作者：Jon Jordan

GDC 2012上汇聚了各种新闻、观点、看法和猜想，这些内容关注的都是手机游戏行业在未来数个月的发展方向。

我将把整个大会概括总结为21个话题，包括从小趋势到有关行业如何发生改变的扩展性评论。

1、关注趣味性，而不是资金投入

在过去12个月中，有个趋势已经逐渐显现。在GDC 2012中，许多免费游戏开发商指出，现在他们在测试游戏时不以盈利为目标。

他们发布测试版游戏，关注早期的留存率和转化指标，确保产品能够吸引并留住用户。让玩家通过教程已经成为关键要素。

根据ngmoco等公司的说法，如果玩法机制足够优秀，游戏足够有趣，那么游戏盈利并非难事。

NimbleBit和Imangi已经分别用《Tiny Tower》和《Temple Run》证实了这种想法的正确。在这两款游戏中，玩家付费是为了能够在游戏中获得更快的进展，而开发商也能够从中受益。

2、游戏运营的生命周期

现在，免费游戏进入手机平台已有两年时间，所以许多开发商公开谈论此类游戏多年运营的可能性并不令人意外。

这些内容与终生价值（游戏邦注：即LTV）指标有关。

如果你的游戏运营已超过1年，那么你就会知道每年能够从活跃玩家处获得多少盈利，这个数字将反映资金流动和用户获取等关键指标的情况。

有些游戏可能在运营很长时间后才能获得成功。

比如，2011年美国iPhone游戏营收榜单之首是Pocket Gems的《Tap Zoo》，但这款游戏在2010年9月就发布了。PlayFirst的《Diner Dash》发布于2009年3月，但直到2012年1月才迎来盈利高峰期。

3、博彩游戏的兴起

以手机为平台的真实博彩游戏似乎将在2012年迅速发展。这个情况主要发生在美国，其趋势愈发明显。

2011年末，《Slotomania》开发商Playtika被Caesars收购，Big Fish也刚刚收购《Card Ace Casino》开发商Self Aware Games，Zynga也瞄准了这个方向。

显然，众多公司涉足这一领域在于其庞大的利润。你能够从每个赌徒身上平均获得150美元收益，而普通手机游戏LTV仅在20美元左右。

4、苹果的问题

从盈利角度来看，iOS仍然是最高效的平台，但开发商在该平台上发现了些许令人烦恼的问题。

从苹果对中国虚假IAP这一问题的不作为（游戏邦注：有报道称目前该问题已经影响到美国开发商），“纵容”第三方违规操纵应用排名问题，低效应对游戏侵权问题，Game Center功能缺陷等一系列情况可以看出，

苹果对细节的重视程度似乎不及以往。

5、新款iPad的负面作用

显然，像Epic、Fishlabs、MadFinger、NaturalMotion和Revo Solutions之类的高端开发商将会使新款iPad功能发挥到极致。但Retina屏幕意味着，如果开发者不进行产品优化，图像的纹理尺寸将受到影响。

这还将极大影响下载应用的大小，有些公司已经制作出了2 GB的应用，而新款iPad的最大容量仍为64 GB。

而且，现在旧款iPad的处理能力似乎已经过低，难以支持某些高端游戏。当然，这种分裂性与Android系统不同，但依然是不可忽视的分裂性。

这样看来，新iPad已经成为性能过于优越并且难以驾驭的东西。

6、网络效应

目前，仍然有更多的交叉推广平台已投入开发，未来将对用户获取领域产生更大的推动作用。

关键在于，为何Applifier和Chartboost会提供不同的商业化服务，而且某些产品流量较大的开发商也愿意使用这种有价值的资源。

现有的例子包括Future Games of London的Future Games Network（游戏邦注：有2500万用户），同时RPG发行商Crescent Moon和新西兰开发商PikPok也正在开发自己的专用网络。英国咨询公司Tenshi也正在研发自己的网络。

同样，每日应用推广领域也有新成员加入，例如Iddiction推出的App-o-Day服务。

7、市场分析数据

伴随交叉推广网络出现的是营销技巧和数据。

在这个领域内，行业中已经有了Flurry、App Annie和Distimo。现在，又增加了Metricmine和App Rank两家公司。你可以获得很多有关应用和应用商店的信息。

8、巨头之间的大战

手机内容领域中有许多情况是显而易见的，也有许多是我们无法直接看到的东西，但是我们可以分析潜藏的发展方向和势头。

在本次GDC上，许多人分享了他们对苹果、Google和Facebook这3个巨头大战的看法。当然，亚马逊和微软等公司也有可能对行业产生重要影响。

就个人而言，我觉得在许多方面这些公司的影响力并不如许多人想象的那么大。

比如，目前只有20%的《宝石迷阵闪电战》iOS版玩家会使用Facebook Connect选项来与他们的好友比较分数，尽管这是款跨平台社交游戏。

更确切地说，现在并没有明显证据表明这些巨头将游戏业务作为最优先的发展目标。在这种情况出现之前，他们或许还只能算是沉睡的巨人。

9、平台的概念

如果要从本届GDC 2012中找出一个标题词汇的话，那就是“平台”。

但是问题在于，任何带有综合性服务的内容网络都可以称为“平台”，其真正的概念很难界定。

存在直接竞争关系的是GREE和DeNA旗下的Mobage，但GREE使用的是Facebook的社交图谱，尽管Facebook对他们来说也是潜在的竞争者。

其他平台还包括苹果iOS专用的Game Center、黑莓持有的Scoreloop、木瓜移动、The9′s Game Zone（游戏邦注：OpenFeint旗下平台）和iDreamSky的Skynet等许多中国平台。新出现的平台有Sulake的Habbo Hotel、Zynga的同名平台，以及EA的Origin。

从某种程度上来说，平台领域是个赢家通吃的领域。但事实上，手机游戏玩家很可能会同时使用多个平台，选择什么平台取决于他们的年龄、所处的地理位置以及喜欢玩的游戏类型。

但是，这只是该业务面向消费者的部分。

Tapjoy、Fisku和GetJar等公司也有专注于消费者和交易的平台，至少从用户获取方面来说是这样的，而Storm8和Pocket Gems等社交游戏发行商都在尝试将玩家留存在自己的游戏网络中。

正如之前提到的那样，这种做法类似于Chartboost、Applifier和FreeAppADay提供的交叉推广服务。

甚至连Nvidia和Qualcomm等芯片公司都开始在这片领域中活跃起来，他们有自己的内容交易计划和消费者营销支持服务。

而且，应用商店也可以被视为平台，因为其排行榜和推荐榜单是关键的用户获取驱动力。

从大局上看，平台就是整个行业，而不是某个具体的公司。

10、制作好游戏

事实上，过多地讨论平台和盈利无济于事，首先你需要有个优秀的产品。

现在，手机游戏的玩法和互动都变得越来越复杂，但通过合理的营销就可以让用户熟悉。然而，《Tiny Wings》和《Temple Run》的成功都表明，简单的想法同样能够获得用户的关注，而且不需要通过大量的营销就可以实现。

在GDC上，我看到许多小公司仍然将所有精力集中在制作优秀游戏上，这确实是件很棒的事情。

11、游戏开发与营销

“制作游戏是最简单的事情，营销游戏是最困难的事情。”

但开发者目前在这两个领域中仍将面临极大挑战。

12、中国和俄罗斯公司

中国人口数量众多，而且手机和IT产品成长迅速，所以腾讯、九城、木瓜移动、CocoaChina和iDreamSky等公司蜂拥而至，这并不会令人感到惊奇，但俄罗斯公司的出现确实在意料之外。

G5 Entertainment和Alawar等公司已经在行业内闻名遐迩。同样成功的还有纯游戏制作公司Game Insight（游戏邦注：公司该主要开发Android平台游戏），Mail.ru和i-free等网络公司也开始将业务扩张到手机游戏领域。

重点在于，这些公司的目标并不是针对国内市场，他们希望能够在欧洲和北美市场获得成功。

13、黑莓的进步

GDC 2012是首个开发者关注黑莓的游戏开发大会。

BB10和PlayBook游戏战略引起了许多人的关注，更不用提该公司发布的众多新设备，黑莓已经成为了开发者讨论更为频繁的一个话题。

有个工作室告诉我，预计2012年他们在黑莓平台的盈利要超过Android。

主要原因是，黑莓专注于高端预付费游戏（游戏邦注：Android平台的盗版问题已经扼杀了此类游戏的生存空间）。除此之外，稳定的技术、优秀的应用商店和推广系统以及更高的游戏售价表明该公司对黑莓平台极为重视，虽然目前黑莓应用的安装量仍不甚乐观。

而在半年前，你根本不会料想到黑莓会引起游戏开发者的关注。

14、泡沫破裂

2011年崛起了许多手机社交游戏公司，比如Storm8、TinyCo、Pocket Gems、Funzio和CrowdStar。他们募得大量VC资金，并将其投入到iOS市场中，获得了上千万的玩家。

开发者还讨论了今年可能出现的合并、收购和数十亿美元估值的公司。

虽然此类公司中许多都运转得很不错，最引人注目的是Pocket Gems，旗下iPhone游戏在2011年曾位列营收榜单第1和第4位，但事实上泡沫已经破裂。

部分原因是VC公司将注意力转向手机和游戏的其他领域，另一部分原因是这些开发商烧钱速度加剧，因为用户获取成本已经明显增长。

他们投放到市场中的都是相似的产品，而且许多公司还面临基本的制作问题，比如需要同时开发和发布iOS及Android版本。

Zynga、GREE和DeNA等大公司进驻手机游戏市场也使这些公司的生存更加困难，招募优秀员工的成本大大提升。

我们期望在2012年时，这里所讨论的合并和收购能够变成真正的交易。虽然这些公司的估值未必达到数十亿，但数亿美元应该不成问题。

15、手机游戏成热门话题

对手机游戏来说，GDC 2012或许是最佳的讨论时机，因为明年可能就不会有如此优良的环境。

大型主机公司在E3前都将保持沉默，手机游戏正好可以填补这段真空期。

明年，我们可能会看到GDC更多地讨论中间件技术和超现实主义图像。

16、合适的工具

我们可以看到，现在所有主机中间件公司都以支持iPad 2类硬件作为核心业务的一部分。

英国即时光照专业公司Geomerics便是一个例子，该公司旗下Enlighten引擎（游戏邦注：《战地3》使用的引擎）准备发布支持iOS应用的版本。

还有其他公司也有同样的做法，尽管手机与主机间业务模式和机会差异意味着他们需要对技术做出修改。

17、关于ID的讨论

2012年手机游戏行业最大的改变将是苹果放弃使用其硬件Unique Device ID（游戏邦注：下文简称UDID）。

没有人知道为何苹果要这样做，也没有人做好分享应变措施的准备，但几乎所有开发商都在探索各种解决方案。

但是，移除UDID意味着所有分析的准确性将受到影响，这会妨碍到广告、交叉推广、激励动作和营销活动方面的决策。

问题已经如此明显，开发者似乎试图创造出通用的行业标准，各种中间件供应商也在试图提供自己的个性化解决方案。

但是，如果这些解决方案无法发挥作用，那么用户获取成本将急剧增加。

18、疯狂的产业

过去，我认为“疯狂的”这个形容词只限于修饰Rovio的Peter Vesterbacka。

随着行业的迅速成长，现在可用这个词语来修饰的产品越来越多。

该领域内的许多公司都表示，他们期望2012年的手机游戏盈利能够翻倍，其中的典型就是Zynga。

19、回到核心元素

在手机游戏论坛上，我尝试发明新的词汇“免费层次核心”，但是很不幸失败了。

关键是，“付费增值”（游戏邦注：该词汇源于“付费”+“免费增值”）很不恰当，“免费层次核心”所描述的是三层次方法、核心游戏玩法免费、技能不以时间为基础、付费可解锁额外内容以及含有游戏内置货币（游戏邦注：该货币可从游戏中获得或直接用钱购买）的游戏。

但是，现在越来越多的公司声称他们正进驻手机免费游戏领域，专注于满足核心玩家的游戏需求，通过手机平台来呈现“核心”元素。

比如，Aeria Mobile等网游公司、Kabam等Facebook游戏公司、Industrial Toys等主机领域初创公司，他们都有与Storm8、Glu Mobile和Z2Live角逐这个领域的想法。

前EA Mobile主管Mitch Lasky的举动也能够说明这一点。

他指出，只要游戏理念和质量符合受众的需求，像《英雄联盟》这种成功的PC网游就能获得比Facebook游戏更高的盈利和留存率，也更能够吸引用户的关注。

20、全球化发展，本土化思维

这是个很容易理解的观点。成功的手机游戏开发商和发行商现在都会让自己的游戏支持至少8种语言，支持10种语言的游戏也屡见不鲜。

除了核心的5大欧洲语言外，还出现了日语、朝鲜语、汉语、波兰语和俄语版本。

21、不要低估用户的价值

用户获取往往成为许多开发商苦恼的问题。

如果你在大街上强迫陌生人体验你的游戏，这似乎是件很令人难堪的事情。但是，获取用户并不一定需要这样做。让人们在Twitter上发布高分或者告诉好友下载和体验《Draw Something》或《Words With Friends》，这是构建用户基础的最佳方式。

但是，对多数开发商来说，通过App Store来获得游戏曝光，需要等待的时间过于漫长。

应用商店的推荐固然可以帮助你吸引用户关注，但并不能确保获得用户。

这也就是开发商将这个过程称为“用户获取”的原因。就是花钱吸引用户眼球，无论是FreeAppADay、通过Tapjoy开展的激励安装、标准手机广告或其他类似服务，其本质均是如此。

问题在于，随着行业盈利性的不断成长，许多资金雄厚的公司会垄断这些服务，至少在短期内实现垄断。

最近期的例子是，Zynga为《Dream Heights》的发布出巨资购买了所有可获得用户的渠道。同样，GREE也将把其平台多达5000万美元的大部分营销预算投入到用户获取上。

这不仅会将用户获取平均成本提高到令许多人难以承受的程度，而且还可能导致小公司无法构建起自己的业务渠道。

幸好，即便是像Zynga和GREE如此规模的大公司现在都无法完全主宰市场，但不幸的是在接下来的几个月内，他们会尝试实现这一目标。

据内部人士透露，精确衡量用户长期价值是件很困难的事情。

但是Zynga在Facebook上的成功以及GREE、DeNA在日本社交网络上的成功都表明，如果这种方法生效，这便是构建大型高盈利公司的快捷方式。（本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译，拒绝任何不保留版权的转载，如需转载请联系：游戏邦）

21 game changing biz trends from GDC 2012 you need to know

Jon Jordan

It’s been a busy week, but more importantly GDC 2012 proved to be a rich vein of news, views, opinions and conjecture about where the mobile gaming industry is headed over the next couple of months.

Traditionally, I’ve tried to condense such conferences down into a concise article, breaking out the top 10 topics, but not this year.

Instead, I’ve had to condense the show down into 21 topics, ranging from small nuggets to extended commentaries on how the industry is changing.

Feel free to add your own take using the comments system below.

1. Fun, not funds

A trend that has been bubbling under for the past 12 months, at GDC 2012 several free-to-play developers pointed out they now test their games without monetisation.

They release game in beta, and laser focus on early retention and churn metrics to ensure they’re finding and keeping an audience. Getting players through the tutorial is a key element.

The point – according to companies such as ngmoco – is that if play metrics are good enough; if the game is fun enough, successful monetisation can be easily added.

And, to be honest, this is just what NimbleBit and Imangi have already proved with Tiny Tower and Temple Run, where payment is as much a reward from players for the enjoyment they’re getting as a way of progressing faster.

2. Run deep, run long

Free-to-play games have been big on mobile for two years now, so it’s no surprise that more developers are openly talking about running titles for multiple years.

It’s something that plays into the whole LifeTime Value (LTV) metric.

When you’re running a game for over a year, you start to have a good idea about how much you can generate from an active player on an annual basis; a number that feeds back into key indicators such as cash flow and user acquisition.

And for those with a long term take on business, will likely add multiples to your valuation too.

For example, the top grossing iPhone game in the US in 2011 was Pocket Gems’ Tap Zoo; initially released in September 2010, while PlayFirst’s Diner Dash, which was released in March 2009, had its peak revenue to-date in January 2012.

3. It’s a gamble

File it under speculation, but it seems that mobile gambling games – real gambling games – are going to explode in 2012. This is mainly an American issue, given its currently restrictive national rules, but the trend is looking obvious.

Slotomania developer Playtika was fully bought by Caesars late in 2011, Big Fish just bought Card Ace Casino developer Self Aware Games, and Zynga’s raring to go into the sector too.

Obviously, the reason is cold, hard cash. You can generate average revenue of $150 per gambler, compared to mobile gaming LTV of around $20.

4. Bad Apple

It’s still the largest game in town in terms of generating revenue but developers are finding more things to be annoyed about when it comes to Apple.

From its inactivity over the ongoing Chinese IAP scams (something now hitting US companies, we’re hearing), to the whole bot farm issue, its slowness to deal with copyright issues – notably seen in the approval of games such as the fake Pokemon Yellow – and the lack of features in Game Center, its reputation for attention to detail is seen to be slipping.

Also, what are we supposed to call the “all-new iPad”? It’s going to boil down to iPad 3 right?

5. iPad breaks continuity

Continuing the iPad 3 riff, it’s proving a tipping point for the industry.

Obviously, high end developers such as Epic, Fishlabs, MadFinger, NaturalMotion, Revo Solutions (Namco’s iPad 3 highlighted Sky Gamblers game) etc will use all the horsepower they can get.

But Retina graphics mean that if you don’t optimise, texture sizes are going up four-fold.

This will have a knock-on effect on downloads sizes; some companies are already contemplating 2 GB app installs; and the maximum capacity of the “all-new iPad” is still 64 GB.

Similarly, the original iPad is now seen as being too slow for some high end titles to support. Of course, it’s not fragmentation in an Android sense, but it is fragmentation nevertheless.

Seems like you can have too much of a good thing.

6. The network effect

As part of the wider push on user acquisition (of which more later), there are still more cross promotional platforms being developed.

The point is that why the likes of Applifier and Chartboost offer different flavours of commercial services, some developers with large amount of traffic around their games are looking to expand this valuable resource in a more ad hoc basis.

Existing example include the Future Games of London’s Future Games Network (25 million users), while RPG publisher Crescent Moon and New Zealand developer PikPok are looking to roll out their own specific networks. UK consultancy Tenshi is also working on its own thing.

Similarly, there are new entrants in the daily app promotional space, with Iddiction’s App-o-Day hoping to fill the volume gap that GREE’s deal with FreeAppADay will likely create.

7. Got your number

And as with cross promotional networks so with market intelligence and data.

We already have Flurry, App Annie and Distimo. They’ve now been joined by Metricmine and App Rank. You can’t have too much information about apps and app stores.

8. Big beasts battle

There’s a lot going on on the surface of the mobile content business that’s fairly easy to see. There’s also a lot going on that we can’t see, but like undersea currents we can get some sort of idea of direction and momentum in terms of how they are moving entities floating on the surface.

This GDC, there have been more people contextualising their opinions in terms of the broader battles between Apple, Google and Facebook; with the likes of Amazon and Microsoft perhaps also influencing events.

Personally, I think in many ways these companies are less influential than many people think.

For example, apparently only 20 percent of Bejeweled Blitz players on iOS use the Facebook Connect option to compare score with their friends, despite it being a social game, and one that’s also available cross-platform on Facebook itself.

More specifically, it’s not clear that games are a priority for any of these giants yet, and until that’s the case, they might remain sleeping giants.

9. Foundations

If there was a single headline word from GDC 2012, it was platform.

The problem is that the term ‘platform’ – effectively any content network with integrated services – is only loosely defined.

There are direct competitors such as GREE and DeNA’s Mobage, but GREE uses Facebook’s social graph; despite it being a potential competitor.

There’s also Apple’s iOS-only Game Center, the RIM-owned Scoreloop, plenty of Chinese players such as Papaya, The9′s Game Zone (powered by OpenFeint), iDreamSky’s Skynet etc, not to mention new platforms such as Sulake’s Habbo Hotel and Zynga’s eponymous Platform, and EA’s Origin.

To some degree, it’s a winner-take-all proposition, but equally, any keen mobile gamer is likely to be registered on half a dozen, depending on their age, geography and the type of games they like to play.

But this is only the consumer-facing part of the business.

The likes of Tapjoy, Fisku and GetJar have consumer and trade-focused platforms, at least in terms of user acquisition, while the social publishers – Storm8, Pocket Gems etc – all try to keep their players in their network of games.

As previously mentioned, it’s a similar deal with cross promotional services such as Chartboost, Applifier and FreeAppADay.

On another level entirely, even chip companies such as Nvidia and Qualcomm are becoming more active in this space; something that feeds into their own content deals, typically for limited period exclusively and consumer marketing support.

And it could also be argued that app stores are platforms, at least in terms of their role as the key user acquisition driver thanks to charts and featured slots.

Looking at the situation in this broad way, the platform play is the entire industry; not a discrete set of competing companies, instead a lasagne-like complexity of meat, cheese, tomatoes, sauce and pasta, all slip-sliding over each other.

Of course, as long as the gamer gets a tasty mouthful, this doesn’t matter. Too much of one ingredient breaks the balance, however, and that’s something content creators will have to be wary of in terms of how they release their games.

10. The simple way to success

The counter to too much business talk about platforms and monetisation is you need a great game in the first place.

Mobile games are becoming more complex to play and interact with; something that can be overcome with marketing dollars. But as the likes of Tiny Wings and Temple Run demonstrate, a simple idea which catches the imagination of the public doesn’t need any fancy campaigns.

And it was great to see at GDC that there are companies – often the smaller ones – who remain laser focused on very pure games.

In particular, there was one that I loved, but – alas – can’t yet talk about.

11. Be careful what you wish for

The cynic’s response to this is the same phrase that Zynga used to launch its Zynga Platform; something that GREE and DeNA will no doubt also echo.

“It’s never been easier to make a game. It’s never been harder to distribute it.”

Neither are likely to change significantly in terms of making life easier for many developers any time soon.

12. Dragon and bear

It’s no surprise given large populations and fast growing mobile and IT sectors but joining the wave of Chinese players such as Tencent, The9, Papaya, CocoaChina, iDreamSky etc, are Russian companies.

The likes of G5 Entertainment and Alawar are already well known in the industry, of course. Joining them as a successful pure play games company (especially on Android) is Game Insight, while internet outfits such as Mail.ru and i-free are also now heavily expanding their activity in terms of mobile gaming.

Significantly, they’re not looking to make games for their domestic market, though. They’re looking to be successful in Europe and North America.

13. BlackBerry gains traction

GDC 2012 was the first big game developer conference RIM has taken seriously.

With a variety of talks about its games strategy for BB10 and PlayBook, not to mention more device giveaway, BlackBerry is a topic more regularly discussed by developers.

Indeed, one high profile studio told me that it expects to generate more revenue on BlackBerry devices this year than on Android.

Mainly because it focuses on high end premium games (something that piracy has killed on Android), nevertheless, the promise of solid technology, a good app store and promotional system, and higher game prices means it’s enthusiastic about supporting the platform; despite the small install base.

That’s not something you could have written about six months ago.

14. Storm in a TinyStar Gems?

2011 was all about the rise of mobile social gaming powerhouses such as Storm8, TinyCo, Pocket Gems, Funzio and CrowdStar. They raised a lot of VC money and piled into the iOS market,

gaining ten of millions of players in the process.

There was also plenty of talk about mergers, acquisitions and even billion dollar valuations.

But while many of these companies are doing well – notably Pocket Gems getting the #1 and #4 top grossing iPhone games in the US during 2011 – the business bubble has burst.

Partly it’s an issue of VC money looking at different sectors in mobile and gaming, and partly an issue that these companies have been burning through cash faster, as user acquisition costs have increased.

They’ve also swamped the market in terms of similar products, while many of them have yet to get to grips with basic engineering issues such as simultaneously developing and releasing on iOS and Android.

The entrance of really big companies such as Zynga, GREE and DeNA into the mobile gaming space has also make life much more difficult all round, especially in terms of the cost of recruiting good staff.

We expect the talk of mergers and acquisitions to solidify into actual deals during 2012. Valuations won’t involve ‘b’s, but hundreds of millions still seems likely.

15. It’s about the time

GDC 2012 was the best conference ever in terms of mobile gaming’s presence but don’t expect this to be the case in 2013.

With the big console companies keeping their powder dry until E3, mobile filled a news vacuum.

Next year will see the headlines at GDC being shared with all the latest talk of middleware technology, launch titles and super realistic graphics.

16. Right tools

An aside to this is we’re seeing all the console middleware companies supporting iPad 2-class hardware as part of their core business.

One example is UK real-time lighting experts Geomerics, which has a tech demo of its Enlighten engine (as used in Battlefield 3) ready for release as a standalone iOS app a la Epic’s Epic Citadel.

It’s not the only one, although the different business models and opportunities on mobile mean that deployment of such technology is unlikely to follow console patterns.

17. ID the elephant in the room

The single biggest change to the mobile gaming industry in 2012 will be Apple removing use of its hardware Unique Device ID (UDID).

No one knows exactly why it’s doing it, and no one is yet prepared to talk in detail about what they’re going to do about it, although everyone is working on various solutions.

The bottomline, however, is that removing UDIDs means that all analytics will be less accurate; something that has implications for advertising, cross promotions, incentivised actions and market intelligence.

The issue is so significant it seems there will be an attempt to create a broad industry standard, and there are various middleware providers who also have their own particular custom solutions.

But if this doesn’t work out, the value of getting a recognised user to actively sign into a platform will increase tremendously – something not lost on the likes of Zynga, GREE, DeNA, Scoreloop, Sulake etc.

18. Crazy business

I used to think that the adjective “insane” – as used in the phrase “insanely profitable” – was limited to Rovio’s Peter Vesterbacka.

The industry is clearly growing so fast that it – and the companion term “hyper growth” – are now being more widely deployed, though.

At least there seems to be some context. Off-the-record many companies in the space – even big ones such as Zynga – say they expect to double their mobile gaming revenues during 2012.

19. Back to core

At Mobile Games Forum, I unsuccessfully tried to invent a new phrase – free-layer-core.

The point was that the term ‘paidium’ (paid+freemium) was horrible, while free-layer-core attempted to describe the three-layered approach, where core gameplay is free and skill not time-based, additional blocks of content can be unlocked for a price, and in-game currency (available via pay or play) smooths over the cracks.

Since then, however, many more companies have announced they’re entering the mobile free-to-play space, specifically to address the needs of hardcore gaming, throwing another angle on the ‘core’ element of the proposition.

Examples include online companies such as Aeria Mobile, Facebook companies such as Kabam, start ups out of the console space such as Industrial Toys (ex-Bungie), all of which are joining incumbents such as Storm8, Glu Mobile and Z2Live.

Giving additional context to the move was ex-EA Mobile head Mitch Lasky (now a VC at Benchmark).

He pointed to the success of PC online title League of Legends in terms of providing higher monetisation than Facebook games, as well as strong retention and an easier route to gain eyeballs, as long as the game concept and quality match the audience’s demand.

20. Go global, think local

A very simple statement. The best mobile game developers and publishers are now releasing their games with support for at least eight languages, and often ten.

Add Japanese, Korea, Chinese, Polish and Russian to the core five European languages.

21. Don’t underestimate the value of a user

Of the previously points – both big and small – underlying most of them is user acquisition.

It’s sounds a nasty term as if you’re dragging people off the street and forcing them to play your game. It doesn’t have to be that way, though. Someone using Twitter to post a high score, or telling their friends to download and play Draw Something or Words With Friends are the softest – and best – way to build an audience.

However, for most developers, the days of getting discovered via the App Store, or great reviews are long gone.

App store featuring will always be sort after but is never guaranteed, and as any good marketeer will tell you, it’s all about what you can guarantee.

And that’s why everyone just calls it user acquisition. It’s about spending money to get a volume of eyeballs pointed at your game, and pretty much everyone does it – whether it’s

FreeAppADay, incentivised installs via Tapjoy, standard mobile advertising or the dark arts of bot farms and similar services.

The problem is that as the industry grows ever more profitable, there are companies with deep enough pockets to buy up much of this traffic, at least for short period of time.

The most recent example was Zynga buying all the available users it could for the launch of Dream Heights. Similarly, it’s expected that GREE will be spending much of its promised $50 million GREE Platform marketing budget on user acquisition, something its deal with FreeAppADay underlines.

Not only is this driving up the per user costs to a level some consider to be unsustainable, it’s also disrupting the channels even small companies were using to build their businesses.

The good news is that even companies the size of Zynga and GREE can’t corner the market, but the bad news is that for the next couple of months, they might try.

As one insider pointed out, while it might look like a short term measure, it’s very difficult to accurately estimate the worth of a user in the longterm.

But the success of Zynga on Facebook and GREE and DeNA on their Japanese social networks demonstrates that when it works, it’s the fastest way to build a massively profitable company. (Source: Pocket Gamer)