作者：Bernard Moon

之前，我预测的2011年将会发生的4件事情全部应验：Groupon成长放缓；Kinect将使虚拟现实再度热门；平板电脑市场突飞猛进；移动电子商务开始在美国起飞。

现在我将做出对2012年科技行业动向的预测：

1、亚马逊将丧失其税率优势

2012年，美国许多州都会取消对网络业务的销售税率优惠政策。此前，这种税率优惠让亚马逊在竞争中取得巨大的优势。许多消费者在实体店中挑选商品，然后通过亚马逊购买。我认为，税率提升会对亚马逊产生极大影响。大型零售商（游戏邦注：沃尔玛、塔吉特和百思买等）会成为调整后收获最大的商家，或许eBay也可以分一杯羹。

电子商务向外界展示每年最新和最热门的运营模型。尽管某些网站确实很吸引人，但是我不觉得它们能够像大型零售商那样从Amazon的下滑中获利。在这些新型电子商务公司中，多数都在后勤、仓库管理和获取用户方面苦苦挣扎，通过争斗来维持自身的业务。

2、RIM最终将被收购

尽管RIM仍然有着忠实的用户，因为公司依然有着手机设备中最好的邮件平台，但是我发现近几个月来这个强势逐渐丧失。有趣的是，许多黑莓手机死忠用户最终都转向使用“真正的”智能手机——iPhone或Android设备。

近期有消息透露，Amazon、微软、诺基亚、三星和HTC都有意收购RIM。我预测，RIM的盈利和销售量在2012年会变得更加糟糕，最终某些私募公司会将该公司收购并希望能够努力扭转局势。

3、Android获得50%的平板电脑市场份额

android-tablet(from dandroidtabletpc.com)

谷歌高管Andy Rubin近期声称，Android设备每日激活量达70万次左右。我在今年早期（游戏邦注：当时Amazon的Kindle Fire还未发布）曾预测称，Android将于2013年获得50%的平板电脑市场份额。但现在发现我错了，因为

Kindle Fire的面世，这个时间将提前到2012年。最新的IDC数据显示，Android的平板电脑市场份额为32.4%，因而在2012年末达到50%还是很有可能的。但iPad是款极为强大的设备，因而夺取其市场份额并非易事。

4、Zynga市值及其社交游戏市场份额将减半

现在，Zynga的市值超过60亿美元，其首席执行官Mark Pincus及其投资者的表现相当出色，而且这种态势还会持续下去。但是我认为行业高估了Zynga市值，以EA作为对比便可知晓。现在，这两家公司的市值都超过60亿美元，但是Zynga的盈利为5.97亿美元，而EA的盈利为36亿美元。因而，我担心的是该公司明年还能否保住社交游戏领头羊之位。

人尽皆知的是，Zynga是个数据驱动成长的公司，创造出成功神话，但游戏仍然是个靠销量驱动的行业，你需要雇佣经验丰富的人来制作优秀的游戏。许多人都听说Zynga上市后有可能大量流失人才，而且Zynga还将工程师数量作为收购标准。所以我的猜想是，如果该公司继续采取这种发展模式，可能无法再吸引到行业中的优秀人才。2012年，社交游戏领域将被众多公司瓜分，而不是由一家帝国企业独霸市场。

我对Facebook和Foursquare在2012年的发展持乐观态度。我认为，Facebook进入Foursquare领域将产生巨大的影响，但后者已经巩固了自己在地理定位市场的统治地位，似乎不会在2012年受到威胁。（本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译，拒绝任何不保留版权的转载，如需转载请联系：游戏邦）

2012 predictions: It’s doom & gloom for Amazon, RIM and Zynga

Bernard Moon

The predictions I made for 2011 turned out pretty well, since I framed things like any good fortune teller or horoscope would have done. I was vague enough to allow flexibility but detailed enough to sound spot on. I would say I hit four for four:

✓ The Groupon juggernaut will slow down

✓ Virtual reality will be hot again … thanks to Kinect

✓ Tablet market explodes

✓ Mobile commerce poised for takeoff in the U.S.

In hindsight and as an entrepreneur, I would say that I wasn’t risk-taking enough in my predictions. Now that I’m putting together predictions for 2012, there’s a global crisis looming, Europe is about to collapse, China’s real estate bubble is bursting and the U.S. is possibly being sucked deeper into the economic abyss, so what do I have to lose? Especially if the Mayan predictions come true, no one will be around to mock my predictions in 2013. So doom and gloom plus bold and big is the general theme for this 5th annual edition of my technology predictions. And here they are:

Mojo Shifts from Amazon to Big Box Retailers

Several states will lift their sales tax amnesties for online businesses in 2012. Those amnesties have provided huge competitive advantage to Amazon. How many shoppers do you know who check out items at brick and mortar stores and then buy them on Amazon? I believe those days are numbered and Amazon will take a big blow once the amnesties are lifted. The companies to gain the most from this are big box retailers (i.e. Walmart, Target, Best Buy) and possibly eBay.

The ecommerce space has become like a Hollywood fitness guru that presents the latest, hottest biz model every year. It went from flash sales to vertical flash sales to curated ecommerce to LoMo social commerce to LoMo SoMo OhNo and so on. While some sites are making a killing, I don’t see them growing big enough to benefit significantly from Amazon’s loss as much as the big box retailers. Most of these new ecommerce companies struggle with logistics, inventory management, customer acquisition and fighting to maintain healthy margins as they work on those other areas.

RIM Finally Sells

RIM is like Mikey from the movie Swingers. Each misstep it makes leaves you cringing and yelling at it to stop. RIM still has a loyal following since it has the best email platform for mobile devices, but I’ve seen that stronghold crack in recent months. Anecdotally, some friends who were die-hard Blackberry users have finally shifted to “real” smartphones, whether the iPhone or an Android device.

The recent news of Amazon, Microsoft, Nokia, Samsung and HTC passing on acquiring RIM narrows the field of potential buyers. I predict revenue and sales numbers will only get worse in 2012, when eventually some private equity shop will come in and acquire the company with the hope of turning things around.

Android Takes 50% of the Tablet Market

Google’s Andy Rubin recently announced that 700,000 Android devices are being activated daily. The freight train continues, so I would recommend that Apple hire Denzel to stop this madness.

Earlier this year I predicted (even before hearing about Amazon’s Kindle Fire) that by 2013 Android would hold over 50% of the tablet market. I was wrong. It’ll happen by 2012 due to the Kindle Fire. The latest IDC figures have Android’s market share of tablets at 32.4%, so 50% by the end of 2012 might be considered a safe prediction. But the iPad is an amazing device, so market share won’t be easily taken. (Disclosure: my wife works on the Android team; nothing related to this article was discussed with her.)

Zynga Loses Half Its Market Cap and Hold on the Social Gaming Space

Right now Zynga has a market cap over $6 billion, so this prediction is not worth crying over. CEO Mark Pincus and his investors have done extremely well and will continue to do so. I believe Zynga is overvalued if you take EA as a comparable. Both are currently valued at over $6 billion, but Zynga generated $597 million in revenues while EA generated $3.6 billion in revenues. I don’t want to bore you with a numbers analysis, so I’ll focus on my primary concern about Zynga’s ability to maintain its leadership position in the social gaming space.

It’s well known that Zynga is data driven and created a fantastic formula for success, but gaming is still a hit-driven business, and you need to produce great games by talented people. Everyone’s heard that the floodgates of talent will pour out of Zynga once the lockup period is over or employees are fully vested. Also, Zynga has been making “headcount” acquisitions of companies based on their numbers of engineers, so I assume if it continues down this path, it won’t be able to obtain and attract the best talent in the market. The social gaming landscape will trend to multiple fiefdoms in 2012 rather than one great empire.

Not to be completely doom and gloom, I am bullish on Facebook and Foursquare for 2012. Facebook is here to stay as an essential part of Internet life. And Foursquare has proven me wrong. I thought Facebook’s entry into Foursquare’s space was going to be a big blow. Instead, the company has solidified its leadership position in the location-based market, and 2012 looks to be more of the same. What are your predictions for 2012? What do you think about my four main predictions? (Source: Venture Beat)