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分析《辛普森一家:枯竭》的市场表现与盈利性

发布时间:2013-08-21 11:21:45 Tags:,,,,

作者:Jon Jordan

关于《辛普森一家:枯竭》所有人都了解两件事。

回到2012年3月,这款游戏面临了一次灾难性的发行,最终艺电因为服务器问题而决定将其从App Store收回。

这款游戏于8月正式回归,并向我们展示了惊人的韧性,至今已攀上美国畅销游戏榜单的前10位了。

的确,在其发行后的第一个财政季度(即从2012年8月到10月),艺电便兴奋地向全世界宣告这款游戏创造了2300万美元的收益。

(我们并不清楚这是净收益还是总收益,并且他们还需要支付巨额的授权费。)

the-simpsons-tapped-out(from ea.com)

the-simpsons-tapped-out(from ea.com)

现在

深入观察这款游戏的最新数值,Bernard Kim揭示了《辛普森一家:枯竭》现在拥有540万日活跃用户——包括iOS和Android平台。

发行后第一个季度的DAU是320万。

Kim也提供了更多关于游戏内部消费的信息,基于这些数值我做了个封底计算,并发现从2013年4月到6月游戏内部经济的价值为5800万美元。

市场情报公司Distimo也有自己的估算。

他们的数值表示《辛普森一家:枯竭》在4月至6月期间通过全新应用内部购买创造了2500万美元。

distimo-the-simpsons-tapped-out-revenue-estimate-2013(from pocketgamer)

the-simpsons-tapped-out-revenue-estimate-2013(from distimo)

我们可以从中看到该游戏每年创造了将近1亿美元的收益;而艺电2013财年的整体销售额为3.39亿美元,因此该游戏这一成绩确实颇为可观。

(郑重声明,我的计算包括了以前的消费金币购买,即艺电在游戏中所提供的,但是Distimo的估算只是关于那段期间用户购买的货币。)

平台分裂

关于收益,Distimo估算游戏的iOS版本占据88%的销量(57%来自iPhone而43%来自iPad),而Google Play仅为12%。

这是因为游戏的Android版本是在2013年2月才发行的。此外,当你下载了40兆的内容时游戏会要求你更新一个350兆的内容;所以比起iOS用户,Android用户更不愿意承担这些内容。

正如我们所预料的,为《辛普森一家:枯竭》带来最多收益的前五名城市分别是美国,英国,加拿大,德国和法国。

app-annie-simpsons-tapped-out-top-grossing-google-play-usa(from pocketgamer)

simpsons-tapped-out-top-grossing-google-play-usa(from app-annie)

(《辛普森:枯竭》虽然还未曾站上美国Google Play畅销游戏排行榜第一名的位置,但是却没人可以说这种情况不会出现)

app-annie-simpsons-tapped-out-top-grossing-iphone-russia(from pocketgamer)

simpsons-tapped-out-top-grossing-iphone-russia(from app-annie)

(从俄罗斯iPhone畅销游戏排行榜上我可以看到“辛普森一家”作为一个全球品牌的强大之处)

app-annie-simpsons-tapped-out-top-grossing-iphone-korea(from pocketgamer)

simpsons-tapped-out-top-grossing-iphone-korea(from app-annie)

(《辛普森一家:枯竭》已经稳稳地扎根于韩国畅销iPhone游戏前100名的榜单上)

app-annie-simpsons-tapped-out-top-grossing-iphone-china(from pocketgamer)

simpsons-tapped-out-top-grossing-iphone-china(from app-annie)

(中国是这款游戏未取得巨大成功的少数区域之一)

另外一个需要的注意的是艺电发行了2个版本的《辛普森一家》。在iOS平台上,这款游戏被划分为美国加拿大版本以及其余世界版本。而在Android平台上,一个版本是面向美国,加拿大,墨西哥,土耳其和阿根廷,另一版本则是面向其它的所有国家。

大概这是为了更好地处理服务器问题。

更多数值

我们将面对的是那些PocketGamer.biz在盈利过程中用于分析的参数。

我们的成功系数使用的是游戏出现在畅销排行榜单前10和前100名的国家数量除以在美国畅销排行榜单上的位置的比例。

(游戏邦注:比例越接近1,表示游戏越成功。)

对于《辛普森一家:枯竭》,Android版本的分数为0.04,iPhone版本为0.87而iPad版本为0.95。

我们的盈利系数(测量游戏如何在前10分钟从玩家身上获得盈利)显示游戏的分数为49,而这低于我们用于定义活跃的盈利结果100上限值。

最重要的是,当我们着眼于贴现率(基于1个单位的硬货币成本去比较最廉价的现金交易和最昂贵的现金交易间的比例),《辛普森一家:枯竭》拥有迄今为止最高的分数——4。

这便意味着如果你花9.99美元(而不是1.99美元),你每1美元便能多获得4倍的甜甜圈;也许这便是这款游戏成为艺电最赚钱游戏的主要原因。

本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译,拒绝任何不保留版权的转载,如需转载请联系:游戏邦

The Charticle: A year on from relaunch, The Simpsons is EA Mobile’s biggest earner

by Jon Jordan

There are two things everyone knows about The Simpsons: Tapped Out.

Back in March 2012, it had a disastrous launch, with EA Mobile eventually being forced to pull the game from the App Store because of server problems.

It returned in August and since then has demonstrated amazing resilience, being glued into the US top grossing top 10 ever since.

Indeed, during the first financial quarter of its launch (August – October 2012), EA happily told the world the game had generated $23 million dollars.

(It wasn’t entirely clear if that was net or gross, and anyhow there will be a fat licensing fee to pay.)

Present date

Looking deeper into more recent figures, EA’s SVP mobile publishing, Bernard Kim revealed the game now has 5.4 million daily active players – across iOS and Android.

This is up from 3.2 million DAUs during the launch quarter.

Kim also provided more information about the consumption of in-game currency, and on that basis I did a back-of-the-envelope calculation that suggested the in-game economy was worth about $58 million in the quarter April to June 2013.

Market intelligence company Distimo has its own estimate.

It reckons The Simpsons: Tapped Out generated $25 million of new in-app purchases in the period April to June.

That would see the game generating around $100 million per year; not bad considering EA Mobile’s entire sales in FY13 were $339 million.

(For the record, my calculation also included consumption of coins previously purchased and those EA gives away in-game, while Distimo’s was just for currency purchased by users during the period.)

Platform split

In terms of revenue breakdown, Distimo reckons the iOS version has generated 88 percent of sales (split 57 percent iPhone to 43 percent iPad) compared to 12 percent from devices using Google Play.

This is partly because the Android version wasn’t released until February 2013. In addition, the game requires a 350 MB update once you’ve downloaded the 40 MB stub; something that Android users are less likely to want to undertake than those on iOS devices.

As would be expected, the top five revenue countries for The Simpsons: Tapped Out are the US (highest), followed by the UK, Canada, Germany and France.

The Simpsons: Tapped Out hasn’t yet hit the #1 top grossing position on the US Google Play chart, but you wouldn’t bet against it – via App Annie

The Simpsons’ power as a global brand can be seen in the Russian iPhone top grossing chart

The Simpsons: Tapped Out has been comfortably in the top 100 top grossing iPhone games in South Korea

China is one of the few region in which the game hasn’t seen consistently strong success

Another interesting point to note is that EA has released two versions of the game. For iOS, this is split into a version for the US and Canada, and one for the rest of the world. For Android, it’s one version for the US, Canada, Mexico, Turkey and Argentina, and one for the rest of the world.

Presumably this is to better manage server issues.

More numbers

The final metrics we’ll look at are those PocketGamer.biz uses to analyse games as part of its Monetizer process.

Our Success coefficient uses the ratio of the number of countries in which a game has been in the top 10 and top 100 top grossing charts, divided by the top grossing position in the US.

(The closer to 1, the more successful the game.)

For The Simpsons: Tapped Out, the Android version scores 0.04, the iPhone version scores 0.87 and the iPad version 0.95

Our Monetizer coefficient (a measure of how actively the first 10 minutes of a game looks to monetize its audience) sees the game scoring 49, well below the ceiling of 100 that we use to define active monetization.

You can see where it sits on our work-in-process graph here.

And, most significantly, when we look at the Discount Ratio (the ratio of the cost of a unit of hard currency comparing the cheapest real money transaction with the most expensive), The Simpsons: Tapped Out has scored the highest we’ve seen to-date – 4.

That means you get four times as many donuts per dollar if you spend $9.99 as if you spend $1.99; perhaps one good reason why the game remains the #1 earner for EA Mobile.(source:pocketgamer)


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