美国手机应用专业分析网站flurry在时隔半年之后（上一篇是4月1日，Flurry：开发者iPad应用开发热情势不可挡）再次推出博客研究文章。文章标题上《iphone（社交游戏）将成为下一代的美国偶像吗》。

guiding-light

2009年10月5日，哥伦比亚广播公司关闭了他们旗下历史最悠久创建于1952年的情景剧Guiding Light。今年9月哥伦比亚公司旗下的另外一款老牌节目As The World Turns在运转50年之后也被取消。

肥皂泡剧的广告营收从2005年到2009年，跌了将近30%，而单单今年的上半年就狂跌了20%。

从90年代开始，电视业务就开始受到了互联网和DVRs的强烈冲击。business insider网站曾经在9月中旬报道过以facebook为首的社交网站和以zynga为首的社交游戏正在吸引走大量本来属于肥皂剧观众的用户。该文章宣称现在全美有1亿5000万的用户活跃在facebook上面，而zynga旗下的游戏每月也有超过2亿的用户。据称女性是社交游戏的主要用户来源，这些女性主要集中在18到50岁之间，而这些刚好的肥皂泡剧的目标观众。通俗地讲zynga创造了足以毁灭肥皂泡剧的机器。

Flurry_iOSsocialGames_vs_PrimeTimeTV

现在flurry以图例分析的形式认为其实苹果旗下的iphone和IOS社交游戏也是美国肥皂剧杀手之一。文章称iphone、ipad或者ipod touch上的社交游戏正在和电视节目争夺用户。据flurry追踪的数据显示，每天有高达1900万的用户用22分钟的时间玩手机游戏。访问量已经介于全国广播公司旗下的Sunday Night Football和美国广播公司旗下的Dancing with the Stars之间。这样的数据看起来只比福克斯旗下的American Idol少400万观众。（flurry追踪了app store250000个应用当中的50000个，比例只占20%，但是该范围主要覆盖社交游戏和社交网络应用两个类别）（本文由游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译）

On October 5, 2009, CBS canceled “Guiding Light,” the longest running television drama in history, which began in 1952.  Last month, CBS aired the last episode of “As the World Turns,” the Proctor & Gamble production that has been running for more than 50 years.  Ad dollars allocated to soaps fell nearly 30 percent from 2005 to 2009, and then fell another 20 percent in the first half of 2010.

Since the 90s, the television industry has been reeling from the disruptive forces of the Internet and DVRs.  No longer could the industry depend on a captive audience to which it had grown so accustomed.   While the industry has adapted its programming with a glut of cheaper, but profitable competition reality shows and edgier dramas to reclaim a loyal audience, a new entertainment force is once again driving disruption: the iPhone.  The chart below illustrates how iOS social games, a popular form of gaming mixed with social networking, stack up against primetime TV viewership.

Social games on iPhone, iPad and iPod touch devices are competing for television viewers.  In fact, these apps, tracked on the Flurry network alone, comprise of a daily audience of more than 19 million who spend over 22 minutes per day using these apps.  Treated as a consumer audience, its size and reach rank somewhere between NBC’s Sunday Night Football and ABC’s Dancing with the Stars, and only 4 million viewers shy from beating the number one prime-time show on television, FOX’s American Idol.

However, Flurry is only seeing part of the picture.  With Flurry integrated into more than 50,000 apps, out of Apple’s stated total of 250,000 apps, Flurry has about 20% penetration.

Additionally, since this analysis focuses on only two categories of applications, social games and social networking apps, it’s clear that iOS devices are already ahead of prime time television’s hottest shows.

Given that the app store only launched in July 2008, these figures are staggering.  Mass consumption of applications on mobile devices has exploded in record time.   Also noteworthy is that the enormous audience these applications reach takes place every day, 365 days a year.  Compared to a top television series, which airs 22 episodes a season, advertisers can reach a larger consumer audience through applications 15 times more frequently.

There are a lot of conclusions that can be drawn from this phenomenal shift in audience behavior. The most obvious is the impact on the advertisement industry, which has relied on the reach generated by its prime time television slot for years.  This season, while Americon Idol is busy shuffling judges, the people have voted: iOS social games are as prime time as prime time television.  Enjoy the show!（source：flurry）