作者：Alistair Doulin

好吧，既然世界末日没有降临，那么我们又可以继续预言2013年的游戏行业发展趋势了。下面就是我的预言。

虚拟现实技术

我一直是VR（虚拟现实）技术的忠实拥护者，也因此对其硬件迟迟不能普及感到失望。但是，随着Oculus Rift头戴装置于2012年问世，一切都改变了。在FPS游戏之父John Carmack的支持下，这款新产品终于引起了业界的重视。VR的研发似乎迎来转折点（多亏了智能手机市场的繁荣），借助这项技术，廉价的VR头戴装置将得以大量生产。2013年，开发商将为消费级VR设备做准备，我想他们投入准备的时间和研究应该不会少。玩家将不再透过小小的窗口（24-27″)窥视游戏世界，而是全身心地沉浸其中。现在对3D立体眼镜的迷恋是一回事，但浸入式3D头戴装置将导致游戏发生新的革命。虽然目前仅有几款游戏支持Oculus Rift，但我预言到2013年底，将会有上百款游戏加入VR俱乐部。

oculus-rift-kickstarter(from engadget.com)

手机/平板电脑

我预言2013年会有许多开发者（特别是独立游戏开发者）在手机/平板电脑市场上获得成功。这也是我个人在2013年的前进方向。虽然有些人在2011年至2012年期间转向社交/Facebook游戏，但我认为有些人会在2013年回归手机/平板领域。随着微软推出自己的平板产品，我认为这个市场将在2013年显著成长。许多人对Facebook游戏抱有的“快速发财”的热情已经慢慢消退，我认识的许多独立游戏开发者开始返回手机平台，而不是固守着社交/Facebook游戏不放。因为许多开发者会在过去的经历中吸取教训、认识到手机/平板的优势（触屏界面、总是在线），所以这个市场将更加成熟。

真正的社交游戏

Zynga停运大量游戏，我认为这是对真正社交游戏的呼唤。Facebook和其他社交网络公司给游戏开发者提供了绝佳的机会，因为这些平台将玩家与好友仍至全世界的人连接起来。游戏开发者们将不再滥用这些连接，而是利用它创造更有意义的沉浸感。如《LetterPress》等游戏表明，在Facebook上，用户之间的联系是很容易形成的，而不是让用户打扰好友给自己免费的游戏道具。许多老一辈玩家从小就玩街机或拖着大电脑两头跑，只是为了能跟好友一起玩。我希望社交游戏能提供这种相同的体验，而不是我们现在看到的廉价的“社交”行为。无论你喜不喜欢，许多开发者就是向“钱”看的；Zynga等公司现在陷入困境了，这个事实表明如果社交游戏要获得成功，就不能只是让玩家之间产生肤浅的社交联系。

苹果将无新产品问世

我认为苹果在2013年将不会推出任何突破性的新产品。他们将继续改进现有的产品，但是，我看到他们的革新步伐在不断加快。对许多骨灰级苹果粉丝来说，iPhone 5是令人失望的。2013将是苹果真正的转折点，因为他们将在没有乔布斯的领导下开拓新领域。我很肯定，他们的2012年计划是早已准备好的，但像iPad Mini这种决定表明，新的计划正在酝酿。我希望看到像iPad一样具有革命意义的新产品，但我认为在2013年还看不到。大约再过一两年，苹果就会进入VR市场，但我认为在迈出重大一步以前，他们会先看看Oculus Rift的市场反映。

新一代游戏机

XBox和Playstation似乎将于2013年底发布。我预言这将是我们能看到的最后一代“纯游戏机”。随着手机、平板和PC的融合汇聚，我认为游戏机这个概念将消失是有可能的。现在的游戏机开发周期差不多是10年，而不是5年，可以认为下一代游戏机诞生也需要相当长的时间。以平板/手机目前的革新速度，开发与下一代游戏机一样强大的移动设备只需要几年时间。这两者唯一的区别就是，输入/输出机制。微软已经证明，他们的Surface可以与XBox360的控制器媲美。我认为这个趋势仍将持续。

到2013年中，我预言一件或可能几件设备会用于增强我们的大部分PC功能。这件设备将与我们使用的输出设备相连接，以增加我们的体验。在这个过程中，我们将使用设备本身（这种设备大约与手机或平板的大小相当，取决于你的偏好）。在工作时，计算设备将与鼠标、键盘和显示器（一台或多台）无线连接。在玩游戏和看电影时，它将与大电视或投影仪无线连接。

你的2013年预言是什么？你同意我的观点吗？你对2013年有什么期待？（本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译，拒绝任何不保留版权的转载，如需转载请联系：游戏邦）

Video Game Industry Predictions 2013

by Alistair Doulin

Well, the world didn’t end (of course) so it’s time to look to the next twelve months and predict what we might see in 2013. Below are my predictions for the video game industry in 2013.

Virtual Reality

I’ve long been a fan of VR and have been disappointed with the consumer level hardware up to this point. That all changed in 2012 with the announcement of the Oculus Rift. With the backing of John Carmack, it was hard for the industry to ignore this new product. It looks like VR has finally turned a corner and (thanks to the booming smart phone market) the technology is available allowing a cheap (almost) consumer grade VR headset to be mass produced. Developers will have most of 2013 to prepare for the consumer grade headset and I see a lot of time and research going into these preparations. Rather than gamers peering through a small (24-70″) window into our worlds, they can now be completely immersed in them. The current fascination with (stereoscopic only) 3D  is one thing, but true immersive head-tracked 3D will take our games to the next level. While there are only a handful of games that support the Oculus Rift at this stage, by the end of 2013 I predict this to be in the hundreds.

Mobile/Tablet

I predict a large number of people (particularly indie’s) will make it big on mobile in 2013. This is still the direction I plan to head in 2013. While some people have moved toward social/Facebook gaming in 2011-2012 I see some of them returning to mobile/tablet gaming in 2013. With Microsoft entering the tablet market (and with a better mobile offering) I see this market growing substantially in 2013. The “get rich quick” attitude many had towards Facebook games has died off a little and I’m seeing a number of indie developers I know pivoting back to mobile rather than pure Facebook/social. I see the mobile/tablet market maturing in 2013 as many developers learn from their mistakes in the past and embrace the benefits of the platform (touch interface, always connected, etc).

Real Social Games

With Zynga shutting down a bunch of their games, I see the need for truly social games. Facebook and other social networks give game developers amazing opportunity for connecting gamers to their friends and others around the world. Rather than abusing these connections I see a switch to meaningful engagement. Games like LetterPress show the simplicity of Facebook to connect users rather than allowing users to bug their friends into getting them in-game items for free. True social games will take this simple connection and use it to enrich their game design. Many older gamers grew up playing together in arcades or lugging their giant computers to each others houses for a chance to play together. I’d like to see this same experience enabled by social games rather than the cheap “social” behavior we see currently. Like it or not, many developers go where the money is and the fact Zynga and the like are now falling on hard times shows the need for more than a superficial social connection if these types of games are to succeed.

No New Apple Product

I don’t see Apple releasing any significantly new products in 2013. They will continue to evolve their existing products, however I see the pace of of their evolution picking up. The iPhone 5 was a disappointment to many of the die-hard Apple fans I know. 2013 will be a real turning point for Apple as they forge new territory without Jobs at the helm. I’m sure much of 2012 had already been planned out but decisions like the iPad Mini show a new course is being set. I’d love to see a new product as innovative as the iPad, but I don’t see that occurring in 2013. Perhaps in a year or two we might see Apple move into the VR market, but I think they will wait and see the response to the Oculus Rift before making a large move like that.

Last Generation of Consoles

It’s looking like the next XBox and Playstation will be released in late 2013. I predict this will be the final “pure console” generation we see. As mobile, tablet and PC converge I think it’s logical that the concept of the console will disappear. With the current console cycle being closer to 10 years than 5, we can expect the next generation to be at least as long. With the current speed of innovation in the tablet/mobile sector, it will only be a matter of years before a portable device is as powerful as the next generation of consoles. The only difference then is the input/output mechanisms. Microsoft has already shown their Surface is compatible with a XBox360 controller and I see this trend continuing.

In the mid-term future, I forsee one, or maybe a couple, of devices powering most of our personal computing. This device will connect to the output device of our choosing to power our experience. On the road we will use the device itself (which will be around the size of a phone and/or tablet, depending on your preference). At work the computing device wirelessly connects to your mouse, keyboard and monitor(s). Playing games and watching movies it will wirelessly connect to a large TV or projector.

Summary

What are your predictions for 2013? Do you agree or disagree with any of my points? What would you love to see in 2013?(source:gamasutra)