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Gamasutra关于2017年手游产业发展的6大趋势分析

发布时间:2018-03-28 09:32:24 Tags:,

原文作者:Jon Jordan 译者:Megan Shieh

跟2015年暴雪斥资59亿美元收购King工作室,或2016年《Pokemon GO》的成功比起来,2017年的手游圈是显得安静了些。

但这也并不是说在这一年间什么都没有发生:

手游电竞逐步兴起

许多开发商都十分看好“移动电子竞技”的前景,相信它会发展成为手游行业中的主流之一。这其中也包括Super Evil Megacorp工作室,该工作室旗下的MOBA手游《虚荣(Vainglory)》刚刚结束了2017年年底在新加坡举行的电竞冠军赛,并宣布将在2018年开放5V5对战模式。

此外芬兰开发商Critical Force宣布,该公司旗下的射击游戏《关键行动(Critical Ops)》累计下载量突破了3000万次,而电竞投资人、《守望先锋》职业战队的老板Kevin Chou也加入了该公司的董事会。

虽然手游电竞无法与《守望先锋》、《Dota 2》和《英雄联盟》等PC电竞相匹敌,但许多带有常规PVP模式的手游都把电竞作为其常规游戏内活动中的一部分,比如《皇室战争》、《魔灵召唤》和《暗影之诗》。

除此之外,总收入已经超过20亿美元的中国手游《王者荣耀》也是一款拥有不计其数粉丝的手游电竞产品。

Switch的发布缓解了任天堂在手游领域的压力

Switch的推出受到了广大玩家的欢迎,这也为任天堂减轻了其在手游业务方面的压力。

作为2017年Googly Play排行榜上下载次数最多的新游戏,《超级马里奥跑酷》在安卓和iOS平台上的累计下载量突破了2亿次,可即便如此,它的营收业绩仍被任天堂标榜为不尽人意。相比之下,RPG《火焰之纹章》的表现要好得多,该作创造了超过1亿美元的收入。其次,尽管《动物之森:口袋营地》在本国日本很受欢迎,但在西方市场却默默无闻。

考虑到这种情况,任天堂2017财年的收入可能更多是来自《Pokemom Go》的IP授权业务,而不是该公司旗下的自制手游。

Pokemon Go(from gamasutra)

Pokemon Go(from gamasutra)

规模较小、资金较少的并购交易和IPO

2017年间,虽然没有出现过交易额超过10亿美元的大型并购,但手游领域也见证了不少规模较小的并购案和IPO。

澳大利亚赌场集团Aristocrat斥资5亿美元收购了以色列开发商Plarium;Take-2以2.5亿美元的价格收购了西班牙移动游戏开发商Social Point;而韩国发行商Nexon则收购了美国工作室Pixelberry。

除了这些较为“完整”的并购案例之外,还有一些其他例子。比如,Zynga斥资1亿美元收购了Peak Games旗下的所有棋牌游戏;而澳大利亚手游发行商Animoca Brands则在调整产品研发重心的同时,将旗下数百款休闲游戏分为两批售出。

去年规模最大的上市案要属韩国出版商Netmarble,该公司通过首次公开募股筹集了逾20亿美元资金,目前估值为150亿美元,这多半要归功于《天堂2:重生》在韩国本土取得的巨大成功。

就估值而言,西方公司的市值要小得多,但Rovio(市值10亿美元)和Next Games (2亿美元)于2017年在芬兰上市,而Mag Interactive (1.2亿美元)和Nitro Games(1千万美元)也在瑞典实现了上市。

《绝地求生》掀起的“吃鸡手游”热潮

《绝地求生》在2017年给移动游戏产业带来了一定的影响,这种影响主要集中在中国市场,中国玩家对《绝地求生》的疯狂热爱导致该国的应用商店中充斥着各式各样的“吃鸡游戏”。单单是网易公司就在2017年间发布了5款“吃鸡游戏”,而腾讯公司则抢占了手游版《绝地求生》在中国的独家代理运营权,随后又宣布将会发布另一款官方改编产品。

然而用手机触摸屏玩射击游戏并不像PC或主机那么方便,其次与传统手游相比,吃鸡游戏的会话长度存在劣势,而且直至目前为止也还没有出现过一款真正成功的免费吃鸡手游。所以与其说是在满足受众需求,不如说这是网易和腾讯争夺中国市场份额的又一次竞争。

“中核游戏”的地位逐渐被取代

2017年间,各大App Store排行榜上的排位发生了翻天覆地的变化,潘多拉(Pandora)、Netflix和Tinder等非游戏订阅应用取代了《部落冲突》和《战争游戏》等中核游戏产品的排位,而新一代休闲游戏的兴起(尤其是女性向的休闲游戏)也加强了对中核游戏的冲击。

其中最显著的例子要属俄罗斯开发商Playrix推出的趣味性三消手游《梦幻家园(Homescapes)》,该作将三消玩法与室内设计结合,一举成为了西方各大营收榜上的Top 5。

来自土耳其的Peak Games也借鉴了自己之前在三消游戏中取得的成功,推出了全新游戏《卡通爆炸(Toon Blast)》,走上了《玩具爆破》先前开辟的道路,而Glu Mobile则利用一款带有PVP互动玩法的家装设计应用《Design Home》拓展了人们对游戏的定义,《Design Home》以及另一款同类游戏《Covet Fashion》占据了Glu Mobile总销售额的40%。

同样值得一提的还有Pocket Gems工作室推出的互动故事应用《Episodes》以及Pixelberry旗下的同类产品《选择(Choice)》,两款作品都在2017年间稳固盘旋在美国游戏营收榜上的Top 20。《Episodes》的良好表现致使Pocket Gems的大股东之一腾讯追加了9千万美元的投资,而Pixelberry则被韩国手游巨头Nexon收购。

但最令人惊讶的还是要属King的《糖果粉碎传奇》,尽管玩家数量出现了下降,但是通过对在线运营的调整,该作的收入仍然实现了季度性的环比增长。

增强现实技术(AR)被许多开发商看好

2017年,几乎所有的手机应用程序开发商都放弃了VR,转而寄期望于AR。

但这也是意料之中的事,在没有可持续市场的情况下VR的前景不被看好,而苹果公司最新发布的、支持ARKit的iOS 11操作系统在一夜之间就为AR应用市场增添了1亿用户。

iOS 11的推出致使App Store上涌现出了一批花样百出的AR游戏和应用程序(多数需要付费),等到安卓版的ARCore在2018年实现发布时,Google Play商店很有可能会再次出现这种情况。

无论如何,用户现在每购买一部新的智能手机就等于是免费获得了一个支持AR功能的设备,这样一来,至少开发商们知道自己开发的AR应用有一个可以销售的潜在市场。我们现在还说不准哪些AR应用可以大获成功,这点需要时间来判断,但有一点是可以肯定的,这次没人能把失败归咎于设备的缺乏了。

本文由游戏邦编译,转载请注明来源,或咨询微信zhengjintiao

Unlike previous years, there were no zingers in the world of mobile games during 2017.

That’s not to say nothing happened, of course.

Plenty did, but looking back, it was more a case of accelerating trends and future potential than headline-grabbing news such as Activision Blizzard’s $5.9 billion deal for King in 2015, or Nintendo’s first mobile game and Pokemon Go’s success in 2016.

So here are six of the year’s most significant trends; ones you’ll likely to see more of in 2018 too.

Mobile eSports

Is mobile eSports now a thing? Plenty of developers think so, and 2017 saw long term proponents such as Super Evil Megacorp finessing their activity. It’s just closed out the World Champions for its mobile MOBAVainglory in Singapore, also previewing the 5v5 mode that will launch next year.

Similarly Finnish developer Critical Force announced 30 million downloads of its Counter-Strike-inspired shooter Critical Ops, adding eSports investor and Overwatch League team owner Kevin Chou to its board.

But even if mobile eSport games don’t manage to stand out alongside the like of Overwatch, Dota 2 andLeague of Legends, plenty of regular mobile games with PVP modes – ranging from Clash Royale toSummoners War and Shadowverse - are claiming the eSport mantle as part of their regular in-game events schedule.

And that’s before we start to try an unpick what’s going on in China and what Tencent means when it says its $2 billion franchise Honor of Kings is an eSports title.

Nintendo

Given the success of the Switch, the pressure is off Nintendo when it comes to its still-relatively-new mobile operations. And perhaps that’s a good thing.

Super Mario Run was the most downloaded new game on Google Play in 2017, and has racked up over 200 million downloads across Android and iOS, but Nintendo still labels it a financial disappointment. RPG Fire Emblem has performed much better, generating over $100 million of revenue, but Animal Crossing: Pocket Camp has only troubled the top grossing charts in Japan.
In that context, it could be the case that in FY17, as in FY16, Nintendo will make more money from licensing the Pokemon IP to Niantic, the developer of Pokemon Go ($160 million in FY16), than it makes from its own mobile games.

Smaller, more focused IPOs and M&As

While 2017 didn’t see any billion dollar acquisitions in the mobile game space, there was plenty of significant activity nevertheless.

Australian casino outfit Aristocrat dropped $500 million on Israel core developer Plarium, while Take-Two made a serious move into mobile with its $250 million acquisition of Spanish casual developer Social Point, and Korean publisher Nexon bought US studio Pixelberry for an undisclosed sum but one likely to be north of $100 million.

Aside from these ‘complete’ deals, however, another interesting trend were more focused acquisitions. For example, Zynga spent $100 million to buy Peak Games’ card and board game studio while Australian outfit Animoca Brands sold its casual games in two tranches so it could focus on other areas of its operations.

This commodification of business – the mark of a maturing market – was also reflected in a healthy stream of mobile game companies floating on various stock exchanges. The largest by far was South Korean publisher Netmarble, which buoyed by the local success of its Lineage 2: Revolution game, raised over $2 billion from its IPO and is now valued at $15 billion.

Western activity was much smaller in terms of valuations, but Rovio (mcap $1 billion) and Next Games ($200 million) successfully listed in Finland, while Mag Interactive ($120 million) and Nitro Games ($10 million) listed in Sweden. Expect more in 2018.

PlayerUnknown’s Battlegrounds

Although not as relevant as in the world of PC/console gaming, PUBG, and by extension battle royale, did cast a shadow over mobile games in 2017.

As with so many trends, this one was concentrated in China, which as well as providing the biggest audience for PUBG is also the biggest mobile game market. Unsurprisingly then, by the end of the year, app stores were awash with PUBG clones. NetEase released five, including a Terminator II-branded game, while Tencent scooped the official mobile version of PUBG, and then announced another official spin-off.

However, given touchscreens are not a natural environment for shooters, nor the length of each PUBGsession a good match in terms of mobile usage, and not forgetting no-one has yet demonstrated a successful F2P battle royale game, it will be interesting to see whether this trend is one more about the ongoing rivalry between Tencent and NetEase for market share in China than fulfilling actual audience desire.

Death of ‘midcore’

It’s taken a couple of years but 2017 saw radical change at the top of the top grossing app store charts. Non-gaming subscription apps such as Pandora, Netflix and Tinder replaced the likes of Clash of Clans andGame of War, while the assault on now-aging midcore titles was reinforced by the rise of a new generation of casual games, particularly casual games more accessible for female audiences.

The most notable new release in this vein was Russian developer Playrix’s Homescapes, which swapped the match-3 garden-design setting of Gardenscapes for interior design and became a top 5 top grossing game across the west.

Turkish outfit Peak Games also built on previous success in the match-3 genre, with new game Toon Blastfollowing the path blazed by Toy Blast, while Glu Mobile stretched the definition of what could be considered a ‘game’ with its PVP interactive interior design app Design Home. Together with similar experience Covet Fashion, the two games now generate over 40 percent of the company’s sales.

Also notable in this regard were Pocket Gems’ interactive story app Episodes, and Pixelberry’s Choices. Both were top 20 top grossing US games throughout the year, with Pocket Gems stakeholder Tencent rewarding the company’s performance with an additional $90 million investment, and Nexon acquiring Pixelberry for an undisclosed amount.

But the biggest surprise was the reinvention of King’s Candy Crush Saga, which despite declining player numbers saw quarter-on-quarter growth in revenues as King got serious about live ops, better engaging with and monetizing its players.

Augmented reality gains traction

2017 was the year almost everyone in the mobile space ditched VR for AR.

It wasn’t a difficult decision either. With no sustainable market even for a mobile VR ecosystem in which mobile-compatible headsets such as Google’s Daydream and Samsung’s Gear VR boasted an install base of millions, the release of Apple’s ARKit-containing iOS 11 created an AR install base of 100 million devices overnight.

The result was a wave of rather gimmicky and typically paid AR games and apps on App Store; something that’s likely to be repeated on the Google Play store when Android equivalent ARCore is released in 2018.

Nevertheless, with AR now given-away-for-free with every new smartphone purchase, at least developers know they have a potential market to sell into. The balance between fad app and killer app will, no doubt, take time to judge but this time no-one will be able to blame failure on a lack of devices. (Source: gamasutra.com


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