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股票禁售期将至 Zynga恐面临更艰难处境

发布时间:2012-08-02 15:19:56 Tags:,,,

作者:Chris Morris

上周对于Zynga来说是糟糕的一周。收益不足及未来走向不明朗导致公司股票下滑40%,一时间唱衰Zynga的言论此起彼伏。

虽然现在发表这些企业讣告为时过早,但该公司在扭转时局前确实很可能面临动荡时期。

stock down arrow from  scalperthoughts.blogspot.com

stock down arrow from scalperthoughts.blogspot.com

在积极找准发展方向的过程中,Zynga面临系列严重障碍。社交游戏领域逐步放缓脚,公司旗舰游戏的用户数量日益减少。投资者清楚这点,他们非常担忧,但迫在眉睫的最大障碍是,新一轮员工股票禁售期即将结束。

8月16日,1.5亿只股票的禁售期就终止,这意味着员工就能够行使他们的股票权利。虽然如今股票对大家来说不再是意外之财,但有总比完全没有强。显然有些员工会届时会将股票套现。

在其前IPO时期,Zynga以股票期权作为主要的人员招募工具。不少开发者由传统主机领域转投于此不是因为他们对Zynga的未来真的很有信心(游戏邦注:虽然这无疑是部分诱因所在),而在于公司上市后他们能够迅速致富。

在当时,Zynga的股票激增似乎是毫无疑问的事情。但事情已发生改变。考虑进行职业转变的员工多半在等待机会,希望在离开前兑现其中某些期权。

更棘手的是Zynga的浮动股。浮动股是指能够进行交易的股票数量。Zynga上市时只有1亿只股票。在二次股票发行及三次禁售期期满之间,股票数量已蹿升至6亿股。待到最近的禁售期于8月终止,浮动数量将达到近8亿股。

较大浮点数倾向让公司变得更加稳定,但在Zynga,情况开始转变成供大于求,这会进一步打击股票价格。

毫无疑问,公司股票价格正大幅下跌。危言耸听者称,Zynga股票如今的售价约是THQ股票的一半。但这是个不公平的比较,因为THQ刚进行1:10的反向股票拆股。但Zynga的情况和Majesco非常接近,后者在5年多里股价都未超过4美元(游戏邦注:截止本周二下午,Majesco的股价是1.83美元,而Zynga是2.92美元)。

除新期权将入驻市场外,糟糕结果还带来常规法律诉讼。某加利福尼亚公司正在寻求集体诉讼,控诉Zynga隐瞒用户及创收数据下滑的消息。这些诉讼案件多半都没有任何结果,但它们会分散注意力,对股市产生消极影响。

公司本周二做出令人匪夷所思的决定,削减了首席运营官(前EA/微软元老)John Schappert在游戏业务上的职权,这是他们近年来最愚蠢的举措——这可能带来更多的股票骚乱。投资者也许想要寻找替罪羔羊,但Schappert是公司最精通游戏的主管之一。Mark Pincus(游戏邦注:现负责监督游戏开发)没有相关经验,事情多半会进一步恶化,这将进一步打击他的领导信心。

Zynga的混乱局面并不完全是该公司的错。公司受Facebook IPO拖累(Facebook腾空降至股票市场后,曾一度导致所有公开发售活动突然中止)。在Zynga找到替代方式,不再如此依赖于公司最大合作伙伴前,其股票仍将处于困境中。该公司目前正在创建Zynga.com平台,积极拉拢网站的开发伙伴,但这要取得成果依然需要一段时间。

移动市场是另一创收来源,但Zynga尚未把握其中诀窍。在公司今年初斥巨资收购OMGPOP后(《Draw Something》的运作随后开始下滑),投资者开始对行业的并购活动持怀疑态度。

Zynga是处于过渡之中的公司,且这一过程不会很快结束。假设公司没有面临急剧的人才流失问题,能够正确把握发展方向,尤其在是移动领域,那么它将再次恢复雄风。但在此之前,等待投资者(包括希望手中期权能够带来意外收获的开发人员)的仍将是崎岖之路。(本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译,拒绝任何不保留版权的转载,如需转载请联系:游戏邦

Zynga: The worst may be yet to come

by Chris Morris

Last week was an ugly one for Zynga. An earnings shortfall and reduced guidance for the coming fiscal year resulted in a 40 percent drop in the company’s stock, which brought out the doomsayers.

Those corporate obituaries are premature, but the company is likely to face some even rockier times before there’s much chance of things getting better.

Zynga is facing a tremendous series of hurdles as it struggles to course correct. The social gaming space is slowing down — and player numbers for the company’s flagship games are declining. Investors know this, and they’re rightfully worried, but the most looming hurdle is the coming expiration of a new round of employee stock options.

On August 16, the lock-up period on 150 million shares will expire, meaning employees will be able to exercise their shares. While the stock is hardly a windfall for anyone these days, some money is better than none. And it’s a safe bet some employees will cash out.

Zynga used stock options as a major recruitment tool in its pre-IPO days. Developers were lured from the traditional console industry not so much because they believed in the company’s future (though that was certainly part of the appeal), but because of the temptation of sudden wealth when the company went public.

At the time, a Zynga stock explosion seemed a sure thing. Things change, though. And employees who are thinking about another career shift are likely waiting for the chance to cash out some of those options before they go.

Complicating things is Zynga’s float — and forgive me a little finance gobbledygook here. A stock’s float is the number of shares that are available for trading. When Zynga went public, there were only 100 million shares available. Between a secondary stock offering and the expiration of three lock-up periods since then, the number has jumped to over 600 million. When the latest lock-up period expires in August, that will bring the float to nearly 800 million shares.

Larger floats tend to make a company less volatile in general, but at Zynga, it’s starting to look like the supply for company shares is outstripping demand, and that could batter the stock price even further.

And make no mistake, the stock is being hammered. Alarmists point out that Zynga shares are now trading at a price that’s nearly half of THQ’s stock. That’s an unfair comparison, though, since THQ just completed a 10-for-1 reverse stock split. But Zynga is getting very close to the territory of Majesco, which hasn’t topped $4 per share in over five years. (By mid-day Tuesday, the stock was trading at $1.83 per share, versus Zynga’s $2.92.)

Beyond the new options about to hit the market, the poor results are bringing about the usual lawsuits. A California firm is seeking class action status in its accusations that the company failed to disclose the decline in users and revenue. These suits rarely go anywhere, but they’re a distraction and tend to weigh down the stock.

And Tuesday’s baffling decision by the company to yank game oversight from chief operating officer (and EA/Microsoft vet) John Schappert may be the company’s most bone-headed move in years — and could cause even more stock turbulence. Investors may want a scapegoat, but Schappert is one of the most game-savvy executives the company has. Mark Pincus, who will now oversee game development, doesn’t have the experience, and should things slip further, it will further undermine confidence in his leadership abilities.

Zynga’s tailspin isn’t entirely its fault. The company was dragged down by Facebook’s IPO (which pretty much put a halt to all public offerings after the social network landed with a thud). And until Zynga finds a way to become less dependent on its biggest partner, the stock will suffer. It’s in the process of building up Zynga.com and is actively recruiting development partners for the site, but it’s going to take a while for that to bear fruit.

The mobile market is another source of revenue, but Zynga hasn’t quite learned the trick of mastering it. And after the bloated acquisition of OMGPOP earlier this year (and the subsequent underperformance of Draw Something), investors are going to be skeptical of any buyouts in that space.

Zynga is a company in transition, one it didn’t expect to go through quite this quickly. (And investors certainly weren’t planning on having to weather this so soon after the IPO.) Assuming it doesn’t suffer a major talent drain and it’s able to course correct, especially in the mobile space, it could once again be the powerhouse it was a short while ago. But until then, investors — including those developers who hope to see their options bring them a windfall — are likely to be in for a bumpy ride.(Source:gamasutra


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