞口、加大对西方公司和平台的投资来缓解近期的一些压力，继续走多样化的路线。在过去的两年里，它在这一战略上的成功大大减少了PC和移动这两大最具创新力领域的竞争。

这并不意味着革新本身面临着风险。这只是意味着，对于任何收入不超过10亿美元的公司来说，风险都会变得更高。

7.即将到来的寒冬会使行业增速减缓，收入和创新方面也可能是如此

我这段时间一直在写相关话题的文章。但是别误会，我也希望我的想法是错的。虽然我想猜测说2019年游戏行业会更进一步增长，人们收入会更多，但是现实中并没有这样的迹象。

首先，手游在不同地区市场逐渐呈现饱和状态，包括中国。从一个无足轻重的领域发展成全球规模最大的领域，手游的增长步伐开始放缓了。我们也走到了当下主机市场循环的末端。意思就是说平台商家会进一步降低他们的硬件价格，而有意消费的用户群体会对价格特别敏感。

整体经济指标显示出的是消费速度放缓，尤其是在美国。今年早些时候颁布了新的减税政策，但是之后的整体支出状况让零售商都感到意外。最后，随着游戏的主流化发展，相关的经济趋势也发生了变化。从广义上讲，这意味着游戏产业在过去看似“反周期”的领域，之后将会随着总体消费支出的变化而变化。此外，投资者变得更加精明，开始大举买卖游戏类股票。这就意味着更多游戏公司倾向于采取保守策略，不会尝试内容创新（就比如EA）。

即将到来的停滞期是行业整体转型的前兆，这就是未来的一线希望。但是春天来临之前还要经历一场严冬。

8.播主和网络红人的狂欢

是的，成名会冲昏他们的头脑，会让他们说出蠢话。他们没有像其它行业的新星那样，在送上舞台之前接受进行严格的审查，这是我们这个时代的新现象，这些人突然之间就被推到了聚光灯下。这其中有很多业余爱好者互相竞争以赢得观众和类似搜索网站的青睐，跟他们有关的事风险往往会大得多。

为了获得关注，一些渴望成功的播主会牺牲内容的真实性，一些人甚至会在事业开始之前就将它毁于自己之手。日益加剧的竞争压力会促使这些新一代的网络风向标人物保持真实，发布可靠的内容。我敢肯定Twitch和YouTube会采取相关措施。但是这种真实性在多数人看来并非是必要的。

9.EA在2019年会遭受重创

对于三巨头来说，Electronic Arts应该是今年最不好过的。尽管收购GameFly的串流云游戏团队表现出了EA为扩张所做的积极努力，但是投资者们依然因为之前的各种负面新闻保持消极态度。投资者所期望的是长久持续的增长，EA收购之举也是出于长期战略考虑，某种程度上说也是有点委屈。

另外，客观 来说EA也有几个弱点：公司的收入，尤其是利润方面高度依赖于FIFA Ultimate Team的持续成功。除此之外，公司的新IP情况也比较不乐观，这使得投资者更加担忧公司的长期发展。简而言之，EA无法摆脱华尔街投资者的压力，一些分析师已经降低了他们对未来一年的预期。

10. GameStop寻求收购

我去年做过这样的预测，基本上可以说是对的：过去半年，GameStop一直在寻求收购。公司管理层简直一团糟，以致于公司最大股东Tiger Management发函要求他们把各种破事处理好，做好战略规划。

GameStop一直都未能找到买家，现在发现他们不得不放弃2014年开展的多元化战略——即在平行的细分市场收购连锁零售店。就在近期，GameStop出售了Spring Mobile部门。他们很有可能会用这笔钱来偿还债务，并提高私营公司或类似亚马逊这样的公司收购它的可能性。没人会预测说2019会是游戏零售业的好年头，然而我们所看到的事实是愈发残酷。

总而言之，今年对我们来说是挑战满满但值得期待的一年。年初的迹象让人们抱有一丝希望，但是2019还是有可能会成为非常不好过的一年。我准备好了。

本文由游戏邦编译，转载请注明来源，或咨询微信zhengjintiao

[In this opinion piece, SuperData Research founder Joost van Dreunen examines ten major trends for 2019, from a fresh wave of consolidations to a fragmentation of PC game marketplaces.]

It’s the time of year when I try to minimize loss of face as an analyst by making generic statements about the gaming industry’s future.

Ha. No chance. Both feet in.

2019 promises to be a great year in games. Innovation and competition will elevate the industry’s offerings and drive more inclusivity among a broader range of audiences.

Cloud gaming emerges as the new frontier and brings about unlikely partnerships

Collectively, gamers will serve as the canary in the coal mine as large tech firms look to introduce new technologies to mainstream consumer audiences. Companies like Amazon, Tencent, Google and Microsoft already own and operate massive data centers that virtually-run enterprise applications. As I previously covered, we will see continued investment in infrastructure and content acquisition in 2019 as these billion dollar companies seek to claim the consumer market.

This means that we’ll likely see some surprising partnerships for instance between Tencent and Google in China. Incumbents like Sony, Nintendo and legacy game publishers will have to decide on going at it alone (e.g. EA) or buddying up and surrendering a piece of revenue.

Players win as the PC games market breaks into pieces

It’s not a bad thing. But after more than a decade of a virtual monopoly held by Valve, new contenders have emerged. We already saw how Valve tried to get in front of Epic’s announcement that it was lowering its platform fees. And not long after, Discord popped up with an even better rate.

This is good for players and companies that make games. Consumers will get better prices and more choice, and the various digital stores will compete over functionality and improved user experience. Creative firms can reduce their exposure to a single distributor. Previously, unless you were Activision or EA, you’d have no other option than to join the cluttered Steam store.

Walled gardens will be broken down enabling cross-platform play with anyone, anywhere

Despite digitalization, the bulk of interactive entertainment has remained within one of the various walled gardens. That is going to change. Like telecom networks that allow people to speak to each other irrespective of their phone provider, so, too, will online gaming break down silos. In 2019, cross-platform play will become ubiquitous. The end of 2018 has already shown the potential of this as Fortnite’s success resulted in each of the platforms agreeing to play nicely with one another.

Legacy publishers like Activision Blizzard have also tasted what cross-platform play can do for their franchises: Hearthstone has continued to dominate the collective card game category, because it works seamlessly across PC and mobile, and offers a smooth integration with live-streaming platforms like Twitch.

Cross-platform play should be at the top of every studio’s design agenda in 2019.

Subscriptions and bundled content will drive sales in 2019

After seeing the initial success with subscriptions enjoyed by Twitch and Microsoft’s Game Pass, more companies will adopt this monetization model. Large platform holders like Sony and Apple are looking to grow their revenues by offering content subscriptions. Both of these companies have indicated they have plans to increase services revenue as a direct response to reaching the limit of how much hardware they can sell.

Game publishers have been experimenting with micro-transactions to great success. Tentpole franchises like FIFA, Hearthstone, and GTA V Online have made a mint from what they call ‘recurrent revenues.’ Beyond up-selling their audiences on a regular schedule with content updates, they will explore subscription models that will provide massive discounts and unique content to players in exchange for a more predictable revenue flows.

Video games will face more and new regulation with a focus on kids

Now that gaming has emerged as a mainstream form of entertainment, the industry can expect more scrutiny. In addition, there will be sharper focus on kids and technology in 2019. Data companies will be increasingly under the microscope.

Similar to the loot box scandal that resulted in various governments speaking out, we will see an effort focused on protecting children. This means that game companies will be held to a higher standard with regards to how they handle data on minors. Against the background of a festering trade war between eastern and western economies, data ownership, in particular around children, will emerge as a political topic and strategic business challenge.

It also means that titles like Fortnite will be fingered as culprits in narratives around an erosion of culture and well-being (although this is largely driven by ultra-conservative and misinformed industry critics). The title’s appeal to younger audiences will make it a likely scapegoat as the usual choir sings its disdain for video games.

This year’s congressional hearing in the U.S. more than satisfied our need for examples of how disconnected government representatives are from technology used by literally everyone else. Different from previous generations, however, I expect the companies currently at the top of the food chain to know exactly how to respond. They will push titles that offer a safe, pleasant space for kids to play, uninterrupted by broader challenges found everywhere else.

Next year will, however, not be a continuation of exuberance as we’ve seen previously. Trends in related industries suggest that gaming, too, will move toward a more concentrated competitive landscape and closer government monitoring.

Further consolidation is imminent for the games industry

In response to the slowdown in consumer spending, some game companies will go out of business and others will gobble up the failing ones to strengthen their market positions. Nothing new here but it does leave room for speculation as to who will buy whom. I previously speculated that Amazon would buy GameStop and still think they might. Only it will happen when GameStop reaches its wits end, probably at the end of Q1 2019.

Across Europe there have been a series of smaller acquisitions throughout the year, some of which are now turning sour. Starbreeze had its offices raided (which I’m told sounded worse than it was). Even so, this year the ambitious portfolio approach of buying up smaller studios and leveraging their IP against efficient distribution networks became, perhaps, too popular.

Finally, I expect companies like Tencent to continue satisfying their appetites for foreign assets. If nothing else, this year has cemented Tencent’s need to diversify as they look to mitigate some of its recent stresses by lowering its exposure to games revenue and further investing in western companies and platforms. Over the past two years its success with this strategy has greatly lowered competition across PC and mobile, the two most innovative categories.

This does not mean that innovation itself is at risk. It just means that the stakes will be higher for any firm that does not make a billion or more in revenues.

The coming winter brings a slowdown in growth, and possibly in revenue and innovation

I’ve been writing about this for a while now. But don’t misunderstand: I want to be wrong about this. While I would like to predict that 2019 will bring even more growth and more money for everyone, the supporting evidence simply isn’t there.

For one, mobile gaming is showing saturation across different markets, including in China. It has evolved from insignificance to become the biggest games market worldwide and is now starting to slow. We are also at the end of the current console cycle. This simply means that the platforms are going to discount their hardware and the bulk of consumers looking to spend are disproportionately price conscious.

Overall economic indicators suggest that consumer spending, especially in the US, is headed to a slowdown. Following the tax breaks earlier in the year, overall spending surprised even the retailers. But that party is going to end soon. Finally, as gaming has become mainstream its underlying economics have shifted. In broad terms this means that where previously the games industry may have seemed “counter-cyclical” it is going to follow suit with whatever happens to consumer spending at large. In addition, investors have become more savvy and are starting to trade aggressively against game stocks. This means game companies are less inclined to take risks on content innovation (as in the case of EA).

The long-term silver lining here is that this imminent stagnation is the precursor of the industry’s overall transition. But before Spring comes Winter.

Live-streamers and influencers embark on a drama binge

Yes, newfound fame will get the better of them and stupid things will be said. This is still the very first generation that suddenly finds itself thrust into the mainstream spotlight—they don’t have the benefit of the intense vetting that other industries have subjected their rising stars to before sending them on the main stage. With many still amateurs and competing against one another to win the favor of audiences and aggregators alike, the stakes are substantially higher.

In their hunger for attention aspiring streamers will sacrifice their authenticity and some will undoubtedly ruin their careers before it even starts. Mounting pressures from growing competition will drive this new generation of tastemakers to ‘keep it real’ and remain authentic. Twitch and YouTube will do what they can, I’m sure. But for many, this authenticity will be too much.

Electronic Arts takes a hit in 2019

Among the Big Three, Electronic Arts will have the toughest year. Despite its aggressive expansion effort illustrated by the acquisition of GameFly’s streaming division, EA is going to face the music with investors. This is somewhat undeserved because financial investors insist on continual growth and generally can’t see past the next quarter.

And, to be fair, EA has a few weaknesses: its revenue and, in particular, its margin area highly dependent on the continuing success of FIFA Ultimate Team. In addition, it has relatively little new IP in the pipe which makes it even more difficult for investors to care about the longer term future. Simply put, EA can’t free itself from Wall Street’s needs as several analysts have already started to lower their expectations for the year ahead.

GameStop sells but it’s not a party

I already predicted this last year and was almost right: GameStop has been trying to get acquired for the past six months. Its C-suite is a mess, resulting in a letter from one of its largest shareholders, Tiger Management, to get its sh!t together (aka perform a strategic review).

The company has been unable to find a buyer and now finds itself forced to essentially abandon the diversification strategy it initiated in 2014 by acquiring retail chain in parallel market segments. Just recently GameStop sold off Spring Mobile and is likely to use the money to pay off its debts and improve the likelihood of some private equity firm or a company like Amazon to buy it. No one expected it to be a great year for games retail, but it’s getting sadder.

In summary, we’ve had a great year and a tougher one ahead of us. Initial signals are hopeful but 2019 promises to be a doozy. I’m ready.

（source:gamasutra.com ）