开发者认为电子游戏将引领全球娱乐产业的增长

原文作者：Dean Takahashi 译者：Megan Shieh

随着时代的发展，电子娱乐成为了全球娱乐产业中的主流，而传统的娱乐形式目前正在努力适应这一变化。与此同时，电子游戏产业蓬勃发展并已经演变成了一种主流娱乐形式。数据研究公司SuperData Research的首席执行官Joost van Dreunen在2018年GamesBeat峰会的一次演讲中，谈到了电子游戏在媒体和娱乐产业中的崛起。尽管游戏产业仍在持续增长，但它们变化得很快，而且也很难预测。

他说，尽管游戏业有所增长，但像玩具这样的传统娱乐产业却步履蹒跚。由于玩具的生产、研发和销售周期都相对较长，而且库存成本高昂，所以玩具制造商很难及时把握热门趋势，比如前段时间在网上很火的fidget spinner（指尖陀螺）。

Candy Crush Saga(from gamezebo)

van Dreunen说：“当一家公司无法适应生态系统的变化时，死亡是必然的。玩具反斗城（Toys “R” Us）申请破产就是一个很好的例子。”

全球的年度娱乐消费支出自1984年以来就一直在不断上升，现在每年大约有2000亿美元被花在娱乐项目上。

在数字媒体时代音乐产业曾一度陷入低谷，但因为各种演唱会和音乐软件（如Spotify）很受欢迎，所以使得该产业有机会重整旗鼓。在遇到发展瓶颈的行业中，小型企业只能想办法在商业模式上实现创新，合体创造出某种新型媒体产业，这样才能跟上时代变化。他说，在当前的环境背景下，商业模式创新和高度敏捷性极其重要。

《Pokémon Go》的快速增长就是其中一个例子，它通过社交媒体迅速增长，并且由于智能手机的普及所以用户基础扩大到了惊人的数量。他说，该作能够在一个相对开放、门槛较低的平台上取得成功，这并非偶然。通过商业模式创新，你可以在供需两方面延长许多产品的生命周期。

虽然游戏主机是一种封闭性平台，但它很有可能还会出现创新。更重要的是，数字产业的发展将继续跨越更多更开放的平台，比如PC上的Steam，van Dreunen说。

“我们必须放弃过去固有的一些想法。以往我们更专注于一个人的才能，但现在我们需要更加专注一支完整团队的整体才能；而且在注重商业头脑的同时，也得兼顾创造力。”

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As traditional entertainment struggles to find its place in a new digital world, video games prosper and have evolved into a mainstream form of entertainment. Joost van Dreunen, CEO of analyst firm SuperData Research, talked the rise of games in the context of the larger media and entertainment industry growth in a talk at GamesBeat Summit 2018. While games are growing, they’re also changing and remain unpredictable as well.

While gaming has grown, traditional industries like toys have faltered, van Dreunen said. The toy business is hobbled by long production, development, and marketing cycles, with massive spending on inventory. Toy makers have been unable to jump on hot trends, such as the recent craze for fidget spinners thanks to viral growth on social media.

The death of the Toys ‘R Us retail chain is “what happens when a company doesn’t adapt to changes in the ecosystem,” van Dreunen said.

About $200 billion is spent a year on entertainment, and it has been going up continuously since 1984.

Music took a dive during the digital media era, but it has started coming back as concerts and Spotify ads gain popularity. As the smaller categories falter, consolidation of media into massive companies with economies of scale has been the driving trend in the slow-growth industries, van Dreunen said. Business-model innovation and increased agility matter a lot in the current industry climate, he said.

Pokémon Go’s rapid growth was an example of the new kind of media property since it grew rapidly through social media and scaled up to huge numbers thanks to the near ubiquity of smartphones. The fact that it took off on a relatively open platform with low barriers to entry was no accident, he said.

“By not making things too difficult for creatives, you can really extend the life cycle of a lot of products on both the supply and demand side,” he said.

The console model will likely continue, even though it is a closed platform. But the growth of digital will continue across more open platforms, such as Steam on the PC, as well, van Dreunen said.

“We have to let go of some of the ideas we have had in the past,” like focusing on the genius of one person rather than a full team or failing to balance both business sense and creativity, van Dreunen said. （Source: venturebeat.com ）