作者：Bryan Cashman

虽然VR产业拥有一个强大的开始，但是在真正成功前还需要走很长的一段路。对于VR发展的兴奋是真实且理性的—-我们最终将在市场上看到真正强大的VR硬件，在今年年底消费者也将收到更出色的头盔。但事实上在市场上还有许多未被解决的挑战在等着我们。

当我们把所有平台结合在一起时我们便拥有了一个强大的市场

乍看之下VR游戏市场好像非常强大。SuperData Research估计到今年年底市场上将出现720万台VR头盔。让我们与2013年底进行比较，即索尼发布PlayStation 4的第一年，那时候市场上只有420万台主机。所以2016年对VR来说将是鼎盛发展的一年，这也将吸引广大开发者前来关注这一平台。

尽管这些数值需要被分配到4大平台上，即HTC Vive，三星Gear，PlayStation VR和Oculus Rift，但它们还是非常有意义的，特别是对于使用中间件的开发者来说，这能够有效缓解它们在每个平台上所面对的开发挑战。

而如果没有一个明确的市场领导者，那么在VR的初始阶段开发者可能会非常谨慎地去对待一个特殊VR平台的硬件优势。虽然Vive拥有完整的VR体验，但是在目前我们却很难去正视该平台的研发成本。

VR-Hardware-Sales(from gamasutra)

如今VR拥有者非常多元化

VR在游戏制作人面前呈现了一大挑战，即跨越不同平台的VR所有者拥有各种不同的需求。

今年一半的VR单位是面向三星Gear，并且有些设备是用户购买其它三星硬件后免费获得的。这些免费设备的所有者可能不是那些会去购买创意独立游戏的人，更别提他们会去购买那些更加活跃的硬核游戏了。

尽管Gear是大多数消费者进入VR世界（和Oculus生态系统）的入口，但是Oculus Rift的所有者可能拥有不同的需求。那些愿意花600美元去购买VR头盔，并通过了“确保你的Windows PC准备好迎接Rift！”的测试的人便非常有可能是资深游戏玩家，并且他们已经做好拥抱活跃的硬核游戏体验以及基于全新游戏方式的VR。他们也会去期待那些需要较高制作成本的高制作价值的内容。

最后，对于那些拥有PlayStation 4的VR追随者来说，PlayStation VR将会是最佳选择，但是他们是否也能够接受基于简单VR附件的传统PS4游戏呢，还是他们希望看到一些全新内容？

Sony Interactive Entertainment董事长Andrew House认为VR游戏玩家想要的是极小的体验。他说道：“我发现VR游戏非常大的一个优势便是区别于传统游戏体验，即虽然它们提供的是非常简单的机制和体验，但却因为呈献给玩家全新的游戏方式，所以仍然能够带给玩家很大的乐趣。我认为这便是真正的潜力所在。”

对于游戏开发者或发行商来说，分散的消费者基础是非常大的游戏挑战，这是最近一些发行主管一直在强调的问题。

只专注于一个平台并不是一种机智的做法

鉴于每个VR平台上的消费者的不同，并且这些平台也都具有不同的技术潜能，所以有些开发者会认为在最初发行时只瞄准一个平台能够创造出更好的结果。但是从商业角度来看这却是不可取的。

关于2016年VR的销量，Gear卖出了350万台，PlayStation VR卖出了260万台，Vive和Rift则分享着剩下的110万的销量。

VR暂时还不会变得非常庞大

有人会说VR还处于早期发展阶段，明年的VR将变得更加庞大，后年则会更更庞大，而它最终将成为游戏领域的一场硬件大改革，就像最初的家庭主机，模拟器或在线游戏那样。所有的这些都有可能是对的。我不会去质疑VR最终是否会成为我们参与所有娱乐的方式以及它是否会成为我们彼此互动的主要形式。但不管是今年，明年还是后年都不会以科幻作品为基础。事实上这个平台要想变得更加成熟还需要走很长很长的一段路。

虽然在今年便拥有700万耳机销量是个很惊人的数值，但除了那些早前的接受者外，还有多少人会购买VR头盔呢？毕竟成为主流平台才是其终极目标。

VR平台的销量需要越过主流成功的鸿沟，即它们需要进入一个文化思潮，在这里所有人都希望将其带到自己的家中。为了做到这点VR需要先解决无数挑战，而今天的硬件并不能带给它们帮助。

谁对此感到了厌倦？

我已经使用了VR很多年，但是在上个月之前，即在索尼的E3展位上玩《生化危机》前，我从未对此感到厌倦。并且最近我也发现不只有我有这种想法。实际上在今天，即在VR接受了大量研发投资后，很多人开始对玩VR感到厌倦了。如果追随者都感到厌倦并将其表现出来，那那些主流消费者又怎么会去尝试VR呢？

消费者总是喜欢尝试新鲜事物，他们都热爱创新。所以在成为人们玩游戏的全新选择前VR还有很长的一段路要走。

最后一个关卡总是很难

即使VR体验很完美，但是在安装量大到能够满足高预算的游戏之前它们还有许多需要克服的挑战。

今天，主流消费者们对于VR的认识还不多。根据SuperData Research，一半的消费者并未对VR感兴趣，或者他们甚至还不知道什么是VR。

3D头盔其实是与今天的技术趋势相对立的。现在的人们想要的是随时能够马上获得满足感。比起计算机或者电视，许多人会花更多钱在自己的智能手机和平板电脑上。技术消费趋势也逐渐朝着可携带性转移。

但是VR却是一种固定且封闭的体验。该活动本身看起来就是非社交型的。

关于VR的最后一个障碍便是成本。成本曲线将会趋于好转，耳机的价格也会变得更低，但与此同时营销规格却会持续提高成本，从而也将进一步阻碍产品整体价格的下降。虽然PlayStation 4和Xbox One的强大主机版本能够呈现更加强大的VR体验，但却只有能够接受这些系统更高价格的人才有资格享有这样的体验。

《摇滚乐团》和《吉他英雄》便向我们证实了，除了购买主机外，大量用户也愿意花几百美元去购买激动人心的社交体验。

尽管VR拥有一个很好的起步，但是前面所摆着的挑战也是不容小觑的。在E3展会上我所见到的许多人都表示虽然VR是一个必然事件，但事实却有可能发生变化。让我们期待VR之后真正的发展，并共同去推动VR发挥其最大的潜能。

（本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译，拒绝任何不保留版权的转发，如需转载请联系：游戏邦）

Why VR Excitement Needs to Come Back to Reality

by Bryan Cashman

The VR industry is off to a strong start, but has a long way to go before being a success. The excitement is real and rational – we finally have strong VR hardware on the market, and by the end of the year consumers will have even better headsets. But looking at VR without emotion reveals a market with a number of challenges that may never be resolved.

We have quite the market, when we combine all platforms

At a first glance, the market for VR games seems strong. SuperData Research is expecting 7.2 million VR headsets to be on the market by the end of the year. To put that in comparison, by the end of 2013, Sony’s first year with Playstation 4, there were only 4.2 million consoles on the market. VR will have a big 2016, and finally a market size where developers can begin to focus on the platform.

While those numbers are divided among four platforms: HTC Vive, Samsung Gear, Playstation VR and Oculus Rift, they are still meaningful, especially for developers working with middleware that can help ease development challenges across each device.

However, without a clear market leader, and with VR in its infancy, developers may be overly cautious to develop to the hardware strengths of one particular VR platform over the other. As great as Vive’s full-room VR experience is, it may be hard to focus R&D dollars on the platform until future growth.

Today’s VR owners are diverse

Game makers are posed with a challenge across VR, as owners across platforms have wildly different needs.

Half of the projected VR units on the market this year will be for Samsung Gear, some of which will be in the hands of consumers as free giveaways with the purchase of other Samsung hardware. These freebie owners may not be the type to buy innovative creative indie titles, let alone vibrant and chaotic core games.

While Gear is clearly the entry-point for most consumers into the VR world (and the Oculus ecosystem), owners of the Oculus Rift will have different demands. Users who dish out $600 for the VR headset, and who also pass the “Make sure your Windows PC is Rift Ready!” test, will likely be gaming veterans, and ready to spend on vibrant core gaming experiences and innovative VR sessions that provide a new way of gaming. They may also be expecting high production value content that is expensive to produce.

Last, Playstation VR will be an obvious choice for VR enthusiasts who own Playstation 4, but will they accept traditional PS4 games with simple VR-additions, or will they want something new?

Andrew House, President of Sony Interactive Entertainment, thinks VR gamers will want bite-sized experiences. “The big positive I do see for VR [games] is that unlike conventional game experiences – which tend to be similar to blockbusters in terms of production values and complex game mechanics- they can offer simple mechanics and experiences that are still very, very enjoyable because they can give users something they’ve never done before,” said House. “That, I think, is where its true potential lies.”

As a game developer or publisher, the fragmented consumer base makes investing in a big game challenging, something recently reiterated by a number of publisher executives.

Focusing on one platform is not commercially viable

Given the disparities in consumers across each VR platform, and their different technical capabilities, one might think targeting one platform for an initial release will help a developer focus best for a game’s release. However, commercially that option is not viable.

To restate 2016’s estimated VR sales, we have Gear selling 3.5 million units, Playstation VR selling 2.6 million units, and Vive and Rift sharing the remaining 1.1 million hardware purchases.

Those are tiny markets for a developer or publisher to focus on exclusively. A market of a few million potential customers, of which absolute best case only 20% of those will buy your game, is not enough to enable exclusive games. A look at these numbers easily explains why companies like Oculus are more than willing to heavily subsidize VR development in exchange for exclusivity. Otherwise, the numbers do not work for developers.

VR isn’t going to be huge for some time

Some will comment below that VR is still early, and that VR will be bigger next year, and bigger the next, and that it will eventually become a truly viable hardware revolution for gaming, akin to the first home console, the analog stick, or to online gaming. All of this may be true. I am not questioning whether VR will eventually be the way we participate in all of our entertainment, and whether it will be a primary form of how we interact with others. But this year, and next year, and the year after, are not built on the works of science fiction. They are built on the reality of a platform that has a long way to go to maturity.

Seven million headset sales this year is fantastic, but beyond early adopters, how many more will purchase VR headsets, with an end goal of of mainstream adoption?

VR platform sales have to leap ahead of a chasm for mainstream success, with which they enter the cultural zeitgeist not as humorous sci-fi technology, but as a welcome addition to everyone’s home. To get there, VR has a number of challenges to solve, and today’s hardware doesn’t provide the answers.

Who’s Sick of Hearing This One?

I used VR for years and didn’t truly feel sick until last month, while playing Resident Evil in Sony’s E3 booth. I recently learned that I wasn’t alone. It is a fact that today, even after significant investment in R&D, some people feel nauseous while playing VR. If enthusiasts are sick, and writing about it, how will mainstream consumers feel about trying VR?

Consumers love trying new things, they love innovation. A search for the novel is every music agent’s job. But no consumer wants to throw up, and as crazy and unrealistic as it is that it will actually happen, it’s enough of a barrier to keep many people away. VR has a long way to go before it can replace the images of everyone’s grandmas playing Wii Sports.

That Last Level is Hard

Even if the VR experience is perfected, and a joy to play for most, there are still significant hurdles before the install base grows enough to satisfy big budget titles, or even the focus of smaller developers who can only bet on one game at a time.

Today, the mainstream consumer knows little of VR. Half of consumers surveyed by SuperData Research aren’t interested in VR, or don’t even know what VR is.

And it’s hardly proven that consumers in general will want VR. 3D headsets are completely counter to today’s technology trends. People today want instant gratification, everywhere. Many people spend more dollars on their smartphones and tablets than they do on their computers, or even their televisions. Technology spending continues to move towards portability.

Yet VR is a stationary and closed experience. It’s no wonder why Oculus staff tried distracting me twice while taking photos at their booth. The activity itself looks unsocial.

Let’s take a step back and laugh and then ask if this is currently in shape to be a mainstream product. #VR #e3 pic.twitter.com/7bJyH5lLb4

— Bryan Cashman (@consulgamer) June 16, 2016

The last hurdle for VR is cost. Cost curves will improve, and headsets will get cheaper, but at the same time, hardware specs will continue to improve and increases costs, preventing overall price tags from dropping. The unprecedented announcements of enhanced console editions for Playstation 4 and Xbox One will enable stronger VR experiences, but only to those who can pay the higher price tag of those systems.

Rock Band and Guitar Hero proved large audience would spend a few hundred dollars, in addition to purchasing their consoles, for a social and striking experience. Microsoft managed to sell (at minimum) 24 million Kinect cameras for 360, although many were bundled with the hardware. Still, neither could sustain consumer interest for multiple years, and all are largely abandoned platforms today.

While VR is off to a good start, the challenges ahead are immense. At E3, many I met talked of VR as a sure thing, but the reality is much different. Let’s take our goggles off for a few to look at where VR really is, and to see what we can do to help VR reach its full potential. （source：Gamasutra）