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《Pokemon Go》对于AR/VR产业的影响

发布时间:2016-08-19 16:21:12 Tags:,,,,

作者:Tim Merel

纯粹主义者可能会说:“不要再说《Pokemon Go》是AR了!“但谁会去在乎你是如何描述一个如此成功的作品呢?只要为其鼓掌就好了。而今天我们想要讨论的是AR主流化对于AR/VR产业的影响?

并没有所谓的负面影响

《Pokemon Go》是AR/VR领域中人们所等待的特殊内容,但似乎它与所有人所期待的也并不相同。它并非来自未来的空间眼镜,它并不是什么高科技,它并不需要全新硬件的支持,它还是免费的。那我们能从中看到什么呢?

说实话,尽管《Pokemon Go》的开发者Niantic不这么做,来自用户强大的需求量也足以在游戏发行的时候让服务器陷入瘫痪状态了。

关于《Pokemon Go》最突出的地方便是世界各地从8到80岁的无数玩家都在玩这款游戏,或者他们会带着好奇去观看别人游戏或打听别人的古怪经历。AR/VR不再是产业中的人士才认识的对象了,它们在不到一周的时间里便成为一种主流现象,和大多数产业内部人士所预测的几年发展时间相比真的快了不只一大截。

所以为什么《Pokemon Go》会如此成功呢?

定位,定位,定位

首先,Pokemon在我们心中有着非常重要的地位。千禧一代是伴随着它长大的,而他们那“被遗忘的一代(即出生于1970年代的人)”的父母和婴儿潮时代的祖父母则是看着Pokemon的电视节目长大的。所以这是一个无处不在的品牌。

其次,它出现在一个普及度极高的平台上。今年,智能手机和平板电脑移动宽带的订阅量已经达到了40亿了。所以这是一个无处不在的平台。

再而便是快速的核心用户循环。这不再是你在孩童时期玩的Pokemon了。它拥有更强大的易用性。所以它的核心用户循环适合所有玩家。

最后则是非常纯粹的手机体验。玩家可以在任何地方玩这款游戏,这也是玩家选择完这款游戏的原因。而这不只是《Pokemon Go》成功的原因,也是所有AR成功的原因。扩增现实的本质是移动性,而移动性也在过去几十年里推动着技术革新的快速发展。

AR是来自火星而VR则是来自金星

而纯粹主义论者仍会告诉你“《Pokemon Go》并不是AR”。这到底是对还是错呢?

让我们重新审视一些定义。虚拟现实是将用户置于虚拟世界中并让他们沉浸于此。扩增现实则是将虚拟对象与用户的现实世界重叠在一起并去扩增它。而尽管和AR相关,但是混合现实能够将可靠的虚拟对象整合到用户的现实世界中。所以在用户看来它们会是真实的。

Digi-Capital Reality Matrix(from gamasutra)

Digi-Capital Reality Matrix(from gamasutra)

但是比起表面看来这些技术却是不同的。Digi-Capital的Reality Matrix使用了一些基本定义去划分市场:

虚拟:现实世界被封闭起来(例如用户只能看到虚拟世界和虚拟对象)

扩增:现实世界并不会被封闭(例如用户可以看到现实世界也可以看到虚拟对象)

沉浸感:技术驱动器将哄骗用户的大脑让它做出那就是真实体验的反应

周围环境:一种或多种技术驱动器并不能提供和沉浸感一般的体验(这特别适合用于某些AR)

Reality Matrix是由4个部分所组成,并且它们都包含了一些玩家操作内容去满足不同的用户需求:

主机/PC VR让用户在海底的虚拟鲸鱼朝着他们游过去的时候能够往旁边闪开(例如HTC Vive,Oculus,PlayStation VR)

手机VR能够提供一种非常酷的VR体验,但因为位置追踪等主要驱动器使得它的沉浸感并不会特别强(例如samsung Gear VR,Google Cardboard和Daydream)

扩增现实既包括等同于在现实世界光天化日之下看到的基于透明虚拟对象的钢铁侠全息显示(例如Atheer),也包括智能手机/平板电脑的“魔窗”AR(例如Google Project Tango)

混合现实(MR)将提供给用户会真正出现在现实世界光天化日之下的虚拟对象(例如Microsoft HoloLens,Magic Leap,Meta)或能够在AR和VR间切换的内容(例如ODG)

但是《Pokemon Go》属于什么呢?

它就是扩增现实,但并不是我们所理解的那样

这里的内容可能会让纯粹主义论者感到沮丧,不过我还是要继续说下去。

《Pokemon Go》是AR。它只是其中的一个基础版本。

从很多层面来看,《Pokemon Go》只是一种基于定位的娱乐方式,并不是产业人士传统意义上的AR。但这恰恰就是关键。因为这不再是关于产业人士的观点。这变成了一种公众认知。

即公众认为《Pokemon Go》是AR,它就是AR。

当你在附近街区和朋友一起四处走动寻找Pokemon时,你是如何描述这款游戏变得一点都不重要。你不会在乎这样的技术是否过时(游戏邦注:如GPS,计时器,照相机)。你也不会在乎这里没有神奇的光,SLAM(即时定位与地图构建)或先进的计算机视觉效果等高科技产物。对的,所有的这一切都会变得不那么重要。

因为这款游戏很有趣。你能在任何地方玩这款游戏。而不管你是否这么想,人们就是认为这是AR。所以就接受它吧。

云淡风轻

所以《Pokemon Go》对于AR/VR的开发来说意味着什么?

从消费者的接受度来看,它可说是绝无仅有的。那些不知道或者好几年没尝试过VR/AR/MR的人现在都沉浸于这个市场中。这对于产业来说是非常有益的,因为这已经演变成一种大众市场消费者意识了。

而对于应用开发者来说,所有人都在思考着是否该搭上这艘巨轮。那些对是否该投身VR/AR/MR的人逐渐开始改变想法了。一些初露头角的工程师也决定投身这一领域。而人才的流入对于这一市场的帮助可是巨大的。

对于核心VR/AR/MR技术公司来说,《Pokemon Go》对于技术的开发并未产生太大的影响。他们所面对的挑战还摆在那,AR也仍然需要巧妙结合设备,较长的电池寿命,手机性能,强大的应用生态系统等等。

对于投资者来说,他们真的既兴奋又困惑。《Pokemon Go》的确是一个让所有人都希望去尝试的特殊内容。但从规模上来看它是难以复制的。所以尽管现在市场上关于这款游戏的消息比比皆是,但是那些潜在的VC却仍处于谨慎的观察状态。

苹果的首席执行官Tim Cook这么说道:“AR真的可以非常强大。我们已经在这里投入许多并且仍会继续下去。我们已经热衷于这项事业非常长一段时间了。我们认为这里存在非常适合消费者的内容,并且这里也拥有着巨大的商业机遇。”

或许对于Pokemon来说这只是向前迈出的一小步,但是对于整个产业来说这却是一次巨大的飞跃。

本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译,拒绝任何不保留版权的转发,如需转载请联系:游戏邦

Pokémon Go changes everything (and nothing) for AR/VR

by Tim Merel

“Stop calling Pokémon Go AR” say the purists. But who cares what you call something that is so successful? Just be glad it happened, and let’s figure out what the mainstreaming of AR means for the AR/VR industry.

There is no such thing as bad publicity

Well actually there is. Google Glass. Enough said.

Pokémon Go is the singularity for AR/VR that everyone was waiting for, but looks very different to what everyone expected. It isn’t space glasses from the future, it isn’t high tech, it doesn’t require new hardware, and it’s free. Who saw that coming?

It would be fair to say that not even Pokémon Go’s developer Niantic did, as despite their enormous success, the overwhelming demand from users led to reports of significant server downtime at launch (not helped by DDoS attacks).

But the great thing about Pokémon Go is that hundreds of millions of consumers from 8 to 80 year olds have played it worldwide, watched others play it with bemusement, or read about odd experiences with it in the miles of column inches and vast numbers of electrons devoted to it by mainstream media. AR/VR is no longer the creature of industry insiders, innovators and early adopters (or TechCrunch readers). AR/VR became a mainstream phenomenon in less than a week, and it did so years before the most bullish industry insiders thought it would (us included).

So why has Pokémon Go been so successful?

Location, location, location
First, Pokémon has a treasured place in our hearts. Millennials grew up with it, watched by doting Generation X parents and Baby Boomer grandparents. So a brand that is everywhere.

Second, a pervasive platform. We’re approaching 4 billion smartphone and tablet mobile broadband subscriptions this year. So a platform that is everywhere.

Third, a fast core user loop. It’s not the Pokémon you played as a kid. It’s even more accessible. So a core user loop that works for everyone.

Fourth, a purely mobile experience. You can play it wherever you go, and wherever you go is part of why you play it. And that’s key not just to the success of Pokémon Go, but the success of all AR. Augmented reality is inherently mobile, and mobility has driven much of the tech innovation of the last decade.

AR is from Mars, VR is from Venus

But still the purists will tell you “Pokémon Go is not AR”. So are they right or wrong?

Let’s revisit some definitions. Virtual reality places users inside the virtual world, immersing them. Augmented reality overlays virtual objects on the user’s real world, augmenting it. Although closely related to AR, mixed reality anchors apparently solid virtual objects in the user’s real world. So they appear to the user as real. So far, so simple.

But the technology is a bit more diverse than it first appears. Digi-Capital’s Reality Matrix segments the market using a few basic definitions:

Virtual: real world is blocked out (i.e. user can only see the virtual world and virtual objects)

Augmented: real world is not blocked out (i.e. user can see the real world and virtual objects)

Immersive: the technology drivers (too deep into the weeds – see more here) combine to trick the user’s brain into reacting as though it was a real experience

Ambient: one or more of the technology drivers doesn’t provide the same level of experience as Immersive (Note: this may be desirable, particularly for some Augmented Reality applications)

The Reality Matrix is made up of four sectors, with some players operating across them to meet different user needs:

Console/PC VR makes users jump out of the way when a virtual whale swims towards them under the sea (e.g. HTC Vive, Oculus, Playstation VR)

Mobile VR provides a very good VR experience, but isn’t as immersive because of key drivers like positional tracking (e.g. Samsung Gear VR, Google Cardboard and Daydream)

Augmented Reality ranges from the equivalent of Iron Man’s holographic display with transparent virtual objects in the real world in daylight (e.g. Atheer) to smartphone/tablet “magic window” AR (e.g. Google Project Tango)

Mixed Reality (“MR”) gives users virtual objects that appear solid in the real world in daylight (e.g. Microsoft HoloLens, Magic Leap, Meta), or switches easily between AR and VR (e.g. ODG)

But where does this leave Pokémon Go?

It’s augmented reality Jim, but not as we know it

Here’s the bit where the purists get upset (and not just by the Star Trek misquote from The Firm). So I’m just going to say it.

Pokémon Go is AR. Just a really basic version of it.

In many ways Pokémon Go is only location based entertainment, and not AR in the way that industry folks think about it. But that’s the point. This is no longer about industry folks. It’s about public perception.

And the public thinks Pokémon Go is AR. So it is.

What you call it doesn’t matter when you’re walking around the neighborhood with your friends hunting Pokémon. It doesn’t matter that the tech is old school (GPS, clock, camera). It doesn’t matter that there are no fancy optics, SLAM (Simultaneous Localization and Mapping), advanced computer vision or other tech wizardry involved. None of that matters.

Because it’s fun. And it’s everywhere. And folks think it’s AR whether you like it or not. So deal with it.

Everything and nothing

So what does Pokémon Go mean for the development of AR/VR?

In terms of consumer acceptance, it’s monumental. People who wouldn’t have been aware of or have tried VR/AR/MR for years are actively engaged with the market today. It’s stupendously good for the industry, because there’s now mass market consumer awareness.

For app developers, everyone is scrambling to figure out whether or not they can get on the bandwagon. Folks who were on the fence about devoting resources to VR/AR/MR are now at least thinking about it. And budding engineers in the making who are deciding what they’ll do with their careers are being influenced by it. For talent flowing into the market that’s hugely helpful.

For core VR/AR/MR technology companies (i.e. the hardware guys), Pokémon Go has had little impact on how the technology is being developed. All the challenges remain, and AR still needs that magic combination of hero device, long battery life, cellular capability, strong app ecosystem and telco cross-subsidization before it can really take off (around 2018 based on current roadmaps).

For investors, it’s been both very exciting and highly confusing. Pokémon Go is a very specific application with a lot going for it. Hard to replicate at scale. Nintendo stock has looked more like a yoyo than a Pokéball. So while there is more buzz around the market than already existed (if that’s even possible), the underlying thinking of VCs is broadly unchanged.

Apple CEO Tim Cook said it best, “AR can be really great. And we have been and continue to invest a lot in this. We are high on AR for the long run. We think there are great things for customers and a great commercial opportunity…it will be huge.”

One small step for Pokémon, one giant leap for Poké-kind.(source:Gamasutra

 


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