作者：Nicholas Lovell

2012年，大众集资网站处于高度活跃的状态。不少读者都知道Double Fine替自己的游戏项目筹得创纪录的333万5265美元，而用户对于这款游戏知之甚少，仅清楚这是款指向点击冒险游戏，将由Tim Schafer和Ron Gilbert这两位行业元老完成。随后InXile CEO和Interplay创始人Brian Fargo也效仿此举，给《Wasteland》（游戏邦注：这是1998年的游戏作品）的续集制作筹得290万美元。

Kickstarter from digitaltrends.com

这两个传统发行商不会涉猎的游戏题材如今不仅从粉丝那筹得资金，还给其他Kickstarter项目开辟道路。Kickstarter在最近的博文中表示，轰动巨作能够将更多用户带入大众集资生态系统中。成功的大规模募款公司并没有瓜分尽所有既有资金；他们提高用户集资项目的数量，扩大其他项目潜在的投资用户。下面是Kickstarter的若干重要数据：

* 在Kickstarter成立头两年，电子游戏类型共筹集177万6372美元。在Double Fine项目公布后6个月，开发者总计通过这一平台筹得289万0704美元（游戏邦注：若将Double Fine筹得的资金也计算在内，那就是622万7075美元）。

* 在Double Fine项目出现前，只有一个电子游戏项目募款超过10万美元。而截至2012年3月29日，已有9个项目超过这一数额。

* 在Double Fine项目出现前的那个月，电子游戏类型平均每周筹得629笔款项；出现Double Fine项目后，这一数据变成9755/周。

目前Kickstarter的Video Games Channel共有314个项目。若干项目已筹到全部资金（如《YogVentures》）。其他项目则难以实现预期目标。最令我担心的项目结合如下两种情况：项目成功筹资归功于过度乐观的推广者。这正是麻烦的来源。

只有10%的资金用于开发工作

独立开发者Warballoon在Kickstarter替自己的iOS游戏《Star Command》筹得3万6967美元。其中：

* 有2000美元的资金没有到位，除去亚马逊和Kickstarter的费用后，Warballoon共获得3.2万美元。

* 奖品耗费1万美元！远高出Warballoon的预期。

* 然后：音乐（6000美元）、成立公司的法律和会计费用（4000美元）、海报设计（2000美元）、iPad（1000美元）及参加PAX East（3000美元）。

* 留给开发工作6000美元。纳税后，这笔费用只剩4000美元。

所以在3万6967美元的资金中，只有4000美元用在开发工作上。我并不是在指责Warballoon：我欣赏他们公开分享自己的数据资料。他们是将Kickstarter资金用在耗钱的工作内容上（例如音乐和参加活动），而非编码之类无需耗费资金的事项（游戏邦注：这耗费的是时间）。

Warballoon开展了成功的Kickstarter项目，其项目早于Double Fine，但若将相关人员的薪金计算在内，他们并没有筹到足够的项目制作资金。

Molyneux效应

我发现的第二个问题被我称作“Molyneux效应”。Peter Molyneux是位富有创意的游戏设计师，他对于游戏媒介所传递内容的思考启发了全球众多的玩家和游戏开发者。

他还做出自己无法兑现的承诺。在项目初期，Peter常常处于极度兴奋状态，进而开始陷入幻想之中，随后技术实况、时间和预算令他的美梦灰飞烟灭。粉丝随后就会出现不满情绪，开发者在开发初期给出的美好承诺最终没有变成现实。

这就像是你在开发初始支付游戏费用，因为你相信开发者的美好承诺，而不是在项目末尾，待到自己有机会阅读评论，查看游戏具体内容的时候。此时，粉丝将正在处在主导地位，而非仅是得到授权感觉。网络会回应他们的不满情绪。

是否能够发行？

我相信Tim Schafer和他的Double Fine团队知道如何如期、在预算范围内发布游戏。Brian Fargo也不例外。但Kickstarter当前的314个项目是否都是如此？

那些有头无尾的项目呢？若LucasArts之类的发行商能够撤销即将完工的游戏项目或是像Codemasters那样在尚未成形的游戏中投资，那么投资者有多大把握作品能够顺利问世？

我们依然处在活跃阶段

我们依然处在Kickstarter关系的初期阶段，就好比是刚坠入情网。伙伴所做的事情在我们看来都非常美妙。我们掩盖风险，我们忽略弊端，因为坠入情网的美妙超越一切。

在我看来，这一阶段还有6个月就会告一段落。到今年末，若干Kickstarter项目就会逐步淡出大众视野。有些团队会在相互指责中分崩离析。而有些捐赠者则会逐渐心生不满。

不要误解我的意思。我喜欢Kickstarter。我欣赏它能够让粉丝随心所欲地在自己钟情的项目中进行投资。我欣赏它让支持者能够自由投入不同数额的资金。我不认为Kickstarter会取代发行商，但它促使瞄准细分市场的游戏作品最终能够投入制作，被玩家体验。

这好极了，但其间道路定不会是一帆风顺。（本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译，拒绝任何不保留版权的转载，如需转载请联系：游戏邦）

Opinion: How long before the Kickstarter bubble bursts?

by Nicholas Lovell

[Kickstarter's earned plenty of funding for game developers over the past several months, but will this new-found funding model last? Gamasutra contributor Nicholas Lovell provides his thoughts on the matter and outlines some imporants risks developers and backers need to be aware of.]

2012 has seen an unprecedented level of euphoria over crowdfunding sites. Regular readers of Gamasutra will know that Double Fine raised $3,335,265 in a record-breaking campaign to produce a game about which purchasers knew very little, except that it would be a point-and-click adventure created by two of the doyens of that industry: Tim Schafer and Ron Gilbert. Then InXile CEO and Interplay founder Brian Fargo followed the example, raising $2.9m to fund a sequel to 1988 game Wasteland.

Not only have two games that traditional publishers wouldn’t touch now been funded by fans, but they appear to have opened the floodgates to other Kickstarter projects. In a recent blog post, Kickstarter said that blockbuster projects draw more people into the crowdfunding ecosystem. Successful, large-scale fund-raisers don’t suck up all the available money; they increase the number of people funding projects, increasing the pool of potential funders for other projects. Kickstarter’s key statistics:

* In the first two years of Kickstarter, the Video Games category saw pledges of $1,776,372. In the six weeks after the Double Fine project was announced, $2,890,704 was pledged (if you added Double Fine’s amount to that, you get $6,227,075.)

* Before Double Fine, one video game project had exceeded $100,000. By March 29, 2012, nine projects had.

* In the month before Double Fine, the Video Games category averaged 629 pledges a week; after (but excluding) Double Fine, that jumped to 9,755 pledges per week.

There are currently 314 projects live on the Video Games Channel on Kickstarter. Several are fully-funded already (like YogVentures). Others never will be (I’ve seen at least two massive open-world sandbox games proposed by people who have never made any games before). The ones I worry about are the ones that combine the two: fully funded projects by wildly-optimistic promoters. That is where the trouble will start.

Only 10% Spend On Development

Independent developer Warballoon raised $36,967 on Kickstarter to fund their iOS game, Star Command. Only they didn’t:

* $2,000 just didn’t turn up (payments didn’t transfer) and when Amazon and Kickstarter took their fees, Warballoon got $32,000.

* Prizes cost $10,000! Much more than Warballoon was expecting. (Note to Kickstarters: do your costings carefully, and remember to include postage halfway round the globe.)

* Then: music ($6,000), legal and accounting fees to set up the business ($4,000), poster art ($2,000), iPads ($1,000), attending PAX East ($3,000)

* Leaving $6,000 for development. Which was taxed, leaving $4,000.

So out of $36,967, only $4,000 went on development. I’m not picking on Warballoon: I think it is great that they shared their data. More than that, they spent their Kickstarter money on things that cost money (like music and attending events), not on things like coding which doesn’t (it costs their time, which is very valuable but is not cold hard cash).

The Warballoon team had a successful Kickstarter project, raised in the days before Double Fine, but they didn’t raise enough money to make the game if they needed to fund the salaries of everyone involved.

The Molyneux Effect

The second issue I see is what I am terming the “Molyneux effect.” Peter Molyneux is a creative game developer who inspires players and game makers the world over with his thoughts on what the games medium can deliver.

He also makes promises he can’t possibly keep. In the early days of his projects, Peter used to get so excited that he would start thinking about the things he was imagining before the practicalities of technology, time and budget started to cut into his dreams. (That was before the Microsoft machine got its hooks into him. Maybe it will start again now that he is independent again). Fans would then get furious that the grand promises at the start of development did not make it into final release (as this satirical news piece shows.)

Now imagine that you paid for the game at the start of the process, because you believed in the grand claims, not at the end of the process, once you had a chance to read the reviews and see what is actually in the game. This time, fans will actually have entitlement, not just a sense of entitlement. The Internet will reverberate with their fury.

Can They Deliver?

I am convinced that Tim Schafer and his team at Double Fine know how to deliver a game (mostly) on time and (mostly) on budget. Brian Fargo too. Is that true for all 314 of the current Kickstarter projects?

What about the projects which get started but never finished? If publishers like LucasArts can cancel games that are almost finished or like Codemasters can pay for a game it never saw, what certainty do pledgers have that the game that they have paid for will ever see the light of day?

We Are Still In The Euphoric Phase

We are still in the early days of our Kickstarter relationship, the early days of falling in love. Everything our partner does is wonderful. We gloss over the risks, we ignore the downsides, because the glory of falling in love is everything.

I think we have about six months left of that period. Towards the end of this year, some Kickstarter projects are going to start slipping. Some will see their teams collapse amidst bicker recriminations. Some pledgers are going to start getting very angry.

Don’t get me wrong. I love Kickstarter. I love the way it allows fans to spend as much or as little they want on supporting projects that they love (or think they will). I love the way it gives people with different spending appetites different amounts to spend. I don’t think Kickstarter will replace publishers but it will enable games that appeal to niche (as defined by mega-publishers) audiences to get made and played.

Which is great. Just don’t expect the ride to be smooth from here on in. Listen for the screams.（Source：gamasutra）