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列举阻碍Facebook持续壮大的4个威胁

发布时间:2012-05-18 14:22:58 Tags:,,,,

作者:Josh Constine

如今的Facebook已经拥有近10亿用户,什么力量才能够推翻这个巨头呢?不管是政府的干预,手机领域的崛起还是社交网站的衰败,即使不会彻底摧毁Facebook,也会严重打击到这一巨头对于整个市场的影响力。

以下我将列出阻碍马克·扎克伯格创造连接世界梦想的4大因素。

这四大因素的共同点是都能够摧毁Facebook的影响力。如果你不能访问这个网站,它充斥过多广告,或者出现了一个比它更好的网站,还是用户只是觉得这个网站变得无趣了等等,不管哪一点对于Facebook来说都是致命打击。

不过老实来说,Facebook的规模,网络效应以及广泛的领导力都能够帮助它战胜这些威胁。我认为Facebook有能力长期站在胜利者的宝座上。但是不管怎么样,胜利者的威胁仍然存在:

1.失去时髦色彩

Facebook可不想只是让大家赶赶时髦,它更希望发挥实用性。它希望成为像手机或电视机一样的存在,而不是Virgin Mobile(游戏邦注:法国市场最大的移动虚拟运营商维珍移动公司)或HBO(总部位于美国纽约的有线电视网络媒体公司,电视联播网)。而Facebook受欢迎的一大原因便是它起源于常春藤联盟(包括哈佛在内的美国东北部八所高校)。凭借着这一威望,该网站迅速红遍美国各所高校,并占领了青年到青少年这一广阔的市场。在美国引起了巨大热潮后Facebook又转向世界继续发展。

facebook-cool(from techcrunch)

facebook-cool(from techcrunch)

但是现在,你妈妈也注册了Facebook,你奶奶,教师,小表弟甚至连水管工也都有自己的Facebook帐号了。这成了一个大众普及的平台,实用性是维持Facebook有效运转的重要原因,但是对大众来说这种效能却是非常脆弱的。扎克伯格即将奔三,他将不再以热血青年的身份去挑战成人世界。现在已经有人开始对这个平台报以怀疑和冷漠态度。

今天社交网站上的一些竞争者刚开始时一般是走精英路线,但他们最终也会逐渐步入Facebook的发展轨迹。这些网站是针对年轻用户而设计,他们将邀请一些名人帮忙宣传并塑造一个细分市场以快速增强自己的力量。这一切将Facebook显得越发古板和无趣。一般Facebook用户都不希望每天再继续面对一些无聊的内容了。而这便是Facebook真正需要应对的挑战。

2.移动市场和广告收益

有业内人士指出,仅靠广告运营并不足以令Facebook的1千亿美元身价名至实归。我们需要从一个更广的层面进行思考。而现在,我们真正需要担心的是移动领域的发展。

facebook-ads-done(from techcrunch)

facebook-ads-done(from techcrunch)

手机设备的有限空间不足以支撑过多广告以及Facebook的各种功能。现在,手机平台的Facebook一天只能提供给用户少许的新闻推送广告,而在网页上,Facebook每页就可以显示4至7个广告。而如果Facebook在手机设备上发布过多广告,也将会严重影响这种平台的使用性。随着越来越多Facebook用户开始从网页转移到手机平台上,面向于提供全方位服务的Facebook最终将获得越来越少的收益。

为了应对这一挑战,Facebook开始大量收购各种手机服务公司,如Instagram,希望以此推动他们的网站和应用吸引更多注意。尽管Facebook拥有5亿多的手机用户,但是大多数用户却对于其手机应用速度感到极其不满。有些用户认为这些手机应用过于杂乱,也有些用户抱怨其缓慢的加载速度。

对于Facebook来说手机便是最大的威胁,该公司也承认了这一点。如果Facebook不能创造出更多富有吸引力的手机应用并从这个小屏幕上挣得更多利益,那么从网页到手机的转变也将预示着Facebook走向衰败。

3.来自下一个“扎克伯格”的竞争

Facebook并不担心来自Twitter,Google+或其它国际巨头公司的威胁。因为事实已经证明这些竞争对手不足以吸引Facebook现有用户的注意,甚至不能够吸引其他公众的广泛关注。他们真正需要担心的是出现另一个能够将Facebook转变成下一个Myspace的“马克·扎克伯格”。

Mark Zuckerberg (from techcrunch)

Mark Zuckerberg (from techcrunch)

虽然Facebook能够大量收购来自各大公司(像Instagram)的顶尖人才,但将扎克伯格这样的人才拉拢到Facebook旗下将更加困难(因为这些人才也会选择自立门户,与Facebook展开竞争)。除此之外Facebook还需要提防当前顶尖人才出走成立新公司挑战Facebook。

同时,一些较大的硬件变革如佩戴于眼镜上的电脑,全息图或其他尖端应用也有可能置Facebook于死地。不过到了那时候,初创企业也都需要面临极端激烈的“战斗”,就像Facebook刚出现那样。

4.政府干预及排挤

Facebook不能进入中国市场,还有一些国家也限制了Facebook,如伊朗,朝鲜以及叙利亚等。而这也等于约束了该社交网站的发展潜力。但是如果Facebook因为与政府发生争辩而遭到更多国家的排挤,这将导致更多用户转向其它社交网站。这种排挤也导致Facebook难以在一个拥有大量网络用户的高价值市场中获得盈利。举个例子来说吧,新加坡虽然是一个非常有价值的市场,但是该国政府却严格地限制了Facebook的使用。

government(from techcrunch)

government(from techcrunch)

此外,政府对隐私的监管也会影响Facebook的发展并降低其竞争力。Facebook勉强度过了美国联邦贸易委员会和欧盟的隐私审计。而如果其核心市场的政府开始约束Facebook新产品或者功能的发而方式,其它初创企业便会趁虚而入。想象一下如果Facebook的地理定位服务Places受到限制,那么Foursquare将会给该公司带来多大的威胁!(本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译,拒绝任何不保留版权的转载,如需转载请联系:游戏邦

Here’s What Could Kill Facebook

Josh Constine

Facebook is nearing a billion users, but what could topple the big blue giant? Government intervention, the shift to mobile, and a loss of “cool” all have the power to violently disrupt the social network, or at least cause it to lose its strong grip on the market.

Here’s a countdown of the four things that could ruin Mark Zuckerberg’s dream of a single site that connects the world.

The thread that runs between all these pitfalls is their potential to make Facebook irrelevant. If you can’t access it, its overrun by ads, there’s something better, or it’s simply uncool, Facebook could fade away.

It’s size, network effect, and wise leadership could protect it from these threats, and honestly, I think Facebook has the potential to be successful for a long, long time. But if you had to bet against Facebook, let’s count down to the #1 biggest threat you’d be betting on.

1. Losing Its Cool

Facebook doesn’t want to be cool. It wants to be a utility. It wants to be the cell phone or the television, not Virgin Mobile or HBO. But the fact is that a big reason Facebook is so popular is because it started by being accessible to only the most envied demographic in the world: Ivy League college students like those at Harvard. It used that prestige to spread like wildfire on every American college campus, and the sexiness of young adulthood to capture the teenage market. Its popularity in the trendsetting United States soon pulled in the rest of the world.

But now your mom is on Facebook. You grandma, professor, little cousins, and plumber are too. It’s not exclusive anymore. Usefulness is what keeps it afloat, but cold, dry, utility for everyone is vulnerable. And soon Zuckerberg will be 30, and he might no longer be seen as the geeky boy genius challenging the adults. He’ll be one of those adults. There are already signs that apathy and distrust for Facebook are setting in.

The slick destroyer of today’s social network would be something that starts elite but that gradually opens up like Facebook did. It would be designed specifically for the hip and young in-crowd. It would recruit big celebrities and carve out an influential niche from which to grow its power. This could be what makes Facebook seem old and boring. And the average Facebook user doesn’t want to go somewhere boring every day. That’s what their jobs are for.

2. Smaller Screens, Small Ad Revenue

Staying afloat on display ads won’t be enough for the social network to justify or surpass its ~$100 billion valuation, as Chris Dixon writes. It will have to think bigger. But for now, it has to worry about mobile.

Handheld devices have less room for ads and Facebook’s long list of features. Currently, Facebook only shows a few mobile news feed ads per user per day, while it shows as many as four to seven ads per page on the web. But if Facebook chokes mobile with too many ads, usage could plummet. As more users shift the time they spend on Facebook from the web to mobile, it will make less of the money that keeps the lights on for the whole service.

To counteract this, Facebook is aggressively acquiring and hiring from mobile companies like Instagram in hopes of getting its mobile site and apps up to draw more eyeballs. However, while it has a huge footprint of over 500 million mobile users, there’s widespread discontent with the speed of its mobile apps. Many people think they’re cluttered, and complain of slow loading speeds.

Mobile is the biggest threat to Facebook, and the company admits it. If it can’t make more compelling mobile apps and earn more money from these small screens, the shift to mobile will see Facebook lowered into its own grave.

3. Competition From The Next Mark Zuckerberg

Facebook doesn’t actually need to worry much about Twitter, Google+, or international players. They’ve failed to offer something revolutionary enough to make early adopters ditch Facebook, or mainstream enough to appeal to everyone. What big blue needs to worry about is the next social product visionary, the next Mark Zuckerberg that could turn Facebook into the next Myspace.

While acquiring and acq-hiring top talent from companies like Instagram was easy when it had pre-IPO stock to throw around, recruiting that next Zuck to side with Facebook rather than wage war against it is about to get tougher. Same goes for keeping its current rock stars from leaving to start a true competitor.

It might take a big hardware change like eyewear computers, holograms, or apps you download straight to your brain to finally make Facebook obsolete. Even then that upstart would have quite the uphill battle, but so did Facebook when it launched.

4. Big Brother

Facebook is banned in China and access is or has been restricted in several countries including Iran, North Korea, and Syria. Right now this is limiting the social network’s growth potential. But if disputes with governments over what content is appropriate cause it to be shut out of more countries, these roadblocks could divert users to other local social networks. That would fracture the value that comes with having such a high percentage of Internet users in one place. For example, Singapore is a valuable market with a strict government that could drop the ban hammer on Facebook.

Regulation around privacy could also slow Facebook down and make it more vulnerable to competition. Facebook narrowly escaped privacy audits from the U.S. Federal Trade Commission and the European Union. If the government of a core market put restrictions on how Facebook can launch new products or what features it can show where, it could create opportunities for startups to eat Facebook’s lunch. Imagine how much bigger a threat Foursquare would be if Facebook had been restricted from launching its Places location service.(source:techcrunch


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