作者：Joe Jasko

电子游戏的另一个成功年份即将接近尾声，我们也是时候开始展望2014年以及未来可能带来的所有潜能。贯穿2013年的确发生了许多大事件，所以像微交易和跨平台体验等主要游戏元素在今后会朝着怎样的方向发展？尽管Gamezebo也在预测着2014年的变化，我们认为应该先找到一位这一领域的专家并听取他的预测，让作为玩家的我们能够清楚2014年的商店里会出现怎样的新内容。为了达到这一目的，我最近与Kenny Rosenblatt（游戏邦注：大获成功的游戏开发工作室Arkadium的首席执行官）展开了交谈，并听取了他对于明年游戏领域相关发展的看法。

一开始，Rosenblatt预测游戏产业中的兼并与收购现象仍会继续存在，不过不会像之前所看到的那么疯狂（即大量Facebook游戏被除去的时候）。他同样也认为Facebook游戏在2014年将继续徘徊着，尽管开发者将不会再获取巨大的成功—-除非他们选择面向手机执行跨平台策略。但不管是Facebook还是手机，Rosenblatt也预测到休闲游戏将开始与如今的大型主机游戏（如《刺客信条》或《使命召唤》等）一样展开强大的市场营销活动，即在电视和平台广告上投入更多。

Kenny Rosenblatt（from gamezebo）

根据Rosenblatt，在2014年苹果的“最高排行榜”可能会发生改变，特别是伴随着“最畅销排行榜”的巨大改变或被删除。Rosenblatt认为这是因为，当免费游戏模式被产业取缔前，付费游戏将不再出现于这一列表上。此外，手机游戏业务也会出现游戏变革，Rosenblatt认为像苹果或谷歌这类型巨头之一将减少从游戏上征收的30%费用。

继续这几年在游戏产业中出现的最热门且最受争议的话题，Rosenblatt还分享了对于未来微交易的预测。Rosenblatt认为集体用户将厌倦微交易或应用内部购买的出现，如此游戏将回到更直接的付费体验。说实话，他认为用户之所以厌倦了电子游戏中的购买时间不只因为它长期消耗着他们钱包里的钱，同时也因为这种行为真的很无聊。而产业的这种改变也很大程度地打击了付费游戏开发者，即当游戏玩法的乐趣元素不能有效第转变成盈利元素时。

这对于作为游戏玩家的我们来说是需要认真考虑的一大要点，我完全相信Rosenblatt的预测会变成现实。在过去一两年时间里我阅读了许多游戏评论（甚至自己也编写了不少这类评论），并发现因为微交易和固定能量仪表的迷惑性的存在，游戏体验彻底生锈了。但Rosenblatt也告诉我游戏开发者仍会继续添加微交易到自己的游戏中，直到大量用户反击真正出现。他表示，开发者“将经过一番艰难才能够有所领悟。”

energy meters（from gamezebo）

在2014年微交易和能量仪表的命运会是怎样的？

Rosenblatt继续说着，他认为eSports在2014年将迎来巨大的发展，即伴随着比赛的普及以及一些主要授权游戏的进入。说道游戏产业的大繁荣，Rosenblatt预测手机游戏和平板电脑游戏生态系统将在2014年继续爆发。我们会开始看到更多带有主机质量的游戏出现于这些设备上，而与此同时一些家庭游戏主机也仍会作为游戏消费者的主要设备。Rosenblatt认为到2016年，手机市场将超越主机业务：虽然这是件让人震惊的事，但是我们能够预测到这种情况的出现。

而现在真正有趣的是：Rosenblatt预测了微软下一代家庭游戏主机Xbox One的发行，玩家将能首次拥有真正的跨平台体验。也就是说，在结束Windows PC上的游戏回合前，他们既可以在Xbox One上玩游戏，也可以在自己的Windows手机或平板电脑上游戏：Rosenblatt将其定义为“完全的跨平台”。考虑到2013年跨平台机制成为了游戏世界一大热门商品，我也同意我们将找到各种方式去发展游戏。

console-quality mobile games（from gamezebo）

2014年是否会出现更多拥有主机质量般的手机游戏？

最后我问了Rosenblatt对于“同伴应用”变成成熟的主机授权游戏的新兴趋势的看法（我们在像《瑞奇与叮当：连接之前》和下周即将问世的《刺客信条：海盗》等手机游戏上看到越来越多的这种元素的出现）。尽管这对于硬核主机游戏玩家来说很酷，但是Rosenblatt却认为这些“同伴应用”并不是真正的同伴游戏，更像是带着零收入目标的事后营销手段。随着硬核游戏团队在牢记着真正主机游戏的同时开发出越来越越多同伴应用，我们是否能在2014年看到这种情况发生变化？

最后，只有时间能够向我们证实2014年到底会带给电子游戏世界怎样的改变，但我愿意相信Rosenblatt的预测会变成现实。你是否会加入反对微交易的社区？你是否会让完全跨平台游戏玩法的前景改变你玩喜欢游戏的方式？让我们认真去思考这些问题。

（本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译，拒绝任何不保留版权的转载，如需转载请联系：游戏邦）

Arkadium CEO’s 2014 predictions for the game industry

By Joe Jasko

Now that another successful year in the video game world has nearly come to a close, it’s time we start looking ahead to 2014 and all of the potential the future can bring. So many big things have already happened in gaming throughout the course of 2013, so what could possibly be next for gaming staples like microtransactions and cross-platform experiences? While Gamezebo’s predictions for 2014 are already on the way, we thought we’d get a real expert in the field to weigh in with some of his own predictions before then, and to let us gamers know just what might be in store for 2014. To that end, I recently had a chance to speak with Kenny Rosenblatt, the CEO of hugely successful game development studio Arkadium, and to find out just how he thinks the next year of gaming is going to pan out.

For starters, Rosenblatt predicts that there will continue to be consolidations throughout the gaming industry in the forms of mergers and acquisitions, although nothing too crazy like we saw in the days back when Facebook gaming was really taking off. And while we’re on that subject, he also feels that Facebook gaming will continue to stick around in 2014, although developers won’t have big success unless they go cross-platform with a mobile release. But regardless of Facebook or mobile, Rosenblatt still predicts that casual games in general will begin to have similar marketing campaigns as some of today’s biggest console game franchises like Assassin’s Creed or Call of Duty, with big investments in both TV and print ads.

According to Rosenblatt, a revamp of the Apple “Top Charts” is likely in order for 2014, specifically with the “Top Grossing Chart” either being heavily changed or removed altogether. The reason for this, Rosenblatt asserts, is that paid games are no longer on this list as they were in the days before the free-to-play model became cemented in the industry. And furthermore, in what could likely be a game-changing move in the mobile games business, Rosenblatt also thinks that one of the big players like Apple or Google will reduce the 30% fee or tax from game purchases on their respective platforms.

Moving on to one of the most heated and controversial topics to emerge in the gaming industry in recent years, Rosenblatt also shared his predictions on the future of the microtransaction. Specifically, Rosenblatt feels that collective users will begin to revolt against the advent of microtransactions or in-app purchases as they are used in video games today, to the point where games will start reverting back to more linear and premium experiences. Frankly, he feels that users are getting sick of essentially purchasing time in their video games – not only does it hurt their wallets in the long run, but it’s just downright boring. Conversely, this sway of the industry is also incredibly frustrating for premium game developers as well, whenever fun elements of gameplay are unable to effectively translate into monetization.

This is an especially important point for us gamers to consider, and I’ve got my fingers and toes crossed that Rosenblatt’s prediction comes true on this one. I’ve read dozens of game reviews in the last year or two (and even written a number of them myself) where the overall experience of the game is completely tarnished due to the intrusive presence, or otherwise deceptive and overt nature of microtransactions and fixed energy meters. However, Rosenblatt also tells me that game developers will still continue to add microtransactions into their games until this big user retaliation happens. As he puts it, the developers are “going to have to learn the hard way.”

How will microtransactions and energy meters fare in 2014?

Rosenblatt then went on to express his feelings that eSports will experience a giant boom in 2014, by means of increased tournaments and major franchises entering into the fold, in a play to adhere to the high desirability of advertisers in this growing market. And speaking of big booms in the gaming industry, it should come as no surprise that Rosenblatt predicts the mobile and tablet gaming ecosystem will continue to explode in 2014. We will begin to see more and more console-quality games appearing on these devices as we already have in 2013, and while home gaming consoles will still be the primary mechanism for most gaming customers next year, Rosenblatt predicts the mobile market will become bigger than the console business by 2016: a shocking thing to think about, but something I could easily see happening.

But now here’s a really interesting one: Rosenblatt predicts that with the release of Microsoft’s next-gen home gaming console, the Xbox One, gamers will be able to have the true cross-platform experience for the very first time. Namely, they will go from playing a game on their Xbox One, to picking up the action on their Windows phone or tablet, before ending their game session for the night on their Windows PC: something which Rosenblatt defines as “complete cross-platform.” And with the way that cross-platform releases have already become something of a hot commodity in the gaming world in 2013, I also agree that we’ll only see more ways to let us game wherever we are and wherever we go.

Are more console-quality mobile games on the ticket for 2014?

We had a few extra minutes at the end of our talk, and so I took that opportunity to ask Rosenblatt about his feelings on the emerging trend of “companion apps” to full-fledged console franchise games, which we’ve seen more and more of in mobile releases like Ratchet and Clank: Before the Nexus and even next week’s upcoming Assassin’s Creed Pirates. While certainly a cool thing to have for core console gamers, Rosenblatt feels that these “companion apps” are not true companion games yet, and more like a marketing afterthought with a zero revenue target behind them. Will we start to see this change though in 2014, as more companion apps are developed by the core teams with an actual console game integration in mind?

In the end, only time will tell what 2014 will truly bring to the world of video games, but I’d like to think that Rosenblatt’s predictions could be right on the money. Will you be partaking in the community revolt against microtransactions? Will you be letting the prospect of complete cross-platform gameplay change the way you play your favorite games? Be sure to chime in with your thoughts down in the replies, and let us know what you think about Rosenblatt’s predictions for gaming in 2014!(source:gamezebo)