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每日观察:关注三分之二应用首年下载量不足1000次(6.13)

1)据Asymco苹果分析师Horace Dediu报告预测,2012年苹果iTunes App Store收益将达43亿美元,应用程序将超过音乐,成为iTunes最大的收益来源。

Dediu根据iTunes目前的4亿用户帐号,App Store总下载量达300亿次,苹果向开发者支付的50亿美元收益来计算,指出App Store目前每日应用下载量超过4950万次,平均每款应用(包括免费应用)售价为0.24美元。

download rates(from Asymco)

download rates(from Asymco)

如果用户下载频率保持不变,预计2012年App Store下载量将达186.7亿次,销售额将近43亿美元;届时苹果将从30%抽成中创收13亿美元,并向开发者支付30亿美元。

cumulative payments(from Asymco)

cumulative payments(from Asymco)

Dediu称iTunes目前每天歌曲下载量为1200万次,苹果在音乐销售额中的提成可能更少,但苹果至今已向唱片公司支付收益超过120亿美元。

2)市场调研公司Canalys最近报告指出,由于主流应用商店检索功能不够完善,缺乏产品曝光渠道,有三分之二的应用发布首年的下载量不足1000次,甚至有相当部分的应用完全没有任何下载量。

有报告显示,在过去16周中美国应用商店前100名付费榜单中,有近半数产品稳居该榜单位置,也就是说这些精英应用已经牢踞榜单前列席位,小型开发商难以从中突围。

Canalys指出,主流应用商店应该设法提升社交推荐、排名算法,个性化推荐等功能,并以更创新的方式呈现富有特色的本土化内容,否则开发者可能转向GetJar、亚马逊Appstore或Facebook App Center等第三方应用商店,从而导致主流应用商店的用户粘性、信赖感下降,错失许多销售机会。

3)eMarketer最新数据预测,2012年iPad美国用户将增长至5320万,增幅达90%,但低于2011年的143.9%,预计未来几年iPad用户增长率仍会持续下降,到2015年增幅将降至12%以下,届时将有三分之一以上的美国网络用户拥有iPad。

ipad web users(from info.padalog.com)

ipad web users(from info.padalog.com)

从所有平板电脑来看,2012年底平板电脑用户在所有网络用户中所占比例将达29.1%;值得注意的是,增长速度最快的用户为12岁以下及65岁以上群体,原因是这两类群体目前的平板电脑使用率相对较低。

今年男性平板电脑用户将占54%,而亚洲平板电脑用户比例最高,达到26.2%。

4)据gamasutra报道,Halfbrick游戏《Jetpack Joyride》及Playdead游戏《Limbo》近日在苹果WWDC大会上获得“苹果设计大奖”这一殊荣。

Apple-design-awards-app-ios-mac(from macworld.com.au)

Apple-design-awards-app-ios-mac(from macworld.com.au)

该奖项每年都会挑选出在Mac PC、iPhone和iPad表现突出的作品,在今年获奖的10个作品中,游戏占据了5个席位。

《Jetpack Joyride》及迪士尼游戏《Where’s My Water》获得iPhone苹果设计大奖,而《Limo》和Eidos Monstreal游戏《杀出重围3:人类革命》则是Mac版本的赢家;Reality Twist的iPhone/iPad游戏《daWindci》则获得学生开发者设计大奖。

5)Kantar Worldpanel ComTech最近发布数据显示,Android在欧洲五国(游戏邦注:即英国、法国、意大利、德国、西班牙)表现强劲,今年5月份所占市场份额已达60%(去年5月份为38.8%)。

其中意大利市场份额最低,占比47.4%,而西班牙则高达78.4%。Android设备过去12周在英国销量占比52.5%,其中三星设备销量占比56%,HTC占比29%。

smartphone OS-major market (from Kantar Worldpanel ComTech)

smartphone OS-major market (from Kantar Worldpanel ComTech)

smartphone OS-major market 2(from Kantar Worldpanel ComTech)

smartphone OS-major market (from Kantar Worldpanel ComTech)

德国市场对手机销售补贴最低,因此其智能手机售价在欧洲最为昂贵,这就给低端Android设备创造了许多机会,例如华为智能手机今年在德国销量就将近20万部。

在欧洲五国排名第二的手机操作系统是苹果iOS,它在英国占比21%,在西班牙仅3%;

RIM市场份额持续下滑,在美国市场份额从去年的9.2%降至今年的5.2%,在英国也从20.6%降至12.8%。Symbian也同样如此,在西班牙市场份额已从去年的42%骤降至今年的6.2%。

Windows Phone 7在多数主流市场的份额均超过3%,在德国和美国市场份额最高,分别达3.7%和3.6%。

6)手机游戏开发商Bolt Creative日前宣布与Funko合作推出基于《口袋上帝》角色Pygmies的系列毛线玩具和乙烯树脂雕像,这些产品预计于今年9月发布。

pygmy(from arixystix.com)

pygmy(from arixystix.com)

7)据insidemobileapps报道,独立开发商Nimblebit最新游戏《Pocket Planes》将于6月14日发布iOS通用版本。

Pocket Planes(from insidemobileapps)

Pocket Planes(from insidemobileapps)

该游戏延续了先前热作《Tiny Tower》的复古美术风格,但其玩法复杂度高于《Tiny Tower》,要求玩家建立并运营自己的航空公司,不过其中的社交元素比《Tiny Tower》更具吸引力,并绑定了Game Center和Twitter功能,支持玩家与好友挑战游戏并分享内容。(本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译,拒绝任何不保留版权的转载,如需转载请联系:游戏邦

1)iOS apps to generate over $4B in 2012 sales, overtake iTunes music – Asymco

Kathleen De Vere

Apple’s iTunes App Store is on track to hit a run rate of $4.3 billion in 2012, according to Apple analyst Horace Dediu of Asymco, who argues apps have likely overtaken music as the largest source of Apple’s gross income from the iTunes store.

Dediu bases his predictions on the three figures Apple revealed at WWDC — 30 billion apps downloaded to date, $5 billion paid to developers and 400 million registered iTunes accounts.

According to Dediu’s calculations, consumers are now downloading more than 49.5 million apps a day. With Dediu estimating average price of an app sitting at $0.24 (including free apps), one can roughly extrapolate the annual number of iTunes app downloads, and therefore the App Store’s annual run rate, assuming the number of downloads holds reasonably steady.

If consumers continue to download apps at the same rate, they will download 18.67 billion apps this year, generating approximately $4.3 billion in sales. Of that, Apple will pay out about $3 billion to developers and keep $1.3 billion as part of its 30 percent share of gross app revenues.

By comparison, Dediu calculates consumers are downloading about 12 million songs a day, with Apple likely taking a smaller cut of the revenues from music sales. He estimates Apple has already paid more than $12 billion to record labels, compared to the $5 billion paid to developers.(source:insidemobileapps

2)Two-thirds of apps fail to hit 1,000 downloads in first year

by James Nouch

A combination of app store complacency and a lack of innovation when it comes to discoverability means up to two thirds of apps fail to pass the 1,000 downloads mark in their first year, claims research firm Canalys.

As such, the company’s latest report said the primary concern of most developers is an inability to get their apps noticed.

Earning their keep

“We estimate that up to two-thirds of the apps in leading consumer app store catalogues receive fewer than 1,000 downloads in their first year, and a significant proportion of those get none at all,” said senior analyst Tim Shepherd.

“Many high-quality apps never get the attention they deserve.”
App store providers typically rely on charts and featured spots to aid app discovery, but Canalys claims these tools are wholly inadequate.

Indeed, a study of app store charts in the US over a 16 week period revealed almost half of all the titles in the top 100 paid lists were there thoughout the entire run.

In short, the elite apps are locking out the top positions, and platform holders are allowing the bulk of smaller studios to fall behind.

Helping hand

“Store providers need to do more to earn developers’ support,” argued chief analyst Adam Duam.

“They must seek out better tools, such as improved social recommendation facilities, algorithms that deliver intelligent, personalised suggestions and more innovative ways of presenting localized featured content.”

And what are the consequences for app store providers if they fail to heed this advice?

“The poor quality of tools threatens app store providers’ control of the discovery process. Consumers appreciate the convenience app stores provide, but they are willing to look further afield to find what they need.

“If enough frustrated developers turn first to third-party independent stores and discovery portals, such as GetJar, Amazon’s App Store or Facebook’s new App Center, consumers could be encouraged away from the native app store clients on their devices.”

Canalys argues that, even if an external portal sends traffic back to the native store to start a download or complete the purchase, “the damage has been done.”

“The store provider has lost consumer engagement, trust, and opportunities to up-sell and cross-sell.”(source:pocketgamer

3)53.2m Americans will own an iPad in 2012

by Zen Terrelonge

That’s three quarters of all Stateside tablet users.

The data from eMarketer shows Apple’s iPad is still the top dog of the tablet world, as American iPad users will rise to 53.2 million this year. That’s a 90 per cent increase – as existing users upgrade, and new buyers join Apple.

That said, the growth is down from the 143.9 per cent in 2011, and it’s set to decline in coming years, with usage rising by under 12 per cent in 2015 when more than a third of the US web users will own one of the devices.

In comparison, the tablet market on the whole is set to reach 29.1 per cent of internet users by the end of 2012.

Interestingly, the fastest-growing tablet users will be among under-12s and over-65s, which is due to the lack of adoption seen from the generations thus far.

Results show that 54 per cent of this year’s tablet use will come from men, with Asians the most likely to use the tech at 26.2 per cent.(source:mobile-ent

4)Jetpack Joyride, Limbo win Apple Design Awards

by Eric Caoili

Halfbrick’s Jetpack Joyride and Playdead’s Limbo have both taken home Apple Design Awards at the platform holder’s Worldwide Developers Conference.

Each year, the competition recognizes standout releases on its platforms, which include Mac PCs, iPhones, and iPads. Of the ten winners selected this year, five are games.

Jetpack Joyride and Disney’s Where’s My Water won awards in the iPhone category, while Limbo and Eidos Montreal’s Deus Ex: Human Revolution (published to Mac by Feral Interactive) won awards for their Mac editions.

Reality Twist’s iPhone and iPad title daWindci received an award for the Student Developer category. The full list of 2012 Apple Design Awards winners is available here. (source:gamasutra

5)Android’s collective share in Euro big five hits 60 per cent

by Tim Green

Skewed by a whopping 78.4 per cent in Spain.

The latest sales data from Kantar Worldpanel ComTech shows Android growing its European market dominance rapidly.

Its share of the big five countries – UK, France, Italy, Spain, Germany – leapt from 38.8 per cent in May 2011 to 60 per cent in May 2012.

Of course, the performance in the individual countries varied pretty broadly. Lowest is Italy at 47.4, while Spain hit 78.4 per cent

And in the region’s biggest market, the UK, Android retained its number one position in the latest 12 weeks of sales with a 52.5 per cent share, up from 48.3 per cent a year ago.

Within the UK, Samsung took 56 per cent of device sales while HTC secured 29 per cent.

Dominic Sunnebo, global consumer insight director at Kantar, explained the Euro discrepencies: “There was a period towards the start of this year where Android’s share began to flatline.  However, in the past few months, we have seen a surge in sales, particularly in Spain and Germany.

“In Spain, recessionary pressures are clearly hitting consumers’ wallets –demonstrated by the budget Samsung Galaxy Mini topping the country’s sales charts.  In Germany, the economy is clearly in a very different place, however, its major networks offer very low subsidies on handset purchases making it one of the most expensive countries in Europe to buy a smartphone.

“This means that smartphone penetration is the lowest throughout the major European economies.  As a result, brands such as Huawei, which sell low-end Android models, are now starting to make inroads with almost 200,000 Huawei smartphones sold in Germany this year.”

Among other OSs, iOS maintained its second position but displayed a radically different performance depending on territory.

In the UK it commands 21 per cent; in Spain just 3 per cent.

RIM continued its decline, falling to 5.2 per cent from 9.2 per cent a year ago in the US, for example.

The life is also draining out of Symbian, down from 42 per cent to 6.2 per cent in Spain.

WP7 now has over 3 per cent share in most major markets, with its share highest in Germany and the US. (source:mobile-ent

6)Bolt Creative partners with Funko to launch Pocket God figurines

by Keith Andrew

Later to the party than the likes of Angry Birds and Plants vs. Zombies, Bolt Creative has announced a deal with Funko to launch a range of plush toys based on Pocket God’s Pygmies.

The new figurines will launch this September, with 5-inch vinyl Pygmies, a stylised plush toy and 2.5 inch blind box figurines completing the line up.

Big for Bolt

“Our fans are constantly submitting their latest self-made toy, drawing, or animation,” said head of business development at Bolt Creative Jean Mathews.

“This deal is our latest milestone for the Pocket God franchise in our aggressive 2012 plans to continue fulfilling the pygmy craze.”

Funko president Brian Mariotti said the company “couldn’t wait to share these [figurines] with the community.”

“The Funko team are big fans of Pocket God and had a blast designing and building the models and prototypes for our upcoming lines of Pocket God vinyl figurines and plushies.” (source:pocketgamer

7)Nimblebit prepares for takeoff with Pocket Planes

Pete Davison

Pocket Planes is independent developer Nimblebit’s long-awaited follow-up to its runaway success Tiny Tower. Incorporating the same super-pixelated retro art style as its spiritual predecessor, the new game tasks players with building up their own airline business across the world. Pocket Planes will be released on the iOS App Store as a Universal App on June 14. The team hasn’t said if the promised Android version will launch at the same time, but one is coming.

Pocket Planes is a much deeper, more complex game than Tiny Tower was, though it still remains accessible enough for almost anyone to enjoy. Players begin the game in a world region of their choice with a small fleet of low-capacity planes. The early hours of the game involve making money by picking up passengers and cargo and ferrying them to their destination. Flights take a period of real time to complete, after which a push notification informs the player of the aircraft’s arrival, and planes only have a certain range before they run out of fuel. This means that initially, the player will only be able to do short-range or domestic flights in and around their country of origin, but as they expand their empire they will be able to go further and further afield.

The player’s business expands in several ways. The fleet can be upgraded, either by purchasing complete new models from the in-game market or building them from parts acquired through play and traded with friends. Players may also purchase additional airports around the world as they earn enough capital — these may then open up as destinations for passengers and cargo, or used as “waypoints” for planes to refuel on longer journeys, allowing even short-ranged aircraft to cover long distances.

Besides simply carrying passengers and cargo around the world, time-limited events provide greater rewards for carrying specific characters to special locations. A new “Flight Crew” mode also allows players to team up simply by entering the same crew “tag” in the game and then compete in large-scale time-limited events for in-game prizes such as special aircraft.

It’s clear after just a short period of play that Nimblebit has been working hard to make the social component of Pocket Planes considerably more compelling than that seen in Tiny Tower. Besides the Flight Crew component and the ability to trade plane parts with friends, Game Center leaderboards allow players to compete against one another for the peak value of their airline, their experience level, the total number of miles flown, the total number of flights completed, the longest flight and the most profitable flight. A set of 36 Game Center achievements also ensures that players always have something to aim for if the vague goal of “make more money” isn’t enough for them. And the game is heavily integrated with Twitter, with players able to tweet from most game screens with a screenshot attached as well as retweet posts from the “BitBook” fake in-game social network.(source:insidemobileapps


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