作者：Jon Jordan

第一届手机游戏欧洲大会于本周在伦敦举行，与会者中有许多熟悉的面孔，而观众中则有许多陌生的面孔。

本次大会提出的业界当前的趋势，有些发言人只是老调重弹，有些发言人则强调了一些他们认为正盛行的趋势，那些我们得等到明年才能想到。

以下则是本文作者根据大会发言归纳整理出来的5个趋势。

multi srceen(from seattletimes)

1、单屏过时了

在手机游戏大会上如何作开场？德国游戏开发公司HandyGames首席执行官Christopher Kassulke的答案是，告诉所有人成为手机游戏开发者的日子到头了。

当然，他不是在打击整个行业，只是道破真相：你为手机制作的游戏现在可以在许多其他平台上发行，如PC、网页、智能电视、机顶盒等等。

HandyGames在所有这些平台上都发行了游戏，并且在明年还有更多计划。Kassulke特别看好Android系统的Ouya游戏机，因为这款设备将在三月发行。确实，HandyGames是Ouya在Kickstarter网站（游戏邦注：是一个纯大众化的捐赠网站，任何人都可以通过它向自己中意的项目赞助资金）上的主要赞助商，其赞助资金达到1万美元。

然而，更加显著的，也更加复杂的一个趋势是，双屏的崛起将完全改变游戏的视野。这一点是由Blitz Games的John Nash提出的。

一定程度上，微软SmartGlass和Wii U已经实现了这一点。但随着所有连接设备之间的关系进一步深化，新类型游戏和商业模式的机遇也会影响事态。

Nash认为：“因为Xbox、Surface、SmartGlass和Windows 8的集成，甚至连苹果也得对微软另眼相看。”

这话多少暗示了Apple TV的传闻。

2、“鲸鱼”玩家定义

游戏行业顾问Nicholas Lovell是首先在英国大会上普及“鲸鱼”（游戏邦注：即“whale”，是指在免费游戏中大量消费的一类玩家。）这个术语的人之一。

他曾经想用另一个更积极的词“真正的粉丝”来取代“鲸鱼”，但后者的使用更广，主要是因为后来又与之配套地产生了“海豚”（指中等消费的玩家）和“小鱼”（低消费玩家）这两个术语。

然而，Lovell提出了一个独特的新方法来微妙地区分这两个术语。

Lovell解释道：“一个‘鲸鱼’玩家可能会在你的游戏中狂砸100美元，第二天早上醒来就后悔了，而真正的粉丝一觉醒来后会向所有好友推荐这款游戏。”

3、营销成本有增无减

大会上的许多议论中未挑明的设想是，采用这种技巧或那种第三方技术或服务，会让游戏大获成功。

当然，事情永远不是那么简单。

正如英国的Neon Play公司的Oil Christie和日本GREE公司的Kyoto Matsushita所说的，成功来自刻苦努力。

Matsushita指出，在GREE平台上有许多高品质的游戏并没有那么成功，部分是因为开发商好像认为那个平台本身就能让游戏成功，不需要开发商利用更新之类的手段来助长游戏。

Christie详述了许多不同的渠道，如PR、Chartboost、Facebook、Twitter、YouTube等等。Neon Play为了让它的游戏《Traffic Panic London》得到45万次下载量，就是利用了这些渠道。

但导致其成功的最大原因是什么？好吧，应该是这款游戏长达一个月的Google Play推广活动吧。

类似地，Flurry的Richard Firminger认为除非开发商打算在用户获得渠道上花费10万至40万美元，否则就不能指望能诞生一款顶级游戏。

这件事的寓意是，他们有银头子弹（应用商店），但不能用。或者你可以运用软头子弹（大众市场）的冲击力，但两个极端之间没有中间地带。

4、游戏的乐趣

在硬核游戏机的亚条目范围以外，没有人再讨论过免费模式是否道德。

我越来越不喜欢用“用户”代替“玩家”，我越来越害怕业界混淆了宝宝的乐趣和赢利的脏洗澡水（游戏邦注：这句话出自“把宝宝和洗澡水一起倒掉”，意为本末倒置。）

在谈到Swrve公司的预测行为分析工具时，Steven Collins的伟大发言进一步强调了这一情形，开发者借助这一工具可以将玩家归类为不同的群组，然后根据想要达到的效果，分别向其发送相应的信息。

现在，Swrve开发这门技术并没有什么错。Collins和公司联合创始人Hugh Reynolds都是极其聪明的人，很能迎合行业的需求。但我们都知道一旦能利用这种工具了，开发商要做的事就只有利用它进行赢利活动。

我们真正需要的是有人提供一个分析平台，使我们能够增加玩家的乐趣，或曾经称作“设计更有趣的游戏”。

最终，这种98%活跃玩家好像都不太关心为自己的体验付费，以及62%玩家下载了游戏后一个月就不再玩的行业，还能够长存吗？

5、消费的乐趣

根据顾问Will Luton的观点，玩家们都长大了，可以很好地对抗开发商的贪婪要求。

他呼应了NaturalMotion首席执行官orsten Reil的话：“我认为大多数开发商在赢利方面还不够努力。”

确实，Luton欣然承认他每周在《Magic the Gathering》实物卡片上花费超过100美元，而Nicholas Lovell则说100美元等于“两个人在欧洲的某个城市里吃顿好的，带葡萄酒的那种”（他显然比Lovell出手更大方）。

然而，重点是，我们都花钱，且往往在我们的兴趣和社交活动上大量消费，这正是手机游戏的现状。（本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译，拒绝任何不保留版权的转载，如需转载请联系：游戏邦）

Five industry trends to ponder from Mobile Gaming Europe 2012

by Jon Jordan

The first Mobile Gaming Europe conference, held in London this week, saw a lot of familiar faces taking and a lot of unfamiliar faces in the audience.

The context was a similar mix, with some ongoing trends rehashed and restated, while some speakers looked to highlight what they considered to be the trends that we’ll be considering in 2013.

Another opportunity for PocketGamer.bix conference trends round up then….

1. One screen bad

How do you kickstart a conference about mobile gaming? According to Christopher Kassulke, CEO of German developer HandyGames, you do it by telling everyone that the days of being a mobile game developer are over.

Of course, he wasn’t beating on the industry; only pointing out that the games you make for mobile devices can now be released on many other platforms – PC, web, smart TVs, set top boxes etc.

HandyGames is releasing on all these and looking to do much more in 2013, with Kassulke particularly keen on the Android-based Ouya console that’s due to be released in March. Indeed, HandyGames was one of Ouya’s main sponsors on Kickstarter, donating $10,000 to the cause.

However, a trend even more significant – and complex -was highlighted by Blitz Games’ John Nash. He reckoned the rise of the second screen would completely changes the gaming landscape.

To a degree this is already happening with Microsoft’s SmartGlass and the Wii U. But as the links deepen between all connected devices, the opportunities for new types of games and business models is really going to shake things up.

‘Even Apple is looking at Microsoft in a new light because of the integration between Xbox, Surface, SmartGlass and Windows 8,’ Nash argued.

Cue some more of those Apple TV rumours.

2. The tricky dynamics of definition

Consultant Nicholas Lovell was one of the first to populise the term ‘whale’ (a big spending player in a free-to-play game) in the UK conference scene.

He’s since looked to replace it with the more positive ‘true fan’, but the original term remains the more widely used, mainly because it also works within the sequence of ‘dolphin’ (medium spender) and ‘minnow’ (tiny spender).

Ever inventive, however, Lovell’s new approach is to subtly differentiate between the two terms.

“A whale will spend $100 in your game and wake up regretting it in the morning, while a true fan will wake up and tell all their friends about it,” Lovell opined.

3. Silver bullets or dum dums

The unspoken assumption of many of the talks at conferences is that employing this technique or that third party technology or service will make your game an unbridled success.

Of course, it’s never the case.

As explained by Oil Christie from UK developer Neon Play, and GREE’s Kyoto Matsushita, success is all about hard work.

Matsushita pointed out that there are some high quality games on the GREE platform that haven’t been successful, in part, because developers seem to think that the platform itself will bring them success, without the developer nurturing their games with updates and the like.

Christie detailed the many different channels – PR, Chartboost, Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, standalone companion title etc – that Neon Play worked through in order to get 4.5 million downloads for its game Traffic Panic London.

But the biggest reason for its success? Well, that would be the month-long Google Play promotion the game received.

Similarly, Flurry’s Richard Firminger said that unless developers are looking to spend between $100,000 to $400,000 on user acquisition, they shouldn’t be thinking about getting a top ranked game.

The moral of the story is there are silver bullets (app store features) but you can’t rely on them. Or you can apply the brunt force of massive marketing (dum bullets), but there’s not much available inbetween.

4. The joy of play

Outside of the hardcore console sub-clique, no one discusses whether the free-to-play model is moral any more. (Maybe we should.)

Instead, much of the talk at conferences such as Mobile Gaming Europe is contextualised in a very deterministic and inhuman manner.

My dislike of the term ‘user’ for ‘player’ is ongoing, and my fear about the industry’s confusion between the baby of fun and the dirty bathwater of monetisation grows apace.

It’s a situation that was further underlined by a great talk from Swrve’s Steven Collins about its predictive behaviour analytics tools, which enable developers to segment their players into different groups and send them tailored messages depending on how you want to influence what they do.

Now, there’s nothing wrong with the technology Swrve is building. Collins and co-founder Hugh Reynolds are extremely clever chaps (having previously formed Havok) and are fulfilling an industry need. But we all know that once such tools are available, the only thing developers are going to be using them for is hardcore monetisation.

What we really need is someone to build an analytics platform that allows us to enhance players’ fun, or ‘interesting game design’ as it used to be called.

After all, can we keep running an industry where 98 percent of active players don’t seem to care enough to pay for their experience and 62 percent of those who download your game don’t bother to play after the first month?

5. The joy of spend

But leading on from point 4, perhaps I’m just getting old fashioned in my mid-age.

According to consultant Will Luton, players are all growed up and can well handle themselves against the rapacious demands of developers.

“I don’t think most developers are monetising hard enough,” he suggested, echoing the words of NaturalMotion CEO Torsten Reil.

Indeed, Luton was happy to confess that he spends over ￡100 per week on physical Magic the Gathering cards, while Nicholas Lovell contextualised ￡100 saying ‘It’s a good meal for two with wine in a European city’. (He’s obviously more of a high roller than PocketGamer.biz. Luckly old Mrs Lovell.)

The point is, however, that we all spend money – often large amounts – on our hobbies and our social experiences, and that is exactly what mobile games now are.

So go forth and prosper.（source：pocketgamer）