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每日观察:关注分析师对King上市情况的看法(6.21)

发布时间:2013-06-21 11:23:57 Tags:,,,

1)据venturebeat报道,苹果分析师Brian White最近表示,苹果可能会“随时”发布低价iPhone。根据他所搜集的信息,他发现所谓的“iPhone Mini”屏幕为4英寸左右,采用略厚的塑料材质,将推出5种颜色方案,零售价为350-400美元左右(相当于iPhone一半的价格)。

观察者认为低价iPhone或许有助于增加苹果在中国等新兴市场的占有率(游戏邦注:中国已是全球最大的智能手机市场,但Android在中国占据半数以上市场份额),同时也有利于增加苹果在北美和欧洲的市场份额。

iphone-mini(from emerginggrowth)

iphone-mini(from emerginggrowth)

2)据venturebeat报道,King公司准备上市的消息引起业内高度关注,因为这是自Zynga在2011年IPO之后首家宣布进行上市准备的主流社交游戏公司。

尽管King的上市前景可能招致许多怀疑,但Wedbush分析师Michael Pachter却认为King业务比Zynga更为多样化,并且在移动平台的势头也强于后者;King比Zynga更具盈利性,虽然其收益不及后者,但开支也远低于后者。

candy-crush-saga(from businessinsider)

candy-crush-saga(from businessinsider)

EEDAR副总裁Jesse Divinch认为,与所有粉丝一样,社交游戏玩家对发行商和开发商并不会很忠诚,King必须依靠游戏质量和持续发展才能取胜。他推测King可能会进行小型的IPO,可能仅推出10-20%的已发行股票,这意味着其股票供应很少,而需求却会相当之大,因此King的IPO应该不会太令人失望。

3)据Tech In Asia报道,韩国游戏发行商Com2us日前宣布自2012年7月以来,公司手机游戏平台使用率增长将近3倍,每月进入平台的玩家达2800万,每日活跃用户达480万(在11个月之前,该平台每月用户为1000万,日活跃用户为220万)。

com2us-logo(from joyme.com)

com2us-logo(from joyme.com)

这意味着Com2uS在去年7月其日活跃用户在月活跃用户中占比22%,而现在这一比例已降至17.1%,这表明该公司用户规模增长速度远超过用户忠诚度。

在上一季度Com2us收益为249亿韩元(约2240万),比2012年第四季度增长17%。

4)据insidemobileapps报道,最近有不少iOS应用开发者发起了一项非正式请愿,请求苹果移除App Store中的排名系统。

Instapaper开发者Marco Arment在其个人博客中指出,应用开发者都在为App Store中有限的顶级付费应用排名位置而竞争,而用户则出于“热门应用必为优秀产品”的心理而下载应用,事实上这种心理只会促使开发者舍本逐末,关注如何保住在排行榜的名次,而非自己所销售的产品。

app store(from insidemobileapps)

app store(from insidemobileapps)

他称这种排名只会有利于那些获得大量用户的开发者,导致他们忽略如何为长期的用户满意度或更高的粘性而优化产品。此外,这种现象也会误导用户,让他们误下载了那些靠人为操纵下载量和排名的劣质应用。

5)据gamezebo报道,休闲游戏公司PlayFirst日前宣布将推出《Diner Dash》系列新游戏《Diner Dash Rush》,但仅公布了该游戏logo,并未透露更多详情。

Diner Dash Rush(from appannie)

Diner Dash Rush(from appannie)

预计该游戏将于6月27日发布,如果从PlayFirst已确立的移动优先原则来看,再结合iOS将于6月27日发布新操作系统的消息,该游戏很可能最先登陆iPhone/iPad平台。(本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译,拒绝任何不保留版权的转载,如需转载请联系:游戏邦

1)Cheaper iPhone Mini is ‘imminent,’ analyst says: 4-inch screen, 5 colors, $350-400

John Koetsier

Apple could launch the lower-price iPhone at virtually any moment, according to Apple analyst Brian White.

“The lower-price iPhone is imminent, and we believe it is now up to Apple to choose exactly when to unveil this new device to the world,” White says in his most recent research note to investors.

White says that based on the information he collected during a recent trip to Asia and various accessories he saw, the “iPhone Mini” will have a 4-inch screen, a slightly thicker plastic body, and will arrive in five colors. The device will have tapered, rounded edges and will retail for about $350-400.

That’s about half as much as the iPhone 5.

One of the leaked images of the new iPhone Mini, reportedly.

The iPhone Mini has been rumored for months, and White had suggested way back in April that Apple would launch the new phone in July. In contrast, however, Apple chief executive officer

Tim Cook has led investors to believe that there would be no major new product announcements until the fall. Apparently, the first new Mac Pro desktop/tower/trash can/lipstick container to
be announced in years does not count.

Apple’s new iPhone Mini would be a huge help in emerging markets such as China, where a Morgan Stanley analyst has said it could triple Apple’s market share. China is now the world’s

largest smartphone market, and Android owns more than half of it. Apple has so far failed to do a deal with China Mobile – the nation’s largest carrier, with a staggering 735 million mobile customers — which could push its stock back to the glory days of 2012.

But a cheaper phone would also be useful right here in North America as well as in Western Europe, where Apple has priced itself out of the reach of some consumers, limiting its market share.(source:venturebeat

2)Social publisher King’s potential IPO is probably not Zynga 2.0

Jeffrey Grubb

Earlier this week, social-video-game developer King began hiring banks to help it plot a course to going public. The studio could make its initial public offering (IPO) later this year.

King, which is best known for its Candy Crush Saga mobile game, may face doubters simply because it is the first major social developer of this size to go public since Zynga’s disappointing IPO in 2011. Parallels definitely exist between the two companies, but King is probably better positioned than even Zynga was.

“King is a lot more diversified than Zynga and is pretty strong on mobile, which is growing fast,” Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter said.

Candy Crush Saga is King’s hot property right now, but the developer was making money long before that title rushed to the top of the iOS and Android charts. Candy Crush is also one of the top-grossing games on Facebook, where the studio has a history of success. King.com is also a major source of revenue for the company.

FarmVille developer Zynga, on the other hand, really only had a strong Facebook roster when it went public. Zynga.com and its mobile offerings don’t really match up to what King is doing with its similar products.

“King is far more profitable than Zynga. It has lower revenues but a lot lower expenses,” said Pachter.

Still, it’s not like King’s diversity lies in several stable sectors. Candy Crush Saga is generating a ton of cash for the company, but fads come and go on mobile.

“Much like the social-gaming sector, the mobile market can be just a volatile,” EEDAR vice president of insights Jesse Divinch told GamesBeat. “Success with one game — or even a few — doesn’t mean it is sustainable long-term, as we’ve seen with Zynga.”

Zynga’s IPO debuted at $10 a share. After the stock jumped above $14 in March 2012, that value quickly eroded to just $3 in August. It is trading at $2.90 today. That’s because the company had a massive audience and couldn’t retain it. It’s something many people will remember when the time comes to decide on investing in King.

“But just because Zynga couldn’t sustain its ecosystem, that shouldn’t be entirely applicable to King,” said Divinch. “But it certainly provides a history lesson for King and for us all. Certainly, though, King can capitalize on its existing user base for a good three years with little effort.”

After that, it’s all about retention. Social gamers, like all fans, aren’t very loyal to publishers and developers.

“Long-term, it will come down to game quality and whether King can grow or even sustain their current success,” said Divinch. “Anytime your revenue is attached to a large casual user base — even if they are addicted to your games — you should be concerned about how to maintain loyalty overtime.”

Finally, Pachter believes that simple arithmetic will insulate King from disappointment.

“My guess is that the IPO will be small, probably only 10 to 20 percent of the outstanding stock,” he said. “That means supply will be small, and demand might be pretty big, so I doubt that the IPO will be disappointing.”(source:venturebeat

3)Com2us triples its monthly mobile users to 28 million in less than a year

by Keith Andrew

Korean games publisher Com2us has claimed usage of its mobile games hub has almost tripled since July 2012, with 28 million gamers tapping into the platform every month.

That’s according to stats given to Tech In Asia, which reports Com2us’ hub – which encourages sign ups by saving a user’s game progress – now attracts 4.8 million active users a day.

Hub-bub

That’s up from the 10 million monthly figure pushed out by Com2us 11 months ago, when 2.2 million users were playing its games daily.

For the record, that means 22 percent of Com2us’ monthly base were playing daily last July compared to a smaller 17.1 percent today, suggesting Com2us is growing its wider base at a faster rate than those more loyal to its titles.

Nonetheless, news of the company’s growth has been coupled by the release of three new games for the hub on iOS and Android – Golf Star, Brave Heroes and Defense Technica – making good on the company’s previously stated aim of releasing 16 games across the current quarter.

Defense Technica

Com2us posted record revenues of 24.9 billion KRW (approximately $22.4 million) during the previous quarter, up 17 percent from Q4 2012.(source:pocketgamer

4)How App Store Rankings Affect Developers and Gamers

Brandy Shaul

An informal petition has been launched among iOS app developers, each stating their views on why Apple should remove its chart system from the App Store. Instapaper creator Marco Arment is one of the many voices pleading for Apple to remove the lists, and his reasoning is incredibly sound.

On his personal blog, Arment examines why Apple should remove top lists, but the major reasons are all generally common sense. App developers compete for the few spots on the App Store’s top paid apps list, as this chart drives consumer downloads under the idea that “if it’s popular, it must be good.” In reality, this hive mind mentality only encourages developers to care less about the actual product they’re selling, and more about undercutting the competition to stay on top of the charts.

“Developers will optimize for whatever factor is being rewarded. The “top” list simply rewards developers for getting as many people as possible to buy or download the app once,” says Arment. “There’s no reason to optimize for longer-term satisfaction or higher engagement after purchase.”

This drive for the top spot hurts consumers who are often fooled by companies that pay to have their app’s popularity artificially inflated through fake downloads, but Quote-Unquote Apps’ John August goes one step further to detail how this practice hurts developers as well.

August’s example sees a developer pricing a $10 app for $1, just to earn that coveted place on the top app charts. “For that reason alone, you might pick that price even though you now have ten times the customers to support,” August says. “By pricing it for the masses, you’re dealing with the masses.”

For all of these reasons, August believes the best-selling charts shouldn’t be available to the public eye. “Charts encourage developers to focus on competitors rather than customers. So get rid of ‘em,” he says. In doing so, developers can get back to what matters over the long term: creating quality apps rather than flooding the store with clones that are downloaded once and never used again.(source:insidemobileapps

5)Diner Dash Rush announced, coming June 27

By Jim Squires

While some game announcements are filled with screenshots, details, and more promises than a discount engagement ring warehouse, other developers like to keep things mysterious. With that in mind, PlayFirst has just announced the next game in the Diner Dash series by merely teasing a logo.

So what’s Diner Dash Rush? We’re as puzzled as you are. We reached out to PlayFirst for additional info, and it netted us a little bit. Here’s what President and CEO Marco DeMiroz had to say;

“We’re thrilled to announce Diner Dash Rush, the latest and greatest installment in the fan-favorite DASH franchise, with a sneak-peek at the logo for the very first time. Stay tuned for more exciting details to be revealed about the newest antics of Dinertown as we count down to launch on June 27.”

Do we have any idea what the game is? No. Do we know when it’s coming? Yes! One week until the big reveal, folks.

And while no platforms have been confirmed, PlayFirst’s established mobile-first attitude combined with the 27th falling on a Thursday – the big day for iOS releases – suggests that this one will be iPhone and/or iPad bound. (source:gamezebo


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