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Inside Social Apps:iOS和Android平台用户获取成本

发布时间:2012-02-13 17:13:01 Tags:,,,,

作者:AJ Glasser

Kim-Mai Cutler主持了一场关于手机营销的讨论会,参与者有Fiksu首席执行官Micah Adler、Flurry营销副总裁Peter Farago、Google全球手机销售和产品战略主管George Meredith和Tapjoy首席执行官Mihir Shah。以下是此次讨论会的内容。

Kim-Mai:苹果本周就操纵排行榜排名的问题对开发商发出警告。Peter,你认为这对市场会产生何种影响?未来排名会有何变动?

Peter:从我们过去数个月的观察结果来看,这些购买下载量会产生附加压力。去年第3季度早期,进入前25名可能只需要5万的下载量。第4季度的许多事情产生了附加压力,比如4S的发布和节假日的来临。1月份,获得7.5万到8万的下载量才能够进入前35名,周末的数据会更高。苹果发布iPhone 4S是个原因,但这些购买下载量的行为毫无疑问也产生了很大的影响。

Kim-Mai:现在,开发商已经无法依靠这些服务,这会导致应用类型和排行榜顶端的应用发生何种改变呢?

Peter:我们关注这个市场已有3到5年时间。如果你以用户为关注点并制作出令人惊叹的应用,它就能够到达排行榜前列。我们专注于帮助开发商理解用户。偶尔的障碍并不会导致有效花费营销资金的规则完全失势,任何人都不应当因此改变业务战略。

Mihir:我认为,我们应当庆祝苹果的这个举措。这种不停用计算机操纵下载应用的行为影响了用户对应用质量的判断,这从根本上损害了所有开发商的利益。我的观点是,整个行业都需要抛弃这种追求速度的做法。我们应当先通过理性的资金预算制作游戏,随后不断测试和优化,逐步提升质量然后通过其盈利。而不是像2011年和2010年那样,完全将注意力放在快速盈利上。

Peter:Android市场从未出现这个问题,该市场开发商考虑的更多是“产品的卸载率是多少?用户是否打开应用?”而这些似乎都不是iOS应用开发商的关注点。我认为,现在人们过分地关注应用的排名。他们应当专注于构建系列产品,由此来创造粉丝群体,就像Zynga在Facebook上的做法。

Micah:苹果已经采取了多种措施来制裁这种欺骗用户的应用,包括这次的行动,我完全赞成苹果公司的做法。

iOS-VS-Android(from moyeamedia.com)

iOS-VS-Android(from moyeamedia.com)

Kim-Mai:排名算法是否发生改变?

Micah:我们没有看到这方面有发生任何改变,但是我们确实看到那些不自然获得高位排名的应用在排行榜上消失了。几个月前,我们也尝试了这种服务,这种服务类似于广告网络,但是随后我们意识到,用户甚至都没有打开应用。自此之后,我们便不再使用这种方法。但是,我想这是iOS生态系统中公开的秘密。

Kim-Mai:他们发出了警告,但是当你开展传统广告宣传和爆炸式广告宣传时仍然会影响应用的排名。那么,确定“操纵”的标准是什么?

Micah:我不觉得存在某种标准。操纵和影响之间有着明显的区别。如果你获得了良好的评论,所有人都会下载你的应用。

Mihir:我认为爆炸式广告宣传属于已经过时的速度概念。我认为同其他人合作利用多种高质量渠道来宣传(游戏邦注:比如同其他开发商合作进行交叉推广或在TechCrunch上发表点评文章)需要耗费大量的时间。依我来看,爆炸式广告宣传是个过时的方法。现在,我们每天都可以开展营销。你可以同Fiksu、TapJoy或Flurry合作,这与其他媒介并没有差异,只是我们已经习惯于追求速度。但是,上述多数公司都有着完善的战略,可以让优秀的应用接触到用户,这与其他媒体公司并无差别。

George:在过去四五个月中,希望我们能够帮他们登上排行榜前25或50的大小广告商并不多。多数公司在与我们交谈时都表示,他们想要从基础开始逐步发展。

Kim-Mai:忠诚用户的获取成本指数因苹果的政策急速提升。现在,假期已结束,这种成本提升的速度是会加快还是减缓?

Micah:我们每个月都会公布每忠诚用户成本和每忠诚用户平均成本,忠诚用户指至少打开应用3次的用户。我还没看到1月份的数字,所以我无法做出推测。12月份的数字因假期和4S的发布而受到影响。第1季度的数据总是会较为温和,但其温和性将不及去年。

Kim-Mai:Android市场的成本数据如何?是iOS的一半还是1/3?

Micah:iOS和Android之间确实有一定差别。在Android上,我们能够以更廉价的成本获取下载量,用户在下载应用后使用的可能性也更高。出于某些原因,Android用户更容易转化为忠诚用户。但是,从Android用户身上获取盈利显得较为困难,他们付费的可能性较低。如果以至少打开3次应用来定义忠诚用户的话,那么Android用户的直接获取成本要低于iOS。

Peter:我们以平台为单位来测量用户的相对价值,Android用户的价值较低。Android中的IAP数据为每用户24美分。我们跟踪的是同时拥有iOS和Android版本的应用。也就是说,如果你在iOS上赚到1美元,那么在Android上只能赚到24美分。对于那些追求速度的公司来说,排行榜前25位应用的用户质量可能会让他们失望。位于排行榜顶端确实能够获得更多的下载量,但是这些用户会尝试大量的应用。现在我们看到iOS上有些只有7000次下载量的应用也能登上排行榜前15位。市场正在不断自我调整,通过排行榜来反映用户对应用质量的看法。

Kim-Mai:你们如何制定这两个平台市场计划?

George:我们正在挖掘平台跟踪的指标。在营销预算上,现在可以选择对半分成。最新版本的Android有大量更具盈利性的功能。系统中有许多新功能会使盈利获得提升。我觉得,现在应当同等看到这两个系统。

Mihir:如果你是个应用开发者,且有个可供发布的游戏,那么你便有可能接触到大量的用户基础。但是,你需要先进行测试。我认为,你不能够先期便投入大量资金,随后发现你的LTV比支付的费用还少。如果你是刚进入这个市场的开发者,你需要更谨慎地管理营销预算,因为你没有足够多的应用进行交叉推广。我们也参与到游戏开发中,承担50%的责任,这是我们运营游戏的第2种方式。在这种形式中,我们在病毒性、社交性和如何使用虚拟货币上同开发商们紧密配合。

Kim-Mai:但是,你们在Android上可以使用奖励性安装模式,不是吗?

Mihir:我理解你的想法,但我并不苟同。开发商的目标应当是构建ROI积极体验,同用户产生联系并构建不断成长的系列产品。你可以通过优秀应用来获得市场扩张,这样用户就不会卸载应用。类似于Google今天所宣称的那样,我们开放了市场中的竞标服务,也就是说允许广告商自行选择适合他们的竞标等级。采取这种做法之后,我们的转化率、参与用户数量和参与应用数量都提升了20%。

Kim-Mai:Android上的营销渠道和iOS有何不同?

Micah:在Android上做广告是种完全不同的感觉,奖励性服务网络产生了很大的影响。跟踪的数据也有所不同,有些网络显得更难以理解。

Kim-Mai:假设指标衡量和跟踪方面做得很好,你要如何用其开展营销呢?

Micah:跟踪层面或许George会更加清楚。

George:我会更谨慎地使用Android上的奖励性推广机制,因为目前还没有人了解Android的排名运算法则。而且,低质量用户可能会卸载或从未打开应用,这会影响到应用的排名。

Kim-Mai:为何你放弃了最低竞标?

Micah:我们不是广告代理商,我们是个将用户同开发商联系起来的开放平台。或许你获得了7000万到9000万的MAU,这与用户对应用的印象并无关联,这只是用户同我们广告的互动数据而已。当你达到这种情况时,你就可以创造出忠诚用户群体。不是所有人都需要《Dream Zoo》,但交流应用对所有人来说或许是必要的。大型广告商从根本上说可以比别人出更高的价位。我们希望广告商能够以培养忠诚用户为目标来开展营销。所以,他们必须自行作出选择。否则,所有用户的第一印象产品都将是Zynga这样的大公司。

George:如果搜索或Google展示广告能够发挥作用,那么应用的表现就很重要了。如果你的点击价值只有3美分,而其他人的点击是4或5美分,那么就表明这个市场已成熟。现在市场上还有足够的空间承载广告商选择多种营销方式。现在,我们更愈发地向统一系统发展,AdMob呈现的广告将与Google整合,这是很有意义的改进。

Micah:我为你们朝这个方向发展而感到高兴。这对市场和生态系统都有好处。这会使得该生态系统变得更为理性。我觉得这对发行商来说也很不错,因为他们可以越发接近每点击1美分的成本,这在已经几乎是不可能实现的。

Peter:我们从公司成立那天起就保持开放性。这是个开放的市场,所以你不能跟开发者或公司说“不,你不能这样做,你不能按照自己的想法来设定价格。”我觉得,到最后你必须衡量所获取用户的LVT。如果你查看每次点击成本模式,那么你的成本可能是7或8美元。我认为,用户在选择应用时还不会完全无视排名情况。从市场的长远发展来看,如果你告诉客户在我的网络中只能与我合作,这会妨碍市场的成长。我们深信目标定位做法,我们深信应用使用合适的价格才能找到最佳用户。你或许会发现,你花了5美分却只吸引住了5%的用户。我觉得,苹果和Android市场能以用户为出发点来考虑问题,这是件很好的事情。我认为,当用户无法进行选择时,问题就会随之出现。

Kim-Mai:Facebook或许不久后也会进入手机广告行业。这会让手机展示广告产生何种改变?

George:我觉得这会给广告商带来更多的用户,为手机开辟新的市场。人们不只是在使用Facebook应用,他们有时也会在电视平台的应用上花许多时间。这将为这片领域带来更多的广告商。我们会提供这个网络。我觉得这是种很棒的情况。这将为手机行业带来更多的广告商。与苹果那样,我们会看到更好的创意,这会使游戏质量获得提升。我们欢迎他们进入这个领域。

Kim-Mai:很显然,Facebook在品牌广告方面很强大,他们能否成为让用户接触到应用的渠道呢?

Micah:对我们来说,他们的计划很棒。他们将成为我们的另一个合作伙伴。

Kim-Mai:现在,排行榜似乎更具波动性。Glu Mobile表示,游戏的盈利巅峰期正在缩短。当开发商进入排行榜前列后会遇到什么情况?与6个月前相比,现在他们的盈利类型会有何变化?

Micah:就iOS而言,保住前25的排名很困难。如果你没有持续支付资金做广告,要维持排名会比6个月前更为困难。一旦你停止注入广告资金,你的排名就会下滑。这种情况6个月前是不会出现的。Android的情况便大为不同。

Peter:现在,前25的排行竞争更加激烈,所以不可能出现某些应用永久位居前25的情况。这个行业甚为关注曝光度,并在不断寻找解决问题的方法。现在,iOS上唯一的曝光度来源便是排名。所以,你必须寻找到合适的用户。在Android上,你可以寻求推荐。不关注前25排名的高质量用户很多,ROI并不体现在排名上。

Mihir:根据对AppData上前25名应用数据的比较,我觉得与之前相比最根本的差别就在于很少出现长期占据高榜单位置的应用。从现在起的1年时间里,你将看到开发商使用应用间的交叉推广和社交投入来手机市场上获得扩张。能够晋升排行榜前列的都是擅长于商业运作的公司。你会逐渐在榜单上看到Kabam这样的公司,他们通过网络分享游戏。GREE和DeNA在这方面也做得很好。我们正在过渡时期。我觉得,随后你会发现占据排行榜前25的不一定是某些特定的游戏,而是特定的公司。

Kim-Mai:你们有将来有何规划?

Mihir:我们需要不断成长。我们会继续同开发公司构建良好的关系,这样我们才能够提供更好的服务。

Micah:我期望市场未来1到2年内能够不断完善。现在,有许多资金雄厚的公司开始进驻手机市场。这是个很大的机遇。我们或许已经开发了1%的市场。

George:我们的市场或许才刚刚起步。智能手机用户越来越多,我觉得开发商将不再承担很大的应用销售压力。机遇才刚刚开始显现。

Micah:目前,手机广告费用只有电视广告的1%,但是从用户参与度来说,我觉得手机与电视已几无差别。

Peter:如果比较用户接受智能手机和接受PC和互联网的速度,你会发现其速度是PC的4倍,是互联网的2倍。目前,已激活的智能手机可能将近4亿部,各国有能力购买智能手机的中产阶级多达20亿。我们还有许多用户可供发掘,而且麦迪逊大道(游戏邦注:美国广告业的代名词)还未关注这片领域。如果确实存在竞争的话,这也是人为产生的,因为这个市场还有大量的成长空间。

游戏邦注:本文发稿于2012年2月8日,所涉时间、事件和数据均以此为准。(本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译,拒绝任何不保留版权的转载,如需转载请联系:游戏邦

Liveblogging Inside Social Apps: Acquiring Users on iOS and Android

AJ Glasser

We’re at the San Francisco Design center, blogging Inside Network’s third annual Inside Social Apps conference.

Kim-Mai Cutler hosts a panel on mobile marketing distribution featuring Fiksu CEO Micah Adler, Flurry’s VP Marketing Peter Farago, Google’s manager of global mobile sales and product strategy George Meredith and Tapjoy’s CEO Mihir Shah. The following is a paraphrased transcript of the discussion.

Kim-Mai: Apple sent out a warning to developers this week on manipulating chart rankings. Peter, what do you think the impact on the marketplace and the rankings is going to be?

Peter: What we’ve seen over the last several months is that these bought downloads have added pressure. If I go back to early Q3, to get into the top 25, it was maybe 50k downloads. There’s a lot of things in Q4 that added pressure — the 4S, the holidays — the bots added more to that. In January, we were seeing 75 and 80k downloads to get into the top 35 and even larger on weekends. Some of that is definitely [new iPhones]. But there has been substantial volume from these bots.

Kim-Mai: Now that developers can’t rely on these services, how will it change the types of apps and games that top the charts?

Peter: We look at the market from a 3 to 5 year approach. If you’re focusing on the consumer first and making an awesome app [it will get to the top of the charts]. We focus on helping developers understand the audience. The rules of doing efficient marketing spends haven’t gone away just because we’ve had a bump in the road. It shouldn’t change anybody’s business strategy.

Mihir: I think we should applaud the move. Offshore bots where a computer is gaming downloads to make users think an app is good is fundamentally damaging to all of us. My point is that the entire industry needs to get away from this velocity discussion. That we need a direct response component. It needs to be more about well-though-through spend to get your game out, test it, optimize it, to get more and then monetize it… Rather than 2011 and 2010, which were dominated by discussions of velocity.

Peter: There was never this problem on Android. It was “what’s your uninstall rate? Do users open the app?” None of these things seem to matter on the iOS app. I think too many people are focused on getting to the rankings. [They should be] focused on building franchises to create a fan base, like Zynga does on Facebook.

Micah: Apple has taken a lot of steps on cracking down on impostor apps and now this, which I completely agree with.

Kim-Mai: What about changes to the ranking algorithm?

Micah: We haven’t seen any changes, but we have seen unnaturally high apps disappear. We work with all the different sources for downloads and we were approached by these services many months ago and we have tried it — it was presented as an ad network — but it become obvious to us that… users weren’t even launching the app. So we stopped using it after that. But it’s been this well known secret I guess in the ecosystem.

Kim-Mai: They issued a warning, but when you run a traditional campaign or a burst campaign, it can have an affect on the rankings. So where is the line with manipulation?

Micah: I don’t think there is a line. There is a clear difference between manipulation and influence. If you get a good review, everyone will download your app.

Mihir: I think burst campaigns are in the dated concept of velocity. I think going for a variety of high quality channels with partners that do it the right way — the work with other developers to cross promote, that get good write ups in TechCrunch — that takes time. Burst campaigns in my opinion is a thing of the past. Now it’s all marketing day after day. You go through a Fiksu, you go through a TapJoy, you go through a Flurry. It’s no different than any other medium, but we were spoiled by velocity. But most have become much more sophisticated in the portfolio strategy of getting a great app in the hands of users the same way any other media company does it.

George: Over the last four or five months the number of advertisers both big and small coming to us and saying I want to be on the top 25 or top 50 is really small. Most people are coming to us saying they want to start small and build up.

Kim-Mai: The index cost of a loyal user has gone up dramatically because apple had a great quarter. Is that going to accelerate more or decelerate now that the holidays are over?

Micah: Every month we publish a cost per loyal user and the average cost per loyal user — one who launches the app at least three times. I haven’t seen the January numbers so I can’t speculate. The December numbers were impacted by the holiday season and the late launch of the 4s. Q1 is always soft but the relative softness will be less than previous years.

Kim-Mai: What do comparable costs look like on Android? Is it half the cost or a third?

Micah: There’s a few differences between iOS and Android. On Android we can acquire downloads more cheaply and they tend to be more likely to engage with an app once they’ve downloaded. Android users for whatever reason are easier to turn into loyal users. On the other hand, Android users are harder to monetize –they’re less likely to pull out their wallet. If you define cost per loyal user as at least three launches then the direct acquisition costs are cheaper on Android than iOS.

Peter: We measure what the relative value of a user would be by platform — Android users tend to be worth less. It’s about 24 cents per user by in-app purchase on Android. We looked at apps that have versions on iOS and Android. If you made a dollar on iOS, you made 24 cents on Android. Everyone gets apps and tablets under the tree — we saw up to 7 million activations over Christmas alone. The one thing I would add to the discussion is that a company is going to want velocity. They’re just going to be smarter about the quality of users in the top 25. If you’re in the top, you’re going to get more downloads. But what is quality of users in the top 25? They’re promiscuous users – they try a lot. We see people that get 7K downloads on iOS just by being in the top 15. The market is correcting itself to where everybody is thinking about quality of the app.

Kim-Mai: How do you devise a marketing plan by platform?

George: We ask what kind of metrics they’re tracking. So many launch without basic tracking. For the budget, at this point a 50/50 is fine. The latest version of Android has a lot more monetization features. There are a lot of new things that are going to make monetization better. I see no reason to not think about both equally.

Mihir: If you’re an app developer and you have a game to launch, you’re going to have access to a tremendous user base. But you need to test first. I don’t want you to spend a lot first and then find your LTV is lower than what you spent. You need to take it in a very measured responsible way if you’re a new developer and you don’t have 20 other apps where you can cross-promote, then get to the arbitrage point and spend. In our second title types – games that we’ve helped develop, which accounts for 50% of our inventory – we work very closely with developers on virality and social and how to use virtual currency.

Kim-Mai: On Android you can use incentivized installs, though?

Mihir: I hear you but I disagree with the question. The goal for the developer should be a ROI positive experience where they connect with the user and build up a franchise that will grow. You can get scale by proving you have a great app that doesn’t get uninstalled. We have a strong point of view there. Very similar to what Google announced today, we opened up the bidding in our marketplace — the point of that is to allow advertisers to self-select at the bidding level that makes sense for them. After we did that our network jumped 20 percent in conversions, number of users participating and number of apps participating.

Kim-Mai: How do the marketing channels on Android differ from the channels on iOS?

Micah: It’s important to have a lot of breadth. Advertising on Android is a very different experience and there’s much more impact from incentivized networks. The tracking is different and some networks are more opaque.

Kim-Mai: Assuming measuring is taken care of, how do you use marketing?

Micah: The tracking aspect that George brought up….

George: I would be cautious on incentivized on Android because nobody knows what the ranking formula on is on Android. Adding low quality users who may uninstall your app or never open it could actually hurt your ranking.

Kim-Mai: Why did you drop your minimum bid?

Mihir: We’re not an ad agency, we’re an open platform to connect users to advertisers. The issue of timing was simply one of scale. You get to an element of scale on the user side somewhere between 70 and 90 million MAU and that’s not impressions, that’s interactions with one of our ads. When you get to that scale, you create affinity groups. Not everyone there will want Dream Zoo. They may want communication apps. The big players can basically outbid everybody else. We want to introduce them based on our targeting in their affinity group. They have to self-select. Otherwise the first impression for everyone is going to be Zynga.

George: If search works or Google display works, it’s about performance. If your click is only worth three cents and if to somebody else things it’s four or five cents, it’s the maturity of the market. There’s enough volume in advertisers where that makes sense. Now that we’re getting closer to a unified system where the AdMob display ads are integrating with Google, it makes sense.

Micah: I applaud both of you for taking this step. It’s great for the marketplace, great for the ecosystem. This is a step toward a much more rational ecosystem. I think it’s good for publishers too because they can get those one cent clicks they wouldn’t have been able to get before.

Peter: We’ve been very open from day one. It’s an open marketplace so you can’t say to developers or companies “no you can’t do this, you can’t set the price you want.” I think at the end of the day, you have to measure the LVT of the user you acquired. If you look at a cost per click model your cost can be $7 or $8 dollars. I think the fact that people aren’t fully obsessed with ranking, being merchandised helps. We have a very long term view of the marketplace. If you tell users you can only work with me if you’re in my network, it impedes the growth of the market. We believe in targeting, we believe in finding the best consumer at the right price for the right app. You may find that you pay five cents only keep five out of 100 users. You might pay more. I think it’s great that Apple and the Android market are doing things that are better for the consumer. I think the problem comes when customers can’t choose. Constraints are things that ultimately impede the developer’s performance.

Kim-Mai: Facebook may make its mobile advertising debut soon. How will that change mobile display advertising?

George: I think the more people are selling mobile to advertisers, it opens up new markets to mobile. People are not just using the Facebook app, they’re spending more time with apps on TVs sometimes. It brings more advertisers into the space. We provide that network. I think it’s great. It’ll bring more advertisers to mobile. It’s the same with Apple. We saw better creative and it enhanced the game. We welcome it.

Kim-Mai: Obviously Facebook has strength in brand advertising, could they be a channel for getting users into apps?

Micah: For us, it’s great. It’s another partner to integrate with. Can’t wait ’til it happens.

Kim-Mai: It seems like the top charts are getting more volatile. Glu Mobile said the peak revenue period for games is shortening. What’s happened to people when they get to the top? What sorts of revenues are they seeing now compared to six months ago?

Micah: On iOS specifically it’s hard to maintain the top 25 position, harder than it was even six months ago without continued spend where you advertise across the network. If you stop, you will drop. That was not the case six months ago where you could get organic pick up. Android is very different.

Peter: There’s more competition for the top 25 spots. You can’t have the calcification of certain apps there forever because there’s only 25 top 25 spots and there’s a lot of competition for them. The industry talks about discovery a lot and solving that problem. Right now, ranked based discovery is the only thing on iOS. That’s where you have to find the right users. You look for recommendation, like on Android. There’s a lot of users that are qualified users that may not shop in the top 25 that you want to reach. The ROI is just not there. Now you’ve got to be disciplined.

Mihir: I think the fundamental difference we’re seeing as compared to AppData where people stay in the top 25 is we’re not seeing players dominating those positions. A year from now, you’re going to see people getting to scale in mobile with the ability to cross promote between titles and realize the social investments they’re making. They’re the guys that are the best in the biz. Increasingly you’ll see folks like Kabam where they share their games across their networks. GREE and DeNA do a great job of that. We’re in transition. I think then you’ll see the same publishers – not necessarily the same games – but the same companies in the top 25.

Kim-Mai: What are your thoughts on exits?

Mihir: We’ve got a lot of growing to do. We’re going to continue to build a great leadership company and then we’ll do great. Let’s try to capture value commercially.

Micah: I would expect there to be consolidation in the next year or two. There’s a lot of people coming into mobile with deep pockets. There’s a tremendous opportunity. We’ve tapped maybe one percent of the market.

George: We’re in maybe the first inning. Mobile will become so much more. I don’t think there is a lot of pressure to sell. The opportunity has only begun to be realized.

Micah: Mobile advertising is one percent of what’s being spent on TV but in terms of engagement, it’s about the same on mobile as it is on TV if not more so.

Peter: Exit conversations are always funny because you’ve only go three ways to go and the only two good ways you go is to build value. If you look at smartphone adoption and compare it to PC and internet adoption — it’s been four times as fast than PC and twice as fast than the internet. There are probably 400 million active smartphones out there and if you look at the middle class in every country that can afford smartphones, it’s about 2 billion people. We’re less than a quarter of the way there for max install base and we haven’t had Madison Avenue dollars coming in. If there’s competition it’s artificially generated because there’s so much room to grow. (Source: Inside Mobile Apps)


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