作者：Eric Seufert

Flurry Analytics在2月份指出中国智能手机和平板电脑安装量超过了美国（2.46亿vs2.3亿）。中国取代美国在该市场地位之所以如此重要，是因为在中国市场的这2.5亿台移动设备中，有1.5亿台是2012年新增的设备。中国在移动设备市场上惊人的发展预示着该国手机游戏市场在2013年的巨大发展潜力，这一点也已经引起行业媒体的关注：《华尔街日报》曾报道2013年手机游戏收益增幅将达55%，并在2015年仍将超过50%。报道还指出中国智能手机覆盖率将在2013年突破50%大关，这意味着今年智能手机安装量将增长将近4.25亿次。(请点击此处查看本系列之韩国篇、日本篇）

这是一组惊人的数据，任何手机游戏开发商都不能不考虑在中国市场的发行战略。本文旨在从西方开发者角度，提供中国游戏市场概况。与韩国手机游戏市场分析不同，我们在此着重分析中国市场的现实竞争环境，以及打算在此发布手机游戏的开发商所面临的机遇和挑战。

Jin_Mao_Tower_Huangpu_River_Shanghai_China(from ufert.se)

极端分裂的市场

这就是中国手机游戏市场的残酷现状。出现于2012年第三季度的中国iOS和Android设备将近2亿台，其中Android占比70%，而iOS的总体市场份额则降至10%以下。尽管iPad Mini在中国销量远比其他市场更乐观，苹果也是中国平板电脑市场佼佼者，但Android总体市场份额在2013年进一步领先。《捕鱼达人》开发商CocoaChina据称该游戏每月收益超过600万美元，下载量突破1.2亿次，并指出Android在2013年中国手机游戏市场收益中占比达80%。

Android在中国智能手机市场占据主导地位，在该市场的分裂性甚于西方市场，因为中国充斥大量廉价、山寨Android设备，以及大量独立应用商店（超过500家）。这些应用商店在明年或许会因为运营商计费系统（用户通过其运营商服务购买IAP）的强大而整合起来，但如此之多的应用商店仍是意欲进军中国市场的游戏公司所面临的一大问题，并且这些公司还得在这样一种模糊的商业环境中彼此建立关系。

尽管运营商计费系统向外国开发者开放盈利服务，平板电脑在中国市场仍比其他地区更缺乏可行性——中国的山寨Android平板电脑通常没有SIM插槽，这意味着这些设备无法采用运营商计费系统。中国市场的动态创造了一系列开发指标——Android优先，智能手机优先，这一点与其他地区的情况相反（iOS优先，平板电脑优先）。

中国市场的内容也呈现分裂状态，不存在任何一种凌驾于其他游戏类型之上的题材。据友盟数据显示，中国玩家最常玩的是动作类游戏（占比22%），其次是休闲游戏（17%）和益智游戏（15%）。战略游戏（游戏邦注：该类型目前在西方游戏市场收益榜单最占优势）在所有新添加游戏中仅占比9%，这意味着中核游戏要进入中国市场可能将面临困难。

没有明确的内容之王

与移动设备领域一样，中国手机游戏运营商也呈现多元化格局，据调研公司Analysys数据显示，游戏巨头腾讯掌握了22%的中国市场份额。这种分层结构为开发者呈现了许多合作机遇，中国移动控制了17%的手机游戏市场份额，与全球600多家手机游戏开发商达成了合作。而第三大游戏运营商中国电信，市场份额则是8%。

有趣的是，腾讯似乎有意通过模仿韩国的市场形势而占据领先地位，并在其聊天应用微信（WeChat）中植入了一个游戏平台。微信目前有3亿用户，有望成为意欲找到Android市场突破口的海外开发者进入中国手机游戏市场的一大便捷渠道。

但微信的发展并非一帆风顺，由于微信蚕食了手机短信服务的收益，中国最大的几家电信公司正考虑向腾讯征收微信费用。

高速发展

无论中国游戏生态圈的市场形势如何复杂，其更重要的一面始终是设备激活量、游戏和收益方面的高速发展。Digi-Capital在其2012年全球投资和并购报告中预测，到2015年中国将在全球在线和手机游戏收益中占比32%，而iResearch Consulting Group也预计2015年中国整个手机游戏销售额将达22亿美元。这种收益增长并不仅仅得益于国内市场增长，还要归功于中国公司通过本土化和收购策略积极进军海外市场。

腾讯就已经大手笔进行海外收购，在2012年斥资3.3亿美元收购Epic Games公司40%股份，以2700万美元收购新加坡公司Level Up 49%的股份，在2011年更是以4亿美元将《英雄联盟》开发商Riot Games收入囊中。

海外公司请留心

对于海外公司来说，进入中国市场的确有不小的风险。相关业内人士指出，要在中国发布游戏必须要有当地的合作伙伴，以便灵活处理语言与文化上的本土化问题，以及同中国复杂的机构打交道，这是开发者在中国获得成功的必备要素。

希望进入中国市场但却遭遇失败的游戏公司比比皆是，Facebook、MySpace和Groupon就是这些无功而返的公司中的典型代表。中国市场虽然很有吸引力，但也令人胆怯，其分散的属性更增加了海外开发者所面临的风险和成本。但总体来看，在中国发布手机游戏的策略也很明显：

*专注于Android平台，兼容低端智能手机；

*动作和益智游戏最受欢迎，虽然目前MMO游戏最赚钱，但未来趋势可能转向休闲游戏；

*将大量业务开发资源用于与当地最大的应用商店运营商建立合作关系；

*与能够提供语言本土化服务，以及调整游戏令其吸引本土玩家的当地合作伙伴联手。

原文发表于2013年3月25日，所涉事件及数据以当时为准。（本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译，拒绝任何不保留版权的转载，如需转载请联系：游戏邦）

An overview of mobile gaming in Asia, Part 2: China

Eric Seufert

Last month, Flurry Analytics projected a larger total smartphone and tablet install base in China than in the US (246 million versus 230 million). This usurpation of the top position is significant because 150 million of those nearly 250 million devices – or 60% – were added in 2012. China’s breathtaking pace of mobile device acquisition portends massive potential in the country’s mobile gaming sector in 2013, which has already been noted by the industry press: the Wall Street Journal reported that mobile gaming revenue growth would reach 55% in 2013 and remain above 50% through 2015. In the meantime, it noted that smart phone penetration in China would break the 50% threshold in 2013 – meaning the smart phone install base will grow by approximately 425 million over the course of this year.

These are astonishing numbers, and certainly any mobile gaming developer would be remiss in not at least considering China geographically in its launch strategy. This post attempts to provide an overview of the Chinese gaming market from the perspective of Western developers interested in potentially gaining a presence there. In contrast to the overview of the South Korean market, which presented mostly a fact-based competitive landscape, this post will (hopefully) provide analysis about the challenges and opportunities for mobile game developers considering a launch in China.

Extreme Fragmentation

The Chinese mobile marketplace is extremely fragmented. Of the approximately 200 million iOS and Android devices present in China in the 3rd quarter of 2012, an overwhelming 70% were Android , with total iOS market share having fallen over the course of the year to below 10%. And while sales of the iPad mini were more robust in China than elsewhere, and Apple is market leader in tablet sales in China, Android’s overall market leadership looks to become further galvanized in 2013. CocoaChina, the developer behind the Fishing Joy series reportedly making more than $6 million per month through over 120 million aggregate downloads across the franchise, has indicated that Android could represent 80% of mobile gaming revenues in China in 2013.

But while Android as a platform is dominant in China, it is fragmented to an even greater degree than in the West as a result of the mass proliferation of cheap, counterfeit Android devices and a massive number of independent app stores (over 500). These app stores may consolidate over the course of the next year as carrier billing — whereby in-app purchases are charged to the user via their telecom utility – becomes more prominent, but the high number of app stores still presents a problem for gaming companies hoping to enter the market, who must build relationships with each one in a business environment that can appear opaque.

And as carrier billing opens an avenue to monetization to foreign developers, it renders tablets less viable than in other markets: counterfeit Android tablets in China generally don’t come equipped with a SIM port, meaning carrier billing is impossible through them.  This market dynamic in China creates a set of development parameters — Android first, smart phone first – at odds with what has emerged over the past year in other geographies: iOS first, tablet first.

The content landscape is also fragmented in China, with no clear preferred game genre lording over the rest. According to Umeng (slide 17), Action is the most played gaming category (in terms of recent additions to the app stores Umeng tracks) at 22%, equal with the “Other” category, followed by Casual at 17% and Puzzle at 15%. Strategy games – which currently lead the Top Grossing charts in Western markets – represent only 9% of new games added, which could spell trouble for the entry of mid-core games into the Chinese market.

No Clear King of Content

Like the device landscape, the stable of large, established mobile gaming operators in China is likewise pluralized, with the largest, Tencent, controlling only 22% of the market according to research firm Analysys. This stratification presents an attractive opportunity for partnerships, as evidenced through China Mobile, which controls approximately 17% of the Chinese mobile gaming market, having partnered with over 600 mobile gaming developers the world over. The third largest gaming operator, China Telecom, controls about 8% of the market.

Interestingly, Tencent may be attempting to pull ahead in terms of market share by emulating a market dynamic seen in South Korea and implementing a gaming platform into its OTT chat app, WeChat. WeChat, with its 300 million users, has the potential to serve as a convenient entry point into the Chinese mobile gaming market for foreign developers seeking exposure in the fragmented Android market space.

But WeChat’s growth has not been without protestations, as China’s largest telecommunications utilities have publicly considered charging Tencent for WeChat’s access to their networks as the free messaging app eats into SMS revenue.

Hyper Growth

Whatever the market dynamics of the Chinese gaming ecosystem, the broader story is hyper growth: in activated devices, in exposure to games, and in revenue. Digi-Capital, in its 2012 review of global gaming M&A, predicted that China could take up to 32% of worldwide online and mobile gaming revenues by 2015, and the iResearch Consulting Group estimates China’s total mobile gaming turnover to reach $2.2 billion by 2015. This surge in revenue is accounted for not only by domestic market growth but also by expansion of Chinese companies into foreign markets through localization and acquisitions.

Tencent has set the tone for such foreign acquisitions, having acquired a 40% stake in Epic Games for $330 million and a 49% stake in Singapore’s Level Up for $27 million in 2012 and Riot Games, the developer of League of Legends, for $400 million in 2011.

Caveat Emptor

Entry into the Chinese market does appear fraught with risk for foreign companies. Henry Fong, who writes frequently on the subject, posted a list of take-aways from a panel about launching games in China held last month at SXSW. Each point seemed to suggest that launching without a local partner — to assist in not only adeptly linguistically and culturally localizing the title but also with navigating China’s labyrinthine bureaucracy – is an essential component of success.

The list of companies attempting to enter the Chinese market and failing miserably is long, with Facebook, MySpace, and Groupon being among the most prominent companies to attempt the feat unsuccessfully. The Chinese market, while appealing, is intimidating, and its divergent and disconnected nature intensifies the risk foreign developers take – as well as the costs they must bear – in entering it. But at the highest level, the launch strategy is clear:

Focus on Android, accommodating for low-end smartphones;

Action and puzzle games are the most popular, and while MMOs monetize best, revenue may be shifting toward casual titles;

Dedicate substantial business development resources to establishing relationships with the largest of the myriad App Store operators;

Work closely with a local partner that can provide inroads not only with linguistic localization services but can also help recondition games to appeal to cultural sensibilities.（source：ufert）