作者：Joost van Dreunen

又一年过去了，游戏行业再次经历了翻天覆地的变化。Facebook游戏之王Zynga遭受了严重的收购损失，令其后悔不已。手机游戏最终确立了自己作为一大类游戏的地位。谁能料到小小的屏幕能产生这么多乐趣！硬核玩家们看到，许多去年的在线游戏已经式微，或被新一代免费游戏包围。

2013-bubbles(from games)

一到年底，我们就要盘点今年的头条新闻，并预测来年的趋势。

先说Zynga。我们可以肯定地说，它在三月份时以1亿8千万美元的价格收购OMGPOP，在当时看来确实是一笔不错的买卖。这就好像，买了一辆敞篷车放在车库里看着真养眼，直到你意识到自己已经有四个孩子，不能放弃冲浪的爱好，以及每个月的房子按揭。Facebook不再青睐Zynga了，Zynga却认为休闲游戏《Draw Something》开发公司会帮它获得更多玩家、产生更多收益。而事实是，Zynga因为收购OMGPOP而报废了9千5百万美元（游戏邦注：The Next Web指出，平均一天损失48.2万美元）。

今年是手机年。更多人购买了智能手机和平板电脑，更多人购买游戏在这些设备上玩。在美国，手机游戏玩家已经突破1亿，许多人在上班路上都不忘玩一把《Temple Run》。大游戏发行商如EA进军手机市场，发布了许多自己的作品，甚至传统的媒体公司也开始靠手机游戏赚钱。今年的电子游戏颁奖礼上，《行尸走肉》这款改编游戏战胜数款大投入的主机游戏，赢得2012年度游戏大奖。这几年，人们开始注意到手机游戏品质的不断提升。

walking-dead-game(from games)

今年还证明了，与付费游戏相比，免费游戏可以获得更多玩家和更多收益。但我们认为付费模式可能会在2013逆袭。虽说无法超越《魔兽世界》，但凭借优惠和会员政策，在线游戏领域可能会回归到过去的那种收益模式。走投无路之际，付费游戏必定会变得更有创意，同时通过丰富内容、增加福利和优惠，与免费游戏抗争。

什么游戏将在2013年唱主角？儿童游戏。大量儿童游戏\教育游戏，以及改编自书籍、电影和电视节目的游戏。因为孩子们更容易接触到游戏了，特别是在手机平台上，所以许多从事传统玩具和儿童媒体的公司希望靠游戏满足新一代玩家的需求。也就是说，周六早上的卡通节目可能将被游戏取代。

最后，泡泡射击游戏异军突起，即将问鼎社交游戏。经典的拼字和益智游戏也将在新一年强势回归。市场上充斥着各种模拟和农场类游戏。Zynga发行了太多模拟类游戏，已经无法取悦喜欢尝鲜求新的玩家。所以，更快更活泼泡泡射击游戏和三个匹配消除游戏就热门开来了。如《宝石迷阵》等流行游戏为了吸引新玩家，也进行了自我改造。拼字和益智游戏借助数字和手机渠道，重新点燃玩家的热情。大概只有模拟游戏加泡泡射击的混搭才能拯救挣扎中的农场类游戏。毕竟，用加农炮发射农场奶牛应该很有趣吧？（本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译，拒绝任何不保留版权的转载，如需转载请联系：游戏邦）

Predictions 2013: The next big thing in gaming will surprise you

by Joost van Dreunen

Another year has come and gone, and once again the games industry has seen seismic shifts in its audience and its business. Zynga, crown prince of Facebook games, suffered serious buyer’s remorse. And mobile games finally established itself as a major category. Who knew you could have that much fun on a tiny screen! For hardcore gamers, many online games of yesteryear have died off or found themselves surrounded by an entire new generation of free-to-play titles.

As always at the year’s end, it’s time to gather round and look at the big news we saw and the trends that we see coming. Spoiler: Hope you like bubble shooters.

Oh, Zynga. We’re sure that the $180 million acquisition of OMGPOP in March looked good at the time. The same way a convertible looks good in the garage until you realize you’ve got four kids, a surfboarding hobby and a mortgage. Facebook unfriended Zynga, who thought that the maker of casual games like Draw Something would add heft and users to its portfolio. Instead, Zynga found itself writing off up to $95 million of OMGPOP’s purchase (losing, as The Next Web pointed out, $482,000 a day). Dislike.

This year was the year of mobile. More of us bought smartphones and tablets and more of us bought games to play on those devices. With over 100 million mobile gamers in the US, a larger number of people than ever are Temple Running their way to work. Big-ticket game publishers like EA released many of their titles on mobile, and even traditional media companies cashed in on the fun. At the Video Game Awards this year, it was “The Walking Dead”-a licensed game set in the realm of the AMC show-that beat out several high-budget console games to win Game of the Year 2012. Mobile gaming has increased the quality of content at your fingertips over the past year, and people are taking notice.

This year also proved that free-to-play games can gain more users and more revenues than pay-to-play. But we think 2013 is going to see a return of the subscription model. Not to say that they will look exactly like World of Warcraft, but with discounts and memberships the online games arena may swing back to a revenue stream reminiscent of times past. With their collective back against the wall, subscription games will get creative and come up with new ways to compete with the influx of free-to-play games through improved content, benefits, and discounts.

What does 2013 have in store? Kids games. Lots and lots of kids games. Educational games, games based on books and movies and TV shows. As it becomes easier for children to access games, especially on mobile platforms, we’re going to see many companies in the traditional toys and children’s media spaces looking to games to reach a screen-hungry audience. Saturday morning cartoons are giving way to Saturday morning games.

Finally, bubble shooters are bouncing and popping their way to the top of social games. The new year is also bringing a return to classic word and puzzle games. The market is saturated with every iteration of sim and Ville that can be accommodated. As Zynga flooded the market with sim games, players grew tired of this genre and sought out something different. Quicker, more active games like bubble shooters and match-three games have flourished, as popular games like Bejeweled have reinvented themselves for the new gamer. Word and puzzle games have gone viral with digital and mobile versions of Scrabble, Boggle, and Tetris, allowing players to enjoy these classic games with friends all over the world. Perhaps a simulation-bubble shooter mash-up can save the struggling ‘Villes. After all, who wouldn’t want to launch a FarmVille cow out of a cannon?（source:blog.games)