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预测中国手机游戏市场在2013年的发展

发布时间:2013-02-05 14:27:40 Tags:,,,,

作者:Henry Fong

虽然2013年刚刚到来,但是我已经能从中国的手机游戏市场中看到今年的一些发展趋势。一些较强大的趋势还有可能逆转全球游戏产业。如果你计划在今年面向iOS和Android开发游戏,你更需要关注这些趋势。我们需要注意的一大趋势是:2013年中国的Android和iOS市场将突破4亿用户。2012年,中国的iOS和Android设备安装率大约为2亿多。(中国最大的手机分析平台友盟在2012年10月的追踪数据表示,Android设备的拥有率超过1.4亿,而iOS设备的拥有率为6千多万。)

根据市场调查公司,如IHS iSuppli的数据,今年将会出现2.68亿的新用户,而主流智能手机制造商还希望将今年中国智能手机销量翻两番,所以4亿的智能手机基础似乎已成为一个既定的事实。换个角度说:在2013年年末,中国智能手机的拥有者数量将超过美国,英国和加拿大人口的总和。

china-smartphone(from mobisights.com)

china-smartphone(from mobisights.com)

关于这种发展还有一定需要注意的是:尽管像三星和苹果等全球化制造商在中国市场仍将维持着稳定的销量,但是一些基于Android操作系统的本土品牌,如华为,中兴,联想,以及一些山寨设备却成为这种发展的主要推动力。例如我们的团队便对一款全新山寨Android手机(带有HTC的logo)进行了研究,发现它从外观看来与三星的Galaxy Note非常相似,并且能够有效地运行我们的所有Android游戏,最关键的是,它的售价不到50美元。

你可能会好奇,这些“山寨”手机的销量怎样?根据分销合作伙伴的数据,他们每个月共会卖出1百多万台山寨手机。市场上共有多少不同的山寨手机?超级多!

最后,中国手机运营商正在改变他们的方向,即转向基于智能手机的整体结构。今天,当我们走进中国手机店时将会注意到,商品架上摆放的都是智能手机。如此看来,我只能说关于2013年年末中国智能手机销量为4亿的预测还过于保守。随着智能手机市场的扩展,智能手机游戏的市场也将随之壮大。2012年,Niko Partners估计中国的手机游戏玩家为1.92亿。所以如果手机玩家的发展速度与智能手机市场保持同步,我们可以预见2013年中国的手机游戏玩家将超过3.5亿。

也许我们应该说说Android/iOS——这也引出了我的下一个预测:

中国的Android游戏年——通过支配率,盈利以及联合来看

就像之前提到的,友盟的分析表示,去年中国iOS设备的拥有率为6千万,而Android设备的拥有率达到了1.4亿——也就是iOS用户占30%,而Android用户占70%。而今年,Android的市场份额将继续上升,可能达到整体市场的75%至80%。

随着Android市场份额的提升,该平台上的游戏盈利率也将随之上升。首先,2012年中国Android游戏收益仍较低,所以必须继续往上爬。但更重要的是,中国最大的手机运营商,游戏发行商以及游戏平台/应用商店最终决定联合起来为Android玩家简化应用检索,下载和付费过程。

androidbig(from gamasutra)

androidbig(from gamasutra)

这种合作解决了Android手机游戏收益较低的问题。直到现在,Android用户仍未迎来最简单的应用内部付费方式。中国的每个Android应用商店(共有好几百个)都拥有不同的付费方式,并且所有的付费方式都较复杂,通常都需要玩家经历6至10步的注册过程。

现在,所有主要的中国运营商都创建了通道生态系统,以推动收益的提升。(例如中国移动便推出了IDO通道程序,允许大型应用商店提起申请,并能够将运营商计费代码发给开发商们。)除此之外,中国的游戏开发商们也想出了如何更好地优化应用内部购买设计,而中国的游戏玩家们也已经习惯于一键式运营商计费模式。

运营商计费开始能够帮助休闲社交游戏在Android平台上更好地盈利,但是在2012年,大多数Android游戏的盈利主要是经过基于手机的硬核MMO以及定制的应用商店支付网关。随着这些大型应用应用商店的注册用户基础的增加,玩家将更轻松且更频繁地进行应用内部购买。

例如中国Android应用商店HiAPK每个月通过应用内部购买所获得的收益便为5百万美元,其每月的每付费用户平局收益也超过50美元。单单HiAPK每个月便能推动超过1.1亿次应用下载,根据HiAPK的首席执行官Joe Wu的描述,2013年将是该公司飞速发展的一年,他们的预计收入将为8千万美元,并且这还只是一家中的Android应用商店的情况。

除此之外,我们还希望该平台的应用商店能够联合在一起。如今,中国市场中有好几百个网站能够下载到Android应用,所以在这个市场中,发现,推广与付费过程极为分散,如此我们很快便会发现应用商店的数量将从5百多缩小到只剩下少数巨头——能够承担应用内部的运营商费用;而这些巨头将开始联合发现与推广挑战,并为中国玩家带来更多优秀的游戏,让Android设备上的付费过程变得相对简单。(游戏邦注:之所以强调“相对”是因为,现在只有一些付费工具包能够进行整合,而你的Android推广合作伙伴的列表也将被压缩到只剩2位数。)所以中国市场还不能像西方市场(有Google Play和亚马逊挺着)那样轻松应对这种状况。

从今年开始,在中国开发Android游戏变得越来越赚钱,但这也并非意味着完美。例如还有另外一个重要的警告:基于Android系统的平板电脑很难获得有效盈利,因为中国市场的大多数平板电脑都未设置sim卡槽。但却很少游戏开发商了解这一点,不过对于中国分销业务来说,面向中国的Android平板电脑市场开发游戏将是最糟糕的财政决定。

说到平板电脑,我相信2013年将是这一设备崛起的一年:

iPad Mini将成为中国手机游戏之王

这一预测也许不只局限于中国市场,但我们仍需要强调:iPad Mini将成为手机游戏之王。其较长的电池寿命能维持硬核游戏长达好几个小时,更关键的是,其合适的规格比原来的iPad更能有效地呈现iPhone游戏。

ipadmini(from gamasutra)

ipadmini(from gamasutra)

同时,iPad Mini的价格也更加亲民,并且中国市场的情况也让它更具有吸引力,即不像西方用户那样习惯于基于折扣而购买iPhone,大多数中国用户都是全价购得iPhone。(现在iPhone 5的零售价大约为850至900美元)。同时,因为iPad Mini在中国的售价为350至400美元,所以更多人能够买得起这一设备。

虽然我认为平板电脑市场正在发展着,但是因为手机领域的发展更加迅速,所以平板电脑的市场份额也许只能保持平稳发展,或者出现下滑。

这便引出了我的下一个预测,即什么类型的游戏将在今年的手机平台上大放异彩:

2013年中国游戏开发的赢家是休闲游戏,本土游戏还是本土化的西方游戏?

在2012年下半年,硬核在线游戏和MMO主导着中国最畅销的iOS游戏和Android游戏榜单,但是因为越来越多人进入了智能手机市场,并且更多人选择了休闲游戏,所以这种格局将出现改变。我们期待更多休闲单人游戏能够出现在中国畅销游戏榜单上,特别是当游戏工作室开始学着如何利用免费休闲游戏盈利,并通过应用内部购买而获得更广泛的认可。

从去年到现在我们也发现市场中的另外一种变化——更多开发商抛弃了西方游戏而选择了中国本土游戏,或者基于中国市场而将西方游戏本土化,呈现出更适合中国玩家的主题,故事和对话等。

2012年初,市场上的许多畅销游戏都属于非本土化游戏,如《植物大战僵尸》和《无尽之剑》,但是现在主导着畅销排行榜的游戏都是带有中国名字与汉语(即使它们是来自美国或欧洲市场)的游戏。随着更高质量与完全文化定制游戏的到来,如今玩家可以选择直接迎合自己需求的游戏了。我估计2013年将有超过80%的畅销游戏是属于完全本土化或文化定制的游戏。

而为了在这一市场中获得竞争优势,西方开发商们便需要进一步优化自己的游戏,从而确保游戏的图像,主题和盈利机制能够符合中国玩家的付费和游戏习惯。

西方开发商们必须投入一定的时间去准备面向中国市场推出自己的游戏,但是我敢肯定他们一定会在今年采取适当行动:毕竟4亿多的用户基础是个极大的诱惑。

本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译,拒绝任何不保留版权的转载,如需转载请联系:游戏邦

Four must-read predictions about the Chinese mobile game market in 2013

By Henry Fong

2013 has only just started, but from our office in Beijing, I can already see several major trends in China’s mobile gaming market taking shape. Some are so large, they stand a good chance of turning the global game industry on its head. And if you plan on developing games for iOS and Android this year, I think you’ll want to pay close attention. Here’s four to watch for in the year ahead:
China’s Android and iOS Market Will Break 400 Million in 2013
In 2012, China had an install base of over 200 million iOS and Android devices. (Umeng, the largest mobile analytics platform in the country, tracked over 140 million Android devices and over 60 million iOS devices as of October 2012.)

With market research firms such as IHS iSuppli projecting 268 million new shipments this year and most major smartphone manufacturers expected to double sales in China this year, 400 million smartphone devices would seem a fait accompli. To put this into perspective: By end of 2013, there will probably be more smartphone owners in China than the total populations of the United States, the UK, and Canada combined.

One important point to note about this growth: Although global manufacturers such as Samsung and Apple derive solid device sales in China, the bulk of growth stems from local brands such as Huawei, ZTE, and Lenovo, as well as a slew of ultra-low end “shanzai” (i.e. counterfeit) devices, powered by the Android OS. Consider: At our office, the team just reviewed a new knockoff Android phone (with an HTC logo on it) which looks remarkably like a Samsung Galaxy Note, plays all our Android games remarkably well — and sells for less than $50.

And that’s just one model of Android currently available in China; we’re seeing a proliferation of other ulta-low end Android phones. How many of these “shanzai” phones are being sold, you ask? According to distribution partners, over a million units of this one particular phone are being shipped each month. How many different shanzai phones are there on the market? LOTS.

Finally, China’s mobile operators are changing their entire lineup to be smartphone-based. Walk into a China carrier store today, and you’ll notice the majority of devices on sale are smartphones. All this in mind, I’d say 400 million smartphones by 2013′s end is a forecast on the conservative side. And since the total smartphone market will be massive, the market for smartphone gaming will be large too. In 2012, Niko Partners estimated 192 million mobile gamers in China. So if mobile gamers continue growing at pace with the total smartphone market, we can expect to have an addressable audience well over 350 million.

Or maybe we should say Android/iOS — because this leads me to my next prediction:

China’s Year of Android Gaming — By Dominance, Monetization, and Consolidation

As noted , Umeng analytics placed the Chinese smartphone market at 60 million iOS devices, and 140 million Android devices last year — i.e. 30 percent iOS, 70 percent Android. This year, for the reasons I’ve mentioned above, the Android share will probably increase, to more like 75-80 percent of the total market.

As Android’s share increases, so will monetization rates for games on this platform. I’m talking massive growth, with year-on-year increases over tenfold. For one thing, Android gaming revenue in China was so small for most of 2012, it has nowhere to go but up. But far more crucial, China’s largest mobile operators, game publishers, and gaming platform/app stores have finally figured out that working together to simplify the discovery, download, and payment process for Android players results in huge game money.

This cooperation solves a major problem that’s made Android revenue so tiny. Up to now, there was no easy way for an Android user to make an in-app payment. Every Android app store in China (and there are hundreds) had a different payment method, and none of them were easy, often requiring a 6 to 10 step registration process.

Now all the major China carriers have built out a channel ecosystem that facilitates carrier billing. (China Mobile, for example, just launched the IDO channel program, which allows the big app stores to apply for and issue carrier billing codes to developers.) At roughly the same time, game developers in China have figured out how to optimize in-app purchase design, while Chinese players have grown accustomed to the convenience of one-click carrier billing.

Carrier billing is starting to enable casual social titles on Android to monetize well, but in 2012, most Android game monetization occurred through mobile-based hardcore MMOs with custom app store payment gateways. As the registered user base for these large app stores have grown, gamers making in-app purchases have also become easier and more frequent.

For instance, HiAPK, a leading Android app store in China, processes around US$5 million of in-app payments monthly, with monthly ARPPU at over US$50. HiAPK alone drives over 110 million app downloads each month, and according to Joe Wu, HiAPK’s CEO, 2013 will be a year of hyper growth for the company, with projected revenues of US$80 million… and that’s just one Android app store in China.

As part of this growth of the Android, we expect to see the platform’s app stores start to consolidate. Where China now has hundreds of sites to download Android apps (yes, really) and a market where discovery, distribution, and payment are insanely fragmented, we’re soon going to see the number of app stores shrink from over 500 to about a dozen major players who can handle carrier billing for in-app payments; these players will also start to consolidate the discovery and distribution challenge, getting good games into the hands of Chinese gamers and making payment on Android devices relatively easier. (Emphasis on “relatively”: Now there’s only about a dozen payment SDK’s to integrate and your Android distribution partner list is reduced to double digits.) So still not quite as easy as Western markets, where there’s only Google Play and Amazon to deal with.

Starting this year, then, developing Android games in China will be more monetizable than it has ever been – but again, that doesn’t mean it’ll be perfect. For instance, here’s another important caveat: Android-based tablets are not likely to monetize well yet, because most tablets on the Chinese market don’t have a sim card slot, which precludes them from doing carrier billing. Very few game developers know this, but it’s an important point for China distribution: Right now, developing games optimized for the Android tablet market in China could be the worst financial decision they’ll ever make.

Speaking of tablets, I’m fairly confident 2013 will be the year for an undisputed champion to rise:

iPad Mini Could Become China’s King of Mobile Games

This prediction is probably larger than just the China market, but it’s still more than worth a mention here: the iPad Mini is going to be the king of mobile games. Its long battery life makes hardcore gaming for many hours at a time possible, and just as key, due to its right-sized form factor, games optimized for the iPhone play better on the Mini than the larger iPads.

The device’s price point opens it up to a much larger demographic, and here’s the Chinese twist that makes it even more attractive to the gaming market here: Unlike Western consumers, who are accustomed to getting deep discounts for their iPhones through a carrier contract, most Chinese tend to pay full price for their iPhones. (The iPhone 5 now retails here for $850-900.) Meanwhile, the iPad Mini retails in China for about $350-400, which makes it both an effective and affordable mobile game device.

However, while I definitely think the tablet market is going to grow, my guess is its share of the total mobile market will remain flat or even decrease, simply because the phone space is growing so quickly.

This brings us to my next forecast, on the kind of games that will do well on mobile this year:

China’s Development Game Winners for 2013: Casual, Local, and Well-Localized Western Games

For the latter half of 2012, the top grossing iOS and Android game charts in China were dominated by hardcore online games and MMOs, but that’s already shifted as more people enter the smartphone market, and more of them come looking for casual games to play. We expect more casual single-player titles to become top grossers in China, especially (as I noted above) as game studios learn to better monetize their freemium casual games, and carrier billing for in-app payments gains broader acceptance.

We’re also seeing another shift from last year’s market to now — a move away from Western games toward Chinese titles, and to Western games deeply localized and culturalized for the Chinese market, with themes, stories and dialog relevant to players in China.

In early 2012, a significant number of top games on the market were non-localized hits like Plants vs. Zombies and Infinity Blade, but now the charts are ruled by games with Chinese names and language (even if they were first made in the U.S. or Europe). With the advent of so many high quality, fully-culturalized titles, players here naturally gravitate to the products that directly cater to them. In 2013, I’d estimate over 80 percent of the top games by distribution and grossing will likely be fully localized and culturalized titles.

To compete in this market, Western developers need to optimize their games so that the artwork, themes, and monetization are appropriate to how Chinese players like to pay and play. I discussed this at length in a previous post for Gamasutra, and can point to the recent success we had with Powder Monkeys, a casual hybrid which became the top downloaded game in China last month, even though it was developed by our pals XMG Studio in Canada.

No doubt it’ll take some time for Western developers to prepare their products for the China market, but I’m confident a lot of them will start this year: After all, they’ll soon have over 400 million reasons to get it right. (source:gamasutra)


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