1）Gartner最新报告预测，2012年全球移动应用下载量将近460亿次，几乎是2011年时250亿次下载量的两倍；其中免费应用下载量占比将达89%，有90%付费应用售价低于3美元。

预计到2016年，手机应用下载量将接近3100亿次，其中免费应用将占比93%。Gartner预测到2016年，IAP模式在所有应用收益中将占比41%；届时售价为99美分至2.99美元的应用在所有付费应用下载量中将占比96%。

apps downloads(from Gartner)

2011年采用IAP模式的应用仅占比5%，所占收益仅为10%，但预计到2016年采用IAP的应用所占比例将增至30%，所占收益将达41%。

尽管Android应用商店大量涌现，微软Windows Phone Marketplace也在持续发展（目前已有10万款应用），RIM等其他公司也在不断推广自己的应用平台，但最受欢迎的仍是苹果App Store。不过该应用商店影响力将逐渐下滑。

iOS App Store今年应用下载量将超过210亿次，增幅达74%，但增长率低于整体应用下载量，后者2011年至2012年增幅将达83%。目前苹果仍占据最大应用市场份额，App Store应用数量在所有应用商店中占比25%。

2）尼尔森5月份报告称半数以上美国手机用户持有智能手机，最新报告则显示这一数据已从50.4%增长至55.5%。目前已有58%的美国青少年（13-17岁）手机用户拥有智能手机，这一比例远超去年的36%。

smartphone-share(from Neilsen)

报告称青少年是智能手机用户增长最为迅速的群体，但智能手机覆盖率最高群体是25-34岁的年轻用户，其智能手机用户比例高达74%，超过去年7月份时的59%。

Android在美国智能手机市场中持续领先，有51.9%智能手机用户以及58.6%最近三个月购买手机的用户选择的是Android设备。iPhone在智能手机用户所占份额为34%，黑莓占比仅为8%，低于5月份时的11.6%。

3）电脑安全技术公司ESET最近报告指出，36%的英国家长不知道自己的手机感染了病毒，34%表示不确定手机是否感染病毒；29%家长不知道子女的手机可能已经被黑客盯上。

报告称英国小孩一般在10岁左右就拥有手机和电子邮件帐号，而拥有Facebook等社交网络帐号的平均年龄为11岁，这意味着有大量儿童用户的网络帐号可能被窃取，并导致其个人信息外泄。

4）市场调研公司EEDAR最近报告指出，手机游戏开发者不可仅关注在哪些设备上销售游戏，还要考虑用户所持有设备的使用年龄。

据分析师Jesse Divnich所称，如果考虑到设备升级、替换、流传使用等情况，开发者就会难以确定自己到底还剩多少潜在用户，因为游戏的新功能可能无法与某些用户手中的设备相兼容。

smartphone age(from EEDAR)

EEDAR创造了一个反映智能手机使用年龄的模型，并指出iPhone 3GS或更新的设备，以及同一时期的Android设备占据了目前88%的移动游戏市场份额，EEDAR认为这是游戏覆盖大众市场的一个最佳切入点，今年前100名热销游戏几乎都符合这个标准。

但铁杆游戏玩家一般都会抢鲜接触新设备和技术，如果开发者的用户定位是RPG或射击游戏等类型的硬核玩家，那就最好锁定使用年龄在2年以内的智能手机。

5）据Venturebeat报道，Pacific Crest分析师最近报告指出上个月有“相当数量”的移动运营零售商的黑莓手机销量为0，各个零售商的黑莓设备存货量也在逐月下降。

rim-sold-zero-blackberrys(from venturebeat)

Baird Equity Research最近调查结果显示，即使BlackBerry 10问世也难挽RIM颓势，开发者对BlackBerry 10的支持率已从原来的4.6分跌至3.8分（满分为10），仅比对惠普webOS平台的支持率多一分，比Windows Phone 7多0.4分。

此外，黑莓移动网络流量同比去年也下降了25%，这并不意味着其用户活跃性下降，而是其设备使用率正在走下坡路。

6）据pocketgamer报道，用户获取平台Chartboost高管Clay Kellogg最近表示，iPhone 5可能采用更大的屏幕，但对游戏开发者来说，这次苹果发布会最重要的消息应该与iOS 6有关。

预计iOS 6将允许用户在无需离开某款应用或游戏的情况下访问iTunes App Store，并且将取消下载免费游戏时的登录要求。

ios-6(from techwikasta.com)

这些变化看似无足轻重，但却有助于简化应用搜索和购买流程，缩短了用户下载免费游戏的步骤，并且更便于开发者交叉推广游戏，因为用户可以直接在当前应用或游戏中下载或购买其推广的内容。

7）应用营销公司Fiksu针对苹果即将发布新设备的消息预测，在新产品发售当天将有1000万用户涌向苹果商店购买新iPhone，iOS忠实用户获取成本有可能因为新iPhone而下降10%。

据Piper Jaffray预测，有71%的iPhone 3GS用户打算购买iPhone 5，iPhone 4S用户的这一比例为64%，有22%的Android用户有此计划，而黑莓用户的这一比例则是38%。

自2007年苹果发布iPhone以来，iPhone手机在美国总销量已达8500万部。行业分析师预测到2012年底，苹果将可售出多达2300万部的iPhone 5。

iPhone5 infographic(from Fiksu)

（本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译，拒绝任何不保留版权的转载，如需转载请联系：游戏邦）

1）Free Apps Account For 89% Of All Downloads; Most Of The Rest Under $3; iOS Store Biggest Of Them All

INGRID LUNDEN

The mobile app market, currently still led by app trailblazer Apple, is continuing to grow at a rapid pace: according to new research from Gartner there will be nearly 46 billion mobile app downloads made this year, nearly double the 25 billion downloads in 2011. Among those downloads, free will continue to reign supreme: 89% of those downloads worldwide will cost nothing. That is also appearing to have a knock-on effect on apps that are sold for a price: 90% of paid apps will cost less than $3.

These are pricing trends that will only become stronger. By 2016, Gartner is predicting the the mobile app market will see almost 310 billion downloads, with 93% of those free apps. These numbers point to growing opportunities for those companies that help app developers monetize their apps in other ways: not just through mobile advertising, but also through developing models for in-app purchases, subscriptions and other ways to get users to pay later for content. Indeed, in-app purchases, Gartner predicts, will drive 41% of all app revenues by 2016.

And just as free apps will continue to grow in popularity, so will the frequency of lower-cost paid apps. Apps that cost between 99 cents and$2.99 will account for 96% of all paid downloads by 2016, the analysts predict.

The rise of in-app purchases is a strong one: apps featuring IAP accounted for just 5% of all apps in 2011, accounting for only 10% of revenue. The number of apps with IAP will grow to 30% by 2016, when they will contribute 41% of revenues.

Which platform dominates? While we have seen the rise of multiple Android stores (perhaps the most popular being from Google and Amazon), as well as Microsoft making a big push on its Marketplace (now at 100,000 apps) and others like RIM also promoting its app storefront, Apple — creators of the App Store concept — will continue to be the most popular.

However, Apple’s popularity is gradually diminishing. Apple’s iOS App Store will account for more than 21 billion of the 45.6 billion mobile app downloads this year, Gartner says. That’s a rise of 74% — meaning that it’s not outpacing the growth of app downloads overall, which will have grown by 83% between 2011 and 2012.

“Apple’s market share is the largest, considering its App Store accounts for 25 percent of available apps in all stores,” writes Brian Blau, research director at Gartner.

But he also points out that growth, in fact, is being led by apps on other platforms: “The number of apps available is driven by an increasing number of stores in the market today that include platform owners, device vendors, communication service providers (CSPs) and others who want to offer core mobile app services. These stores will see their combined share of total downloads increase, but demand for apps overall will still be dominated by Apple, Google and Microsoft.”

Gartner also notes that Amazon is an example of how third-party stores also have a role to play in the game. Amazon’s Appstore and Facebook’s App Center are two that have stood out here. Gartner believes that Facebook in particular could become a “powerful competitor” to the platform stores themselves, “due to its strong brand and leading position in social networking and gaming.”

That, of course, is predicated on people wanting to continue using apps with Facebook social integration in them, which is a prerequisite for apps to be offered via Facebook today.

Also noted are the rise of other independent Android stores, which have come out to cater to the proliferation of official and forked Android devices on the market. In China, that trend has been particularly strong, notes Sandy Shen, a research director at Gartner, because Google Play has a “lack of presence”:

“In China, there is a boom market of independent Android stores, due to the lack of presence of Google Play and ‘weak’ stores from [carriers]. We expect to see more new entrants to the market, aiming to deepen relationships with their customers and/or to capture some of this growth market.”（source:techcrunch）

2）Nielsen: Majority Of Mobile U.S. Teens Now Own Smartphones

SARAH PEREZ

Nielsen announced in May that more than half of U.S. mobile owners now owned smartphones. Today that metric has grown again, going from 50.4% to 55.5%. But the more interesting figure in the firm’s release of July 2012 data is not this incremental increase — although it’s notable as an indication of just how fast the smartphone market is growing. It’s the fact that today, the majority of mobile-owning American teens (58%) now own smartphones. That’s up from roughly a third (36%) in 2011.

Teens (ages 13 to 17), says Nielsen, are the fastest-growing segment of smartphone owners, but they’re not the largest*. That claim goes to the young adults: 74% of 25-34-year-olds now own smartphones, up from 59% in July 2011, making this age group the highest among smartphone penetration in the U.S.

Traditionally, parents have held off on buying teenagers phones for a variety of reasons: The phones were expensive; the data plans were even more pricey; and, perhaps in some cases, parents didn’t feel that the kids really needed a “fancy” device like a smartphone. (After all, all kids do is text, right?) How times have changed. Recently launched shared family data plans have made the price sensitivity surrounding smartphone monthly bills easier for families to handle, even in a down economy. And many of these plans are still new — the further impact of their adoption has not fully been realized. Additionally, Android-based devices have targeted the low-end of the market with cheaper — in some cases, even sub-$100 — devices. Older Apple iPhones sold by carriers and on secondary marketplaces, meanwhile, more than suffice for many teens and are priced lower than the new models.

Nielsen’s data again confirms that Android handsets continue to lead the smartphone market (in terms of OS share), with both the majority of smartphone owners (51.9%) and recent acquirers (58.6%), meaning those who obtained their handsets within the last three months. Apple’s iPhone came in second, with a 34% share of smartphone owners, and Blackberry continued to drop. It’s now at an 8% share of the U.S. smartphone market, down from 11.6% in May.（source:techcrunch）

3）Average ten-year-old Brit owns mobile phone and email account

by Zen Terrelonge

But 29 per cent of parents are oblivious hackers can target their children’s devices.

Mobile malware and hacking reports are quite common at the moment, but computer security firm ESET reports that 36 per cent of parents in the UK didn’t know their phones could be infected with viruses, while 34 per cent were unsure.

Given that, even fewer parents are aware that their children’s devices can be at risk from hackers, with 29 per cent in the dark.

Child protection is currently a hot topic and The Cloud has vowed its wi-fi services will bar all adult content starting from mid-October, a result of the current UK digital porn blocking campaign.

The ESET results also show the average child will have a mobile and email account by the age of ten, with social networks Facebook etc to follow at 11, meaning that a large number of these portals are open to ID theft and the loss of personal info.

Quinton Watts, security expert at ESET UK, said: “Hackers and threats alike are becoming more advanced, and the advent of smart devices has created a new avenue for hackers to do their ‘dirty work’.

“Nevertheless, there are precautions that can be taken. Just as parents will protect their children in the physical world, they need to do the same in the cyber world and ensure that all of their children’s devices are as secure as possible. This will help minimise risk and will give parents peace of mind.”（source:mobile-ent）

4）Mobile developers: How to hit the “sweet spot to penetrate mass market”

By James Brightman

EEDAR tells us that developers need to consider the age of the smartphone, not just sell through of devices

Mobile gaming, if you ask most executives in the business, is one of the fastest growing sectors of the industry and is ripe with opportunity. Creating a mobile title among thousands of apps hardly guarantees success, however, and knowing how to get to the mass market is key. Market research firm EEDAR has some advice.

The firm, which is in the process of publishing a four-part series on the mobile and tablet gaming markets, explained to GamesIndustry International that understanding how to reach a large audience is key. “For the traditional HD markets, the installed bases are well understood, but within the mobile markets you can’t simply rely on smartphone sell through reports to properly size markets,” noted analyst Jesse Divnich.

“When taking into account upgrades, replacements, device hand me downs, etc. it can be extremely difficult to determine exactly how many potential users you are leaving behind by including that new software feature that isn’t compatible with all smartphones,” he added.

To better understand the overall potential market size, EEDAR has created a model to look at smartphone age, rather than specific models. Currently, “88 percent of the mobile gaming market owns an iPhone 3GS or newer (or Android equivalent), which we currently consider the market sweet spot for games looking to penetrate the mass market – nearly all of the top 100 selling games this year fit this criteria,” Divnich continued.

As you might expect, though, more avid gamers tend to own newer technology, so if you’re planning a more advanced mobile game with core sensibilities then it may be fine to go after newer technology.

“If a developer is targeting core gamers such as those in the RPG or Shooter genre, we found the sweet spot to be targeting smartphones 2 years or newer, as our most recent consumer survey has found that fans of the core genres are first to adopt or upgrade their smartphones, in addition to preferring high graphical performance as a key influence to purchase,” Divnich explained.

He added, “Of course, it isn’t all bad if you decide to push the performance boundary at the expense of potential consumers since eventually everyone will own a compatible smartphone. If done properly, your title can be the standard in performance excellence when new hardware launches. However, one would have to be prepared for a revenue campaign that is more long-tailed than front-loaded.”

“It really comes down to the type and style of game you are making, but I would encourage developers that are pushing the boundaries of core gaming on smartphones to be less worried about ensuring your game is compatible with all smartphones in the market.”

As for the tablet market specifically, EEDAR’s advice is a bit less concrete since tablet adoption rates are still being evaluated and the majority of tablet owners are first time buyers.（source:gamesindustry）

5）Many mobile retailers sold ZERO BlackBerrys last month, says analyst

Jolie O’Dell

RIM’s decline is news to exactly no one, but today, Pacific Crest analyst James Faucette sent out a research note with a tidbit more dire than anything we’ve hear so far: a “meaningful number” of mobile carrier retailers sold zero BlackBerry units last month.

“Ouch” doesn’t begin to sum it up.

Faucette’s research shows no real changes between July and August sales numbers for BlackBerry units, but for whatever reason, Pacific Crest’s sell-through checks showed dramatically lower inventory at stores month-over-month.

“We believe that current run rates are roughly one-fifth of those we saw in the United States just eight months ago,” reads Faucette’s partial statement in All Things D.

“Even assuming that BlackBerry 10 devices roll out on time starting in 2013, we believe the clear evidence of shelf-space pressure our checks have detected does not bode well for the company in the longer term.”

And a recent survey from Baird Equity Research shows that BlackBerry 10 won’t likely be the revival event RIM is hoping for, either. On a ten-point scale, developer outlook for BlackBerry 10 fell from 4.6 to 3.8, just one point higher than developer interest in HP’s semi-dead webOS and .4 points above interest in the already-obsolete Windows Phone 7.

The RIM devices are also seeing a meaningful dip in consumers’ hands. Year over year, BlackBerrys browsing around the mobile web have showed a 25 percent decrease — that means not less activity per user, but fewer devices.（source:venturebeat）

6）Apple planning major app discovery and purchasing overhaul with iOS 6

by Keith Andrew

Ahead of Apple’s expected iPhone 5 unveiling in San Francisco, we’ve received word that it’ll be iOS announcements that will actually dominate the headlines from a developer perspective.

According to Clay Kellogg – formally of AdMob, but now chief revenue officer at user acquisition platform Chartboost – the only major upgrade on the hardware front will be the iPhone 5′s larger screen.

The real meat of the press conference, he claims, will be iOS 6.

No hard announcements

“Apple’s next iPhone may have a larger screen, but the changes announced tomorrow that will have the most impact on game developers won’t come in the form factor, but in iOS 6,” Kellogg said in an email.

“We expect iOS 6 to allow users to access the iTunes App Store without leaving an app or game, and to remove the need to sign in when downloading a free game.

“Both of these changes remove steps from the app discovery and purchasing process – removing one step to downloading free games and also allowing developers to cross promote their games or advertise others’ games without asking the players to leave the game they are currently playing in order to download or purchase a new one.”

Kellogg claims such changes may seem “trivial”, but that “removing small steps in the game discovery process like these can make a world of difference with users and their purchasing decisions.”

You can read what the PocketGamer.biz Mobile Gaming Mavens are looking to see from iPhone 5 here.（source:pocketgamer）

7）INFOGRAPHIC: 10m people will buy the iPhone 5 on September 21st

by Zen Terrelonge

App marketers expected to have a Christmas-like rush of downloads this month.

Apple is set to release the iPhone 5 tomorrow, and Fiksu says that spells a bumper pay day ahead for brands looking to market their apps.

The app marketing company has predicted what’s in store for the next-gen device based on iPhone 4S sales, and reckons 10m people will flock to stores on September 21st to get their hands on the new model.

Meanwhile, the cost to acquire a loyal app user (someone that opens an app at least three times) fell by ten per cent and Fiksu is billing the results as Christmas in September.（source:mobile-ent）