最近几年我写了不少关于谷歌和苹果的文章，而且从购买、推荐他们的股票中也获利不少。很奇怪，每回我开始为这两者作文的时候，脑中蹦出的第一个想法就是，这两只股票都会安然无恙到年终，甚至未来五年内都是如此。我还认为，应用软件服务行业很可能大发一笔，谷歌和苹果之间的竞争并不是一个零和游戏，它们同样会赢。

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每当我对自己的Android手机发表恶评时，大家总认为我痛恨谷歌，事实上我只是对手机蓝牙、手机汽车系统和电池寿命不满，但这并不意味我不看好谷歌股票行情。另外，对苹果也一样，我可能会提醒你乔布斯的某项决定是在开倒车，但这并不表示我就是个猥琐的怀恨者诅咒苹果股票惨跌。我只是站在客观地立场上批判这两者，所以，我再次“客观”地表明我的态度：苹果和谷歌都会大胜，无论是现在还是将来。

最近或者未来一段时间内，舆论主流关注的焦点无非就是iPhone与Android两个平台的地盘之争，这也正是我撰写此文的原因。但如果你想从智能手机的市场数据统计角度出发，解读这两者的胜算，我想只有一个数据真正管用，那就是智能手机在今年全球手机市场份额中只会占25%左右的比重，但这个比率会持续增长直到超过90%为止，这个过程就像今天最智能最昂贵的手机，总有一天会沦为明天最低能最廉价，但依然支持软件应用的落伍手机一样自然。

总而言之，谷歌和苹果都会赢，诺基亚也不例外，黑莓同样不会出局。

How Android and iPhone can both win
 
       I’ve been writing about Google and Apple a lot lately.  And I’ve been writing about Google and Apple for years actually and I have had some big wins owning and recommending their stocks for years now. I remember going head to head with some hedge fund guys in a debate in the Financial Times who argued that Google was fair value at $25 a share back when it first came public and in some sense I’d gotten long for my own hedge fund on the other side of their short, I guess.  Anyway, it got pretty heated though the FT and I know that those guys might have lost money fighting Google’s glory days of yore, but they did end up covering and making a lot of money for their partners for a few years there.  Dunno what they’re up to these days.

Anyway, it never ceases to amaze me, the emotional responses that come when I write just about anything about Apple and Google. I just happen to think that both stocks are set up here very nicely both into the year end and over the next five years.  And I think there’s going to be a ton of money made in apps, which means, I’m going to be writing about Google and Apple and recommending their stock a lot these days.  It doesn’t have to be a sum zero game between these two.

All the people who think I hate Google whenever I write anything negative about my Android experience — hey, I love my HTC Incredible, but the blue-tooth to car-phone system sucks and the battery life is brutal….that doesn’t mean I hate Google or think the stock is gonna crash.  Same goes for Apple and anytime I’ll remind you that what Steve Jobs did back when he and his board changed the strike price of his options back in the day without letting us shareholders know all about, wasn’t cool or that I wonder if their aggressive approach to locking customers into their closed eco-system is wise, doesn’t mean I trying to talk the stock down like a short hater.  I’m just trying to be objective.  And objectively, I’m thinking that both Apple and Google are set up to win and win big here and win soon and later too.

So I’ll keep writing about it like I have been for years.  Stick with the winners, eh?

And the reason I bring all this up is because of what you’ll be reading in the mainstream more and more in coming months — iPhone vs Android.  When you read all these fascinating statistics about these smartphone market share wars, just remember that smartphones are still only going to be about 25% or so of the global market this year.  That’ll gradually hit more than 90%marketshare as today’s smartest, most expensive phones become tomorrow’s dumbest, cheapest but obviously remain true app-enabled smartphones.

And that means both can win.  Nokia too.  And Blackberry can survive.  Notice how we can already say “Remember Palm?”   Will we soon be saying “Remember Windows Mobile?” （source：MarketWatch）

声明：本文中文为游戏邦翻译，英文原文采用MarketWatch，转载请保留版权信息，谢谢！