作者：Steve Peterson

鉴于不少大型公司（游戏邦注：比如苹果、谷歌、亚马逊、三星以及微软）通过发行多种多样的硬件与软件，争夺市场份额，在今年假日期间，平板电脑领域将会掀起一股新战役。作为平板设备最大的应用类别，游戏可谓是该场战争中的关键元素。平板电脑有望成为下一代游戏主机设备吗？哪类平板电脑会成为今年圣诞节的畅销款？平板游戏开发商所面临最大的挑战与商机又会是什么？

为此，Gameindustry International采访了大量游戏开发商、分析师与游戏行业的专业人士，他们纷纷阐述了各自对这一快速发展的游戏市场的未来畅想。

平板电脑有望成为下一代游戏主机吗？

TechSavvy Global首席执行官Scott Steinberg

也许吧。可能距离平板电脑完全独霸游戏市场还有一段时间。目前，平板电脑十分盛行；3-4年后，它们会在游戏生态系统发挥重要作用。更重要的是，如果你仔细观察这一代伴随平板电脑成长的儿童，你会发现，他们的假日心愿单上明显写着智能手机与平板电脑。可以试想下，8-10年后，对于一整代完全从主机平台转移到该平台体验电子游戏的儿童，这又意味着什么。

Supercell北美总经理Greg Harper

我们认为，作为游戏行业的新兴平台，将平板电脑与以往平台进行比较确实很不公平。在我们看来，平板电脑是首个真正拥有大量用户的平台，核心与休闲玩家均在此体验游戏。我们相信，下一代年轻玩家肯定会诞生在该平台上。

PlayFirst首席执行官兼总裁Marco DeMiroz

我想，平板电脑最终会取代一部分主机，一定程度上，它将作为取代远程控制与主机的输入设备与CPU/GUP平台，直接与电视监视器取得互动，这种设备会更具生活化，即数字化家庭中的移动/便捷式体验。借此，平板电脑还可以扩展主机用户，毫无缝隙地把游戏体验从主机平台转移到平板设备，从而增加游戏的便捷性，吸引更多用户。

Rumble Entertainment首席执行官Greg Richardson

我们认为，近些年来，平板电脑将不会取代主机设备。但那些全身心投入在主机平台的玩家无疑会在平板游戏上注入更多时间与费用。

Appy Entertainment首席执行官Chris Uim

我认为平板电脑无法取代下一代主机设备，但他们会中抽走大量潜在玩家。平板电脑有望吸引大批休闲与半休闲玩家，因为它们具有便捷性，多项娱乐功能，并能提供大量免费或低价游戏。最重要的是，你可以在平板电脑上边体验游戏边享受电视节目。如往常一样，核心玩家将会支持这种新型主机设备，但即使如此，他们不会在此投入与主机游戏相同的时间或费用，因为平板领域更具竞争性。

Hibernum Creations首席品牌官Louis-Rene Auclair

平板电脑不一定会直接取代主机设备，但它必然会在成为一个重要的游戏平台。而且有趣的是，主流主机设备会在其游戏生态系统中融入平板电脑（游戏邦注：至少微软会这样做），因此，它不仅可以提供强大的独立游戏体验，而且可以作为主机平台的补充。如果平板电脑支持与宽屏电视的完美结合，那用户便能在家庭娱乐系统上享受游戏体验。

EEDAR分析师Jesse Divnich

平板电脑最终会成为一种主要游戏设备，但这尚需一段时间。我们能够预见，在2016-2018期间，我们有望实现这一目标。但该设备中必须包含大量运动部件。重要的是，它还需要一个标准化外围控制器，用于获取大量作为用户输入默认标准的数据。此外，它还能紧密地将视频传输到任何电视设备，不断向主要游戏主机设备演变。

ngmoco营销副总裁Doug Scott

如果‘主机’意味着以高品质画面快速吸引玩家沉浸到游戏进程，那么平板电脑无疑会成为下一代主机设备。如果它意味着‘长时对话游戏’，那么平板电脑将毫无希望；平板电脑代表了用户玩法的演变结果。我相信，平板电脑更加适合现代生活模式，即以更小规模、更频繁且更加灵活的时间组块体验全部游戏进程。

AppAbove Games的Aaron Isaksen

我认为，平板电脑是否会取代下一代主机设备的答案取决于游戏与体验类型。不少游戏题材十分适合平板电脑，尤其是休闲、益智与冒险游戏，还有一些平台、桌面与卡牌游戏也适合平板电脑……这些游戏并不适合电视平台。与此相反，FPS游戏则需要更大屏幕与控制器。在我们生活的世界里，没有哪台设备适合所有游戏，也没有哪类游戏适合所有平台。

我们何时能够见到第一款突破性的热门平板游戏？它又会是哪类游戏？

EEDAR分析师Jesse Divnich

对于平板游戏市场，我认为，任何可以创下1亿多美元的游戏均属于真正热作——但这种现象还未出现。平板游戏市场已日渐成熟，我相信，接下来的18个月，我们将有望目睹到某款突破性的平板游戏在其生命周期内创下超过1亿美元的收益。

ngmoco营销副总裁Doug Scott

我认为会是2013年初，但我不方便透露具体游戏类型。老实讲，你应研究类似《无尽之剑》这种针对平板设备设计的具备高品质画面与直观玩法的游戏，而且它为‘传统玩家’与更大范围玩家开启了平板游戏的大门。由于开发商拥有相同的游戏设计机会，以及平板设备不断扩展的能力范围，该领域会出现更多突破性时刻。

Supercell北美总经理Greg Harper

作为首款针对平板电脑设计的游戏，我们相信《Clash of Clan》连续几周在77个国家榜单上位列第一的成绩，证明了它会从成为首款突破性的平板游戏。

Rumble Entertainment首席执行官Greg Richardson

我认为，目前不少可以在平板电脑运行的游戏均会在其生命周期内，在此创下1亿多美元的收益，它们无疑会利用多种手段成为该平台的热作。也就是说，还没有人能够创造出完全影响平板电脑效应的游戏体验。我们认为，将会有某款游戏利用平板电脑的优质画面，制作出精美的3D视觉效果，从而影响同步多人玩家体验，并以免费模式创造出与玩家长久的互动性。

Hibernum Creations首席品牌官Louis-Rene Auclair

谁知道具体答案，但许多开发商仍在不断尝试，因此我们将会在2013年见证到结果。我想，该热作可能是另一款《愤怒的小鸟》，但它也可能是一款促使平板电脑成为核心玩家眼中正当的游戏主机平台的核心游戏（相对于单独休闲模式）。但你会发现独霸平板游戏市场的将会是另一种游戏题材。我并不惊讶于出色的RTS或RPG游戏出现在2013年上半年，而且与更多核心玩家形成强烈的互动模式。

PlayFirst首席执行官兼总裁Marco DeMiroz

由于当前平板游戏只有小规模的安装量，并没有太多新兴游戏开发商单独针对平板电脑制作游戏。这种现象将会在2年后发生转变。如果让我猜测，我可以想象，平板领域的热作将会改造于某款顶级主机游戏，借此传递丰富多彩且独特的平板游戏体验。

平板电脑会在节假日礼物领域同主机设备展开竞争吗？

Funkitron总裁Dave Walls

完全有可能。尤其在今年假期，除了Wii U，其它公司并未推出更多新型的主机设备。我认为，关于孩子的礼物，父母会在Wii U与iPad Mini之间做出选择。

AppAbove Games的Aaron Isaksen

当然了……我认为，由于平板电脑具备更多用途，比如上网、发邮件、学习、阅读、听音乐，因此它更值得购买。我有个朋友正考虑为他3岁孩子购买一台平板电脑，但我还未听过有哪些父母准备为其3岁孩子购买一台PS3或Xbox 360。

Bolt Creative联合创始人Dave Castelnuove

大部分家庭花费在游戏与娱乐项目上的资金十分有限，从这方面看，平板电脑无疑会对主机设备构成威胁。

Rumble Entertainment首席执行官Greg Richardson

这是必然结果。虽然，总体上看，平板电脑的价格高于主机设备，但这种价格会发生快速转变。更重要的是，主机游戏拒绝提前付费，而平板电脑的实用性与移动性显然比主机设备略胜一筹。人们正在改变自己购买内容的方式，平板电脑已反映出其使用方式优于专用主机。

TechSavvy Global首席执行官Scott Steinberg

“百分之百有可能。这是个主要问题。预计，今年消费者在高科技礼物上的平均消费为260美元左右，因此你可以思考下这种现象的含义。今年假期主打价值礼物。随着大众越发意识到平板电脑的多种功能，不少家庭会选择这种全家都能使用的设备。这种不稳定情况会随着时间发生转变，但不会在主机设备方面。”

Hibernum Creations首席品牌官Louis-Rene Auclair

当然，平板电脑具有多种功能，人人都希望拥有一台这样的设备。而且，索尼与微软公司并未推出新型的主机设备，因此有关主机设备的讨论将会终结在Wii U上。平板电脑有望战胜其它竞争对手，成为今年假期的最想要礼物。

EEDAR分析师Jesse Divnich

我们预计，在今年的假日期间，平板电脑的需求量将再次远超主机设备。

哪类平板电脑会成为今年假期最热门款？哪类又会是2013年的最畅销款？7寸平板电脑会赶超10寸平板电脑，成为最热门设备吗？

EEDAR分析师Jesse Divnich

我们预计，三星、苹果与亚马逊会再次引领平板电脑销量。今年，亚马逊的销量会上升到一个新高度。到假期末尾，其Kindle会在三星与苹果市场获取可观的成绩。

Bolt Creative联合创始人Dave Castelnuovo

我觉得，iPad Mini会因其微小尺寸而十分热门。我预计，到2013年，苹果首代iPad Mini会降价至100美元，届时将与那代的Kindle形成直接竞争形势。

Funkitron总裁Dave Walls

从游戏的角度看，我认为iPad Mini具备出色性能，因为已有大量游戏在该设备上运行。苹果在此方面十分明智。就7寸与10寸方面，我认为，7寸平板电脑会发展为便捷式设备，而10寸平板电脑将会成为娱乐放松设备。

ngmoco营销副总裁Doug Scott

我相信，这两种设备将会越发盛行，并获得大量的安装量。它们在优势方面存在本质上的重要差异。7寸平板电脑适合夹克口袋，更具方便使用性。10寸平板电脑因其更大屏幕与更高清分辨率可以传递更加优质的娱乐体验。在某些方面，它们十分精良，因为它们均能为用户提供出色的体验。

Appy Entertainment首席执行官Chris Ulm

我认为，如果苹果能不断改进，满足用户的所有需求，iPad Mini将会成为该市场的领导者。本文写于11月中旬，因此还有两周的等待时间。总之，我认为iPad Mini最终会拥有最高销售量，紧随其后的是iPad 10。

游戏开发会随着平板电脑的快速发展发生怎样的改变？

PlayHaven产品与管理副总裁John Joseph

其中一种重要变化是市场分裂现象的‘回归’，即所有硬件发生变化，应用环境快速发展。

Appy Entertainment首席执行官Chris Ulm

我们十分高兴，自己可以制作出更大型且更具吸引力的游戏，当然需投入昂贵的开发成本。玩家会投入更长的体验时间，且更沉浸在游戏进程中，而且我们还可以创造出更易上手但更具深度的中核游戏。

Hibernum Creations首席品牌官Louis-Rene Auclair

该市场已抵达关键用户基础，为此，我们应专门开发平板游戏。也就是说，移动手机的热门度减缓了这一进程，因为它们正积极刺激开发者制作‘普遍应用’。目前，针对付费游戏收取玩家高昂费用无疑是个不错的想法。

Supercell北美总经理Greg Harper

由于目前市场上已售出1亿多台的iPad，因此它与平板电脑市场取得的巨大规模足以证明，开发者将其作为主要目标平台的正确性。为了在平板电脑上获得成功，我们相信，你必须从始至终致力于平板电脑。永不妥协。也就是说，你不能在开发中途停下，询问某个特殊性能如何发挥作用，或者转移到手机平台。你必须从一而终。

ngmoco营销副总裁Doug Scott

我们应记住，自己是针对智能手机与平板电脑制作游戏，这显然意味着，我们应意识到它们的图像分辨率与巨大处理能力。游戏开发的最重要变化是，用户与游戏互动方式的完全转变。在此，我并非指代HUD或屏幕外观（虽然这些方面也具有一定影响力），而是谈论用户如何在更加精致与直观的设备上操作游戏。Wii游戏机同主机设备的互动方式，实则是平板电脑同移动设备的互动方式。届时，平板电脑将会通过更加精良直观的设计模式，吸引更大规模的用户。

谁会是明年平板电脑市场的赢家，谁又会是失败者？

Hibernum Creations首席品牌官Louis-Rene Auclair

我认为，不会有确切的失败者。如果你提供的是优秀产品与出色内容，那么你会在明年继续强劲发展。然而，明年的巨头不会发生改变，我仍旧相信，苹果会继续独霸单位与内容销售方面。

Chartboost业务开发总监Pepe Agell

我们发现，iPad这类平板电脑已成为移动领域的主要游戏设备。网络数据显示，iPad用户每天体验游戏的时长比iPhone用户多出10%。同时，iPad游戏的粘性高于其它平板设备。比如，iPad用户每天的游戏时间比Nexus 7用户多出20%。在我们看来，这意味着，iPad Mini会在游戏市场上成功打败其它平板设备（游戏邦注：比如，Kindle Fire与Nexus 7）。

Bolt Creative联合创始人Dave Castelnuovo

苹果本身便意味着最大赢家。只是，我没有看到Android如推出手机般，进军平板电脑市场。

Supercell北美总经理Greg Harper

苹果显然会成为平板电脑领域的赢家。其它领域的情况则较难估摸，但我仍不知道它们的竞争事态。在与其它公司及平板电脑对比时，我认为，我们不仅要以销售数据为主，而且还应注意数据与应用使用水平。其中，最令人信服的数据当数，苹果在iPad Mini发布当天指出，iPad在所有平板电脑流量上占据91%的比重。这是该设备取得进展的关键数据。

EEDAR分析师Jesse Divnich

在易用性、功能与应用支持方面，苹果是目前市场上的领先者。当然，苹果也会面临失败的境地，我们怀疑，明年苹果会在基础设备方面输给Android。同比其它设备，苹果设备再也无法提供完全不同的体验模式。苹果的服务项目仍会占据领先地位，但设备本身却不具有此优势。

Appy Entertainment首席执行官Chris Ulm

我想，目前这种竞赛模式已成定局：iOS与Android将会成为赢家。苹果、亚马逊、三星与谷歌将会出售大量平板电脑。诺基亚、华硕、惠普、戴尔、微软仍处于艰难时期。早期迹象显示，Surface在销售方面表现一般，我们期望Windows 8会演变为具有可行性的第三个生态系统。我猜想，RIM的新型黑莓10提供的服务项目将难以获得关注。

平板电脑在成为主要游戏平台后将面临哪些挑战？

PlayHaven产品与管理副总裁John Joseph

我认为，其中一大挑战是开发成本与获利方面。通常，平板电脑的更大屏幕意味着人们更能看清屏幕内容。这也暗示着，他们更期待高品质的游戏画面。问题是，对开发商而言，高品质的画面不一定等同于获取更多收益（游戏邦注：无论是从应用内置购买，还是游戏下载方面）。最终，平板游戏的开发成本逐渐提升，却无法获得相应的收益。

Hibernum Creations首席品牌官Louis-Rene Auclair

触屏界面十分适合多种游戏体验，但也限制了一些游戏类型。这要追溯到下一款平板热作的问题上。由于控制数量有限，开发商更难以以此制作核心游戏。他们制作出的一组控制组件实则需要更加先进的游戏机制，而这无疑会让他们在平板领域大获成功。

App Above Games的Aaron Isaksen

缺少实体按钮确实限制了某些游戏类型。我想，这是阻碍平板电脑完全独霸游戏领域的最大问题……如果没有一个双手控制器，那你无法体验具有快速进程的FPS游戏。如果没有实体按键，你将难以体验2D平台游戏。当然，你可以设计出仅针对触屏界面的这两种游戏，但在我看来，玩家无法在此获得出色体验。

Bolt Creative联合创始人Dave Castelnuovo

平板电脑已经成为主要游戏平台。目前iPad的售量已达到1亿多台。分析师预计，如果苹果在假日期间再次售出3000万台iPad，它将仅次于任天堂DS（1.52亿销量）与PS2（1.53亿销量），排名第三。因此，iPad不仅是主要游戏平台，而且截至2013年第一季度，它将达到史上最高售量（如果不把iPhone计算在内）。现在，如果‘主要游戏平台’意味着动视与EA的关注重点，我认为，平板电脑面临的挑战是让高管针对iPad制作AAA游戏。我欣赏Square以付费游戏作为试验对象，但实际上，游戏总会缺乏优秀品质。

Supercell北美总经理Greg Harper

苹果生态系统外的分裂市场具有一定风险。如果市场上存在大量不同设备，那么开发商将难以制作出支持所有设备的游戏。

Appy Entertainment首席执行官Chris Ulm

重点是，平板电脑应处理好同客厅及其它便携设备的整合。所有平台拥有者应制作出更加出色的社交游戏，比如Game Center支持开发商创造出全新体验模式。为了战胜主机设备，平板电脑将不得不增加画面品质，同时保持10小时的电池寿命。

平板游戏开发商需面临最大的挑战与商机又是什么？

Appy Entertainment首席执行官Chris Ulm

最大的挑战是降低游戏开发风险。在开发成本上涨的情形下，游戏市场充斥着大量游戏，用户期望免费获得高品质软件。许多游戏开发者都面临亏本境地。他们需在生态系统中制作出创意服务，以此获利，推广作品。苹果、谷歌及亚马逊应着眼于如何利用各自平台提高开发商的收益，这样，开发商才会再次投资制作高品质游戏。iAd是该方向的第一步，但我们需要一个突破性的服务项目，能够推出移动广告，同时赋予用户重视的奖励机制，以此最大型的娱乐软件——“网络”。

PlayHaven产品与管理副总裁John Joseph

我认为，平板游戏开发商可以抓住的最大商机是获取不同用户群，即更多关注中核与硬核玩家。那些会在平板电脑上体验游戏的新用户群，可能是那些5年前在Playstation 3体验游戏的玩家，但他们再也没时间体验这类游戏，因此渴望高品质的游戏体验。

Bolt Creative联合创始人Dave Castelnuovo

开发商难以在Android平台上获取可观收益，但iPad领域却存在不少商机。目前，他们面临的最大挑战是集中精力，并坚持不懈。不要观察他人从事的项目。你应坚持自己的愿景，然后推出游戏。如果它并未获得过多关注，你应分析存在的错误，从中获得启发。而后借此制作另一款游戏，并不断重复这种方法。

TechSavvy Global首席执行官Scott Steinberg

我认为，最大的商机是传送出高品质的游戏体验，但另一方面，这也是开发商面临的最大挑战。这不再是走进只有十几个选择的商店；而是有数十万个选项的App Store，而且它们均在需求范围内，其中有99.9%的游戏不会立马获得关注。我们多次听说针对针对所有移动系统的高品质游戏，其中包括智能手机与平板电脑，即使它们属于最棒类型，或者可能会带来创新体验，但开发商仍无法借此收回成本。要么他们为了与市场竞争，提供免费模式，因此似乎无法从业务模式收回成本，要么由于没有列居App Store榜单上的显著位置，因此用户无法发现这类作品。

Funkitron总裁Dave Walls

开发商面临的最大挑战是处理所有新型设备。制作出针对所有设备的游戏，而且利用它获取可观收益实则具有一定难度。但与此同时，这也是他们可以抓住的最大商机，由于平板市场的不断发展，将有更多设备进入玩家手中，而且他们可以在这些设备上体验你的游戏。

PlayFirst首席执行官兼总裁Marco DeMiroz

我认为，目前游戏开发商只着眼于移动电脑会具有一定的局限性。我们难以忽视智能手机创下的巨大下载量，考虑到免费模式是主要盈利模式，因此，你应转变大量游戏类型。这需要2-3年的时间。然而，目前平板电脑上游戏的安装量只是全球智能手机上的一小部分。

Supercell北美总经理Greg Harper

我们坚信，平板电脑会成为最终游戏平台，以及首款真正聚集大量用户的设备。开发商能够抓住的商机仍十分宽广，而且有望实现。明年，我们将会见识到平板电脑领域的两大主流趋势——更多针对核心玩家的游戏，以及更加深入的社交游戏体验。由于大量开发商不断涌入平板与移动领域，我们期望，游戏品质会在2013年上升到一个新台阶，而这也会提升开发商制作高品质游戏的门槛。用户会不断消化这些新型精致的体验模式，而后寻求更多作品。也许，我们面临的最大挑战是不断满足用户的需求。

ngmoco营销副总裁Doug Scott

如果某个开发商能够深入了解玩家的行为与思想，而后转化为适合触屏界面的直观模式，便能获得大笔收益。如果开发商在界面方面落伍，只在老式平台上发行游戏，那么这与原先电视节目中只有广播式的画面内容并无差异。（本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译，拒绝任何不保留版权的转载，如需转载请联系：游戏邦）

Tablet Wars and The Future of a Mass Market Games Platform

by Steve Peterson

Supercell, ngmoco, Bolt, Playfirst, Rumble and more explore the future of the fast-growing tablet market

The great tablet war has reached a new height this holiday season, as some of the largest companies – Apple, Google, Amazon, Samsung, and Microsoft – battle for market share with a dizzying array of hardware and software. Games are a key element of this battle, being the single largest category of apps on tablets. Are tablets going to be the next game console? Which tablet will be the hottest this Christmas? And what’s the biggest challenge and the biggest opportunity for tablet game developers?

GamesIndustry International put these questions and more to a wide range of game developers, analysts and other industry professionals to get a sense of what is happening in this fast-growing market.

Will tablets be the next console generation?

“Yes and no. We may yet be a generation or two away from where tablets are completely dominant. Tablets are growing by leaps and bounds in popularity; three to four years hence they are going to have a very significant role in the gaming ecosystem. More importantly, if you look at the generation that’s growing up with tablets today you see how smartphones and tablets are topping kids’ holiday wish lists. Think about what that means 8 to 10 years hence for an entire generation who’s grown up with their very definition of video games completely and fundamentally altered from those who grew up with consoles.” – Scott Steinberg, CEO, TechSavvy Global

“We believe tablets are a first for the games industry, something it’s never quite seen before, so it’s not really fair to compare them to anything from the past. In our view, tablets are the first true mass market games platform with both core and casual gamers well represented. The next generation of young gamers is definitely being raised on tablets.” – Greg Harper, general manager, Supercell North America

“Tablets will eventually displace a certain portion of the console user base, partially, I think, acting as a combined input device & CPU/GPU platform to replace remote controls and consoles to directly interact with the TV monitor, thus making it a lot more lifestyle-oriented – a mobile/portable experience inside the digital home and beyond. Tablets could also expand console usage by pairing with it to extend the game experience from console to tablets seamlessly, thus making games more portable to attract a wider audience.” – PlayFirst CEO and president Marco DeMiroz

“The short answer is we don’t believe they will replace consoles in the near future. But there is no doubt that gamers who have historically dedicated close to 100 percent of their time and gaming budget to consoles will be spending an ever increasing amount of money and time playing games on tablets.” – Greg Richardson, CEO of Rumble Entertainment

“I don’t think tablets are going to replace the next console generation, but they will siphon a large number of potential players away from next generation consoles. Tablets will have the effect of luring away casual and semi-casual players because they are portable, have multiple entertainment functions and an incredible number of free or low priced games. Most importantly, tablets can be played as a second screen while watching TV in the background. Core gamers, as always, will be the backbone of support for the new consoles but even they will not spend the same amount of time or money on console games as they have done previously because of the competition with tablets.” – Chris Ulm, CEO, Appy Entertainment

“Not necessarily a direct replacement, but it’s certainly going to be a significant game platform. Also there’s interest shown by mainstream consoles to integrate tablets within their gaming ecosystem (at least by Microsoft), which shows that it will not only offer a strong stand alone gaming experience, but also a complementary one for the consoles. Once the tablets will allow for an elegant connection to your flat screen television, it will provide users with the possibility to expand their gaming experience to their home entertainment system.” – Louis-Rene Auclair, chief brand officer at Hibernum Creations

“Tablets will eventually emerge as a primary gaming device, but not anytime soon. We are forecasting that by 2016 through 2018, tablets will begin to emerge as a primary gaming console. There are a lot of moving parts that must be in place for this to occur. Mainly, there needs to be a standardized controller peripheral that receives mass adoption as the default standard for user input. Additionally, being able to seamlessly stream video to any television is another factor that must be in place in order for tablets to begin its emergence as a primary gaming console.” – Jesse Divnich, VP insights and analysis, EEDAR

“If ‘consoles’ means ‘intense immersive gaming experiences with super high-quality graphics’ then yes tablets will be the next console generation. If ‘consoles’ means ‘long single-session ‘appointment’ gaming,’ then no; tablets represent an evolution of how people play games. I believe tablets are a better fit with today’s modern lifestyle where total engagement with games is at an all-time high, and usage patterns are broken into smaller, more frequent and more flexible chunks of time.” – Doug Scott, VP marketing and revenue, ngmoco

“I think this depends on the type of game and type of experience. There are genres of games that play very well on tablets, especially casual games, puzzle and adventure games, some kinds of platformers, board games, and card games… these games don’t play very well on a couch in front of a TV. But the opposite is true for FPS games, where having a large screen and controller really matters. We have a world where not one device fits all, and not one type of game fits all.” – Aaron Isaksen, AppAbove Games

When will we see the first breakout tablet game hit? And what will it be?

“For the tablet market, I would classify any game that generates over $100 million as a true break out hit – one that hasn’t occurred quite yet. The market is ripe and I believe in the next 18 months, we’ll see a breakout tablet game that over its lifetime will generate over $100m in revenue.” – Jesse Divnich, VP insights and analysis, EEDAR

“Early 2013 but if I told you what it was, I’d be giving it away. Seriously though, you have to look at games like Infinity Blade as the first watershed moment where a title with surprisingly great graphics and intuitive gameplay designed for the tablet interface opened up tablet gaming to ‘traditional gamers’ and a broader audience at the same time. There are more breakout moments to come as developers embrace the game design opportunities and ever-expanding power of these devices.” – Doug Scott, VP marketing and revenue, ngmoco

“As one of the first games designed from the ground up for tablets, we certainly believe Clash of Clans’ number one chart position in 77 countries for multiple weeks on end makes a pretty strong case for why it could be the first breakout hit tablet game.” – Greg Harper, general manager, Supercell North America

“I suspect that there are games available today on tablets that will in their lifetime generate $100 million-plus from tablets, which would certainly qualify as a hit by almost any measure. That said, no one has yet created an experience that fully leverages the power of the tablets. Our view is that will be a game that takes advantage of the graphical horsepower of tablets to produce gorgeous 3D visuals, they will leverage the always on connection to deliver synchronous multiplayer gameplay and they will fully embrace a free-to-play service model to create long term persistence and resonance with players.” – Greg Richardson, CEO of Rumble Entertainment

“Who knows, but many are trying, so we’ll see the results in 2013. At this point, this hit could be another Angry Birds, but it could also be a core game which would make tablets a legitimate game console in the eyes of core gamers (as opposed to solely casual). But you can feel a shift in the genre of games you see dominating the tablet markets. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a great RTS or RPG title come along in the first half of 2013 and create a strong reaction within more core gamers.” – Louis-Rene Auclair, chief brand officer at Hibernum Creations

“Due to the current small installed base of tablets there are not many new game development efforts for tablets alone. This may change in two years. If I were to guess, I’d imagine a tablet mega-hit being one of the top console games redesigned to deliver a very rich and unique tablet experience.” – PlayFirst CEO and president Marco DeMiroz

Do tablets compete against against consoles for holiday gifts?

“Totally. Especially this season where there is not much new out console wise except for the Wii U. I would say that for kids a lot of parents are going to be staring at the iPad Mini and the Wii U and figuring out what to choose.” – Dave Walls, president of Funkitron

“Certainly… and I think tablets are a much easier buy since they have so many more uses: web, email, learning, reading, productivity, music. I have friends considering buying their 3 year old a tablet, but I don’t hear many parents thinking about getting their 3 year old a PS3 or an Xbox 360.” – Aaron Isaksen, AppAbove Games

“Most families have a limited amount of money to spend on games and entertainment so in that respect tablets certainly compete with consoles.” – Dave Castelnuovo, co-founder of Bolt Creative

“There’s no doubt. The hardware costs for a tablet are on the whole higher but that is changing quickly. More importantly, the upfront investment requirement with console games is prohibitive and the utility and mobility of the tablets clearly outstrips what a console can provide. People are changing the way they consume content and tablets reflect that evolving use case far better than dedicated consoles.” – Greg Richardson, CEO of Rumble Entertainment

“Absolutely, 100 percent. It’s a major concern. Shoppers are expected to spend around $260 on average on high-tech gifts this year, so think about what that means. This holiday season is all about value, about gifts that keep on giving. As the public becomes increasingly aware that tablets can be used for a variety of benefits, not just gaming, a lot of households are increasingly looking at tablets as something the entire family can use. It’s a changing story that will shift over time, but not in the console’s favor.” – Scott Steinberg, CEO, TechSavvy Global

“For sure, tablets are so versatile, everyone wants one. Also Sony and Microsoft are not offering new consoles, so the buzz around consoles will be limited to the Wii U. Tablets should win the competition for most wanted gift this holiday season.” – Louis-Rene Auclair, chief brand officer at Hibernum Creations

“We anticipate that once again tablets will be more requested this holiday season than all the consoles combined.” – Jesse Divnich, VP insights and analysis, EEDAR

What will be the hottest tablet for this holiday, and for 2013? Will the 7” tablets overtake the 10” tablets to become the most popular?

“We anticipate that Samsung, Apple, and Amazon will once again lead tablet sales. We anticipate Amazon making a much bigger splash this year. By the end of the holiday season, Amazon’s Kindle will gain considerable ground on both Samsung and Apple.” – Jesse Divnich, VP insights and analysis, EEDAR

“I have a feeling that the iPad mini is going to be pretty popular because of its smaller size. In 2013 I expect Apple to drop the price by $100 on the first gen iPad mini which will directly compete with that generation’s Kindle.” – Dave Castelnuovo, co-founder of Bolt Creative

“From a game point of view, I think the iPad Mini is great just because it already has a ton of games ready to run on it. Apple was very smart to do that. As far as 7″ vs. 10″, I think there will continue to be room for both with the 7″ becoming on the on the go portable play device, and the 10″ becoming the relax on your couch living room play device.” – Dave Walls, president of Funkitron

“I believe there is room for both device types to be wildly popular and to find vast installed bases. They have some fundamental and important differences in benefits which should allow them to find their natural homes. The 7″ tablet fits in my jacket pocket and is easier to wield. The 10″ tablet delivers a more epic entertainment experience due to its bigger screen size and higher fidelity. In some ways, it is splitting hairs because they are both awesome experiences in their own right.” – Doug Scott, VP marketing and revenue, ngmoco

“I think the iPad Mini will be the market leader this holiday if Apple can make enough of them to satisfy demand. As I write this in mid-November, there is a two week waiting list. Overall, I think the iPad Mini will ultimately be the highest selling tablet followed by the iPad 10″. The Amazon, Google and Samsung tablets will fight for the remainder.” – Chris Ulm, CEO, Appy Entertainment

How has game development changed with the tremendous growth of tablets?

“One significant change is the ‘return’ of fragmentation with all the hardware variances and growing app environment.” – John Joseph, VP of product and engineering at PlayHaven

“We have the happy problem of being able to do much bigger and more ambitious games – at a higher development cost of course. Players play longer sessions and are more engrossed in the game, allowing us to create mid-core games that are easy to play but have a lot more depth.” – Chris Ulm, CEO, Appy Entertainment

“This market reached the critical user base to make it worth developing games made specifically for tablets. That being said, the popularity of mobile phones is so strong that it’s slowing the process, as they are strongly incentivizing developers to create ‘universal apps.’ Being able to charge a premium price for a premium game would definitely be a good idea for the current market.” – Louis-Rene Auclair, chief brand officer at Hibernum Creations

“With over 100 million iPads in the market now, iPads and the tablet market have achieved sufficient scale to justify developers making the tablet their primary target platform. In order to be successful on tablets, we believe you must commit to tablets as your starting and ending point. No compromises. That means you don’t stop mid-cycle and ask how a particular feature is going to work or look on a phone. You have to go all-in.” – Greg Harper, general manager, Supercell North America

“We are designing with both smartphones and tablets in mind which obviously means being conscious of image resolution and greater processing power. The most significant change in game development is the complete shift of thought around user interaction with gameplay. I am not talking about the HUD or screen layout (although those have been affected as well) but rather about how users manipulate the gameplay itself in far more nuanced and intuitive fashions. What the Wii did for console interaction, tablets are doing for mobile device interaction. Tablets are introducing games to a much broader audience through better and more intuitive design.” – Doug Scott, VP marketing and revenue, ngmoco

Who will be the winners next year in the tablet market, and who will be the losers?

“I don’t think there will be definitive losers. If you offer a great product and good content, you should have strong growth next year. However, the giants will be untouchable next year and I still believe that Apple will dominate sales both in units sold and content sold.” – Louis-Rene Auclair, chief brand officer at Hibernum Creations

“We see tablets like the iPad as the premier gaming device in the mobile space. Our network data shows that iPad users play 10 percent more game sessions in a day than iPhone users. We also see higher levels of gaming engagement on the iPad than on other tablets. For instance, iPad users play 20 percent more game sessions per day than Nexus 7 users. To us, this shows that the iPad mini will successfully compete against other tablets, like the Kindle Fire and Nexus 7, in the gaming market.” – Pepe Agell, director of business development at Chartboost

“Apple = Winner. I just don’t see Android making the same inroads into the tablet market as it did with cell phones.” – Dave Castelnuovo, co-founder of Bolt Creative

“Apple will be a clear winner with tablets. The rest of the field is too strong to bet against, but it’s still not clear to me how they compete. When comparing different companies and tablets, I think it’s important not only to look at sales figures but also to pay attention to data and app usage levels. One of the most convincing stats Apple shared at the iPad mini launch event was that iPads now account for 91 percent of all web traffic on tablets. That’s a key stat to keep an eye on going forward.” – Greg Harper, general manager, Supercell North America

“In terms of ease-of-use, functionality, and of course application support, Apple is the current front runner. It is there for Apple to lose and we do suspect that Apple will lose considerable ground to Android base devices through next-year. Apple devices no longer provide a significant differentiating experience compared to the other tablets. Apple’s services are still ahead of their class, but the devices themselves are not.” – Jesse Divnich, VP insights and analysis, EEDAR

“I think the race is locked in right now: iOS and Android will be the winners. Apple, Amazon, Samsung and Google will sell the vast majority of tablets. Nokia, Asus, HP, Dell, Microsoft will have a tougher time. Early indications are that the Surface is a modest seller and we expect that Windows 8 will take time to become a viable third ecosystem. I suspect that RIM’s new Blackberry 10 offerings will have a very difficult time gaining traction.” – Chris Ulm, CEO, Appy Entertainment

What challenges are facing tablets as a major game platform?

“A challenge that I see with tablets and game developers comes down to development costs vs. revenue. Tablets generally have bigger screens which means people notice things more. This means that there’s an implicitly higher expectation of quality of the graphics in the game. The problem is that higher quality graphics doesn’t necessarily equate to more revenue, either from in-app purchases or game downloads for a game developer. In the end, this means that costs to produce tablet games are increasing, but there is not an equally increasing willingness from a player to spend in the game.” – John Joseph, VP of product and engineering at PlayHaven

“The touch interface is great for many games, but it can be a major limitation for some type of games. This comes back to the point of the next mega hit for tablets. With limited controls, it’s more of a challenge to create a core game. The developers who can create a set of controls that will allow for more advanced game mechanics will definitely generate a big win for tablets.” – Louis-Rene Auclair, chief brand officer at Hibernum Creations

“The lack of physical buttons is really limiting for some types of games. I think this is the biggest issue to keep tablets from completely dominating the gaming space… if you don’t have a two handed controller, it’s very hard to play a fast-paced FPS. If you don’t have physical buttons, it’s really hard to play a 2D platformer. You can certainly design both types of games for touch only hardware, but it’s not a great player experience, in my opinion.” – Aaron Isaksen, App Above Games

“Tablets are already a major gaming platform. There are over 100 million iPads sold. That puts it at number four among the best-selling consoles in history. Analysts expect Apple to sell another 30 million during this holiday season, that would put it at number three within easy reach of the Nintendo DS (152m) and the PS2 (153m). So not only is the iPad a major gaming platform but it will be the highest selling game platform in history by the end of Q1 2013. If you don’t count the iPhone, that is. Now if ‘major gaming platform’ means a platform that is the primary focus of Activision and EA, then I would say the challenge is getting their executives to risk creating a AAA title for the iPad. I like what Square is doing with experimenting with premium pricing models, but the actual games are lacking in quality.” – Dave Castelnuovo, co-founder of Bolt Creative

“Fragmentation outside the Apple ecosystem is a risk. If there are too many different kinds of devices, developers will have hard time supporting them all.” – Greg Harper, general manager,
Supercell North America

“Integration with the living room and other portable devices is one key way that tablets need to get better. All platform owners need to do a much better job with game based social networks like Game Center which has enormous potential to allow developers to create new experiences. To better compete with consoles, tablets will have to grow more graphically powerful while keeping ten hour battery life.” – Chris Ulm, CEO, Appy Entertainment

What’s the biggest challenge, and the biggest opportunity, for a tablet game developer?

“The biggest challenge is in lowering the risk of development for game makers. Costs are rising, the market is crowded and users expect great software for free. An enormous number of game developers are not breaking even. They need creative services within the ecosystem to monetize and promote their work. Apple, Google and Amazon should be focused on how their platforms can increase developer revenue, as this will allow developers to reinvest in quality games. iAd is a step in this direction, but we need a breakthrough service that takes mobile advertising to the next level while giving users incentives they value in order to support the biggest entertainment software “network” in history. Right now, this effort is fractured.” – Chris Ulm, CEO, Appy Entertainment

“The biggest opportunity I see for tablet game developers is adoption from a slightly different user segments – more mid-core and hard-core gamers. The new user segment that will be playing games on tablets is the gamer who, five years ago, was playing on a Playstation 3, but no longer has the time to dedicate to this type of game yet still wants a high-quality gaming experience.” – John Joseph, VP of product and engineering at PlayHaven

“It’s very difficult for a developer to make a reasonable amount of money on Android but there is still plenty of opportunity for developers of all sizes to hit it big on the iPad. The biggest challenge is staying focused and keeping at it. Don’t look at what everyone else is doing. Follow through with your vision and get your game out the door. If it doesn’t do well, learn from your mistakes and don’t dwell on it. Roll what you learn into another game and repeat ad infinitum.” – Dave Castelnuovo, co-founder of Bolt Creative

“I think the biggest opportunity is deliver increasingly high quality game experiences, but on the flip side the biggest challenge is how to raise awareness for them. It’s not like you’re walking into a store where you have dozens of choices in front of you; you’re walking into an App Store with over half a million choices, all of which are available on demand, and 99.9 percent of which aren’t immediately visible. We hear time and time again about high-quality games for every mobile system, smartphones as well as tablets, and even though they’re best of breed or may bring something new and innovative to the table, simply can’t make their money back. Either they had to have been offered free to compete with the marketplace and can’t seem to recoup based on the business model they’ve put behind it, or users just can’t find them, and they can’t get that visibility on the App Store charts they desperately need to survive.” – Scott Steinberg, CEO, TechSavvy Global

“The biggest challenge is handling all these new devices. Being able to create your games for all these devices, and still make it work business wise, will be challenging. But it is also the biggest opportunity, as it only means the market will grow and more devices will be getting into the hands of more players, and all those devices could be playing your game.” – Dave Walls, president of Funkitron

“I currently think it is far too limiting to be a just tablet-focused game developer. The download volumes on smart phones are too big to ignore, and given that the freemium paradigm is the main game monetization model, you’d need a large population to convert from. This could all change in 2-3 years. Now, however, the current install base of tablets are a fraction of smart phones globally.” – PlayFirst CEO and president Marco DeMiroz

“We firmly believe that tablets are the ultimate game platform and the first to deliver a true mass-market audience. The opportunity for developers is still wide open and ripe with possibilities. Next year, there are two major trends I think we’ll see emerge on tablets – more games for core gamers and deeper social game experiences. Because so many developers are flocking to tablets and mobile, we expect to see the quality of games take a major leap forward in 2013, which will raise the quality bar for everyone. Consumers will devour these new gorgeous experiences and come back looking for more. The biggest challenge for all of us may simply be keeping up with players’ expectations.” – Greg Harper, general manager, Supercell North America

“If a developer can get inside the mind and body of a gamer and find a way to translate the fiction of their game in an intuitive way through the tablet touch interface then great riches await. If the developer falls back on the interface paradigms that worked in older platforms, it is no different than when the original TV shows were just filmed versions of radio broadcasts.” – Doug Scott, VP marketing and revenue, ngmoco(source:gamesindustry)