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分析《Flappy Bird》的日常收益瓶颈

发布时间:2014-02-07 11:20:39 Tags:,,,

作者:Jon Jordan

如果说还有什么事比玩《Flappy Bird》更有趣的,那么就是分析《Flappy Bird》。

我们曾经讨论过有关这款游戏的方方面面,从它在世界各地的成功到它对业界的影响,但还没有谈到另一个话题。

但在我们进入正题以前,我们必须更正本文开头的第一句话“如果说还有什么事比玩《Flappy Bird》更有趣的……”

当然,这款游戏的成功是建立在这个事实之上的——《Flappy Bird》是一款非常令人失望的游戏,玩家们(比如我)很快就卸载它,或者忍着失望勉强玩到两位数的得分。

就这个意义上说,做什么事都比玩《Flappy Bird》更有趣。

Flappy Bird(from mashable.com)

Flappy Bird(from mashable.com)

收益

说到赢利方面,作为一款没有任何IAP的免费游戏,《Flappy Bird》唯一的收益渠道就是横幅广告。

对游戏或应用来说,这是最差的赢利方式了,因为横幅广告的单位收益最低。即使《Flappy Bird》的玩家数量庞大,收益总量也少得可怜。

但是,收益能少到什么程度呢?

跟业内人士打听打听,你就略知一二了。

假设

当然,就游戏的下载量、日活跃玩家数量、平均上线时间等方面而言,这款游戏的数据还是很好看的,所以我们还得做一番更深入的假设。

1、假设《Flappy Bird》的下载量是1亿。

2、下载了这款游戏的人都在玩它。

3、玩家平均每天上线5次。

4、每次上线平均看到3个广告。

以此为基础,这款游戏有1亿下载量,1亿玩家,每日5亿上线次数和每日15亿次广告。

但横幅广告是很难产生收益的。1000个横幅广告(千人印象成本)产生的收益大约是2美分。

在这个基础上,该游戏每天展示15亿次广告,每次广告印象收益为0.00002美元,每日总收益就是3万美元。

当然,对于一个越南游戏开发者,这个收益不算太差(游戏邦注:毕竟它有两款应用进入全球收益排行榜前列)。但撇开这点不说,考虑到《Flappy Bird》在全世界的人气,与靠IAP挣钱、进入收益排行榜的其他游戏相比,它的收益确实太少了。

推论

我们把这个推测的结论放在现实背景下看看。

1亿下载量可能太高了,且并非所有下载游戏的人都会在下载后的当天就玩它。

修改一下我们在上文中的假设数据,最终结果也大大变化了。

5千万下载量,每天上线3次,每次出现2个横幅广告,这样每天产生的收益就是6000美元。

显然,这是以下载了该游戏的5千万玩家都在当天玩它为前提的。到第二天,假设有30%的玩家卸载了该游戏。这样,这款游戏在第一天产生的收益是6000美元,而第二天是4000美元,第三天是2667美元,第四天就只有1778美元了。

即使假设所有下载了该游戏的玩家确实每天坚持上线,《Flappy Bird》要达到可观的100万美元收益,也必须保持这些数字不少于1个月(在最好的情况下)或者167天(在最坏的情况下)。

据此,这款游戏必须尽可能不间断地更新插播广告和视频广告,并且利用它在排行榜上有利位置尽快推出IAP。

毕竟,谁也不想花0.99美元给他们的游戏角色买一顶时髦的帽子吧?(本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译,拒绝任何不保留版权的转载,如需转载请联系:游戏邦

Opinion: It’s a global hit, but Flappy Bird is probably only making $6,000 a day

by Jon Jordan

If there’s something more enjoyable than playing Flappy Bird then it’s writing about Flappy Bird.

We’ve used it to discuss everything of geopolitics to the state of the entire industry, but there is another subject it can throw some light on.

But, before we start, we have to correct our initial sentence; “If there’s something more enjoyable than Flappy Bird…”

Of course, its success has been predicated on the fact that Flappy Bird is a deeply frustrating game – one in which players (like me) immediately uninstall it, or perversely use that frustration to try to power their high score into double figures.

From that point of view, everything is more enjoyable than Flappy Bird.

Deeper into the wallet

So much for the game’s psychology. Show me the money?

As a free game without any in-app purchases, Flappy Bird’s only monetisation stream is through the banner ads served through Google Ads – as shown at the bottom of the screen.

These are the worst ways to monetise an app or game, as banner ads are the lowest performing ad unit you can integrate. Even with the giant audience that Flappy Bird has, the amount of cash generated is relatively tiny.

But how tiny?

Talking to industry insiders you start to get an idea.

Back of a cigarette packet

Of course, there are no hard figures in terms of the game’s downloads, daily active users, average game sessions etc so we’ll have to use some back-of-the-envelope guestimates.

1. Let assume Flappy Bird has been downloaded 100 million times.

2. Everyone who downloaded it is playing it.

3. On average, a player plays five sessions per day.

4. And, again on average, three ads are served per session.

On that basis we have 100 million installs, 100 million players, 500 daily sessions and 1.5 billion ads per day.

But banner ads are pitiful at generating revenue. The revenue for showing 1,000 banner ads (its eCPM) is around 2 cents.

On that basis, Flappy Bird is showing 1.5 billion ads daily at $0.00002 per impression, which gives us a daily total of $30,000.

Certainly not bad for a single developer from Vietnam (who also has two globally top grossing apps). But removing that context and considering the global impact of Flappy Bird, it’s not a lot of money compared to the millions per day that top grossing games with IAPs are making.

Rock bottom

But, let’s now throw some reality onto this back-of-the-envelope calculation.

100 million downloads is likely too high, and not everyone who downloads the game plays it after day 1.

Tweaking our initial data points changes the end result significantly.

50 million downloads, with 3 sessions a day and 2 ads per session results in revenue of $6,000 per day.

Obviously, that’s on a day that all 50 million downloaders play the game. On day 2, say 30 percent have uninstalled the game after high scoring 3 points. On that basis, the game generates $6,000 on day 1 and just $4,000 on day 2, $2,667 on day 3, $1,778 on day 4 etc.

Even assuming downloaders do continue to play it daily, Flappy Bird would have to maintain these usage numbers for over a month (in the best scenario) and 167 days (in the lower case scenario) to generate the magical $1 million.

On that basis, the game needs to be updated with interstitial and video adverts as soon as possible, with in-app purchases arriving soon after to really take advantage of its chart position.

After all, who wouldn’t want to spend $0.99 to get a funky hat for their flappy bird?(source:pocketgamer)


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