原文作者：James Brightman 译者：Megan Shieh

回顾2017，游戏产业度过了精彩的一年。在为新年假期做准备的同时，我们很难不去想：“2018年的电子游戏产业将会是什么样子？”

《绝地求生》掀起了一股吃鸡热潮，任天堂宣告强势回归，《超级马里奥》和《塞尔达》新作高调亮相，PS4销量有望超过创造记录的PS2。得益于升级版主机Xbox One X的真4K画质和Xbox One S的价格下调，就连Xbox的业务都在这个节日里呈上升趋势。在3A游戏领域，《使命召唤14：二战》成为了自《使命召唤9：黑色行动II》以来最受欢迎的系列作品，动视以此向世界证明该IP始终宝刀未老；育碧公司用2017年新作《起源》为《刺客信条》注入了新的活力；Take Two在投资高端独立游戏的同时也不忘发展其自有业务。

那么在崭新的2018年里，我们该期待些什么？VR和电子竞技是否有望成为主流？任天堂能否守住Switch所创造的辉煌？会不会有新的硬件设备推出？没有人有肯定的答案。不过业内分析人士总是很愿意分享自己的看法，因此我们采访了几位业内专家，他们分享了自己的看法和预言。（游戏邦注部分受访者回顾了自己对2017年的预测以及相对的实际情况。）

Joost van Dreunen（市场调研公司SuperData首席执行官）

以下是我在2016年年底做出的预测以及2017年的实际情况：

保守估计，全球手游总收入在2017年将达到400亿美元。

传统发行商将会引领整个游戏市场。（这一预测并未全面实现，主要是因为亚洲地区涌现出了一批创新者。）

随着广告预算的增长，电子竞技将会经历一场压力测试，并最终发展成为一个媒体市场。（尽管电子竞技在2017年颇受欢迎，但却尚未发展成为我所预测的创收业务。）

动视暴雪和腾讯（Riot Games）将会通过出售转播权分别赚取2亿美元。（动视暴雪和Riot Games都成功实现了我预测的数额。）

VR杀手级应用将会问世。如果2016年是VR诞生的一年，2017年就将是VR正式起步的一年。(实际情况是，多数发行商巨头都避开了VR领域，不过得益于Play Station VR的200万台销量，VR领域的确在2017年实现了稳步增长。)

动视暴雪将在2017年获得1亿美元的广告收入。该公司目前正在King Digital旗下的一些小游戏上实验该计划，可能将在2017年中旬采取大范围行动。（这一预言仍然站得住脚，只是需要更多的时间。King Digital对其游戏目录的重新配置需要很长的时间才能完成。）

总的来说，我的预言在数量和公司方面都是正确的。

对2018年的预测：

亚马逊或将收购GameStop——主机硬件销量开始放缓，VR又不太可能在短期内取代游戏设备，GameStop这家大型零售商正被迫缩小业务范围。该公司在全球范围内拥有6100家游戏零售商店，可以帮助亚马逊将电子游戏和其他消费电子产品传递到千家万户，成为亚马逊全球战略的重要组成部分。

育碧也许会将少数股权出售给某家大型的亚洲游戏公司——由于整合仍是整个2018年欧洲媒体市场的主导趋势，虽然维旺迪最近对收购育碧的计划有所让步，但是他们不会放弃。育碧卖出少数股份能够确保持续的创作自由，同时在其近期成功的基础上再接再厉。

上市公司业务将被迫变得更加透明—“战利品盒子”风波以及今年年初的监管改革将会迫使游戏发行商更改他们的财务报告标准。

电子竞技迎来了生死存亡的时刻——经历了18个月的炒作，多数投资者都开始计划转手了。动视凭借《守望先锋》的成功被视为整个行业的领头羊(即使这没有多大意义，因为《反恐精英》和其他产品的有机增长要比精心制作的《守望先锋》更多)。不理性的投资者退出市场以后，电子竞技领域将凭借自身实力建立一种以用户为中心的良好体验、为广告商和平台创造价值，从而实现复苏。

广告收入在发行商总收入中所占份额将持续增长——数字游戏营收榜的前几名被大公司所占据，中等规模的发行商只好将目光投向广告以维持生计，这些公司15%-20%的收入都将来自广告，相比之下，小型发行商70%以上的收入将来自广告。

VR公司将继续把注意力从电子游戏转向企业应用——在没有杀手级应用和明确盈利计划的情况下，开发工作室将带着他们的专业知识转向其他行业并实行B2B战略。

苹果公司将会引入游戏订阅模式——在我看来，苹果可以通过创建专用的订阅模式，从而更好地将消费者与内容联系起来。Facebook已经针对儿童推出了新版Messenger Kids应用程序，我认为苹果公司也会效仿。例如，为儿童推出“自助餐”式的游戏订阅服务。以我个人为例，我非常乐意每月支付10美元，让我的孩子不再接触那些只因广告收入而存在的低质量游戏。

大型发行商在数字化零售方面将会越来越轻车熟路——以前的游戏公司一直依靠零售商来完成最终交易，数字游戏销量的日益增长使得发行公司在这一领域做得越来越好，尤其是规模较大的发行商。具体来说，为了继续提高利润率，游戏公司会在员工和技术方面做出投资，帮助处理价格差异化、库存管理和IAP优化等职责，取代传统零售模式。

Mat Piscatella（NPD集团）

随着游戏行业继续从产品模式转向在线服务模式，2018年的游戏行业将会进化，而不是变革。

订阅服务的增长-——2018年的订阅服务业务收入将呈指数增长。EA Access将进驻PS4，任天堂推出的在线服务将受到热烈欢迎，Xbox Game Pass等订阅服务将得到大力扩展和推广，全年都将有新的订阅服务推出。与PlayStation Plus和Xbox Live Gold等其他现有服务相结合，订阅服务将会成为2018年的一个显著增长领域。

Switch有望引领主机市场——2017年，任天堂的Switch在游戏数量，产品质量和主机销量上都超出了预期。我预计，这种势头将延续到2018年。在未来的一年里，Switch的硬件主机销量和零售软件相关收入将会遥遥领先。如果《Pokemon RPG》于2018年登陆Switch，那么我猜测许多家庭都会拥有多台Switch主机，从而提高传统主机的潜在上限。Switch已经准备好了要引领主机市场，毕竟PS4和Xbox One上市都已经六年了。

Switch掀起的这股淘金热将会带来新的挑战——任天堂的Switch在2017年取得了不可小觑的成就，但是新的挑战也会随之而来。一个是游戏店面。各种各样的游戏正在以疯狂的速度登陆Switch，随着时间的推移，这种速度只会加快而不会减缓。Switch必须找到方法让用户更轻松地找到他们喜欢的游戏，并且确保高质量的内容不会被埋没在疯狂的上架浪潮之中。尽管这种挑战的规模还远不及Steam，但是Switch必须将用户与他们感兴趣购买的eShop内容连接起来。

沉浸式VR游戏体验将继续处于挣扎状态——高端、沉浸式VR游戏的体验门槛对于大众消费者来说仍旧过高。2018年，VR硬件价格将继续下跌，然而销量却不会因此大幅度上涨，同时VR技术的目标也会不断变更。VR技术在移动领域拥有不可忽视的前景，在其他领域更是潜力无限。沉浸式VR游戏体验也许在未来某天会取得成功，但这个“未来”不会是2018年。

最后，我预计2018年将是PS4和Xbox One的间隔年，因为微软和索尼将在2019年公布新主机，并计划在2020年正式发售。经过了长达几年的挣扎，面对发行量和发行商数量的大幅下降之后，主机行业终于迎来了另一个春天。

Piers Harding-Rolls（市场分析机构IHS Markit的游戏研究主管）

我对2017年作出的预测以及相关实际情况：

游戏市场消费总额将在2017年达到1000亿美元。（实际上，当我们完成了2016年的实际数据统计之后，游戏市场已经打破了这个水平[1029亿美元]。所以算是部分猜中。）

PS4和XboxOne 2017年的全球总销量将达到2700万。（目前尚不清楚。）

Swith主机2017年的销量将达到约440万台。（预测错误，Swith的实际表现超出了我们的预期。）

任天堂将会推出一款新掌机。（部分猜中。任天堂正式公布了2DS掌机的升级版2DS XL，现已正式发售。但是没有关于下一代掌机的任何消息。）

微软可能会将Xbox One X的上架日期推迟到2018年，而且售价会比PS4 Pro高很多。（部分猜中。虽然微软成功地在2017年年底将Xbox One X上架，但Xbox One X的确比PS4 Pro贵很多。）

2017年，人们将越来越不看好VR技术。（没错，去年有众多新闻媒体报道VR技术“跌入低谷”。）

2017年将不会有任何重要的VR一体机在中国以外的地区上市。（正确。HTC的Vive Focus仅能在中国预购，Oculus Go目前还没上市。）

对2018年作出的预测：

游戏产业未来还会进一步增长——根据数据分析，我们预计2017年的全球游戏消费总额突破了1100亿美元，移动游戏为主要推动力。目前我们估计游戏产业将在2018年实现8%的进一步增长，推动其消费总额突破1200亿美元大关。此外我们预计移动游戏在游戏产业中的市场份额将突破50%，而在2008年，手游的市场份额仅占7%。

中国已经成为了全球最大的游戏市场，并且增长迅速，其中很大一部分归功于手游消费。在2017年的中国，手游取代PC成为了该国最大的游戏平台。我们预测，2018年的中国手游市场涨幅将突破300亿美元。

2018年的索尼，微软和任天堂——2017年可能是PS4硬件的销售高峰，销量预计在2018年会出现小幅度下跌。Xbox One X的上市将无法缩小微软和索尼的市场份额差距。Xbox One和PS4今年的主机硬件销量总和将会稍微低于2400万台，其中，PS4的销量将会比Xbox One超出两倍。

我不认为Switch的销量会在2018年超过PS4，但这也不是不可能。这在很大程度上将取决于Switch今年下半年的发布渠道、游戏数量、游戏的受众范围，以及捆绑和定价策略。此外，Switch有望于2018年在中国上市。

去年我们预测，2018年大部分主机游戏内容将会实现数字化(不包括订阅)，但是现在我们认为2019年将会成为一个转折点，届时数字分销将会成为主机内容的主要分销渠道。

氪金开箱引起的争议、《大逃杀》的过度杀伤力、Switch掀起的淘金热潮、腾讯进军海外市场的野心、AR内容的增长——我认为，主机游戏的氪金机制仍将继续引发争议，尤其考虑到在PC和手游领域，多数发行商已经转向了“游戏即服务”模式。虽然“战利品开箱机制”在大部分地区并未被视为赌博，然而监管机构仍会对那些利用氪金开箱机制来获取虚拟道具或皮肤的做法进行大规模打击。

2018年，“吃鸡游戏”将会达到一个饱和点，尤其是在中国。单单是腾讯公司就至少有7款吃鸡游戏，无论是已经上架的，还是正在开发中的，我认为其中一些产品可能最终会无法上市。

2017年，任天堂的Switch主机为许多发行商和独立游戏开发商带来了一个庞大的市场机遇，他们努力想要把握机会在竞争较少的时候通过移植游戏进入Switch市场，现在这个机会之窗正在迅速关闭。2017年11月和12月份分别有57和55款Switch游戏上架，足够说明2018年的Switch平台将会竞争激烈。

预计中国的游戏发行商巨头将会在2018年更加积极地实施扩张，腾讯和网易将加速将旗下手游产品输出到海外市场，也有可能对西方游戏公司进行进一步投资和并购。

最后，我估计AR应用程序消费总额将在2018年出现强劲增长。苹果ARKit和谷歌ARCore的推出，以及计划将在2018年推出的AR手游《哈利波特：巫师联盟》或将把AR应用程序（包括游戏）今年的消费总额推动到20亿美元。

其余预测——Steam商店在中国大陆可能被禁止访问；腾讯将把Wegam PC（游戏分销平台）扩展到中国以外的市场；一个或多个政府(除中国以外)决定，开发者对战利品箱机制/微交易的自我监管不起作用，并进行干预；《绝地求生》将成为2018年的电竞黑马，而非《守望先锋》。

Michael Pachter（韦德布什证券公司）

去年的预测成绩单：

PS4将在年前降至199美元。（A+，2017年索尼黑五超级大促期间PS4 Slim 1TB降至199美元。）

除了《荒野大嫖客2》之外，R星工作室不会在2017年再推出其他游戏。（A+）

动视用旗下工作室Sledgehammer制作的《现代战争》再现《使命召唤》的昔日辉煌。（B-，Sledgehammer的新作是《二战》，但我的预测是它不会是《高级战争》，而且动视肯定会想办法重新拉拢粉丝。）

《超级马里奥：跑酷》遭遇滑铁卢。(A+，任天堂在这款游戏的盈利模式上犯了战略性错误。)

《Pokemon Go》将会跌出各大国家排行榜的前十位。（D，这款游戏如今仍是许多大国的前十，不服不行。）

Switch将在17年9月脱销。（A-，9月底正常出货。）

Xbox Scorpio定价399美元。（错，实际定价为499美元。）

《上古卷轴》最新资料片将在17年推出。（错）

《半条命3》始终遥遥无期。（A）

对2018年作出的预测：

Xbox One X年底前降价至349美元——这台主机在想要升级硬件的Xbox铁杆粉丝中很受欢迎，但是由于PS4促销价直降到199美元，所以不好卖。

索尼、任天堂和微软将不会发布新硬件——该有的硬件市面上都有了，除了内置Joy-Con手柄的Switch之外，我不认为会有其他重制/升级硬件上市。

Play Station VR将大幅降价­——Oculus Rift VR再度降价至349美元，给索尼施加了一定的定价压力，预计PS4 Pro和PSVR的捆绑价格将降至599美元以下。

我对《上古卷轴6》仍然抱有希望——Bethesda工作室在17年的E3展会上给我们带来了惊喜，希望他们能在今年的E3再创辉煌。

《使命召唤》或将加入战术竞技模式——《绝地求生》将死亡竞赛推入了大众视野，《堡垒之夜》加入了战术竞技模式之后，销量明显提高，因此我认为明年Treyarch也会在《使命召唤》中加入该模式作为多人游戏的一部分。

Switch 2018年的总销量将低于2000万台——传言Switch每年可以卖出2500-3000万台，除非任天堂可以成功打入中国市场，否则根本不可能。我个人的预测是，Switch在西方市场的销量将低于1500万台左右，剩下的就要看中国了。

《魔兽争霸》手游——据说暴雪悄悄开发这款游戏已经有三年多了，尽管还没有正式宣布，但是我们可以期待在今年中旬看到这款游戏。

任天堂的移动业务将继续萎靡不振——他们似乎不懂得如何将IAP构建到他们的核心IP中去，比如《动物之森：口袋营地》的盈利情况就不是很乐观，接下来的产品估计也不会有太大提升。

R星工作室依然不会公布新的大作——等到《荒野大嫖客2》正式上架的时候，整个开发历程估计得有8个年头了。除了《午夜俱乐部》之外，R星不会公布其他新游戏，然而《午夜俱乐部》估计2019年才会正式发行，而且它也不算是一款大作。

Dr. Serkan Toto（东京游戏产业咨询公司Kantan Games联合创始人兼首席执行官）

2018年将是任天堂的又一个成功年——2017年对任天堂来说是扭亏为盈的一年，2018年还会更好。

3A和独立开发商越来越多的支持、虚拟主机功能的加入、在线服务和经典IP的重制（比如《马里奥制造》）将推动Switch成为2018年的主机畅销冠军。此外，任天堂也许会将Wii的许多经典游戏移植到Switch。

任天堂2017年在手游领域的进展比我想象中慢，但是我认为这种情况在2018年可能出现好转。该公司在智能手机领域存在巨大的潜力。

任天堂或将于2018年通过与腾讯(还能有谁)建立合作关系进入中国移动市场。

微软依然无法走出困境——和去年一样：我喜欢Xbox One，但是PS4的独占游戏阵容强大，微软与索尼的竞争将持续加大微软的压力。如果单单依靠Xbox One X的力量，微软将无法取得优势。除此之外，2018年网上可能会出现关于两家公司下一代主机的信息。

VR与AR——早在2017年，我就对VR进军大众市场持不看好态度，今年的态度也是一样。索尼必定会在今年推出新的PSVR设备，还有可能将价格下调，Xbox One可能会发布一些新硬件。但无论如何，VR还有很长的路要走。

关于AR技术在游戏领域的应用，我同样持不看好态度。我知道技术在进步，但是AR技术已经存在多年了，至今都没人开发出出色的内容。

续作、续作、续作——听起来可能有点马后炮，因为我们已经知道多款游戏续作将在2018年面世，但我的意思是，在这个基础上将会有更多的续作公布。主机游戏的开发和推广成本越来越高，因此我不认为2018年会有太多的3A开发商原意开发全新的主机游戏作品。所以今年不仅会有更多的续作，还会有更多的重制作品和“游戏即服务”模式的作品面世。

移动市场进一步整合——市场整合是手游领域2017年的主导趋势，我敢肯定，这一趋势会在2018年延续下去。会有更多的工作室面临倒闭或并购，移动游戏的总体质量将会持续上升。

《糖果粉碎传奇》、《部族冲突》或《智龙迷城》这样的手机巨作都将在2018年庆祝他们的六周年生日。

此外，我预计手游领域将会出现更多的并购活动，韩国和中国的游戏公司都将希望通过这种途径进入西方和日本市场。

本文由游戏邦编译，转载请注明来源，或咨询微信zhengjintiao

As we all get ready this week for the holiday break ahead, it’s hard not to think about the new year and how the games industry will continue to evolve. 2017 may have been a downright depressing year for many across the globe, but it was at least a fantastic year for games.

PUBG is driving plenty of excitement, Nintendo has come back in full force, Mario and Zelda are shining, and PlayStation 4 is selling almost as well as the PS2. Even the Xbox business is on the rise this holiday thanks to the new 4K-enabled One X and the lower-priced One S. On the AAA software side, Activision has proved that Call of Duty is nowhere near dead, having one of its best years since Black Ops II, Ubisoft has breathed new life into Assassin’s Creed with Origins, and Take-Two continues to hone its business while investing in high-end indies.

So what should we expect in the next 12 months? Can VR and esports show mainstream potential? Will Nintendo maintain its new Wii-like momentum? Will there be any new hardware announcements? No one knows for sure, but industry analysts always enjoy providing their forecasts and prognostications, so we’ve assembled our usual annual analyst panel to offer up some 2018 predictions and (in some cases) to evaluate their statementsfrom the last year. Below you’ll find predictions from SuperData’s Joost van Dreunen, NPD’s Mat Piscatella, IHS Markit’s Piers Harding-Rolls, Wedbush Securities’ Michael Pachter, and Kantan Games’ Dr. Serkan Toto.

Joost van Dreunen, SuperData

Last year I said:

Mobile gaming will reach $40 billion in worldwide revenues. Looks like $40B was conservative as mobile gaming is totaling $60B for 2017. The expectation that legacy publishers would figure out and lead this market, however, didn’t quite happen, mostly because of a surge in innovation coming from Asia.

Esports will undergo a real stress-test to become a media market as ad budgets grow… Activision Blizzard and Tencent (Riot Games) will generate around $200 million each from selling broadcasting rights. In spite of the hype this year, the development of esports into a revenue-based business is taking longer than expected. Both Activision and Riot did manage to make about the amounts I predicted.

VR finds its killer app. If 2016 is the year that consumer-ready VR was born, then 2017 will be the year that it starts teething. Large publishers have mostly stayed away from VR but with 2M units for the PSVR the category did grow steadily over 2017.

Activision will make $100 million in ad revenue… Activision is currently experimenting with some of King Digital’s minor titles and will roll this out further mid-2017. This one holds but needs more time. King’s retooling of its title inventory is taking the long way around.

Overall my predictions were in the right ballpark in terms of amounts and companies. But perhaps my enthusiasm for some of these changes led me to expect a shorter timeline than what happened in 2017.

This year:

Amazon buys GameStop - With console hardware starting to slow and VR unlikely to replace gaming as a product category in the short-term, the specialty retailer will be forced to reduce its footprint. The 6,100 retail outlets worldwide will play an important part in Amazon’s ability to deliver gaming and consumer electronics worldwide.

Ubisoft sells off a minority share to a large Asian game company - Because consolidation continues to be the dominant trend in the European media landscape throughout 2018, Vivendi won’t go away even if they’ve recently relented a bit on pursuing Ubisoft. The French publisher has other plans, however, and will sell off a piece to (1) ensure sustained creative freedom and (2) build on its recent successes.

Publicly traded firms are forced to become more transparent - On the wings of loot box drama and regulatory changes in early 2018, publishers will be forced to change their reporting standards (broader write-up here)

Esports has its do-or-die moment - After a solid 18 months of hype and easy money from investments, several stakeholders are on the hook to deliver. Activision’s success with its Overwatch League will be regarded as a bellwether for the entire industry (even if that doesn’t make a lot of sense because CS:GO and other titles are more organically grown than deliberately produced like Overwatch). With the eyes of the world on it, competitive gaming will be sluggish out the gate as a reconciliation sweeps the category (I’ve been throwing cold water on expectations for a while now). Recovery follows after uninformed investors exit the space and allow esports to grow on its own strength (building a great user-focused experience), creating value for advertisers and platforms.

Share of ad dollars as part of publisher revenue continues to grow - With the top of the digital charts dominated by a shrinking number of top firms, the industry’s middle class turns to advertising to pay its rent. Second-tier publishers will rely on ads for about 15%-20% of annual revenue, compared to 70%+ for smaller outfits.

VR companies continue to shift focus away from games to enterprise applications - In the absence of a killer app (which I predicted last year would happen but didn’t) and a clear consumer monetization path, dev studios take their expertise to other industries and pursue a B2B strategy.

Apple introduces game subscriptions - Maybe this is more of a want, but it seems to me that Apple can do a much better job connecting consumers to content by creating dedicated subscriptions. Facebook already created its own messenger for minors, so it stands to reason that Apple will follow suit with, for instance, a buffet-style subscription for kids games. I, for one, would gladly pay $10/month to not have my kid be exposed to all those low quality games that only exist because of ad revenue.

Big publishers become better at digital retail - Where previously game companies had relied on retailers to complete the final transaction, the growing success of digital sales has incentivized especially big firms to become better at this part of the process themselves. Specifically, to continue to drive their margins up, game companies will invest in staff and technology that will help activities traditionally handled by retailers, including price differentiation, inventory management, and in-app purchase optimization.

Mat Piscatella, The NPD Group

The coming year will be more evolutionary than revolutionary as the industry continues to shift from a product model to a live service one.

Growth in subscription services - Exponential revenue growth in this area is something I expect to see in 2018. I expect EA Access to make its way to the PlayStation 4, the launch of Nintendo’s online service to be warmly received, services like Xbox Game Pass to expand and be promoted heavily, and the launch of new subscription services throughout the year. Combined with other existing services like PlayStation Plus and Xbox Live Gold, subscription services will be a significant growth area in the year.

Switch to lead the console market - Nintendo Switch exceeded the expectations of many in both quality and quantity of released content as well as sales in 2017. I expect this momentum to carry over into 2018 and Switch to both sell the most hardware units as well as generate the most software revenues at retail over the coming year. Pokemon RPG for Switch is the true wild card. If Pokemon RPG for Switch releases in 2018, we could start seeing multiple Switch units per household, raising the potential ceiling on traditional console benchmarks. Even without that, however, Switch is poised to take market leadership as PlayStation 4 and Xbox One enter their 6th years in market.

Switch gold rush leads to discovery challenges - Nintendo Switch has been a fantastic success story of 2017, but with that success comes new challenges. One is the games storefront. Games are coming to Switch at a furious pace that will only increase over time. The Switch will be challenged to make discovering those games easier for consumers and to ensure quality content doesn’t get buried in the avalanche of releases. While it’s a long way from facing the same scale of challenges Steam is in this regard, Switch must connect consumers to the eShop content they’d enjoy buying and playing.

Immersive gaming VR will continue to struggle - The barriers to entry for mass market consumers to enter the high-end, immersive gaming VR space continues to be excessively high. From play pattern to price point to having necessary space available, immersive gaming VR will fail to exit its canyon of despair in 2018. Prices for hardware will continue to fall, but sales lifts will fail to follow. Game sales will continue to lag and goalposts for success will continue to shift. VR has an exciting present in mobile, and a bright future in many other use cases. Perhaps one day it will find success in immersive gaming. 2018, however, will not be that year.

Finally, I expect 2018 to be a bridge year for PlayStation 4 and Xbox One as a lead in to 2019 new console announcements for launch in 2020. After struggling for some time in the early part of the decade, and after facing significant declines in release and publisher count over that time, the console industry has since rebounded. I expect 2018 to follow the path set by a successful 2017.

Piers Harding-Rolls, IHS Markit

Last Year’s Predictions:

Games market would reach $100 billion in consumer spending in 2017 - Partially right. Actually when we completed our actuals for 2016 after this piece was published we’d already broken this level ($102.9bn).

PS4 and Xbox One global sell-through of 27 million in 2017 - Unknown at present. Our current end of year forecast is an adjusted 26 million for these two consoles combined.

Switch sell-through of around 4.4 million for 2017 - Wrong. Switch has well outperformed both mine (and, to be fair, Nintendo’s) pre-launch expectations. We upgraded our Switch forecast to 9.8 million for 2017 shortly after the strong launch. Our estimate currently sits at 11.7 million as of October.

Sign of a new Nintendo handheld - Partially right. We’ve had the 2DS remodel, which has elongated the lifecycle of the 3DS platform, but no news on a next-gen follow up.

Microsoft might miss its end of 2017 launch window for Xbox One X and launch at a price point significantly higher than PS4 Pro - Partially right. As we know Xbox One X didn’t miss its launch window but was priced at a significant premium to PS4 Pro.

Negative sentiment around VR to increase - Right. The number of ‘trough of disillusionment’ stories has increased significantly in 2017.

No major standalone VR headset launches outside of China in 2017 - Right. HTC’s Vive Focus is available for pre-order in China only and Oculus Go is not available yet.

This year:

Further growth to come - When the final tallies are pulled together early next year, IHS Markit is predicting world consumer spending on games to have broken $110 billion in 2017, with mobile games apps driving the most growth. In 2018, I expect the sector to deliver further growth of 8% propelling it to the $120 billion mark. Our outlook currently predicts that mobile games apps spending will break 50% share of the games market in 2018. Its share in 2008 was just 7%.

China is already the biggest games market and growing fast, much of this down to mobile spending. In China, mobile gaming is expected to overtake PC gaming as the biggest platform in 2017. In 2018, we forecast the China games market to break through the $30 billion level.

Sony, Microsoft, Nintendo in 2018 - I expect 2017 to be the peak year of PS4 hardware sales and for there to be a decline in 2018. At present, I do not expect the launch of the Xbox One X to narrow the gap in market share between Microsoft and Sony. Combined sales of Xbox One and PS4 consoles are predicted to be a little less than 24m in 2018, with Sony outselling Microsoft by over two times.

Currently, I do not expect Nintendo’s Switch to outsell PS4 next year, although it is not out of the question. Much will depend on the Switch release pipeline, availability of content which resonates with a wide audience and bundling or pricing strategies in the second half of 2018. I also expect Switch to launch in China in 2018.

Last year our outlook predicted that in 2018, a majority of games content spend on all consoles would be digital (excluding subscriptions). It will be very close in 2018, but we now expect 2019 to be the inflection point where digital becomes the main distribution channel for console content. Outlook has been altered somewhat by the strength of the less digitally-enabled Switch.

Loot box controversy, Battle Royale overkill, Switch’s gold rush, Tencent’s overseas ambition, AR content growth - In 2018 I think it’s inevitable that loot box use in console games will continue to stir controversy, especially as publishers shift their releases across to the games-as-a-service model already dominant in PC and mobile gaming.

I think it’s also inevitable that although loot boxes are not considered gambling, the unlicensed gambling of virtual items and currency with the ability to cash out the winnings will confuse assessment of their impact and use. As a result, I expect a big clampdown on sites that promote virtual item or skin gambling.

2018 is the year that we’ll hit saturation point for Battle Royale modes and titles. This is particularly true in China. Tencent has at least seven BR titles launched, licensed or in development, and I think it’s likely some of these won’t make it to market.

2017 was characterised by the opportunistic porting of content to Nintendo Switch as publishers and indie developers alike sought to take advantage of a hungry audience and limited competition. The window of opportunity is rapidly closing – 57 and 55 releases in November and December respectively suggests a much more competitive platform heading into 2018.

I predict that 2018 will be the year we see a much more expansionist strategy from China’s leading publishers. Tencent and NetEase are starting to globalise their mobile games output and that will escalate next year. Further investments and acquisitions of Western games companies are also on the cards.

Lastly, I expect there to be solid growth in augmented reality apps spend in 2018. The arrival of Apple’s ARKit and Google’s ARCore and the 2018 follow up to Pokemon Go – Harry Potter: Wizards Unite – should push AR apps (including games) spend over $2 billion in 2018.

Outside bets for 2018 - Steam to be banned in mainland China; Tencent to expand WeGame PC game distribution platform to markets outside China; one or more governments (outside of China) to decide that self-regulation of loot boxes/microtransactions is not working and intervene; PUBG to be the big esports story of 2018, not The Overwatch League.

Michael Pachter, Wedbush Securities

Last year’s report card:

PS4 to $199 before year-end (A+, happened over Black Friday weekend); No Rockstar games other than RDR2 (A+); CoD returns to glory with MW title from Sledgehammer (B-the title is WWII, but my “prediction” was that it would NOT be Advanced Warfare, and that Activision would endeavor to get fans back into the fold); Super Mario Run to flop (A+, Nintendo made a strategic error with Free to Start and the game flopped); Pokemon Go drops out of top 10 in every country with a population over 20 million (D, the game is top 10 in a handful of large countries still-I’m surprised at its staying power); the Switch is sold out through September (A-, supply showed up the last week of September); Xbox Scorpio priced at $399 (F, price was $499); the next Elder Scrolls installment comes out (F); the next Half Life does not (A).

This year:

Xbox One X price cut to $349 before year end - The box is popular among hardcore Xbox fans looking to upgrade, but is a tough sell with the PS4 having been discounted to $199 at holiday.
No new hardware from Sony, Nintendo or Microsoft - We have all the new devices we need, and other than perhaps a Switch with Joy Cons built in, I don’t see any further iterations of existing hardware.

A dramatic price cut on PSVR - Oculus at $349 is putting pressure on Sony to do something on the pricing, and I expect some kind of PSVR bundle with PS4 Pro at $599 or less.

I’m never giving up on Elder Scrolls - Bethesda surprised us with games at E3 in 2017, I expect them to do so again at the next E3.

Battle Royale mode in next year’s Call of Duty - Similar to what they’re rolling out in the Chinese free-to-play game, but offered on console in the West. PUBG popularized the deathmatch, Fortnite grew phenomenally when Battle Royale was added, and I think that Treyarch will add a Battle Royale mode to the game as part of the multiplayer next year.

Switch sales of under 20 million - I think rumors of 25 – 30 million units annually are crazy talk, unless somehow Nintendo achieves success in China. My bias is no more than 15 million units sold in the West, with any upside to that figure in China.

A mobile Warcraft game - Blizzard has purportedly been working on this for over three years, and notwithstanding that nothing has yet been formally announced, I think we’ll see the game by sometime mid-year.

Continued flops from Nintendo’s mobile effort - They don’t seem to know how to build in-game purchases into their core franchises, and I don’t see them making much progress with Animal Crossing. Whatever is next is likely to underwhelm.

No new BIG game announcements from Rockstar - RDR2 will have been in development for EIGHT YEARS by the time it comes out. I don’t expect an announcement of any new games in 2018 except for Midnight Club (good, but not a BIG game), and don’t think we’ll see that until 2019 (which will have taken TEN YEARS to develop).

Dr. Serkan Toto, Kantan Games

2018 will be another successful year for Nintendo - I think while 2017 has been called a turnaround year for Nintendo, 2018 will work even better for them.

The Switch will be 2018′s best-selling console, through increased support by triple-A developers and indies, a virtual console-like offering, the online service, and remakes of older titles (Mario Maker, for instance).

I would also not be surprised to see Nintendo bringing back a lot of the Wii classics to the Switch (which I think would make a lot of sense).

On mobile, 2017 has been slower than I predicted last year for Nintendo, but I think this might change in 2018. The company hasn’t even scratched the surface of what’s possible for it on smartphones.

I also predict a market entry for Nintendo in China in 2018, at the very least on mobile and through a partnership with Tencent (who else).

Microsoft will continue to struggle - Same as last year: I like the Xbox One, but I think Microsoft will continue to have a very difficult time against Sony. The PS4 simply has too many exclusive games slated for 2018, and there is no way big M can cover a lot of lost ground with the Xbox One X.

Apart from that, the first information or leaks could arrive next year regarding Sony and Microsoft’s next-generation consoles.

VR and AR - I was very pessimistic about VR for the mass market in 2017, and I believe VR will not break through in 2018 either. Sony will surely come up with a new PSVR headset, there will be price cuts and maybe some new hardware for the Xbox One – but VR needs more time.

About AR (in gaming), I am similarly pessimistic. I understand the tech is getting better, but AR in general has been here for years now: where is the great content? Will it be Niantic’s Harry Potter game?

Sequels, sequels, sequels - This may sound like a cheap one, as many sequels have already been announced to roll out in 2018, but my point is that we will see even more announced in the future. Development and marketing costs on console are going through the roof, and I don’t see many triple-A studios willing to experiment in 2018.

So I would not only expect more sequels but also more remakes, remasters and games-as-a-service offerings in 2018.

Further consolidation on mobile - 2017 was a year of consolidation in mobile gaming, and I have no doubt the trend will continue in 2018. We will certainly see more studios dying or joining forces, the general quality of mobile games going up and perhaps the one or other surprise arriving on smartphones. (i.e. from Nintendo).

It would be about time: after all, mobile mega hits like Candy Crush, Clash Of Clans or Japan’s Puzzle & Dragons will all celebrate their sixth anniversary in 2018.

Also, it’s safe to expect more M&A activity in the mobile game space in 2018, especially driven by Korean and Chinese companies wanting to expand to the West and Japan. （Source：gamesindustry.biz  ）