作者：Motoi Okamoto

去年我写了一些关于日本手机游戏市场的性质的文章，而今天我将向你们简单总结这一产业过去一年的发展趋势以及对于明年的预测。

1.任天堂和索尼在手机游戏领域的发展

2016年见证了主机平台的两大巨头任天堂和索尼强势进军手机游戏市场。

并且在2016年我们迎来了两款大受欢迎的游戏，即Niantic的《Pokemon Go》和任天堂的《超级马里奥跑酷》。它们都向世人展示了任天堂IP的强大吸引力。《Pokemon Go》在短短8周时间内便创造了5亿下载量，《超级马里奥跑酷》也在4天内便获得了4千万下载量。这两项纪录都让人非常惊讶。

同时，任天堂还计划在今年春天面向智能手机发行《动物之森》和《火焰裂纹》。虽然《超级马里奥跑酷》在销售方法上有些问题，但我认为这两款游戏将会使用一些更合适的盈利方式。

除此之外，其它主机平台所有者，如索尼早2016年4月于日本创办了子公司Forward Works以面向智能手机发行自己的IP游戏，这一新公司在去年12月举办了新闻发布会并向我们展示了一些即将发行的游戏，如《Shots Golf》，《Wild Arms》和《Arc the Lad》。

我们同时也不应该忘记Aniplex，即Sony Music Entertainment Japan旗下以动画和音乐为主营业务的公司。你是否听过《Fate / Grand Order》？这款手机RPG在过去一年甚至超越《Pokemon Go》稳居日本畅销游戏榜单前三的位置。这是一款融合了JRPG和视觉小说的游戏。

根据AppAnnie的报告，《Pokemon Go》在过去一年里赚取了9.5亿美元的收益。而如果是着眼于每月排行（游戏邦注：即iOS和Android的收入总和），我们会发现Aniplex的《Fate/Grand Order》的销量超过了《Pokemon Go》并在2016年12月位列第四。

2.PvP越来越受欢迎

据说在日本社交游戏产业中，比起PvP，日本在线玩家更倾向于合作型内容。但是在2016年，一些PvP游戏开始崛起，如《部落冲突》（策略游戏），《影之诗》（数字换式卡牌游戏），《游戏王：怪兽之决斗》（数字换式卡牌游戏）和《Shiro-Neko Tennis》（行动体育游戏）。

而就像《马里奥网球》是基于《超级玛丽兄弟》的世界，《Shiro-Neko Tennis》也是一款基于《Colopl Rune Story》（行动RPG）游戏世界的竞争型体育游戏。它突出了《Colopl Rune Story》中受欢迎的打网球元素。

当然了，这些全新趋势主要是受到像《部落冲突》和《炉石传说》等在全世界取得成功的PvP游戏的影响。它们的成功向开发者展示了西方和亚洲PvP游戏也能在日本手机市场获得成功的可能性。

但是如果这些游戏尝试着维持长期的成功，它们既需要留住那些对游戏充满热情的玩家，也要想办法去缓解玩家因为PvP比赛而产生的压力。

根据《部落冲突》在Google Play（日本）每个月的平均收益排名，你会发现其位置会随着时间而下跌。我并不打算在此分析导致这一情况的原因，但要想在日本市场保持PvP游戏的平衡并不是件简单的事。

第32.5名–3月

第44.6名–4月

第49.2名–5月

第74.3名–6月

第73.7名–7月

第87.2名–8月

第63.1名–9月

第61.4名–10月

第73.9名–11月

第97.6名–12月

第109.0名–1月（1月21日以前的数据）

数据来源：AndroDB

3.数字换式卡牌游戏的成功

就像上面提到的，数字换式卡牌游戏在日本市场取得了巨大的成功。这与20世纪90年代受到《万智牌》的影响而诞生的两款换式卡牌游戏《游戏王：怪兽之决斗》和《Pokemon》那时的情况很像。

而在2016年这类型游戏取得成功主要有三个原因。

1）那些在20世纪90年代热衷于换式卡牌游戏的青少年现在都长大成人了。

2）大约5年前，也就是梦宝谷和Gree的黄金时期，许多发行商在Konami发行了大获成功的游戏《驭龙者》后陆续发行了自己的纸牌游戏。所以现在许多开发者都可以使用来自这些游戏的资产。

3）就像之前提到的，在日本游戏产业有许多优秀的美术师和美术工作室能够绘制出非常精致的角色和怪兽图。

4.RPG的激烈竞争

大家都知道，RPG游戏在日本非常受欢迎。一般情况下RPG总是拥有较高的ARPU和销量。结果便是RPG游戏的竞争也变得更加激烈，且开发成本和广告费用也不断提升。

所以那些非IP游戏便更难在这一市场取得成功。

在PS4和PSVita的RPG游戏中，战斗系统也变得更加复杂了。游戏的展示通常都需要包含像开场动画，3D模式的战斗演示，完整的营销以及故事介绍等内容。

尽管许多充满热情的玩家一开始会专注于那些新游戏，但随着他们对于游戏玩法的需求不断增加，他们紧跟着便会转向其它新游戏了。

5.亚洲发行商的市场份额不断增加

众所周知，日本发行商在日本市场中占据着较高的市场份额，因为日本玩家拥有较特殊的喜好，所以要吸引这些玩家的注意并不是简单的事。总是有人说日本市场是较为封闭的市场。

但是，外国发行商在这里获得成功的案例正在不断增加着。去年，韩国和中国的发行商便在这里发行了像《七骑士》（Netmarble），《拳皇98终极之战》（OURPALM》和《HIT》（Nexon）等成功的游戏。

通常情况下，将亚洲在线游戏带到日本市场时，角色及其呈现，如图像与声音都是影响成功的关键元素。亚洲发行商也已经吸取了许多宝贵经验去吸引日本玩家的注意。

6.盈利方式的多元化

传统意义上，采用Gacha模式的日本手机免费游戏每隔两周或一个月便会引进全新单位到Gacha中。而频繁引进单位将导致开发者难以管理复杂的游戏平衡并最终导致单位性能的膨胀。

快速的单位性能膨胀

快速的单位性能膨胀将缩短用户单位发挥优势的时间并减少用户购买单位的欲望。较长一段时期内这一问题曾出现在一些游戏中。而相反地，数字换式卡牌游戏以较长的间隔（如3个月）为单位去引进全新单位。这也足以让开发者去调整游戏平衡了。

《Pokemon Go》便引进了一些全新的盈利方式，如Egg Incubator，Lure Module，Incense和Lucky Eggs。这款游戏的成功让那些还习惯于Gacha模式的游戏开发者大吃了一惊。

尽管日本手机游戏开发者自2000年以来已经开发了许多基于本土化的游戏，但是这些游戏都拥有较低ARPU并且大多数开发者都更倾向于开发基于Gacha模式的高ARPU游戏。

《超级马里奥跑酷》也是尝试去摆脱这一模式的一种勇敢的挑战。虽然我们很难去评判最终是否成功，但有些产业人士认为这是从日本手机市场的大多数用户那赚取收益的一种有效方式。

7.全新服务公司

像Mynet,funplex等专门提供在线游戏服务的全新公司都在快速发展着。这些公司并未自己开发在线游戏，而是去购买其它公司所开发的游戏。它们会去完善这些游戏的质量并从中获得更多利益。

这些公司能够避免开发游戏所面对的不可预知的风险。另一方面，开发者也能从自己游戏的销量中获取收益并投身于全新游戏的开发中。

在大多数在线游戏中，随着时间的流逝它们的销量将会逐渐下降，而当销量已经不能弥补服务成本时，开发者便会决定停止服务。如果开发者愿意将游戏卖给专门提供服务的公司，那么游戏的生命周期将获得延长，玩家也将能够继续游戏。

最近几年，在线游戏的购买与销售仍在快速发展着，这一市场已经是游戏产业中的“第二市场”了。一些公司也正在挤进这一市场。其中最显著的发展要属Mynet和funplex（GREE的子公司）这两家公司。

结论与预测

在2017年，上述趋势仍会持续着，并且外国公司在这一市场中的发展机遇也会继续扩展着。同时我还认为面向女性玩家的游戏将会大大增加。

（本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译，拒绝任何不保留版权的转发，如需转载请联系：游戏邦）

Latest Trends for 2016 and 2017 in the Japanese mobile game industry

by Motoi Okamoto

Last year, I wrote these articles about the nature of the Japanese mobile game market and so now I’ll briefly summarize the last year’s trends and this year’s forecast in the industry.

1. Nintendo and Sony advance in mobile games

2016 it will be remembered as the year that two console-platform-holders Nintendo and Sony advanced into mobile games market extensively.

The two BIG titles, Pokémon Go by Niantic, and Super Mario Run by Nintendo launched in 2016. They showed how the Nintendo IP is overwhelmingly popular. Pokémon Go got 500 million downloads within only 8 weeks and Super Mario Run got 40 million downloads within only 4 days. Both records are incredibly amazing!

Also, Nintendo has a plan to release Animal Crossing and Fire Emblem for Smartphone this spring. Super Mario Run had a problem with the selling method, but I think that these two titles will probably take a more suitable monetization method.

The other console-platform-holder, Sony (Sony Interactive Entertainment) established the subsidiary Forward Works having a strategy to provide their IP titles for smartphone in Japan in April 2016 and the new company held the press conference in December, showing some titles to be released like Hot Shots Golf, Wild Arms and Arc the Lad.

What we should not forget is Aniplex, a Japanese anime and music production owned Sony Music Entertainment Japan. Have you heard about Fate / Grand Order ? The mobile RPG got Top3 in grossing ranking in Japan beyond Pokémon Go last year. The game is designed as a brilliant fusion of JRPG and Visual Novel.

According to the report of the AppAnnie, Pokémon Go earned sales of $950 million last year! And so, look at this monthly ranking (sum of grossing in iOS and android). Aniplex’s Fate / Grand Order outperformed the sales of Pokémon Go and was ranked 4th in December 2016.

2. PvP is becoming popular

It has long been said in Japan’s social game industry that Japanese online gamers prefer cooperative to PvP. Nevertheless, in 2016 some PvP titles got a brilliant success like Clash Royale (Strategy), Shadowverse (Digital TCG), Yu-Gi-Oh! (Digital TCG) and Shiro-Neko Tennis (Action-Sports).

Just as Mario Tennis is based on the world of Super Mario Bros, Shiro-Neko Tennis is a competitive sports-game based on the world of Colopl Rune Story (Action-RPG). It features popular characters of Colopl Rune Story playing tennis.

Of course, the new trends are affected mainly by the success of worldwide PvP games like Clash Royale and Hearthstone. It shows the possibility that Western and Asia PvP games might be successful in Japan’s mobile market.

However, if those game titles try to keep their success in the long term, it is necessary to maintain users who are keen on getting enthusiastic about the game while relaxing the stress of the users who want to avoid the PvP match as much as they can be defeated.

Referring to Clash Royale’s monthly average of gross ranking on Google Play (Japan), you can see a decline over time. We have not conducted a detailed analysis on the cause, but steering the game balance of the PvP genre in Japan is not easy.

32.5th Mar
44.6th Apr
49.2th May
74.3th Jun
73.7th Jul
87.2th Aug
63.1 in Sep
61.4th Oct
73.9th Nov
97.6th Dec
109.0th Jan (until 21 Jan)
Source: Average Data from AndroDB

3. Success of Digital TCG

As mentioned above, Digital TCG titles got a great success in the market. It is similar to the phenomenon in the 1990s that Yu-Gi-Oh! TCG and Pokémon TCG were born from Japan due to the influence of Magic the Gathering, becoming very popular worldwide.

There are three reasons why digital TCG had a success in 2016.

a. Many teenagers who were crazy about the TCG in the 1990s become adult gamers.

b. Around five years ago, in the golden age of the Mobage and the Gree, many publishers released hundreds of card games following the ultra success of Dragon Collection by Konami. Now, many developers have assets of those titles.

c. As mentioned above, there are many excellent artists and art studios drawing attractive artworks of characters and monsters in the industry.

4. RPG genre is Red Ocean

As you all know, the RPG genre is very popular in Japan. In general, RPG tends to have a high ARPU and sales are large. As the result, competition in the RPG genre becomes more intense and development costs and advertising expenses have risen.
It is getting harder for Non-IP titles to succeed in the market.

The battle system has become complicated to the same extent as PS4 and PSVita’s RPG. The presentations are also luxurious including the opening animation movie, the battle represented by the 3D model, full-voice, story demonstration.

Although many passionate mobile gamers pay attention to the new titles in the first month, they play with greed and judge the deepness of the gameplay, and so move on to the next new titles.

5. Growth of Asian publisher’s share in the market

It is well known that Japanese Publishers occupy a high market share in the Japanese market, because Japanese gamers have distinctive preference and attracting to gamers is not easy. Therefore, the Japanese market is often said to be too closed market.

However, success stories of foreign publishers are increasing little by little. Last year, Korea’s and China’s publishers released some successful titles like Seven Knights (Netmarble), THE KING OF FIGHTERS ’98UM OL (OURPALM) and HIT (Nexon) in 2016.

In general, when bringing Asian online game titles to the Japanese market, characters and their presentations, for instance illustration and voice are very important for success. Asian publishers have been gaining much knowledge to attract Japanese users.

6. Diversification of monetization method

In traditional, Japan’s mobile F2P games adopting Gacha-model tend to introduce new units into Gacha every two weeks or month. Introducing units high frequently make it difficult to manage complicated game-balance and it tended to inflate unit performance.

Rapid inflation of unit performance shortens the practical period when the user’s unit exerts its strength and reduces the user’s willingness to purchase. It is the problem that happens in some titles over the medium to long term. On the other hand, Digital TCGs take longer interval like 3 months to introduce new units. It is a sufficient time to tune game balance.

Pokémon Go introduced some innovative monetization method like Egg Incubator, Lure Module, Incense and Lucky Eggs. The brilliant success of the game gave a surprise and impression to Japanese mobile game developers who usually adopt Gacha model.

Although Japanese mobile game developers have developed dozens of location-based games since 2000, those games tend to be low-ARPU and most of the developers prefer to develop high-ARPU Gacha model games.

Also, Super Mario Run is the courageous challenge to try out selling out model. It is hard to say the result is a success that meets expectations, but some industry people evaluate it as an approach to earning revenue from late-majority users in Japan’s mobile market.

7. New companies specialized in service

The new companies like Mynet, funplex and so on, specialized in providing online game service have been growing fast. Those companies don’t develop online games on its own, but purchase online games other companies are servicing. They improve the quality of them and get better revenue from them.

Those companies can avoid the big risk of developing games that are unpredictable whether to success or fail. On the other hand, developers get proceeds from the sale of their titles and can devote themselves to development of new titles.

In most online games, sales decline after several years, therefore when sales fall short of service cost, developers make a decision to stop their service. If instead of stopping the service you sell it to a company specialized in service, total life cycles of the game would be extended and all users could continue to play it.

Purchase and sale of online game title have expanded rapidly in recent years and its market is called “secondary market” in the industry. Several companies are entering the market. The most remarkable growth is the two companies of Mynet and funplex (GREE’s subsidiary).

Conclusion and forecast

The above trend continues this year and chances for foreign companies are expanding. And one more I forecast that games for women will increase considerably.

Thank you for reading this to the end. I hope this article gives you valuable insights. Ask me in the comments If you have questions about this article.(source:gamasutra)