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探讨IPO之后的Zynga发展前景及未来方向

发布时间:2011-12-19 17:04:40 Tags:,,,,

在上周五的IPO中,Zynga股票首日收盘下跌了5%,这意味着该公司想要在西方免费社交游戏市场站稳脚跟还有很长的一段道路要走。

Zynga是继韩国Nexon之后的第二家于上周进行IPO的游戏公司,这两者首日收盘股价均低于最初要价。Zynga和Nexon在电子游戏领域中还有动视,EA和育碧等上市发行公司作为参照,在过去三年里,这些传统游戏公司的零售销售额一直呈现下滑趋势,难以保证投资者的信心,从中我们也不难理解Zynga及其免费模式等情况受到质疑的现象。另外,欧盟最近的动荡与不稳定都让众投资者开始对这个广阔的股票市场产生怀疑态度。

Zynga股市首日表现还是足以令投资者松下一口气,不致于让后者直接抛售股票扬长而去。但是真正的问题是,Zynga的下一步是什么?在IPO后,Zynga如何才能继续获得发展,是迈向移动领域,拓展国际市场,还是离开Facebook而选择其它社交游戏平台?

Zynga IPO(from latimesblogs.latimes.com)

Zynga IPO(from latimesblogs.latimes.com)

移动领域:能否在iOS或者Android市场中争得一席之地

对于Zynga来说,从Facebook中独立出来的最大希望在于iOS和Android,在这里,谷歌和苹果也都创造了快速发展且引人注目的游戏生态圈。而今年开始,Zynga接连遭遇了挫折,如Storm8的《Farm Story》和Playforge的《Zombie Farm》打败了其大热游戏《FarmVille》,来自西伯利亚的开发商也打败了排行榜常胜冠军《Zynga Poker》。

但是经过逐步的优化,通过收购《Words With Friends》开发商Newtoy以及发行《Dream Zoo》的行动都让我们看到了Zynga翻身战的效果。在《Dream Zoo》的推动下,Zynga在Android和iOS平台已经拥有了1300万的日活跃用户,这真的是一个很惊人的数字。虽然没有足够的数据支持,但是Zynga在手机设备上的日活跃用户可能已经大大超过其他开发商(游戏邦注:除了Rovio Mobile之外,后者声称自己在所有平台上的日活跃用户高达3千万)。

在2012年,我们便能够看到,手机领域是否真是帮助Zynga走出Facebook而趋向多样化的正确方向。

大略估计,成功的iOS游戏每个月的总收入在1百万至3百万美元之间,而一些上市手机游戏公司在截止9月份的第三季度收益为7百万至1千9百万美元。如此看来那些拥有排名前列游戏的私有企业每年也能够挣得5千万至1亿美元的收益。

而在美国iOS游戏市场前100排行榜中占据6个席位的Zynga自然大获其利。如此Zynga便不得不考虑Android和iOS在今后一年是否会比Facebook更有发展前景。这两个平台共拥有4亿5千万次设备激活量或者销量(游戏邦注:这个数据不包含那些更换设备的用户)。

然而,手机平台的一大缺点是,不论是Android或者iOS似乎都不能创造出Facebook的那种“赢家通吃”的环境。苹果也不会与Zynga签订一个五年协议,保证后者能够拥有在Facebook一样的优势和发展目标。而且,iPhone可以推动各种类型游戏的发展,包括休闲游戏,资源管理类游戏,掌机类角色扮演游戏以及第一人称射击游戏等。

国际化:展望亚洲市场

Zynga同样也开始拓展亚洲市场。但是在这些市场中,他们不得不面临与当地公司的竞争以及不同规章制度所带来的挑战。特别是在中国,Facebook在这里被限制访问,所以Zynga便转向与中国公司腾讯合作(腾讯是拥有7亿月活跃用户,而Facebook的月活跃用户是8亿5千万,并且根据报道,在腾讯排名第一的游戏每个月的收益高达160万美元)。而新浪微博正在采取与Facebook早期一样的做法,迅速占领着中国白领和大学生市场,并且开始创建属于自己的第三方平台。

韩国和日本也拥有非常成熟的社交和手机游戏产业。为了在这两个市场取得成功,Zynga需要与当地工作室展开合作,或者有针对性地推动旗下游戏的本土化。同时他们还需要发行一些新游戏,因为Zynga现在的游戏类型,如城市建设或农场类游戏等在亚洲市场已经趋于饱和。而Zynga的其它游戏,如《FrontierVille》或者《CastleVille》都因为带有太过浓郁的西方文化色彩而难为亚洲玩家所接受。

Zynga已经在欧洲和亚洲建立了工作室,但仍Facebook仍是其发行游戏的首要平台。例如,Zynga最新发行的3款游戏《CastleVille》,《Mafia Wars 2》以及《Empires & Allies》在Facebook上发行的第一天便同时推出10种不同语言版本。但亚洲社交网站最近才开始发行Zynga的早期游戏,而从某些情况看来,这些游戏并不算成功。

据报道,Zynga Japan(由前Tecmo Koei首席执行官Kenji Matsubara领导)在日本社交网站Mixi中发行了《FarmVille》和《Treasure Isle》的日本版本,并即将在Facebook外的其它网站发行更多游戏。Zynga在中国北京也设立了工作室,并开发了一款中国版的《CityVille》,称为《星佳城市》并在腾讯的开放平台发行,分布在腾讯朋友和Q-Zone的游戏中。但是在这些平台上却已经拥有许多城市建设游戏了。Zynga北京工作室创建于其收购的XPD Media,而这家公司目前也主要面向西方市场。

据我们所知,Zynga游戏还未进军其它国际社交网站,如Orkut或者VK.net。但是Zynga已经在欧洲开始了一系列的收购行动,虽然他们却还未明确是否在这一地区的设立地区工作室。

替代性平台:Google+是否有帮助?

帮助Zynga获得新生的第三种方法便是那些具有替代性的平台,如Google+。当Facebook的早期竞争对手,如MySpace相继衰弱时,Zynga选择将游戏撤离这些平台,而转向其它网站。例如,Google+已经拥有2款Zynga大受欢迎的游戏–《Texas HoldEm Poker》和《CityVille》,虽然没有明确数据表明这些游戏在该平台的成绩是否如Facebook那般出色,但是越来越多开发者选择在此发行游戏就已足够说明G+的价值。

为了早日脱离Facebook,Zynga甚至准备推出属于自己的游戏平台,Zynga Direct(亦称为Project Z或者Z-Live)。但Zynga Direct还是绑定了“Facebook Connect”功能(游戏邦注:网站为了使自己更加社交化,在首页加入“login with facebook”按钮,这样用户可以不用注册而直接通过已有的Facebook帐户来加入该网站)。但是同时,玩家即使没有Facebook帐户也能够在Zynga Direct中玩游戏,这也是他们走向独立的重要一步。不过我们现在暂不可得知独立的Zynga平台需依赖于多少现有的Facebook玩家,能够吸引多少手机用户的关注——我们甚至不知道Project Z是否会在2012年问世。

Facebook:还有发展的可能性吗?

Facebook作为Zynga最大的同盟也是束缚着他们向前发展的最大阻力,而其未来的发展更是让Zynga琢磨不透。该社交网站已经不再给游戏开发者创造一个持续高速发展的生态圈了。虽然在这个平台上仍然不断涌现出新款社交游戏,但是我们却再也看不到哪款游戏能够取得Zynga在2008年和2009年拥有的那般成就了。开发成本与用户获取成本的不断提高让更多人不得不相信,模仿Zynga早前的做法已经不可能在这个平台上取得成功。

开发者开始针对于这些改变做出调整,尝试一些全新的发展领域。例如Zynga竞争对手EA和育碧将视频游戏与社交游戏结合在一起(例如,《模拟人生社交版》、《Ghost Recon Commander》),育碧等公司也开始探索其它媒体形式,如根据电视节目改制内容,为新社交游戏创造更多的吸引力。而一些中端和小型游戏开发商也创造了一系列细分市场的社交游戏,获得了大量的忠实玩家,其游戏盈利性甚至超过了Zynga游戏。

Zynga在过去一年中也积极探索这三大新领域:将手机游戏《Words With Friends》推向了社交平台,同时借助主流传媒品牌和名人效应(游戏邦注:例如,与歌手LadyGaga在《FarmVille》等游戏中展开营销合作),提升原有游戏的粘性。Zynga也发行了一些新型游戏,如策略战斗游戏《Empires & Allies》。在2012年,Zynga可能会继续执行这些方法,并且可能会将自己从手机领域或国际市场中吸引到的新用户引入Facebook或者自己的游戏平台。(本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译,拒绝任何不保留版权的转载,如需转载请联系:游戏邦

What Does Life After IPO Look Like For Zynga?

With shares dipping 5%, Zynga’s $1 billion initial public offering Friday shows that there’s still a long way to go for the company that legitimized free-to-play social games in Western markets.

Following South Korea’s Nexon, Zynga is the second initial public offering from a gaming company in the last week that has seen its shares dip below the initial price. Unlike coupon site Groupon, which is still trading above its offer price, both Zynga and Nexon have comparable publicly-traded companies like video game publishers Activision, EA, and Ubisoft, against which revenue and profit multiples can be benchmarked. (Nevermind the fact that Zynga is profitable and Groupon is not.) Given that those companies have struggled to maintain investor in the last three years as confidence as mortar-and-brick retail sales dip, it’s easier to understand how Zynga is facing skepticism over more than just its free-to-play model. On top of that, uncertainty about the stability of the European Union has rattled investors in broader equity markets.

The consolation from Zynga’s day-one performance may be that the developer and its underwriters priced the offering effectively enough that the company didn’t leave money on the table for investors to pocket by immediately turning around and selling shares.

The real question is, where to next? The key to life after IPO for Zynga will be growth — on mobile, in international markets, and on alternative social game platforms outside of Facebook.

Mobile: Will There Be a Zynga of iOS or Android?
The most promising opportunity for independence from Facebook lies on iOS and Android, where Google and Apple have built attractive, fast-growing ecosystems for the same kind of games that are the heart of Zynga’s original business. Zynga started the year as an underdog with Storm8′s Farm Story and Playforge’s Zombie Farm beating the companion to its blowout hit FarmVille and a group of Siberian developers running circles around their poker app.

But with gradual optimization, a savvy and cheap acquisition of Words With Friends-maker Newtoy, and a promising launch in Dream Zoo have helped Zynga come around. It has 13 million daily actives on Android and iOS — a number that is sure to grow with the fracas around Alec Baldwin’s addiction to Words With Friends. Although there is no data to know for sure, Zynga probably has more daily active users on mobile devices than any other developer except for Rovio Mobile, which says it has 30 million daily actives across all platforms.

In 2012, we’ll find out if that becomes a big enough business to help the company diversify outside of Facebook in a meaningful way.

Ballpark figures have us putting high-grossing iOS games at between $1 and 3 million a month and there are several publicly traded mobile gaming companies that pulled in between $7 and 19 million in the quarter ending in September. That gives us a handful of privately-held companies with similarly-ranked games that are likely bringing in between $50 and 100 million in annualized revenue.

At this point with six titles in the iOS top grossing 100 in the U.S., Zynga is probably one of those. Then you have to consider that Android and iOS may be poised to have a larger combined footprint than Facebook in the next 12 months. The two platforms have 450 million cumulative device activations or sales behind them. (That number doesn’t deduplicate consumers who have replacement devices.)

One drawback, however, with mobile platforms is that neither Android or iOS seems structured to produce a winner-take-all environment in the way that Facebook has been. Apple certainly isn’t going to sign a five-year agreement guaranteeing Zynga the same kinds of advantages and growth targets that Facebook has. Plus, a variety of games can flourish on the iPhone from casual, resource management games to console-quality RPGs and first-person shooters.

International: Looking Toward Asia
Zynga is also starting to experiment with pushing its titles abroad into Asia. But those markets are extraordinarily competitive with homegrown incumbents and very different rules and regulations. This is especially true in China, where Facebook is banned and Zynga has had to go with Tencent instead. (Not that Tencent is unattractive –  its network of platforms boasts 700 million monthly actives to Facebook’s 850 million and the company told us in September that its top title is earning $1.6 million per month.) Sina Weibo, the new social networking darling that has quickly captured China’s white collar and college educated class the way Facebook originally did, is only just beginning to build its third-party platform.

South Korea and Japan also have a very mature social and mobile games industry. To succeed there, Zynga will need local studios and hyper-localized versions of its core franchises. It may even need to launch completely new franchises, as Zynga’s current wheelhouse of games covers genres that are already saturated on Asian networks like city-building and farming. Other Zynga games, like FrontierVille (a.k.a. Pioneer Trail) or CastleVille, would probably be too hard to adapt to an Asian audience given the heavy Western cultural influences in both games.

So far, Zynga has established studios in Europe and Asia but we still see the company relying primarily on Facebook for distribution. For example, the developer’s last three major launches — CastleVille, Mafia Wars 2, Empires & Allies — were all localized in more than 10 languages on Facebook from day one. Meanwhile, social networks in Asia are only just now getting releases of older Zynga games and in some cases, those games are failing.

Case in point: Zynga Japan — currently led by former Tecmo Koei CEO Kenji Matsubara — reportedly sunsetted both FarmVille (Farmvillage) and Treasure Isle (Treasure Island) on Japan’s Mixi social network and has yet to make any major game announcements for networks other than Facebook. In China, where Zynga has a studio in Beijing, the developer launched a version of CityVille called Zynga City on Tencent’s Open Platform, first with the Pengyou and Q-Zone game networks. But this game is one among many city-building games. Zynga’s Beijing studio, formed through the acquisition of XPD Media, is also more Western-facing for now.

As far as we know, Zynga has made no moves onto other international social game networks like Orkut or VK.net. The developer has made acquisitions in Europe, but hasn’t formally announced a regional office to oversee expansion in the region.

Alternative Platforms: Will Google+ Work?

The third area of new growth could be on alternative platforms like Google+. While early Facebook rivals like MySpace have declined so much so that Zynga has pulled its games off those platforms, other networks have been gaining traction. For example, Google+ already has two of Zynga’s larger franchises — Texas HoldEm Poker and CityVille. We don’t have any data though on how well those games are actually doing compared to Facebook, but the increasing number of social game developers launching on the platform suggests that G+ may be viable.

Zynga is also trying to grow its own platform off Facebook by launching a games platform, Zynga Direct (also called Project Z or Z-Live). But we see Facebook’s influence there too, as Zynga made an effort to point out the service’s integration with Facebook Connect at its Unleashed event this fall. However, it may be possible to play Zynga games on Zynga Direct without a Facebook account, which would be another step toward independence. The success of an independent Zynga platform depends on how much of its existing Facebook and mobile audience the developer can take with it when the service launches — and we don’t even know if that will be in 2012.

Facebook: Is it still possible to grow?

Facebook — Zynga’s greatest ally and number one weakness — is the one place where future growth is largely out of Zynga’s control. As a games platform, the social network no longer provides developers an ecosystem that can consistently sustain rapid growth. Though new social games still continue to launch on the platform, we’re not seeing the kinds of traffic Zynga enjoyed on Facebook in 2008 and 2009. Rising costs in development and user acquisition have led some to believe that the platform is no longer a place where new developers can find success by copying what Zynga has done in the past.

Developers’ strategies on the platform are starting to adapt to these changes, which could open up new growth areas. For example, Zynga rivals EA and Ubisoft have used it to leverage major video game franchises by creating companion and standalone social games married to those franchises (e.g. The Sims Social, Ghost Recon Commander, etc.). Ubisoft and others are exploring licensed media properties like TV shows as means of generating traction for new social games. Lastly, mid-market and small developers are producing niche genre social games with very loyal audiences and much higher monetization rates than Zynga’s games.

Zynga has explored all three of these areas with its game releases in the last year: The company has used the Words With Friends franchise to launch a growing companion social game. It also experimented with content releases for major media brands and celebrities to drive engagement in its existing games. Zynga has also launched some games in new genres, like strategy combat game Empires & Allies. Zynga will likely experiment more with these approaches in 2012, perhaps even migrating new users gained in mobile and international markets back to Facebook or onto its own games platform.(source:insidesocialgames


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