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searchenginewatch:观察家看好虚拟商品交易的九大理由

发布时间:2010-10-05 09:45:53 Tags:,,,,

游戏世界中的虚拟商品交易在未来数年内不但不会走向没落,而且还将更上一层楼,以下是笔者作此推断的理由:

1.社交游戏已成气候

2010年,社交游戏的产值已达100亿美元。

2.“品牌虚拟商品”的市场规模持续扩大

2009年,美国品牌虚拟商品的市场规模已达10亿美元,预期2011年将达21亿美元;到2013年,全球品牌虚拟商品的市场交易总额将达1.5亿美元,甚至还有人认为,这一数据还仅仅是所有虚拟商品交易的5%。

3.互联网、移动互联网、电视呈现合流趋势

美国市场研究公司Inside Network主管贾斯汀·史密斯(Justin Smith)曾在《虚拟商品市场调查报告》(Inside Virtual Goods)中表示,“如果说2010年可以称为虚拟商品交易在西方市场的喷发期,那么2011年则是这一市场的成熟期,因为社交游戏、在线游戏、虚拟世界、掌机游戏、手机游戏的已呈现跨平台的发展趋势,届时这一市场规模将达20亿美元。”

4.“第二人生”(Second Life)游戏平台飞速发展

尽管“第二人生”的用户增速还不甚理想,但该平台目前已为虚拟商品的整体交易市场创收6亿美元。早在2006年,“第二人生”中的风云人物安森·钟(Anshe Chung)就已依靠虚拟土地开发,跻身百万富婆行列。尽管“第二人生”经常被视为怪人集中营而非时尚前沿,但这并不妨碍其创造规模惊人的虚拟游戏经济,该平台用户在2009年末共达成价值1.008亿美元的虚拟商品交易。

另外,“第二人生”多金不差钱的创造者林登实验室(Linden Labs)在今年年初的收购也连连得手,Avatars United(大型多人在线游戏社交网站)以及Xstreet and OnRez(虚拟商品交易经纪人)尽归旗下。有关人士认为,林登实验室正在施行一项重大的战略调整,意将整合第三方资源,共同运营“第二人生”平台。

5.地理定位服务功能再创商机

Facebook以及Foursquare等基于地理定位服务的社交网站,被视为西方社交游戏产业、品牌虚拟商品交易繁荣发展的最大推手。Facebook最近采取了一些游戏限制措施,以防病毒通过该平台传播,这一政策直接造成2010年虚拟商品交易市场的增长减速。由此可见,社交网站对该市场的作用之大,影响之深。

foursquare-times-square

foursquare-times-square

6.大型传媒公司的收购狂潮

传媒公司中的巨无霸Disney于今年七月斥资7.63亿美元收购Playdom公司,游戏公司巨头电子艺届则已在2009年将Playfish收编。更有传闻称微软也正盘算秘密收购林登实验室的竞争对手Vivacity公司。与微软不同,谷歌的收购举动最为高调,先后将社交游戏公司LabPixies、Slide.com、SocialDeck以及社交付费平台Jambool收入囊中。谷歌和微软究竟意欲何为?也许这两者都热衷于收购良才,而非已成形的新产品,都准备在年底前争夺更多的关注,所不同的是,微软操的武器是Xbox掌机,谷歌使的法宝是谷歌电视(Google TV)。

7.经济衰退影响

《跑跑卡丁车》(Kart Rider)这款游戏是虚拟商品交易最成功的范本之一,目前拥有2.3亿用户(几乎是Facebook用户规模的一半),在韩国更有高达30%的游戏粉丝。笔者在2008年访问韩国时,了解到虚拟商品交易起源于亚洲主要有两个因素:

·1998年亚经济危机造成的低就业率影响;

·亚洲政府为重振经济,在互联网基础设施上的大量投入。

kart-rider

kart-rider

这两个因素所催发的结果就是,大型多人在线游戏在亚洲市场大受欢迎,因为年轻的失业劳动力别无选择,只能靠游戏消遣时间。考虑到大部分用户的低消费水平,游戏公司选择了低收费的运营模式。与美国用户动辄为电脑游戏花费60美元的情况不同,日本、中国、韩国仅向大型多人在线游戏玩家征收少量费用,并允许玩家购买游戏内置装备提高娱乐体验。这一模式大获成功,广告商也不甘落后找上门来,与游戏公司一道推广品牌游戏道具或装备,比如说《跑跑卡丁车》中标榜为Mini或BMW品牌的小型赛车。

尽管我们不知道世界是否已走出这次经济低迷,但有一点可以肯定,这次经济危机已触发游戏市场营销者的投资战略变革,市场营销预算也开始从传统的开支渠道转向搜索引擎、社交网站、移动互联网等在线渠道。

8.SVG、云、富数据格式和虚拟世界等网络技术已成熟

网络技术预示虚拟游戏已呈现跨平台发展趋势主要表现在,更小的终端设备也开始支持富媒体服务,而且每个入口都能保存用户信息。可缩放矢量图形(Scalable Vector Graphics ,简称SVG)将支持网站开发者创造出色而无缝对接的跨平台终点。云计算通过服务器一端的程序处理,允许开发公司将丰富的个性化体验转移到更低配置的设备上。富数据控件反过来将允许网站服务器保存用户的跨平台个人信息,这一点对社交网站和社交服务尤其适用,意味着用户无论挂在哪个社交网站上都能获取自己的个人数据,访问现实朋友的网站。

但这些网络技术的出现并不完全是天意所为,人的创意更是其中一大诱因。笔者曾在韩国访问了正在开发“第二人生”克隆版本的Nurien Software公司,了解到他们准备将社交网站与大型多人在线游戏相结合,创造一个全新的社交互动圈。该项目将含文本聊天(可表达语气)、网络视频聊天等功能(支持一对一的双向直接交流),具有在虚拟世界中改进的潜质。支持用户群体共享空间内容,组团参加活动,比如说在虚拟空间中围坐一堂看电影。更重要的是,这些直接的交流和沟通还可以通过肢体语言和手势得到强化,换句话说,这就好比是玩家的虚拟游戏形象可以相互亲吻对方。

9.虚拟世界、虚拟商品为用户创造真实价值

正如“第二人生”的专栏作家艾薇·科曼(Avril Korman)在一系列“第二人生新手指南”的文章中所言,虚拟世界和虚拟商品为用户创造了真实世界的情感价值。

在《第二人生:虚拟建筑篇》中,她论述了用户对设计自己理想家园的强烈渴望,分享了她如何针对这一情况开展虚拟建筑事业,让用户花费最少的钱为自己的梦想投资等经历。

在《第二人生:时尚篇》中,她认为虚拟世界满足了普通人的现实消费欲望,而不会让人们因疯狂购物而遭受拧大包小包挤地铁之苦。用户仅需花少量钱为虚拟设计师提交的优秀作品买单,这一操作确实让“第二人生”的居民们产生极大的满足感。

在《第二人生:爱情、金钱、名誉、魅力篇》中,她教用户如何靠创造、出售自己的虚拟商品获利,如何将游戏中的Linden币转变为现实的钞票。虚拟世界中极低的企业日常管理费用,为更多人创造了赚钱的独特渠道,这种唾手可得的商机确实是其他任何社交网站所无法创造的优势。

综上所述,这一市场最主要的三重趋势即:

·美国及全世界的虚拟商品交易的市场规模还在扩大;

·从Xbox Live点数、Facebook积分、谷歌收购Jambool等可以看出,虚拟货币已成游戏中的通用“硬钞”;

·互联网、移动互联网、电视三者形成合流。

虚拟世界已经为多个平台的用户创造了真实价值和情感沟通等服务,相信在不久的将来还能看到不同社交网站之间的虚拟货币交易系统问世。假如此事成真,这就意味着更多用户可以自由买卖虚拟商品,而虚拟内容制造者也有望通过多种渠道,从虚拟商品交易中赢取更多实际收益。(本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译)

9 Reasons Why it Might Be Time For Marketers to Value Virtual Goods

I’ll just go ahead and admit it… I am curious about Second Life. Once the darling of big brands wanting to ‘go social’ it may have had a fall from grace but all the evidence points to a resurgence in virtual worlds. Here are some thoughts why.

1. Social Gaming Is Big Right Now

The social gaming economy, in 2010, is already worth $10 billion.

2. The Market for Branded Virtual Goods is Growing

‘Branded virtual goods’ market in the U.S. was estimated at $1 billion in 2009 and estimated to hit $2.1 billion in 2011. The global branded virtual goods market is estimated to be worth $150M By 2013, and the kicker, is that is estimated to only be 5% of the ‘general virtual goods’ market.

3. Convergence of Web, Mobile and TV

In this article on VentureBeat, Justin Smith, head of Inside Network and creator of the Inside Virtual Goods report is quoted as saying:

    “If 2010 was the year that virtual goods made a splash in western markets, 2011 will be the year that these markets begin to mature as the collective opportunity across social games, online games, virtual worlds, consoles, and mobile games reaches the $2 billion dollar mark.”

4. Rapid Development of Second Life Platform, Despite Slow Growth in Users

Second life contributes $0.6 billion to the general virtual goods economy. In 2006, the Second Life economy was such that Anshe Chung became a real estate millionaire. Second Life, whilst often perceived to be a place for the weird rather than edgy, has a huge in-world gaming economy and at the end of 2009 SL residents traded $100.8 million in virtual goods.

Furthermore, cash-rich creators of the virtual world, Linden Labs have been on an acquisition streak earlier this year, acquiring Avatars United (a social network for massive multiplayer gamers) and virtual goods brokers, Xstreet and OnRez. Murmurings on the SL grid, via SEW’s own virtual world correspondent Avril Korman, is that Linden Labs are making some significant strategic changes in how the Second Life platform operates and integrates with 3rd parties.

5. Location Services Present a New Opportunity

Facebook and location based social networks such as Foursquare are seen to be the biggest drivers of the social gaming economy and the virtual branded goods market in the west. Facebook recently limited the way that games on their platform were able to go viral through the community and this caused slowdown in the market in 2010. This underscores how important social networks are to the rise of this market.

6. Big Media Acquisitions

Nonetheless, huge media companies such as Disney and big gaming companies Electronic Arts are still getting on the act with their respective acquisitions of Playdom for $763 million in July of this year and Playfish at the end of 2009. More tellingly perhaps is that Microsoft has been on a secret acquisition spree for Vivacity, a competitor to Linden Labs. Conversely, Google have also been on a very public acquisition spree, buying up social gaming companies LabPixies, Slide.com, SocialDeck and also Jambool a social payment platform. What are Microsoft and Google upto? Perhaps both are acquiring talent rather than new products but both are poised to compete for living room attention by the end of the year, via the Xbox console and Google TV.

7. Recession

Kart Rider, one of the most successful ‘vehicles’ for branded virtual goods has 230M users (nearly half as many as Facebook) and over 30% of the Korean population have played it.

During my own visit to Korea in late 2008 I learned that the virtual goods market first took off in Asia due to two critical factors:

    * Low unemployment rates during the Asian financial crisis of 1998

    * Massive government investment in internet infrastructure to reboot the economy

The net effect of the financial crisis and subsequent government investment is that massive multiplayer gaming took off in Asia as the younger workforce was unable to find jobs. Due to the low spending ability of their audiences, gaming companies opted for business models based on micropayments. Unlike U.S. consumers who are willing to spend upto $60 for a computer game, companies in Japan, China and Korea (particularly the latter) charged low subscription fees for massive multiplayer games and allowed users to buy ‘in-game world’ enhancements. The model proved so successful that advertisers were quick to seize the opportunity and team up with gaming companies to deliver branded game enhancements, such as a branded Mini or BMW for go-kart for the massive multiplayer mario-kart clone Kart Rider.

Whilst it’s still unclear whether we are out of the global recession, one thing is for sure. The recent recession has triggered a strategic change in how marketers are spending money and marketing budgets have moved from traditional spending channels to online ones, through search, social networks and mobile channels. If you needed further evidence that the realtionship between big media and online marketing might be flipping on it’s head, hark back to this summer when Foursquare took over Times Square.

8. Scalable Vector Graphics, The Cloud, Rich-data Formats and Virtual World/Network as Platform

The technological push that foreshadows the trend in convergence is that it is becoming easier to deliver rich services to smaller devices and to maintain a users identity through any access point. Scalable Vector Graphics (SVG) will allow web developers to create online destinations that render beautifully and seamlessly across any device. Cloud Computing, via server side processing, is allowing companies to deliver rich personalized experiences to low powered devices. Rich-data, in turn, is going to enable web services to maintain user identities across platforms, but more importantly across social networks and services, meaning users will be able to take their personal data and connect with their real life friend network no matter what social network they are on.

Yet, the technological trend is not without it’s human inspiration. In Korea, I met Nurien Software who have been developing their own Second Life clone. Their reasons? Combining social networking with massive multiplayer gaming opened up a new dimension of communication and social interaction.

The limits of text based chat (conveying tone) and web video chat (direct 1 to 1 communication), has the potential to be transformed in a virtual environment. Put simply, indirect communication can take place in virtual world. Groups can share space and mingle together or people can participate in a group activity such as watching a film, virtually together. Perhaps more importantly, direct communication can be augmented with body language and gesture. Put another way – an avatar could kiss another. Focussing on graphics and articulating the body, avatars in Nurien’s world are incredibly lifelike, expressive and interactive.

9. Virtual Worlds & Goods Generate Value for Everyday Consumers

As our Second Life columnist, Avril Korman, eloquently wrote in her series of articles which presented an outsiders guide to Second Life, virtual worlds and goods generate real world emotional value.

On Architecture in Second Life she discusses how the lack of gravity enabled users to design their dream homes and how she has been able to build a virtuatecture business upon this, where users are able to invest in their fantasy for a minimal physical cost and, more importantly, a minimal financial cost.

On Fashion in Second Life she discusses the average person’s ability to sate the urge for a shopping spree via a virtual world, all without having to haul a dozen bags home on the subway. Micro payments for beautifully designed works of virtua-couture are proving to be rewarding experience for many denizens of virtual worlds.

On Sex, Money, Fame & Glamour in Second Life she discusses how making real money from creating and selling her own virtual goods and converting the income from Linden dollars into U.S. dollars. The low overheads of running a business in a virtual world have enabled many other people to also generate an income in a completely new and unique way. Such an opportunity is something not afforded on any other social network at the moment.

Her articles were so popular that Avril’s SL identity, Axi Kurmin, was invited as a guest to a virtual talk show to discusses some of the themes raised in her column (embedded below).

To Conclude:

The three-fold trend to follow is:

    * A growing market for virtual goods in the U.S. and across the world

    * Virtual currencies already reaching mainstream audiences via Xbox Live, Facebook credits and eventually Google’s Jambool acquisition

    * Concomitant convergence of web, mobile and TV

Due to the fact value and ‘emotional connection’ is being generated for consumers of virtual services across multiple platforms, we may eventually seethe emergence of virtual currency trading system between all the different networks. If that happens, more users can buy and sell more virtual productsand thus virtual content producers can make more real money out of virtual goods via a variety of channels.(source:searchenginewatch)


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