作者：James Nouch

根据本周首次发布的App Annie Index图表可知App Store与Google Play目前的运营状况。

App Annie提供的应用商店数据有助于我们清晰了解同一时刻某个地区的发展情况，该图表致力于以更宽广视角看待游戏行业。

在最近采访中，App Annie首席执行官Bertrand Schmitt与营销副总裁Oliver Lo谈及了这种新型服务背后隐藏的理念。

什么是App Annie Index？制作这类图表的用意何在？

BS：我们之所以制作Index图表，因为我们一直在免费提供市场数据，且对发行商的表现情况进行排名。

同时，另一方面，我们也会向付费客户提供更加具体的分析指标。

我们的目标是，不仅免费提供某些情况，而且还提供每月排名情况、以全球视野看待当前行业趋势，并针对不同应用商店进行比较。

如果你只看苹果或谷歌的每日排名情况，那你根本无法了解当前行业形势。位列某个国家的某个名次有何含义？你压根不清楚该问题的答案。

我认为，通过每月观察，你能够更加便捷地见识到真正趋势——不仅仅是某个数据值发生变化，而且还能清楚游戏市场的真正走向。

首个App Annie Index图表强调东亚国家在全球应用市场日益增加的重要性。东亚地区的应用下载量与收益正逐渐提升，你认为西方游戏是否适合该地区？西方开发商能否拥有发展机会？

OL：我认为这种商机取决于发行商吸引用户所采取的手段。

显然，东亚地区存在大量盈利商机，但如果你只是将某款西方游戏翻译为当地语言，而后推广到这个市场，那么情况往往相反。

如果你仔细研究日本与韩国市场的热门游戏，你会发现它们充满亚洲风格。比如《飞龙骑士》这款突出佳作——你还会在该地区发现注入亚洲风格的老式《太空入侵者》类型的游戏。

在我看来，先前，西方发行商可能只把亚洲地区当作次要市场——将西方领域为他们的获利基地，而亚洲地区只能创造微薄收益，但现在这种模式已发生变化。

现在，我们希望发行商认识到，亚洲市场在创收方面占据重大比例，尤其在Google Play平台。

因此，在谈及全球收益方面时，亚洲地区应列入首要考虑范畴。它应成为核心战略的一部分。

BS：事实确实如此。发行商应在一开始就整合游戏内容，而不是纯粹翻译语言。

但与此同时，你会发现，像DeNA发行的《Rage of Bahamut》这类游戏在美国市场大获成功的案例可知，西方发行商同样有望在东亚地区取胜。

问题是，你应投入时间了解游戏市场，合理改造游戏内容，这并非不可能。你应以此为重点，要获得幸运之神的眷顾并没有那么容易。

OL：当然，游戏领域也存在各国通吃的游戏，比如《愤怒的小鸟》、《水果忍者》。

但还有其它一些游戏则根植于东西方风格，它们基于特定国家品味，并且已有十几年的发展时间。

Index图表还指出游戏行业的另一主要趋势，即Google Play正“迎头赶上”iOS。它的下载与获利增长速度比iOS略胜一筹，你认为Google Play会赶上，甚至赶超iOS吗？

BS：一般而言，我们不会过多预测这方面情况，因为这都取决于不定因素，但从当前趋势来看，Google Play的发展速度无疑更快，而且没有减缓趋势。

同时，iOS平台的增长速度相对更加缓慢。但考虑到iPad Mini、新iPad与iPhone5的陆续推出，我们预计，iOS在第四季度的发展速度可能会加快一些，但Google Play的增长速度相对更快。

基本上，我们认为Google Play可能会在明年赶上iOS。我想这种可能性极大。

如果你现在开始制作游戏，那么也许可以在6个月后推出。

考虑到当前增长速度，如果目前你正着手制作某个项目，那么你就不能忽视Google Play平台。要么你在iOS平台发行后推出Android版本，要么一开始你就考虑到Google Play。

同时，App Annie Index还根据发行商的获利情况进行相应排名。目前，EA以拥有962款应用在iOS平台占据领先位置，但Supercell仅发行两款作品就能位列其后。对此你感到惊奇吗？

BS：我们并未感到惊讶，依据相关数据，我们可以预测这种势头。但这无疑给我们留下了深刻印象。

在我看来，Supercell正在复制某些发行商的成功案例，比如Rovio与Halfbrick Studios。我觉得，Supercell正走向这些公司的相同发展之路。

OL：当你观察那些只推出1-2款游戏的发行商时就会发现，相对于扩大发行量，这些公司更注重游戏品质。

我很想知道这些公司的未来发展模式。

目前，Supercell公司拥有70名成员，并且还获得了强大的支持。该公司正逐渐壮大，它必须选择自己的发展方式以及开发作品的方式。

就地区、应用商店与题材方面来看，你们认为，目前开发商与发行商在哪方面拥有最大商机？

BS：这主要取决于自己的优势，或潜在优势，有关答案各种各样。

假如现在你是个西方发行商，那么你更容易在西方市场与iOS平台取胜。也许这是难度最小的领域。

虽然，有时你会想要扩大市场规模。此时，你应着眼于Google Play平台，并且更好地适应东亚市场。

你当然可以做到这样。虽然我们没有在Index图表中提到这方面，但你可以看下Glu Mobile，该公司目前在韩国Google Play平台上的表现十分出色。

OL：当涉及游戏类型时，我发现了另一种不同于一年前的趋势。

一年多前，当该领域从社交游戏过渡到移动游戏时，你会发现，在排行榜上表现优异的一般是休闲游戏、农场游戏、城市游戏这些类型。

我认为自己历经了转变，而且Zynga这类发行商也为此注入资金，关注中核与硬核游戏。

实际上，Supercell的成功案例表明，硬核游戏也可以极具易用性与休闲性。

Supercell已设法将具有高度盈利性的游戏机制运用于大众市场，这意味着游戏生态系统正逐步成熟发展。

我想，移动领域正逐渐走向成熟，用户对游戏的选择也会更加成熟，他们渴望更加复杂的作品——而不是那些玩过一次便会丢掉的游戏。

事实证明，如果你研究App Annie Index图表与应用盈利排行榜，你会发现其中包括战略、赌场、RPG、竞速与动作等各类题材的游戏。

BS：……当然，赌场游戏属于有趣类型。不少游戏公司（游戏邦注：比如Zynga与Big Fish）正涌入该领域，他们投入大量精力，由此可见，赌场类型值得深入研究。

你们肯定会在同领域面临竞争对手，大体上，你们提供的数据基本相似，那么你认为自己有哪些略胜一筹的优势？

BS：首先必须指出，我们并非提供相同数据。

有超过15万应用会使用我们公司的数据分析服务，在前100名顶级发行商中有40％以上的公司会利用我们提供的数据。相对其它公司，长期以来我们一直在提供免费数据分析服务。

因此，我认为我们并未提供相同数据——我们提供更多类型，而且游戏行业中的发行商巨头也会使用我们的数据。借此，我们可以更加具体地了解高端市场。

如果你观察我们App Annie提供的情报付费服务项目，你会发现在iOS盈利榜单占据前15位的发行商中，有10家会购买我们的数据，而且他们已从中获得不少信息。

同时，我们也从开发商身上了解不少知识，因此，我们可以不断完善自己的服务项目。而其它数据分析公司却无法做到。

该领域的竞争氛围十分激烈，但对我们而言，真正竞争对手并不多。

QL：事实上，所有市场数据公司主张的价值理念均是市场数据的品质与精确性。这是人们在乎的一个问题。

如果你打算基于数据构造国际战略或投资战略，那么你应信任这些数据。如果数据不够准确，算法设计不够完美，而且不足以构成模型，那么使用这些数据则变得毫无意义。

这是我们的关注重点，也是大量发行、游戏、投资领域巨头购买我们数据的原因。

同时，这也是我们在Index上共享的原因，我觉得现在人们急切需要这类数据，因为他们对该领域困惑越来越多，但在大众眼中，现有的这些数据信息源仍然不够。

我们希望可以为游戏行业提供这类信息。（本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译，拒绝任何不保留版权的转载，如需转载请联系：游戏邦）

Supercell on track to be the next Rovio, says AppAnnie

by James Nouch

This week sees the launch of the first App Annie Index – a free report into the current state of the App Store and Google Play.

Set to be released on a monthly schedule, the Index is designed to act as an ongoing guide to global trends.

While a look at App Annie’s store stats will give you precise data in one region at one moment in time, the Index aims to offer a wider perspective on the industry.

We’ve highlighted some of the first report’s key findings already on PocketGamer.biz, or you can find it in full on the App Annie website.

But to find out more about the thinking behind this new offering, and to dig a little deeper into its findings, we caught up with App Annie CEO Bertrand Schmitt and the company’s VP of marketing Oliver Lo.

What is the App Annie Index and what prompted you to produce it?

Bertrand Schmitt: We did the index because, for a long time, we’ve been providing this free market data and giving publishers access to rankings.

At the same time, at the other end of the spectrum, we provide the very detailed analytical metrics to our premium customers.

We felt that we wanted to do something in-between. Something that would still be free, but also provide monthly rankings, a worldwide perspective on what’s going on and a comparison of the different app stores.

If you just get the daily rankings from Apple or Google, you have no idea what’s going on. What does it mean to be in this specific rank in this specific country? You don’t know.

I think by being able to look at things with a monthly perspective, you’re able to more easily see real trends – not just that the dot moved for a few days, but where the market’s actually going.

The first App Annie Index emphasises the increasing importance of East Asian countries in the global app market. Download rates and revenues are increasing there, but do you think there’s an appetite for western games in the region and therefore an opportunity for western developers?

Oliver Lo: I think the appetite depends on the appetite of the publishers to really engage with those audiences.

It’s clear that there are massive revenue opportunities, but it’s not the case that you can just take western games, translate them and put them in those markets.

If you look at the games that are popular in Japan and in Korea, they are very, very Asian games. Take a look at DragonFlight for Kakao – one of the breakout hits that we really ‘out’ in this Index – and you’ll see an old school Space Invaders-type game, but infused with a very Asian style.

I think before, western publishers would think of Asia as a secondary thing – the west is their base and Asia is an auxillary to boost revenues a bit – but the balance of powers is now shifting.

The point we’re often trying to make to publishers is that Asia is now starting to take the bulk of the revenues, for Google Play in particular.

So when you’re talking about generating global revenues, Asia can no longer be an afterthought. It’s got to be part of your core strategy.

BS: It’s very true. Publishers have to think from the start about adapting their content – not just translating.

But at the same time, you see that some games like Rage of Bahamut from DeNA are successful in the US, so I think that a western publishers could be successful as well in East Asia.

It’s a question of spending time understanding the market and adapting your games properly, but it’s not impossible. You just need to be focused on it. You won’t get lucky too easily.

OL: There are definitely some games that are accessible across all cultures – Angry Birds, for instance, or Fruit Ninja.

But there are other games that are very rooted in east or west, and that are based on specific gaming tastes that have been developed over decades.

Another major trend that’s identified in the Index is Google Play ‘catching up’ to iOS. Its downloads and revenues are growing faster than iOS, so do you think it will catch up – or even overtake – iOS?

BS: Usually we don’t try to predict too much because it depends on many things we don’t control, but if you look at the current trends and try to project, it definitely looks like Google Play is moving up fast, and that growth isn’t slowing down much.

At the same time, the growth rate on iOS is definitely slower. For sure, given the launch of iPad Mini, the new iPad, the iPhone 5, we’re expecting iOS to accelerate a bit during this Q4, but Google Play is on the path to grow much faster.

Basically, we don’t think it’s impossible for Google Play to catch up next year. We think it’s possible.

If you start developing a game today, it might be released in six months.

Considering its current growth rate, you cannot afford to ignore Google Play if you’re working on a game right now. You either have to launch an Android version soon after your iOS release, or consider Google Play right from the beginning.

The App Annie Index also ranks the top publishers by revenue. Currently EA is in pole position for iOS with its roster of 962 apps, but Supercell is in second place with only two app launches under its belt. Was this a surprise?

BS: It’s not a surprise in the sense that we saw it coming – we saw the numbers. It’s definitely impressive, though.

For me, Supercell is duplicating the success of certain other publishers, such as Rovio and Halfbrick Studios. My feeling is that Supercell is going the same way as these companies.

OL: When you look at those publishers that are based on one or two IPs – as opposed to those that spread their bets over a number of properties – and the way that they run their companies, they tend to be really focused on quality.

It’ll be interesting to see how those companies develop in the future.

Supercell is a 70-person company right now and it’s got good backing. It’s going to grow, and the company will have to make choices about how it grows and how it develops its portfolio.

What areas do you think provide the biggest opportunities for developers and publishers right now in terms of regions, app stores and genres?

BS: Depending on where you believe you are strong, or where you can be strong, the answer will be different.

Today, if you are a western publisher, is that the easiest win is probably to be focused on the western market and on iOS. That’s probably easiest.

At some point, though, you’ll definitely want to grow your market. At that stage, you’ll have to do Google Play and you’ll have to better adapt to the East Asian market.

It’s definitely possible to do this. We didn’t mention it in the Index, but if you look at Glu Mobile, that company is doing very well in Korea on Google Play right now.

OL: When it comes to game types – one trend I’ve seen looking at the space now compared to how it was a year ago, is

A year or so ago, when the space was moving from social games to mobile games, you’d see more games at the top of the charts that are casual games, farm games, city games – that kind of thing.

I think we’re seeing a shift, and publishers like Zynga are investing in this shift, towards mid-core and hardcore.

And actually, the success of Supercell is particularly telling, because it has taken what is – in terms of game mechanics – a hardcore game and designed it so that it’s very accessible and almost casual.

Supercell has managed to take very highly-monetising game mechanics and bring it to the masses, and that’s a sign of the development of the ecosystem that’s maturing.

I think the mobile space is maturing and audiences are becoming more mature in terms of their tastes in games, and going for increasingly sophisticated titles – as opposed to the days when it was just about throwing paper in a bin.

That’s borne out if you look at the App Annie Index and look at the top game apps by revenue, where you’ve got a lot of strategy, casino, RPG, racing and action games…

BS: …And of course the casino is a particularly interesting category. Many companies are rushing in – Zynga, Big Fish – they’re investing a lot in this, so casino is definitely a
category to watch.

Finally, I wanted to ask about App Annie more broadly. You have rivals in the same space and you’re largely working with the same data, so what would you say makes you better than the competition?

BS: We’re not really accessing the same data in the first place.

More than 150,000 apps use our analytics service and more than 40 percent of the top 100 publishers use us. And we’ve been doing that, and providing this free analytics service, for a longer time than anybody else.

So I think we don’t have access to the same data – we have access to much more, and the biggest publishers are using us. This gives us insights about the top of the market in much finer detail than anyone else.

In the gaming space particularly, so many companies are using us. If you look at our App Annie Intelligence premium service – you take the top 15 publishers on iOS by revenues, and ten of them are buying our data, and they’ve learned a lot from our service.

And we’ve learned a lot from them, too, that’s allowed us to improve our offering over time. No other company can claim such coverage of the top publishers.

There are many people trying to compete in that space, but not so many that are real competition to us.

OL: The value proposition of all market data companies is really about the quality and accuracy of market data. That’s the one thing people care about.

If you’re going to base your whole international strategy – or you whole investment strategy – on data, then you have to trust it. If that data is not accurate, if your algorithms aren’t well designed, if you don’t have many data-points to build models from, then there’s no point in anyone using the data.

That’s something we’ve heavily invested in, and that’s why so many of the big guys in publishing, gaming, investment, buy our data.

It’s also why we wanted to share it on the Index, because I feel there’s a really high demand for this data now, because people are asking more and more questions about the space, but there’s a shortage of that data in the public eye.

We wanted to give that information to the industry.(source:pocketgamer)