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开发者谈《天堂》系列游戏的戏剧性发展历程

发布时间:2018-09-10 09:10:17 Tags:,

开发者谈《天堂》系列游戏的戏剧性发展历程

原作者:Jon Jordan 译者:Willow Wu

自1998年起,《天堂》(Lineage)就成了韩国游戏产业一个举足轻重的IP,生命周期总价值超过20亿美元。

这个MMORPG网游在2003年发行了续作《天堂2》,NCSoft的2016年年收益的有一半都是源于这两个游戏。

然后,令人大跌眼镜的事情发生了。

2016年第四季度《天堂》系列收益猛增,但是下一个季度就暴跌50%。而且自那以后持续走低,再无起色。

原因自然就是《天堂2:革命》的发行。

并不是说NCSoft以前没有发行过手游或者是《天堂》系列手游,只是这些游戏并没能获得什么关注。

ncsoft net marble lineage sales(from pocketgamer.biz)

ncsoft net marble lineage sales(from pocketgamer.biz)

讽刺的是,他们要借韩国娱乐集团CJ E&M旗下的新贵公司Netmarble(腾讯是主要股东之一)之力才认清《天堂》这个IP的真正价值,当然前提是利用得当。

《天堂2:革命》发行于2016年12月,它很快就成为Netmarble的热门产品,对于NCSoft也是如此,这要归功于《天堂》系列的版税以及晕轮效应促成的营收增长(虽然时间并不长)。

值得一提的是当时NCSoft持有Netmarble 6.9%的股份。这是2015年NCSoft为了抵御Nexon的敌意收购而进行战略合作和换股交易的结果——这就是韩国企业之间的阴谋较量。这就为《天堂2:革命》的授权协议打下了基础,也为游戏的顺利发行发行铺路。

《天堂2:革命》发行后就打破了韩国游戏行业的营收纪录:首月收益达到1.76亿美元,毫无争议地成为一款轰动性的大热门产品。考虑到当时的Netmarble正计划进行IPO,收益飙升以及盈利能力对他们来说是非常重要的证明,能够帮助他们吸引更多资金。

《天堂2:革命》后期也是热度不减,成为了2017年前期全球市场营收最高的手游。Netmarble的IPO是韩国2010年来规模最大的。他们通过此次IPO获得融资23亿美元,公司估值达到120亿美元。

然而这只是故事的开头。

NCSoft在2017年6月发行的《天堂M》预注册用户高达550万,轻松打破了《天堂2:革命》创下的发行首月销售记录,收益2.33亿美元。《天堂M》第一季度的营收约为5亿美元,推动NCSoft销售额增长181%。

两个游戏都在发售首年带来了超过10亿美元的收入,让《天堂》的生命周期总价值在20年后翻了一番。这也促使韩国的游戏市场价值在2015年至2017年期间提升了80%。

与传统的PC游戏订阅市场相比,F2P游戏的发展速度着实令人吃惊。

这个故事讲的不仅仅是一个广受喜爱的经典PC游戏成功转化为热门手游。

《天堂》对韩国游戏所产生的重要文化影响为后续两款手游的发行提供了非常大的起跑线优势。然而,这两款游戏都未能延续之前的发展轨迹,Netmarble和NCSoft也没能在全球市场再次创造成功。

现实是《天堂2:革命》的季度收益在巅峰期之后下降了三分之一,而《天堂M》更可怕,跌幅超过了50%。但它们的收益依然非常可观,占到NCSoft总收入的65%,Netmarble的35%。

要说它们盈利还不会上一个等级,就公司的股价来看,恐怕答案是否定的。NCSoft的股价与《天堂M》发行时大体持平,而Netmarble的股价与上市时相同。

投资者们估计游戏在未来的表现应该不会有什么变化。这个观点可能是错的,因为把游戏当作服务运营的核心意义在于为开发人员提供机会,让他们可以随着时间的推移提升游戏的沉浸度以及盈利能力。

这就是为什么《糖果传奇》可以在发行数年后依然保持增长,而且相比《天堂》,它的用户基数可是要小得多。从另一方面来说,《天堂2:革命》和《天堂M》的首月强劲势头显然就是不可持续的。

毫无疑问,游戏未来的成功取决于Netmarble和NCSoft的在线运营能力。换句话说,真正的竞争从现在才开始。

本文由游戏邦编译,转载请注明来源,或咨询微信zhengjintiao

Since 1998, Lineage has been a staple of the South Korean games industry.

Generating over $2 billion in terms of lifetime revenues, the PC MMORPG series spawned sequel Lineage II in 2003, and as recently as 2016 the pair accounted for almost half of publisher NCSoft’s annual revenue.

And then something significant happened.

Revenues jumped, peaking in Q4 2016 before dropping 50 per cent in the following quarter. They’ve continued to fall ever since.

The reason – of course – was the release of mobile game Lineage II: Revolution.

Enter Netmarble

It wasn’t that NCSoft hadn’t released mobile games or even mobile Lineage games before, just they’d never gained any traction.

Ironically, then, it took upstart Netmarble, formed out of Korean entertainment conglomerate CJ E&M and part-funded by Chinese giant Tencent (which remains a significant shareholder), to highlight just how valuable the Lineage brand remained, if correctly handled.

Released in December 2016, Lineage II: Revolution was an immediate hit for Netmarble, and by default NCSoft too, thanks to the royalties it received and the Halo Effect that boosted the revenues of the original PC version of Lineage, if only for a short time.

At this point it’s also worth noting NCSoft has a 6.9 per cent stake in Netmarble. It’s the result of a strategic partnership and share swap NCSoft carried out to fend off a hostile takeover bid from Nexon in 2015: such are the machinations of Korean business.

And this was the foundation for the licensing agreement that eventually produced Lineage II: Revolution.

A revolution

Setting records for the most money a game had generated in Korea within 30 days of launch ($176 million), Lineage II: Revolution was an immediate smash hit.

That uplift of revenue and, more importantly profitability, proved to be very useful for Netmarble given it was planning to IPO.

Fuelled by the game’s continued popularity – Lineage II: Revolution was the top grossing mobile game globally in early 2017 – Netmarble became the largest South Korea IPO in seven years.

Valued at $12 billion, the float also raised a $2.3 billion warchest for Netmarble to use for future operations and acquisitions.

The story was just beginning however.

Launched in June 2017 on the back of 5.5 million pre-registrations, NCSoft’s Lineage M blew Lineage II: Revolution’s record for 30 day sales out of the water, raking in $233 million. It generated around $500 million during its first quarter, in the process boosting NCSoft’s sales by 181 per cent.

Indeed, each game generated over $1 billion during their first year, doubling Lineage’s lifetime revenue total in a 20th of the time. The result also boosted the value of the South Korean games market 80 per cent between 2015 and 2017.

You couldn’t have a more dramatic demonstration of the velocity of the free-to-play mobile games sector compared to the legacy PC game subscription market.

What goes up…

Yet this story is more nuanced than a simple story of much loved PC games’ successful transition to mobile.

The cultural significance of Lineage to South Korean games provided those initial high levels of engagement when Lineage II: Revolution and Lineage M were released. Neither game has managed to sustain that trajectory, however, nor have Netmarble and NCSoft managed to replicate this local success globally.

The result is Lineage II: Revolution’s quarterly sales have fallen by a third since their peak, while Lineage M is down over 50 per cent.

They remain incredibly lucrative, of course, providing 65 per cent of NCSoft’s total sales and 35 per cent of Netmarble’s.

But according to one measure of their ability to generate increasing levels of profits – company share price – the view is they’re yesterday’s news. NCSoft’s share price is broadly similar to what it was when Lineage M launched, while Netmarble’s is the same as when it floated.

Investors, at least, are betting the games will continue at the same level. This could be a mistake given the whole point of games-as-a-service is to provide developers with the opportunity to optimise their engagement and monetisation over time.

That’s why games such as Candy Crush Saga can increase their sales years after they were launched and from a much smaller user base. On the other hand, the incredible launch months of Lineage II: Revolution and Lineage M were clearly unsustainable in the long run.

No doubt the truth lies somewhere inbetween with the games’ future success dependent on Netmarble and NCSoft’s skills when it comes to live operations. In other words, the hard work starts now.(source:pocketgamer.biz


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