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计算《植物大战僵尸2》的成功与盈利系数

发布时间:2013-08-22 15:56:42 Tags:,,,

作者:Jon Jordan

《植物大战僵尸2》将原先备受欢迎并且极为成功的付费游戏转变为免费模式,此举或许会让人觉得该游戏会引起争议。

但实际上,该游戏备受好评,并且在评价聚合网站Quality Index获得了8.5分。

EA在Gamescom 2013年大会上指出,这款游戏在两周内实现1600万次下载量,打破了EA手机游戏的发行纪录(游戏邦注:这款游戏目前仅支持iOS平台)。

载入游戏后,玩家可以选择连接到Facebook,但系统并不会强迫玩家做此选择。它使用了苹果Game Center服务。游戏启动时,还会检查新内容并尽量在后端进行下载。

当然,这款游戏也难免弹出推送通知,多数人都会拒绝这种信息。

pvsz2-crazydave-iap(from pocketgamer)

pvsz2-crazydave-iap(from pocketgamer)

新手教程

在呈现基本的新手教程方面,《植物大战僵尸2》尽管控制玩法,以便玩家在此仅接触游戏的关键元素。

这一点体现在游戏的第一个关卡,它以新手教程的方式引进新植物、道具和玩法元素,尽管玩家此时已经进入了主游戏关卡。

其玩法复杂度的叠加也同此法,这款游戏在引进盈利元素方法极具智慧。

玩家在直接进入游戏商店之前大概需要30分钟。在此之前,游戏内置角色Crazy Dave会给玩家一些软货币用来购买限时易消耗道具,以便增强自己的攻击型植物。

除此之外,《植物大战僵尸2》玩法支持玩家在短时间内捏夹或轻弹僵尸。在游戏早期,玩家可以赢得足够的软货币,无需掏钱购买硬货币。

内置商店

在游戏内置商店结构方面,EA/PopCap采用了8种交易价值(多数游戏公司使用6种),最小单笔交易额为2.99美元,最大为99.99美元。

其贴现率(每件商品最小与最大交易额相比的单价范围)为2.7。

pvsz2-coins(from pocketgamer)

pvsz2-coins(from pocketgamer)

而多数游戏的这一比率为1.3-1.7,不过之前的EA游戏《The Simposons:Tapped Out》的这一比例为4,可见该公司的政策是奖励那些花了更多现金的玩家,让他们获得更多虚拟货币。

除了虚拟货币(可用于在游戏中购买易消耗能量道具),玩家还可以购买新植物类型等永久道具,以及额外植物插槽或永久性启动关卡升级道具。其售价范围介于2.99至3.99美元。

最后,EA/PopCap还提供三种捆绑销售选项,每者都含有一种植物类型,一些钱币和一项永久性升级内容。

pvsz2-bundles(from pocketgamer)

pvsz2-bundles(from pocketgamer)

我个人通常怀疑这种做法的可行性,因为它让玩家难以评估价值,但这款游戏的这一做法(假设你希望得到其中包含的道具),却是让捆绑内容的售价比单个道具售价优惠44%-64%。

计算价值

《植物大战僵尸2》的iPhone版本已经进入90个国家/地区盈收榜单前100名,在17个国家/地区跻身前10名,在美国榜单位居第17名。

其iPad版本在这90个国家/地区榜单排名101,在17个国家/地区位居第18名,在美国则位列第11名。

使用我们的基本方程来算,这款游戏的成功系统为:

iPhone版本=(17/90)/17=0.011

iPad版本=(18/101)/11=0.016

很显然,其结果还将随时间发展而不断增长,但这两个版本已经达到了我们通常的成功标准系数(0.01)。

盈利系数

我们的盈利系数是根据IAP定价,玩家在游戏中的消费渠道,游戏如何在头10分钟将玩家转化为付费用户等因素而构建的。

《植物大战僵尸2》并没有致力于在头10分钟转化用户,但其IAP分层方式以及2.99美元的最小IAP交易额足以令它获得209这种相对较高的系数。

在此我们将100作为高收益的成功基准。

其他最近的例子包括《The Drowning》(盈利系数仅为49),Machine Zone游戏《Game of War》(盈利系数高达299)。

从这方面来看,我们将《植物大战僵尸2》定义为一款具有极高内在盈利性,但却不需要积极鼓动玩家消费的游戏。

结论:《植物大战僵尸2》

成功系数(iPhone)=0.011

成功系数(iPad)=0.016

盈利系数=209

货币贴现率=2.7

monetizer-graph-21august2013(from pocketgamer)

monetizer-graph-21august2013(from pocketgamer)

(从上图可看出《植物大战僵尸2》与其他几款游戏的区别)

monetizer-quad-graph(from pocketgamer)

monetizer-quad-graph(from pocketgamer)

(总体来看,《植物大战僵尸2》位于我们的第三象限,即高成功率,高收益性)(本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译,拒绝任何不保留版权的转载,如需转载请联系:游戏邦

Monetizer: Plants vs. Zombies 2

What are Crazy Dave’s F2P tricks and techniques

by Jon Jordan

Following on from my speech at the Develop in Brighton 2013 conference, we’re running a weekly column called Monetizer.

You can see previous columns here, and we’re posting screens of the different techniques we come across on a daily basis on our Tumblr page.

As for the concept behind Monetizer, it’s an attempt to quantify the opening 10 minutes or so of significant free-to-play games to check out the early user experience and monetization techniques.

This week, we’re playing EA and PopCap’s Plants vs. Zombies 2.

Give me sunshine

Given that Plants vs. Zombies 2 takes a much-loved and highly successful paid game franchise and converts it to the free-to-play business model, you might think the game would be controversial.

The reason it’s not is (unlike last week’s Monetizer candidate The Drowning) it’s reviewed tremendously well – gaining an 8.5 from review aggregation site Quality Index.

Also, as EA pointed out at Gamescom 2013, the game’s 16 million downloads in two weeks makes it the company’s biggest mobile launch to-date (and currently it’s only available for iOS).

Loading up the game, there’s the option to connect to Facebook, but this isn’t forced. It does use Apple’s Game Center, however. When it starts up, the game also checks for new content and downloads it, but it tries to do it in the background where possible.

Of course, there’s the usual in-your-face request for Push Notifications, which no doubt everyone declines.

Teach me

In terms of demonstrating a very basic tutorial process, Plants vs. Zombies 2 is a great example of restricting gameplay as much as possible to get the key elements across to the player.

This is something that’s reflected throughout the first level of the game, whereby new plants, items and gameplay elements are introduced in a tutorial manner, despite players now being involved in the main game levels.

Similar to the way it layers in gameplay complexity, Plants vs. Zombies 2 is also very smart in the way it introduces monetization.

It takes around 30 minutes before you’re taking directly to the in-game shop. Prior to this, in-game character Crazy Dave gives you some soft currency to buys an time-based consumable to supercharge your offensive plants.

In addition, a new element to the Plant vs. Zombies gameplay (due to F2P) are the direct power-up moves (enabling you to pinch, flick and electrocute zombies for a short period of time).

Again, these are formally introduced, and in these early stages of the game, you earn enough soft currency not to need to spend hard currency on them.

Stacking shelves

In terms of how the store is structured, EA/PopCap has employed 8 bands of transaction value (most companies use 6), ranging from a minimum of $2.99 up to $99.99.

Calculating at the Discount Ratio (the per unit price range comparing a minimum to a maximum transaction), it’s 2.7.

This compares to a typical range of 1.3-1.7 for most games, although as we’ve previously noted, EA’s The Simpsons: Tapped Out has a ratio of 4, so it seems that it’s company policy to reward payers who spend more real cash with proportionally more virtual currency.

As well as buying virtual currency (which is used in-game to buy the consumable power-ups), players can also buy permanent items such as new plant types and upgrades such as additional plant slots or permanent start-level boosts.

These range in price from $2.99 to $3.99.

Finally, EA/PopCap offers three bundles, each containing one plant type, some coins and a permanent upgrade.

Personally, I’m usually suspicious of these, as they are hard for players to value, but in this case (assuming you do want the items contained), the bundles are priced at discounts of between 44 to 64 percent compared to the price for the items if bought individually.

The math

So much for my anecdotal views. It’s time to break out the equations.

Looking at Plants vs. Zombies 2′s success, the iPhone version has already been top 100 top grossing in 90 countries, top 10 in 17 countries, with a US top grossing position of 17.

For iPad, the numbers are 101, 18 and 11 respectively.

So, using our basic equation, we get Success coefficients of…

iPhone = (17/90)/17 = 0.011

iPad = (18/101)/11 = 0.016

Obviously, these will increase over time, but they already meet our nominal success benchmark of 0.01.

Cash in?

Looking at our Monetization coefficient, this is constructed using the pricing of IAP, the confusion in terms of the number of ways real money can be spent in-game, and how actively a game attempts to monetize a player in the first 10 minutes.

Plants vs. Zombies 2 doesn’t do the latter, but its layering of IAP and the $2.99 minimum IAP transaction does give it a fairly high ranking of 209.

We take 100 as our benchmark for high monetization.

Other recent example include The Drowning with 49 (low) and Machine Zone’s Game of War with 299 (high).

In this regard, then, we’d define Plants vs. Zombies 2 as a game with a high level of inherent monetization even if it doesn’t actively push it on players.

Conclusion: Plants vs. Zombies 2

Success coefficient (iPhone) = 0.011

Success coefficient (iPad) = 0.016

Monetizer coefficient = 209

Currency discount ratio = 2.7

Click here for a larger version

(Above you can see Plants vs. Zombies 2 plotted against various other games, although please note Monetizer remains a work-in-process.)

More generally, Plants vs. Zombies 2 sits in our ’3′ quadrant (high success, high monetization).(source:pocketgamer


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