作者：Keith Andrew

有时候我会希望自己是在为报纸或杂志工作。

关于网站的问题就在于它的记忆是永恒的。你说过的话将以某种形式永远留在网络上。

如此，当一些像我这样过分自信的编辑大胆地预测了今后12个月中可能发生的变化时，读者便能够轻松地在之后核对这些预测，如果没有一个预测是对的，他们便会大肆地嘲笑我们。

所以比起等你们来嘲笑我，我决定先回顾下自己对于2013年可能发生的变化的预测，凭借后见之明，通过预测去检查预测。

说句实话，我做得还不错：

声明1：

毋庸置疑地，我们将看到一些巨头们，包括平台，发行商和开发商们，遇到一些主要的麻烦并彻底崩溃。而比这个更重要的应该是人们所游戏的平台以及他们如何游戏。这问题都将成为2013年的遗产。

甚至，我还不得不承认这是一个公开的预测。因为每年都会出现这样的“伤亡”，就像我们便见证了Zynga和Glu Mobile遇到了一些麻烦，甚至还有一些公司彻底倒闭了，而这些都不是什么让人惊讶的事。

然而，这就是2013年手机领域残酷本性的主要证据—-很有可能2014年也是如此。Zynga使用现有的游戏去推动其全新输出内容的策略是非常赚钱的，但它这同时也是一枚定时炸弹。中途只要有1，2款游戏退出，整条发展链便会中断，从而摧毁了整个方法。

让人烦恼的是，Zynga也许是这种模式的典范，但它却不是唯一使用这一方法的开发商，即通过他们现有但却只有几个月货架寿命的游戏而推行新游戏。

就像Zynga所发现的，反复寻找“下一个大事物”需要承受着恒定的压力，这将导致开发商们做出一些糟糕的决策而买下一些未经证实的内容。

将Zynga与King和Supercell做比较—-这两个西方市场的主导势力都是基于一些经得起时间考验的游戏发展起来，并且这些游戏每周都能为它们创造巨大的利益。

交叉推广并没有什么错，但是你需要确保你所推广的游戏能够维持长久的成功。

声明2：

对于RIM，延迟的黑莓10很快便成为了他们的最后一战，尽管这并不是该公司所料想到的。

自从2008年App Store问世以来，RIM便已经不再参与争霸战了。它总是会在竞争对手之后添加一些功能，只希望维持生存地位而未想过占领市场。

blackberry10(from 36kr)

的确，整个应用市场理念已经不再适合这家来自加拿大的巨头公司。黑莓10尝试着扭转局面，并且有可能成为该公司所需要的“重置键”。

另一方面，它可能证明即使缺少足够的消费者关注和定制内容，该公司也并未失去希望。

的确，在2013年黑莓并未失去希望，去年，任何人在看到其背后团队都会注意到，该公司真的是非常坚定地努力着。

然而当我现在坐在电脑前敲打着键盘的时候，我们不得不承认该公司的未来还是悬而未决。

2013年的之后几个月，黑莓全面退出游戏市场，同时启动售卖计划并免除了其首席执行官Thorsten Heins的职位。

最后，黑莓并未能取代iOS和Android在应用市场的地位。尽管基于触屏的Z10和基于QUERTY的Q10不管在评论者还是公众面前都有不错的表现，但它们却都不具有任何独特性。

Z10上的应用和游戏远远少于市场上的其它智能手机，而Q10的企业市场占有率与黑莓的传统设备差不了多少。

总之，黑莓10尝试着成为万能设备，但其多样方法也意味着只会混淆信息：这就是典型的“杂而不精”的表现。

通过追随者苹果和谷歌的尾巴，黑莓不仅破坏了自己在企业市场的地位，同时还加速了自己在该领域的灭亡。但是它并未彻底消失在我们的面前，不过在2014年，我们可能不会看到该公司的回归了。

声明3：

Windows是否还活着？它是否能够扭转微软的局势？我们所知道的是，2013年我们开始了解到消费者是否想要玩游戏。

这是很难判断的。尽管有着一些显著的批评者，但是从各个权衡来看Windows 8还是取得了商业上的成功—-但是我们却不可避免一种看法，即对于许多人而言，该平台的Metro用户界面并非其卖点。

所以现在是平局？不完全是这样，因为在我关于2013年的预测的最大疏忽是，对于微软来说，Windows 8（游戏邦注：就此而言应该是Windows Phone和Xbox）所面临的是一场长久战。

所以尽管在2013年和2014年Windows 8比Mac更受欢迎，但是向平板电脑的成功过度以及该平台的能力都在说服人们Metro并非一个有价值的UI。

声明4：

Xbox将发展成为一大游戏平台而不是一个硬件，并伴随着能够在电视，智能手机和平板电脑出现的游戏。SmartGlass只是一次测试运行。

乍看之下，我们不得不承认离这一目标还有很大的距离，但话说回来，这也证明我的预测是富有远见的（甚至超越了2013年）。

当我写下声明时，微软公开了Xbox One，即关于官方的Xbox品牌平板电脑的谣言得到了证实。尽管这样的设备将出现在玩家面前，但微软果断的Xbox揭露也兑现了他们将把游戏瞄准特定用户的计划。

结果便是，让这些游戏扩展到不同的硬件形式上的计划并未出现于优先列表上。的确，在这个市场上索尼及其PlayStation 4还是保持着主导地位，即让用户在他们的PS Vitas上玩着PS4游戏。

然而，我仍然相信不管是Xbox One还是PlayStation 4都将是最后与实体硬件相维系的主机，并且这两个平台也将不再停留于人们花数百英镑购得的游戏盒上。

可能它们需要比我的预测更长的时间。

声明5：

但最重要的是，2013年苹果必须推出其面向电视的应用平台。不管它只是尝试着移植iOS游戏还是基于针对电视控制的工具发行全新游戏—-在经过所有的宣传后，苹果需要真正走上这条道路。

在我12个月前所做出的预测中，这是最重要的一点，但似乎偏离了事实。

苹果延迟了其基于应用装备的Apple TV也是做好了受到争论的准备，尽管从该公司在夏天为第三方控制器开启iOS时我们就预测到那一天不远了。然而当我们进入了全新的一年，苹果却还未做出任何公告。

苹果是否错失良机了？我想说是这样没错。PS4和Xbox One都在成功运行着，比发行前任何预测取得更快的销售速度，而关于Apple TV上的应用的假设标准也正在努力获得牵引力。

毋庸置疑的是，苹果在微主机市场上所作出的任何行动都会比之前获得来自媒体和零售商的更大关注度，但2013年的遗憾也证明了只是将手机游戏移植到Ouya是不够的。

按现状看来，微主机市场还未带来真正的影响。

（本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译，拒绝任何不保留版权的转载，如需转载请联系：游戏邦）

2013 In Review: How many of our 2013 predictions came true?

by Keith Andrew

It’s at times like this that I wish I worked for a newspaper or on a magazine.

The problem with the web is that its memory is eternal. Your words stay online in some form or other forever.

As such, when cocksure editors such as myself boldly predict what’s going to happen over the course of the next 12 months, it’s easy for readers to check back and ridicule us when none of those predictions play out.

So, rather than wait for you lot to take me down under your own steam, I decided to take a look back at what I projected would happen in 2013 and, with the benefit of hindsight, go through prediction by prediction.

And, dare I say it, I didn’t do all too badly:

Statement 1:

Undoubtedly, we’re going to see some major players – platforms, publishers, developers – run into major trouble and fall away. More important than all of this, however, is what platforms people play on, and how they play. These issues will prove to be 2013′s legacy.

Even I would have to admit that this was a fairly open projection. Every year plays host to casualties, so the fact we’ve seen major players such as Zynga and Glu Mobile run into trouble, while others have closed up shop entirely is hardly a major surprise.

It is, however, prime evidence of the cut-throat nature of mobile in 2013 – and, likely, 2014 too. Zynga’s strategy of using established titles to push its new output was highly lucrative, but it was also something of a ticking bomb. It only needed one or two titles to fall by the wayside for the chain to be interrupted and the whole approach undermined.

Worryingly, Zynga may have been something of a poster child for said model but it is by no means the only developer operating this way, pushing new games via existing games that themselves have a shelf life of only a few months.

As Zynga discovered, there was a constant pressure to find the ‘next big thing’ over and over, which resulted in the now notoriously bad decision to buyout the unproven and now shuttered OMGPOP.

Compare Zynga to King and Supercell – the two dominant forces in the west, each built upon the back of a small selection of games that are standing the test of time, still bringing in revenue aplenty on a weekly basis.

There’s nothing wrong with cross-promotion, but just make sure the games you’re pushing out aren’t fly-by-night successes.

Statement 2:

For RIM, the delayed BlackBerry 10 has quickly become something of a last stand, even if that’s not how the company itself would pitch it.

Until now, RIM has been playing catch up ever since the App Store launch in 2008. Always adding features after its rivals, and never leading the market.

Indeed, the whole concept of app marketplaces, open email and everything else Apple and co. brought to the table has been an uncomfortable fit for the Canadian giant. BlackBerry 10 is an attempt to jump back ahead, and could be the reset button the company needs.

Or, on the other hand, it could prove to be neither one thing nor the other – neither consumer focused, nor tailored enough for enterprise. What it isn’t, however, is without hope.

Indeed, BlackBerry wasn’t without hope in 2013, and anyone who encountered the team behind the platform’s drive on games at an event last year will know how committed the company was to making its mark.

As I sit here typing, however, the company’s future is very much up in the air.

The latter months of 2013 saw BlackBerry initiate a full-scale withdrawal from the games markets whilst also popping itself up for sale and ridding itself of CEO Thorsten Heins.

In the end, BlackBerry’s attempt to take on iOS and Android in the apps market just didn’t sit well in the eyes of the consumer. While both the touchscreen-based Z10 and querty-focused Q10 performed well with critics, for the public, neither offered anything unique.

The Z10 came with less apps and games that any other smartphones on the market, while the Q10 offered the enterprise market little more than BlackBerry’s legacy devices.

In short, BlackBerry 10 tried to be everything to all men, but it’s diverse approach meant it ended up muddling its message: the very definition of a ‘Jack of all trades, master of none.’

By chasing the tails of Apple and Google, BlackBerry undermined its hand in the enterprise market and hastened its own demise in that arena too. It would be both unfair and inaccurate to suggest BlackBerry has disappeared off the face of the earth, but it seems unlikely 2014 will play host to any sort of meaningful comeback.

Statement 3:

Will Windows survive? Will it tip the balance in Microsoft’s favour? All we know is, 2013 will be the year when we find out whether consumers want to play ball.

This one is a little harder to qualify. Though it had notable detractors, Windows 8 is undoubtedly a commercial success by almost every measure – though it’s hard to escape the notion that, for a lot of people, the platform’s Metro user interface is anything but a selling point.

A score draw, then? Well, not really, because one of the biggest oversights I made in my 2013 predictions is that, for Microsoft, Windows 8 – and Windows Phone and Xbox, for that matter – is a long play.

So while Windows 8 was always going to comfortably prove more popular than Mac in 2013 and 2014 alike, a successful transition to tablets and the platform’s ability to convince people that Metro is a worthy UI are both anything but set in stone.

Statement 4:

Xbox will increasingly become a games platform rather than a piece of hardware, with the same games played across TV, smartphones and tablets. SmartGlass really is just a test run.

On first glance, you’d have to say I was way off the mark with this one as well, but then again, this may prove to be a case of me looking far beyond 2013.

When said statement was written, Microsoft was yet to lift the lid on the Xbox One and rumours of an official Xbox-branded tablet were rife. Such a device may still see the light of day, but Microsoft’s decidedly dodgy Xbox reveal has put pay to its plans to tie games to specific users.

As a result, it would appear letting those games spread across different forms of hardware has fallen down the priority list. Indeed, it’s an area whereit could be argued Sony has taken the lead with PlayStation 4, allowing users to play PS4 games on their PS Vitas.

Nevertheless, I still believe that both Xbox One and PlayStation 4 will be the last consoles tied to a physical piece of hardware, and that both platforms will evolve beyond the boxes people are currently paying out several hundreds of pounds for.

It just might take a little longer than I – or anyone, for that matter – expected.

Statement 5:

But, more than anything, this is the year when Apple’s app platform for TVs has to launch. Whether it simply attempts to port over iOS releases or launches fresh with a toolset specifically for television controls is a secondary issue right now – after all the hype, this is a race Apple needs to be in.

This is where I was furthest from the truth, despite the fact that, of all the predictions I made 12 months ago, this was also the most crucial.

Just why Apple keeps delaying its inevitable app-equipped Apple TV is up for debate, though it appeared to be just around the corner when the company officially opened up iOS to third-party controllers in the summer. And yet, as we slip into 2014, there’s no sign of any such announcement.

Has Apple missed the bus? I’d say yes. PS4 and Xbox One are both flying, selling at a faster rate than even the most optimistic analysts predicted in the months before their respective launches, and the supposed benchmarks for apps on Apple TV – Ouya, GameStick – are struggling to gain traction.

Undoubtedly, any move by Apple on the microconsole market would gain far more attention from press and retail alike than any that have gone before, but 2013′s legacy may prove to be that simply porting mobile games over to Ouya and co. isn’t enough.

As things stand, the microconsole market just isn’t making an impact.(source:pocketgamer)