作者：Eric Seufert

这是本系列文章的最后一篇，提到日本当然就无法绕过GungHo Entertainment这一热词，日本电信巨头软银已斥资2.65亿美元收购这家东京开发商58.5%的股份。GungHo能够获得如此成就，很大程度上与其热门游戏《Puzzle & Dragons》所创造的巨额收益有关，据称该游戏在今年1月就创收8600万美元。（请点击此处阅读本系列之韩国篇、中国篇）

不提《Puzzle & Dragons》，日本手机游戏市场在世界上也颇为活跃，2012年则见证了GREE和DeNA等日本游戏巨头在西方市场颇为复杂的变化。GREE不得不为之前在美国过度扩张的行为而紧急刹车，在去年12月份裁减大量员工，并关闭了OpenFeint（该公司于2011年斥资1亿多美元收购的美国手机游戏平台）。DeNA在2012年表现略好，第三季度收益同比上年增长52%，推出了《Rage of Bahamut》和《Marvel:War of Heroes》等多款在海外也颇受欢迎的热门游戏，其手机游戏平台Mobage的虚拟货币Moba-coin销量也甚为可观。

tokyo-tower-night-roppongi-hills(from ufert.se)

但与中国和韩国手机游戏市场不一样，我依靠自己的调查很难找到与该市场相关的英文资料，尤其是与投资收购以及2013年预期相关的信息。我找到的相关英文资料基本上来自Dr.Serkan Toto一人，他是日本手机游戏市场方面的专家。他的博客包含大量与日本游戏市场相关的分析，其中内容值得所有对该市场感兴趣的人一读。

我决定采访Dr.Serkan Toto，让他亲自谈谈日本手机游戏市场的情况。

针对软银收购GungHo公司58.5%的股份一事——你是否认为这将成为未来长存的一大趋势？

Serkan Toto（以下简称ST）：我认为我们还是会看到类似规模的收购交易，但日本私人募股手机游戏公司一般的出路就是继续发展到IPO。上市手机游戏公司的市值目前仅介于1500万-2000万美元，这意味着日本股市能够“吸收”不同规模的游戏公司。

Nomura在三月份以4.37亿美元收购了索尼在DeNA的股份，你是否认为Nomura有打算长期握紧其所有权？

ST：这很难说，但我的感觉是Nomura对DeNA有长期的兴趣。

你最近发布了一些与日本玩家有关的用户群体和行为数据。日本玩家主力军似乎与欧洲和北美游戏用户主体颇为相似（家庭主妇、企业白领唱主角），唯一明显的不同之处在于年龄，仅有18%日本玩家年龄未满20岁。

你认为日本玩家盈利性如此之高的原因是什么？

ST：日本玩家盈利性更高的一个主要原因在于，他们更年长，拥有更多可支配的收入。DeNA和GREE在过去几年中成功地将其主要用户基础从青少年转向30-40岁群体。

此外，这和内容供应商的表现也有关系，他们使用70和80年代大家熟知的IP（游戏邦注：包括动画、漫画领域）来制作内容。例如日本上市游戏公司Crooz就曾公开称其主要手机游戏玩家是30岁以上的男性用户，因为这些用户时间有限，但却有更多钱购买虚拟道具。

你提到DeNA和GREE在美国的平台业务失败，将把重心转向日本的内容开发和发行工作。你是否认为这表明美国这个更广大的市场并不适合采用平台嵌套平台的运营方式？

ST：我认为平台嵌套平台的方法确有瑕疵，因为它难以正确匹配开发者和平台供应商的利益。

这两家公司还存在另一个问题，它们身兼游戏开发商和平台供应商两个角色。换句话说，它们还会与开发者竞争。它们可以比你更早发现哪些内容可行，哪些不行。因为规则是它们制定的，由它们来决定在平台内部推广游戏或实施技术规范。如果你只是小型开发商，他们甚至还可以“买断”你——在日本多数合作是独家协议，这意味着你无法再向其他平台发布游戏。

人们经常将韩国Kakao Talk和日本LINE作为成功案例，并指出WhatsApp也能在美国复制同样的做法。但首先，韩国并没有GREE或Mobage这类拥有成百上千万用户的游戏专属平台。其次，这些平台目前的游戏数量也极其有限。例如LINE目前仅向其1.1亿用户推出20款游戏，所以即便是其中表现较差的游戏也能够“自动”获得可观的下载量。

这并不能解决曝光度的问题，只有那些Kakao Talk或LINE当前的少数合作伙伴才能享受到其中好处。并且更多游戏涌向这些平台时，曝光度就会成为一大问题——这正是GREE和Mobage在日本的第三方开发商所遇到的情况（这两个平台刚起步时的市场竞争也是零，但现在每个平台都有超过1500款的游戏）。

是否认为日本和整个亚洲的即时通信服务所获得的成功也能复制到美国？

ST：对，我认为这类服务会继续向包括美国在内的其他地区发展。我无法想像美国20出头的小伙子会在LINE或Kakao Talk这种平台上同他人交换可爱的棒棒糖和图标，但看看WhatsApp在美国和欧洲的成功势头你就会知道：这类服务的核心价值是一样的。

《Puzzle & Dragons》在日本表现异常出色，但最近才在美国跻身游戏收益榜单前50名。而《Rage of Bahamut》上周还稳居美国游戏收益榜单前20名，最近才跌至20名之外。日本游戏在美国市场获得成功的必备要素是什么？它们需要什么改进？

ST：在我看来，最关键的因素是设计。《Puzzle & Dragons》的执行效果极好，使用了一系列明智的盈利设计，也是一款比《Rage of Bahamut》更优秀的游戏。但《Puzzle & Dragons》的风格太可爱了，看起来过于“日本化”，所以不容易在美国找到广泛用户群体。

我希望有人证明我的看法是错误的，但看看那些在美国表现良好的游戏，例如《Legend Of The Cryptids》、《Dark Summoner》、《Lord Of The Dragons》、《Rage Of Bahamut》、《Marvel：War Of Heroes》、《Reign Of Dragons》，它们都有一个共同点，就是看起来不那么“日本”。DeNA所推出的《Marvel：War Of Heroes》（开发商是Cygames）则全盘使用了“超级美国化”的IP。

这些游戏一开始就是针对全球市场而设计，因此与《Puzzle & Dragons》的风格截然不同。

此外，我还认为《Rage Of Bahamut》之所以能够大获成功，与DeNA投入大笔资金推广游戏不无关系。我不认为《Puzzle & Dragons》投入的营销预算能够与之相提并论。

在被软银收购大部分股份之前，GungHo的市值是2012年收益的50倍，在被收购之前其股价在12个月内增长23倍。这家公司并非新兴企业，早在1998年就成立了。日本的投资及并购市场对热作究竟有多趋之若骛？

ST：它的情况就和整个手机游戏市场一样：一款游戏就可以决定整家公司的成败，小型公司尤其如此。几乎没人料到GungHo这种手机游戏领域的新手，也能够推出这样的热作。

DeNA和GREE还拥有能够令成百上千万日本用户涌向其平台（之后才向第三方开发商开放自己的平台）的早期热作，例如Mobage平台模仿《Mafia Wars》的《Kaito Royal》、GREE平台的社交捕鱼游戏《Fishing Star》。

所以这种发展模式并不鲜见，并且任何时候都可能重现。

摩根斯坦利2012年早期对日本社交游戏市场规模的预测较为准确——预测该市场规模为36.5亿美元，实际上的这一数据是41.6亿美元。日本市场是否已进入能够提前一年预测出结果的成熟期？

ST：没错，我是这么认为的。日本是一个特殊案例，其手机游戏市场早在2000年就充满活力，当时的功能性手机也已经出现了社交游戏。换句话说，我们可以依据更多历史数据和经验来预测这个市场。

不要忘了，日本是一个相对容易确定（供求情况）的封闭社交游戏市场。

日本游戏的每月ARPPU非常之高——将近50美元。你认为在西方市场收益最高的游戏，例如《Candy Crush Saga》、《Clash of Clans》和《Modern War》如果妥当进行本土化也能够实现这种程度的ARPPU吗？就目前来看，《Candy Crush Saga》在日本游戏收益榜单排在第64名，《Clash of Clans》仅排在103名，而《Modern War》却是榜上无名。

ST：如果你看看主机游戏领域当前和过去的形势，就会清楚，日本用户更喜欢玩由本土公司制作的游戏。

这里并不存在所谓的“地域歧视”问题，所以我认为海外手机游戏在理论上也有可能实现同等水平的ARPPU。

在你所提到的这三款游戏中，我最不看好《Modern War》。采用这类美术风格的游戏和玩法无法让日本玩家产生共鸣，至少是无法吸引主流日本玩家。我不认为这类游戏在日本的PC、移动或主机平台上能够大获成功。

《Candy Crush》最近获得了苹果日本App store的推荐，但我认为这款游戏并不能算是真的“可爱”或特别令人激动。GREE、Mobage、iOS和Android平台有无数类似外观和风格的益智游戏，而那些采用热门iP的游戏，就会拥有额外优势。

《Clash Of Clans》本可在日本更为成功，但却无法推出可行的日语版。

如果你看看日本收益榜单，就会发现在iOS和Android前50名热门榜单中，几乎所有游戏都来自日本（或者韩国），极少数是海外作品。

日本移动生态圈有55%属于Android，iOS仅占比39%，其余则被黑莓、Windows Phone和其他平台所分割。你是否认为日本是一个奉行Android优先的市场？

ST：从数据来看确实如此，但最近报告，例如App Annie就指出，iOS在日本市场中的影响力也不容小觑。我认为iPhone在日本的定位仍然是一种体现移动生活方式的产品，iOS用户为内容支付的费用仍然多于Android用户。

另外也不要忘了NTT Docomo这家日本最大的移动运营商（用户达6000万）并不供应iPhone——这对Android设备来说是一个优势，但这一形势变化之后，整个市场的游戏规则也会发生变化。

针对那想打算进军日本市场的手机游戏开发者，你有什么好建议？

ST：无论你做的是什么，都要考虑到日本是一个截然不同的市场。不要将你在自己本国和其他市场的经验照搬到日本，例如数据指标，在日本就是一个致命错误做法。

我认为，除了文本翻译（必选项），本土化服务（可选项），适当的市场营销（在日本必修功课）、客服支持（只能用日语）等其他要素之外，开发者要先自问游戏的美术风格的总体“感觉”是否贴近日本市场的需求。

我曾经同一些为将自己的成功游戏引进日本市场而投入大笔营销资金的西方手机游戏开发者交流过，发现他们在此基本上一无所获。Zynga收购了一家成功的日本游戏公司，花了成百上千万美元打算在日本站稳脚跟，最后也不得不在两年半之后宣布放弃。

请记住，还没有哪一家海外手机/社交游戏公司能够在日本真正获得成功。所以我强烈建议开发者如果准备不充分，就不要冒然进军日本市场。（本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译，拒绝任何不保留版权的转载，如需转载请联系：游戏邦）

An overview of mobile gaming in Asia, Part 3: Japan, with Dr. Serkan Toto

Eric Seufert

The last country covered in the three-part overview of mobile gaming in Asia is Japan, which is fitting given the recent buzz around GungHo Entertainment, the Tokyo-based developer behind Puzzle & Dragons: last week it was reported that Japanese telecommunications firm SoftBank purchased a 58.5% stake in GungHo for $265 million. GungHo’s nearly half a billion dollar valuation was largely the result of the massive revenues generated by its hit game Puzzle & Dragons, which is estimated to have delivered up to $86 million for the developer in January alone.

Independent of Puzzle & Dragons, the Japanese mobile gaming market has traditionally been one of the most active in the world, and 2012 saw a dizzying barrage of activity in Western markets from Japanese gaming powerhouses such as GREE and DeNA. GREE in 2012 was forced to confront its previous strategic overzealousness in the US, laying off a large number of staff last December and closing OpenFeint, the company it purchased for more than $100 million in 2011. DeNA fared better in 2012, with 3rd-quarter revenues up 52% from a year earlier as a result of several hit games, such as Rage of Bahamut and Marvel: War of Heroes, performing well outside of Japan, along with consumption of its virtual currency, Moba-coins.

But unlike with the Chinese and South Korean mobile gaming markets, I was met with a dearth of English-language information about the Japanese market in my search, especially M&A activity and projections for 2013. And where I did find English-language information, the source was invariably one man: Dr. Serkan Toto, the universally-recognized pre-eminent expert on mobile gaming in Japan. Dr. Toto’s blog contains a wealth of analysis about the Japanese gaming market and is a must-read for anyone interested in the region.

Rather than offer a meager and surely unsatisfactory summary of this fascinating if not cryptic market, then, I decided to query the foremost analyst on the region. What follows is an interview I conducted with Dr. Serkan Toto about mobile gaming in Japan.

Speaking first to SoftBank’s recent purchase of 58.5% of GungHo, the developer behind Puzzle & Dragons, for US $265 million — do you consider this a trend that will likely persist into the future?

Serkan Toto: I believe that we will see occasional acquisitions of similar scale, but the usual exit for private mobile gaming companies in Japan will continue to be going IPO. The market caps of listed mobile gaming companies currently range from just US$15-20 million up to hundreds of millions of US dollars, meaning stock markets in Japan can “absorb” gaming companies of different sizes at any given time.

In March, Nomura purchased Sony’s stake in DeNA for US $437 million. Do you think Nomura plans to hold onto this ownership stake for the medium to long term?

ST: That is very hard to say, but my feeling is that Nomura is in DeNA for the long term.

You recently published some very interesting demographic and behavioral data points relating to Japanese gamers. Japanese players seem to match the profiles of players in Europe and North America in terms of occupation (houswives, office workers), the only significant difference being age, with only 18% of Japanese players being younger than 20. To what do you attribute the higher monetization of Japanese players, then?

ST: It is exactly that: one major factor for the higher monetization rate is that players in Japan are older and simply have more disposable income that can be spent on games. Both DeNA and GREE did a great job in the last few years in shifting their user base from teens to 30-40 year olds.

Content providers are reacting, too, i.e. by using IP (anime, manga, etc.) from the 1970s and 1980s. Crooz (a publicly traded company), for example, openly says that their portfolio mainly consists of mobile games targeting men in their 30s and older – because these users have limited time but more money to spend on virtual items.

You state that DeNA and GREE’s platform businesses outside of the US failed and that they’ll be moving into content creation and publishing roles in Japan. Do you think this speaks to a broader market mismatch of platform-within-a-platform in the US?

ST: I think that the platform-within-a-platform paradigm is flawed, as it makes it difficult to align the interests of developers and platform providers.

In the case of these two companies, you also have the problem – as a developer – that they double as platform and game providers. In other words, they will compete with you. They see what works and what doesn’t early – on a higher level and maybe earlier than you. They set the rules, i.e. with regards to promoting games inside their platforms or imposing technical guidelines. If you’re small, they can even “own” you: most agreements (in Japan) are exclusive, meaning games can’t be ported to other platforms.

People often cite the success of KakaoTalk in Korea or LINE in Japan as an exception and suggest WhatsApp could do the same in the US. But first, Korea doesn’t have a GREE or Mobage, destinations dedicated solely to gaming with millions of users. And second, the number of titles is extremely limited so far. LINE, for example, offers 20 games to its 110+ million users at the moment – so even the weak titles get tons and tons of downloads “automatically”.

This doesn’t solve the discovery problem, except for the selected few companies that KakaoTalk or LINE currently accept as partners. And once more games reach these platforms, getting discovered will become a problem: this is exactly what happened to third-party developers on GREE and Mobage in Japan a few years ago (both platforms began at zero, too, and now have 1,500+ games each).

Do you think the success of OTT messaging services in Japan and Asia as a whole can be replicated in the US?

ST: Yes, I think that these services will continue to grow everywhere, including the US. I can’t really imagine a lot of 20-year old males in the US exchanging those cute stickers and icons in LINE or KakaoTalk, but just look at the success of WhatsApp in the US and Europe: the core value is the same in all of these services.

Puzzle & Dragons performed extremely well in Japan but only recently broke into the Top 50 grossing chart for games in the US (at the time of this writing, it is at #42). Rage of Bahamut, however, held a comfortable position in the Top 20 grossing chart for games in the US until last week, when it dropped below 20 (it is currently at #24). What does it take for a Japanese game to experience success in the US market? What changes need to be made?

ST: The key factor is design in my eyes. Puzzle & Dragons is executed extremely well, uses a range of clever monetization angles, and is simply a much better game than Rage Of Bahamut. But Puzzle & Dragons is too cute and looks “too Japanese” in my view to reach a broad audience in the US.

I hope I will be proven wrong, but look at the Japanese games that are doing well in the US. Legend Of The Cryptids, Dark Summoner, Lord Of The Dragons, Rage Of Bahamut, Marvel War Of Heroes, Reign Of Dragons, etc. have one thing in common: they don’t look “typically Japanese” at all. With Marvel, DeNA (or Cygames, to be more exact) goes all in and uses “super-American” IP.

These titles are specifically designed by their Japanese makers to be global-first games, a big difference to P&D.

Also, in the case of Rage Of Bahamut, I think it’s not a big secret that DeNA dumped a lot of money into promoting that particular game. I would doubt the marketing budget for Puzzle & Dragons came even remotely close, at least up to now.

Before the majority acquisition by SoftBank, GungHo was trading at 50x 2012 earnings, and its stock price increased by 23 times in the 12 months prior to the acquisition. The company is not new, though: it was founded in 1998. How hit-driven is the M&A market in Japan?

ST: It is as hit-driven as the entire mobile gaming market here: one game can mean success or failure for entire companies, especially smaller ones. Absolutely nobody anticipated that GungHo, which was a newcomer in mobile, could land such a hit.

Both DeNA and GREE also had early killer titles that were key driving millions of Japanese people to their platforms (which later opened to third-party developers): Mafia Wars clone Kaito Royal in the case of Mobage, and social fishing sim Fishing Star on GREE.

So this development is not really new and can happen anytime again.

Morgan Stanley’s projections for total Japanese social gaming market size for 2012, made early in that year, turned out largely correct: USD $3.65 billion estimated compared to USD $4.16 billion actual. Is the Japanese market at a mature enough stage where projections can capably be made one year forward?

ST: Yes, I think so. Japan is a special case, as a vibrant mobile gaming market has existed since the early 2000s and as social gaming already began on feature phones, in the pre-iPhone era. In other words, predictions can be made based on more historic data points and experience.

And not to forget, Japan is a relatively easy to define (in terms of supply and demand) and closed social gaming market.

Monthly ARPPU in Japan is very large — nearly $50. Do you think the highest grossing Western market games — Candy Crush Saga, Clash of Clans, Modern War — could achieve this kind of monthly ARPPU if they were localized capably? As of right now, Candy Crush Saga is #64 on the Top Grossing charts for games in Japan; Clash of Clans is #103 and Modern War is unranked.

ST: If you look at the situation (current and “historic”) in the console sector, it’s more than clear that – generally speaking – Japanese users tend to play games made by local companies.

Having said that, there is no “discrimination” at play here, so I think mobile games from outside Japan can theoretically achieve this kind of ARPPU as well.

Of the three, I would not bet any money on Modern War. Games with this art style and game play don’t resonate with Japanese players, at least not the mainstream. I can’t think of any such game on the PC, mobile or console that was a big success in Japan.

Candy Crush was recently featured by Apple Japan (after it was translated), but I think the title wouldn’t be considered really “cute” or particularly exciting here. There are tons of puzzle games on GREE, Mobage, iOS, and Android that have a similar look and feel: those using popular IP, for example, have an extra edge.

Clash Of Clans could have made it much, much bigger in Japan, but there is no way without making it available in Japanese.

If you look at the top grossing charts in Japan, you can see that almost all games in the top 50 on iOS and Android come from Japan (or Korea) – with very, very few exceptions.

The Japanese mobile ecosystem breaks down to about 55% Android, 39% iOS, and the rest split between BlackBerry, Windows Phone and others. Do you think Japan is an Android-first market?

ST: The numbers suggest so, but recent reports, for example from App Annie, indicate that iOS can’t be ignored in Japan. I would say that the iPhone is still positioned as the mobile lifestyle product in Japan and that iOS users still pay more for content than Android users.

Also don’t forget that NTT Docomo, Japan’s biggest mobile carrier with 60 million subscribers, doesn’t offer the iPhone – a big pro for Android currently but also testament for Apple’s power over here. Once this changes, the whole market for games will change as well.

What advice would you give to a mobile gaming developer contemplating an entry into the Japanese market?

ST: Whatever you do, you should consider Japan as a completely different market. Do not make the mistake of applying learnings in your home and other markets, i.e. metrics, to Japan: that is a recipe for disaster.

I think that asking yourself if the art style and general “feel” of a game fits is the initial big bullet point here, apart from factors like translation (a must in the case of Japan, even for simpler games), possibly localization (not necessary in all cases), proper marketing (an absolute must in Japan, as anywhere else), customer support (to be offered in Japanese only), and others.

I have spoken with Western mobile game makers that have dumped hundreds of thousands of US dollars in marketing to bring their successful titles to Japan – without any ROI to speak of. Zynga acquired a successful local company and spent millions of dollars while trying to gain a foothold in Japan – and gave up after 2.5 years.

Please keep in mind that today, there is not even a single foreign mobile/social gaming company that’s really successful in this country. So I would strongly advise to not try to sell to Japan unprepared, even though I understand the the big numbers you hear about sound very sexy to developers.（source：ufert）