作者：Carter Dotson

如果不爆发，手机市场就什么也不是。

一年的时间往往足以发生惊天巨变，而要预言后来的12个月将发生什么事却很困难。2013年的手机游戏市场将遇到的许多转折点。

在本文中，我将就业内人士都关注的问题探讨2013年游戏行业发展状况。

新iOS硬件设计意味着什么？

当然，iPhone和iPad的新版本每年都会出，但下一个版本将带来什么，总是一个倍受关注的话题。

iphone(from pocketgamer)

iPad仍然会是4：3的分辨率吗？新iPhone为了赶超Android手机，今年会再次激增分辨率，使其达到1080p吗？什么时候会推出？

iPad mini又怎么样呢？在性能上是保持落后一代的状态，还是在某些方面赶上全尺寸的iPad？iPod touch似乎有更新了，或者还要再等一年？

开发商能否忍受当前性能不足的硬件？

Android开发商总是必须考虑不同硬件的性能级别，而iOS工作室也不得不这么做。

iOS设备采用A5处理器大约已经到了第二个年头，但普及率仍然高得惊人。

不仅iPhone 4S和iPad 2广泛使用A5——苹果仍然在出售这两款产品，而且最新的iPod touch和iPad mini也不例外。

开发商必须考虑这些设备，将它们当作“当前硬件”，尽管它们缺少与iPhone 5 和第四代iPad相当的性能。然而，让人担忧的是，A5硬件已经无法顺畅运行如《现代战争4》这种高性能游戏。

Android在2013年将扮演什么角色？

长久以来，Android一直是iOS的劲敌——确实，就用户基础而言，iOS仍处于遥遥领先的地位，但谷歌平台现在似乎越来越逼近游戏平台的前线。

虽然与成百上千种型号的设备打交道仍然使许多小型开发商感到为难，但Android用户的绝对数量将继续吸引大量开发商在这个平台上发布游戏。成功的传奇仍然存在，但失败的故事也不会中止。

Android会不会成为与iOS一样可靠的平台呢？能不能将其作为发行游戏的优先平台呢？如Project Shield等硬件是否会影响Android游戏市场？

shield(from pocketgamer)

独立游戏开发者有望与行业巨头竞争吗？

大发行商越来越成为游戏市场的主宰，因为他们能支撑游戏高居排行榜所需的营销成本。特别是GREE和DeNA，他们将继续往欧美地区扩张。

越来越难“被关注”的独立游戏开发者会不会在某天完全退出市场？

多亏了Semi Secret Software的《Hundreds》，不但成功闯入iPad排行榜的前十名（在美国地区还是“编辑精选”），而且在iPhone排行榜上也名列前茅——售价为2.99美元。

然而，那是一家建立已有一段时间的开发工作室；那些新工作室可没有那么好的运气受到关注。

电视游戏会成功吗？

坐在电视前玩游戏玩的并不一定就是“手机游戏”，但它有可能成为行业的前进方向。

破了Kickstarter集体融资纪录的Ouya正在吸引开发商的目光，不久将上架出售。竞争设备GameStick也在Kickstarter上进行30小时的融资活动。

ouya(from pocketgamer)

虽然这些都是Android设备，但别忘了，苹果有办法扭转战局，比如在Apple TV中引入应用商店或发布其他专用电视设备。

苹果政策调整会产生什么影响？

正如2012年证明的，苹果可能会继续在趁人不备时调整政策。

例如，应用推广服务就尤其要谨慎，以免因为将整个商业寄托在一个战略或技术上，导致经营的完全失败。

值得注意的另一点是，持续的政策调整可能会让一些开发商将关注焦点转向Android。Android虽然越来越受到谷歌政策的制约，但比较之下，仍然是一片自由的区域。

集体融资是泡沫吗？

2012大概是集体融资兴起的一年——无论是默默无闻的独立开发者还是行业大师，都纷纷在Kickstarter上建立融资项目。

然而，如果许多项目都达到融资目标，做出成品，那么质量有保证吗？

结果会让消费者抛弃这种融资方法吗？还是发展成一种可行的商业模式？

Godus(from pocketgamer)

付费游戏还有未来吗？

免费模式已经成为一大商业模式，越来越多游戏以这种模式发布。

许多发行商如Gameloft和EA仍然在试验免费模式，并获得不同程度的成功，但这就意味着他们和其他游戏业巨头开始抛弃付费模式了吗？

消费者已经不再热衷新设备了吗？手机设备的数量似乎只会继续增加，并且随之而来的新功能越来越多。人们可能会满足于现有的设备，而不是不断地换成新设备。

应用的数量也将持续增加，但人们还会乐意下载吗？2013年会不会开始呈现稳定趋势？（本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译，拒绝任何不保留版权的转载，如需转载请联系：游戏邦）

Stateside: What are the key issues that will define 2013?

by Carter Dotson

The mobile market is nothing if not volatile.

A year’s time often brings an inordinate amount of change, and while it’s often difficult to predict what may happen, there’s a lot of potential sticking points that could have a big effect on the mobile gaming market in the next 12 months.

Here, then, is my take on what 2013 could mean for mobile developers, complete with the kind of questions everyone working within the industry should ask themselves before embarking on any new ventures.

What will new iOS hardware bring?

Granted, new versions of the iPhone and iPad are guaranteed every year, but what the next generation will bring is always an interesting concern.

Will the iPad stay at its 4:3 resolution? Will the new iPhone, in order to keep up Android phones that will start to boast 1080p displays this year, bump up the resolution again? And when will it release?

What about the next iPad mini? Will it remain a generation behind, or will it catch up in power to the full-sized iPad in some form? Will the iPod touch see a new refresh, or will it have another year off?

Can developers live with underpowered yet current hardware?

While Android developers have always had to keep different hardware power levels in mind, iOS studios are also having to do so in an increasing way.

The A5 generation of hardware may be entering its second year of being in iOS devices, but it remains incredibly widespread.

Not only is it in the still-popular iPhone 4S and iPad 2 – both still being sold by Apple – but it also made its way to the latest iPod touch and into the iPad mini.

Developers will need to keep these devices in mind, treating them as ‘current hardware’ despite their lack of power compared to iPhone 5 and the fourth generation iPad. Alarmingly, reports of high-powered games – such as Modern Combat 4 – starting to suffer on the A5 hardware have already surfaced, however.

What role will Android play in 2013?

Android has long been iOS’s closest competitor – indeed, in terms of userbase, it’s comfortably in the lead – but Google’s platform now seems to be gaining ground on the games front.

While technical support concerns with hundreds of device models continues to scare off many smaller developers, the sheer number of users on Android will continue to entice many to release on the platform as well. Success stories exist, but so do failures.

Will it be a viable platform on par with iOS for developers going forward? Will it be worth launching games on Android first? Will hardware like Project Shield reshape the gaming market?

Do indies have any hope of competing with industry giants?

The market is increasingly becoming the domain of well-funded publishers who can afford the marketing to get high up in the charts and stay there – particularly as GREE and DeNA continue their western expansion.

Will indies, who have an increasingly-difficult time getting noticed, be shut out completely at some point?

Thankfully Hundreds by Semi Secret Software – previously mentioned in this column – made its way to the top 10 of not only the iPad charts (where it was featured by Apple as Editor’s Choice in the US) but also on iPhone for a period of time – and at a $2.99 price to boot.

However, that’s an established developer; those starting out may not have as much luck getting noticed.

Will TV gaming take off?

While sitting down at a TV and playing games isn’t exactly “mobile”, it could be the logical next step for the industry.

Ouya, which broke Kickstarter records, is currently making its way into developers’ hands and should hit store shelves soon. Rival device GameStick was also funded in just 30 hours on KickStarter.

While these are all Android devices, don’t forget that Apple could change the game by introducing an App Store to the Apple TV, or by releasing a dedicated television set of some sort.

What impact could Apple policy changes have?

As 2012 proved, Apple continues to have the ability to pull policy changes out of the hat without a moment’s notice.

As such, app promo services in particular will need to be wary of basing their entire businesses around just one strategy or technique, lest their operations be completely undermined overnight.

Also of note is the fact that continued policy changes could drive some developers to focus on Android, which – though increasingly restrained by Google policies – is still the Wild West in comparison.

Is crowdfunding a bubble, or a viable long-term funding method?

2012 may have been the year crowdfunding took off – Kickstarter project after Kickstarter project getting picked up, from small indie projects from those being led by industry luminaries.

Project Godus

However, what will happen if many of these projects reach fruition and are found wanting when it comes to quality?

Will that put consumers off the funding method in the future? Will its standing as a viable business model be undermined?

Do paid games have a future, and are we heading towards a consumer burn out?

Free games have become big business, and more games are releasing with no upfront cost.

While many publishers like Gameloft and EA are still experimenting with free-to-play to various degrees of success, this could be the year where they and other notable forces start to abandon paid games in a huge way?

Will customers burn out? The number of mobile devices feels like it’s only growing, and there’s a lot of new features coming along with them. People could just wind up being happy with what they have, instead of needing to constantly be upgrading to their new devices.

The number of apps is continuously increasing as well, but will people still be willing to download them? Will 2013 be the year where all these upward trends start to level off?(source:pocketgamer)