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估算位居美国iOS排行榜前100名应用的日均收益

发布时间:2012-11-08 16:37:19 Tags:,,

作者:Ethan Levy

任何曾经下载过xCode的游戏开发商都梦想着其应用可以登上iPhone或iPad应用排行榜之首。然而,甚少游戏可以达到这个目标,而且有关榜首游戏的真正收益终究是个迷。即使你有幸荣登榜单的第2位,你仍然无从知晓榜单首位的收益上限。

我的推测结论是:在美国位居iPhone应用榜单首位日收益可达19万9245美元,位居iPad应用榜首则可创下5万5789美元的日收益。在苹果30%的抽成之后,位居iPhone与iPad应用榜单首位所创下的日收益已各自减至13万9500美元与3万9100美元左右。

那么,对于我这样从未在iOS商店发售游戏的人,又是如何得出上述的结论呢?接下来,你将会见识到我得出这些数据所依据的一系列假设。

我的数据并不准确,但也不会太离谱

我主要利用各种公开数据源得出这一结论,我无法证明它们的可靠性,它们主要出自我的一些猜测。当然,我所提供的具体数值确实存在误差,但请相信我的思路并没有错。

同时,这种估算具有时效性。鉴于市场将销售更多的iPhone与iPad设备,以及玩家更乐意为免费增值游戏掏钱的事实,我预计,iPhone与iPad上所有应用的收入将逐渐增加。iOS市场总体收益增长不会停止,并且排行榜前100位中各个名次的价值也仍会不断攀升,直到出现某个全新平台瓦解了iOS市场。

现在,我将解释自己提出的假设,展示研究过程,分享关于美国iPhone与iPad应用排行榜前100位中各个名次的估算情况。

假设1:Supercell日均收益达50万美元

该分析结果的可靠证据来自《纽约时报》10月8日刊载的文章,文中提到芬兰工作室Supercell取得了突破性的成功。其中部分关键数据是“Supercell高管指出,其两款游戏目前可创下50万美元的日收益,除去利用iOS App Store交易渠道所需支付苹果30%的抽成外,Supercell仍可获取35万美元的日收益。”

因此,我可以假设,Supercell在9月8日至10月7日这30天内,其全球日收益大约为50万美元。

该数据的宝贵之处在于,Supercell在这30天内,其《Clash of Clan》与《Hay Day》均跃居美国iPhone与iPad应用排行榜前100位。根据App Annie提供的分析数据,我制定了一张表格,展示出这两款游戏在美国iPhone与iPad应用排行榜中所处的名次。

假设2:iOS有42%收益来自美国市场

6月20日,App Annie公司公布了一张十分实用的信息图表Game of Phones。其中部分关键数据显示,iOS的收益42%来自美国市场。我认为该数据在图表公布之后至今并未发生重大改变。

假设3:iPad应用收益约是iPhone收益的28%

为获得这一结论,我利用Asymco网站提供的苹果产品数据源。

根据这些数据,我估计,根据美国市场上的iPhone和iPad设备销量约3.83亿台,其中iPhone大约有2.747亿台,iPad约为1.082亿台。由此可得,iPad在这些设备销量中占比28%。

假如,用户在这些设备应用上投入的费用也遵循这种规律,那么每台设备应用获取的收益应与其售量成正比。因此,我认为,来自iPad设备的总收益约是iPhone设备的28%左右。

假设4:收益遵循功率法则

为了制定出可以模拟美国排行榜各个名次日收益的等式,最先,我尝试了简单的抛物线。虽然我利用了一些合理的数据(比如,榜首应用可创收13万8000美元),但该曲线仍十分平滑。我希望找到一个对比更为明显的模型。

于是,我将下面这幅图发送给大学室友及火箭科学家Morgan Hendry:

他建议我尝试功率曲线。

model-help(from quarter spiral)

model-help(from quarter spiral)

收益=常数+(系数^(100-名次))

该收益模型的创建理念是,第100名在横轴上代表数字0,第1名在横轴上代表99。而系数指代iPhone或iPad应用榜单上第100名可获取的假定值。

假设5:位居iPhone应用排行榜第100名可获利3000美元

对此,我没有确凿证据,或者相关传闻。我只是套用上述等式,然后发现一个在我看来比较正确的数字。即位居iPhone应用排行榜第100名可获利3000美元,根据上述28%的比例,我可以计算出iPad应用排行榜第100名可获利840美元。

假设6:位居榜首可获取大量收益

基于这些因素,现在我应该利用《Clash of Clan》与《Hay Day》的每日排行榜,找出一个可以证明它们能够在上述30天内达到日收益50万美元的正确系数。

经过反复试验与不断失败,我最终发现了1.313这个系数。根据以上的一系列假设,我可以得出,这两款游戏可创下50万303981美元的日收益(全球性)。答案吻合!

Revenue-graph(from quarter spiral)

Revenue-graph(from quarter spiral)

各个名次的日均收益

鉴于以上清晰呈现的一系列假设,我为美国iPhone与iPad排行榜中各个名次的每日收益绘制了如下表格。

avg daily revenue(from quarter spiral)

avg daily revenue(from quarter spiral)

我知道其它领域还存在许多比我更加擅长数学、数据挖掘以及建模的人才,因此我希望他们可以提供完善这些估算值的建议。同时,还有一些业内人士掌握着这些方面的真实数据,他们也能帮我纠正其中的某些错误。在此,我的目标不是建造一个完美的模型,而是根据公共可用数据源构造一个合理的大致范围,更重要的是,能够因此与业内人士进行相关交流。(本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译,拒绝任何不保留版权的转载,如需转载请联系:游戏邦

Guest post: How much does the #1 game on the iOS store earn in a day? $199k (I think)

by Ethan Levy

Editors note: The following guest post was written by Ethan Levy, co-founder of Quarter Spiral a new game publishing startup, and takes an educated guess at how much money the top games in the iTunes store make. His math makes sense and is within the range we’ve heard about from various industry sources. Levy is a 10-year veteran of the video games industry, having recently worked at BioWare’s San Francisco studio as producer for Dragon Age Legends.

Having a #1 grossing app on the iPhone or iPad is the dream of every game developer who ever downloaded a copy of xCode. Few games reach this lucrative goal and information on the top spot’s true value is a closely guarded secret. Even if you are lucky enough to achieve the #2 spot on the chart, there is no ceiling on what the #1 spot could possibly be worth.

My best guess? In the United States, an average day in the top grossing position for the iPhone means $199,245 in gross revenue. iPad $55,789. After Apple takes its cut, this is about $139.5k and $39.1k respectively.

How did I, who has never personally sold a game on the iOS store come to this conclusion? Follow me on an assumption laden journey as I show how I arrived at these figures.

I am probably wrong, but not that wrong

I backed into these numbers using a variety of public data sources – none of which I can personally verify – as well as a few guesses. I am certainly wrong on the exact numbers, but suspect that I am not that wrong.

Also, this estimate is very timely. I expect that total iPhone and iPad revenue will continue to grow over time as more devices are sold in the marketplace and gamers become ever more comfortable spending money in freemium games. The apex of the iOS market’s total revenue is a long way off, and the value of each of the positions in the top 100 grossing will continue to grow until a new platform comes and disrupts the iOS market.

Caveats out of the way, I will now explain my assumptions, show my work and share my estimated value of each position in the top 100 grossing chart in the US for iPhone and iPad.

Assumption #1: Supercell’s $500k days

The rosetta stone of this analysis came from a recent New York Times article on the breakout success of Finland’s Supercell. The key piece of data here is that “Supercell executives say its two games are currently grossing over $500,000 a day, which translates into about $350,000 a day in revenue for Supercell after Apple takes its 30 percent cut on transactions through its iOS App Store.”

This article was posted on Oct 8th. So, my assumption here is that Supercell’s average daily revenue worldwide was about $500,000 for the 30 day period from Sep 8th to Oct 7th.

What was extremely valuable about this data is that in the 30 day period, Supercell had two games, Clash of Clans and Hay Day, in the top 100 grossing charts for both iPhone and iPad in the US. Using App Annie, I made a table of Clash of Clan’s iPhone and iPad rankings and Hay Day’s iPhone and iPad ranking in the US top grossing chart.

Assumption #2: 42% of iOS revenue comes from the US

On Jun 20, App Annie released a very helpful infographic, Game of Phones. The key piece of data here is that 42% of iOS revenue comes from the US. I assume that this number has not changed significantly since it was published.

Assumption #3: iPad revenue is 28% of iPhone revenue

To arrive at this conclusion, I used Apple product data sourced from the website Asymco.

Using the Asymco data, the estimate is sales of 383 million iPhones and iPads split between ~274.7 million iPhones and ~108.2 million iPads. Therefore, iPads represent 28% of the total pool of devices.

I assume that spend on these devices follow the same patterns and that revenue per device category is relative to number of devices. Therefore, I assume that total revenue from iPad devices are 28% of total revenue from iPhone devices.

Assumption #4: Revenue follows a power law

In deciding on an equation to use to model the average daily revenue per US chart position, I initially tried a simple parabola. Although I was able to find numbers that felt reasonable (#1 position grosses $138k) the curve looked too round. I wanted to find a model that had a really sharp knee in it.

So, I sent this picture to my college roommate and bona fide rocket scientist Morgan Hendry:

Morgan suggested that I try out a power curve.

Revenue = Constant + (Coefficient^(100-Rank))

The idea here is that in modeling revenue, Rank 100 would represent 0 on the X axis and Rank 1 would represent 99 on the X axis. Coefficient is the assumed value of the #100 spot on either the iPhone or iPad chart.

Assumption #5: The #100 app makes $3,000 on the iPhone

For this, I have no data to back it up. Not even hearsay. I simply played around with the equation until I found a number that felt right. That number was $3,000 for the iPhone, and using the 28% ration above, $840 on the iPad.

Assumption #6: Revenue is pooled very sharply at the top

With all the other factors in place, it was time to find a Coefficient that, using my daily ranking tables for Clash of Clans and Hay Day, would give me about $500,000 in average daily revenue (worldwide) for the two Supercell games for the 30 day period cited above.

With some trial and error, I found a coefficient of 1.131. Using all my assumptions cited above, this resulted in an average daily revenue (worldwide) of $505,039.81 for the two Supercell games. Bingo!

What’s in a rank?

Given all the assumptions clearly laid out above, I generated the following table for the estimated average daily value of each position in the US top grossing chart for iPhone and iPad:

I know there are many out there who are more experienced than me at math, data mining and modeling, so I expect there to be many suggestions on how to improve these estimates. Also, there are real people with real data that will help inform these estimates. The goal here was not to build a perfect model, but arrive at a reasonable ballpark given publicly available data sources and more importantly, to start a conversation. If you would like to contribute to these estimates in a meaningful way, please reach out to us @QuarterSpiral or by emailing info@quarterspiral.com.(source:insidesocialgames)


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