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每日观察:关注Zynga及Facebook上市准备等消息(11.30)

发布时间:2011-11-30 15:06:38 Tags:,,,

1)分析公司Cowen and Company最新报告显示,尽管Zynga新作《CastleVille》获得极大成功,但Zynga其他游戏的用户数量却开始大幅下滑。

《CastleVille》发布于本月初,上线两周后的用户达到1740万,成为Facebook平台上用户规模排名第6的游戏。

CastleVille(from insidesocialgames.com)

CastleVille(from insidesocialgames.com)

在此期间,Zynga其他9款Facebook主打游戏的DAU总数下滑100万,其后两周的DAU又下降了280万。

分析师Doug Creutz指出,Zynga新游戏玩家多数是从旧款Zynga游戏中导入,并不属于新玩家或者同时体验多款Zynga游戏的玩家。他称尽管《CastleVille》发布首周的DAU就达到600万,但第二周的DAU仅增长90万。

据其他报道所称,Zynga另一款于10月份发布的新游戏《Mafia Wars 2》MAU也已从高峰期的250万下滑至目前的90万。

2)Take-Two首席执行官Strauss Zelnick在最近的Reuters Global Media峰会上发言表示,他认为Zynga游戏运营模式存在一个问题,即用户来得快去得也快。

Strauss Zelnick(from forbes.com)

Strauss Zelnick(from forbes.com)

他称Zynga游戏用户获取成本、市场营销成长都在上升,Zynga应该为投资者提供更多用户数据详情,好让大家进一步了解其未来财务发展情况。

3)俄罗斯跨平台游戏公司Nival日前向俄罗斯在线游戏工作室Bytex投资,以便后者利用这笔资金向Facebook正式发布《Berserk: The Cataclysm》这款卡片收集游戏。据AppData数据显示,该游戏在10月底开始测试期间的MAU为1000。

nival-logo(from news.bigdownload.com)

nival-logo(from news.bigdownload.com)

Nival创始人及总裁Sergey Orlovskiy表示,Bytex是业内领先的HTML5网页游戏开发商,他们非常重视跨平台游戏及创新技术,希望帮助Bytex巩固这种领先地位。

Nival上个月在乌克兰成立了一家新手机游戏工作室,除了Nival之外。YoYo Games、MocoSpace、Zynga和迪士尼等公司也对HTML5这种新技术表现出了极大的兴趣。

4)北美放射学会(简称RSNA)日前发布的报告指出,暴力视频游戏确实会对人类的大脑产生影响。据news.com澳洲报道,澳大利亚心理健康专家正考虑将视频游戏上瘾与网瘾现象划入精神病范畴。

violent video game(from venturebeat)

violent video game(from venturebeat)

RSNA的调查样本是22名年龄介于18-22岁的青年男子,该学会让其中的11名男子在第一周玩10个小时的暴力视频游戏,第二周则完全禁止玩游戏,并让另外11名男子在这两周内都不得玩暴力视频游戏。

在执行这个研究实验前后,研究人员都通过MRI途径检测了这些男子的大脑运行情况。结果表明经过一周时间,玩暴力游戏群体的左脑额下叶在情绪测试中的活跃性下降,其大脑前扣带回皮层在测试中的活跃性也不如玩游戏之前的情况。

印第安那州大学医学院副教授及医师Yang Wang表示,这种结果表明暴力视频游戏会对大脑功能造成长期影响。

5)迪士尼Playdom将于12月关闭其社交游戏《Social City》,观察者称Facebook游戏平均生命周期为12至18个月,而《Social City》上线已将近两年,出现这一结果并不令人意外,并称开发商应重点关注那些可以盈利的游戏,关闭运营不济的项目以免浪费资源。

social city(from AppData)

social city(from AppData)

《Social City》是Playdom被迪士尼收购前的代表作品,曾于2010年10月获得GDC Online的游戏开发者精选大奖,甚至还是较早入驻Android平台的社交游戏之一。

但该游戏在2010年春季高峰期的MAU是1260万,DAU是310万,但在过去6个月中的MAU、DAU均严重下滑,目前的DAU/MAU比值甚至低于10%(游戏邦注:这个比例正是许多开发商关闭项目的一个基准)。Playdom另一款游戏《Market Street》的命运与此相似,它发布于2010年,但在2011年8月就已闭门谢客。

6)据《华尔街日报》报道,Facebook近日宣称将于明年第二季度上市,届时将筹资100亿美元,其市值预计将达1000亿美元。

facebook-IPO-Mark-Zuckerberg(from newstonight.net)

facebook-IPO-Mark-Zuckerberg(from newstonight.net)

有匿名消息源透露,Facebook正与美国证券交易委员会商讨提交上市文件的时间。据称Facebook将于今年底前提交相关文件,该公司IPO有可能受到股市行情和欧洲经济状况的影响。

Facebook曾于本月初宣布将把西雅图办公室迁至面积更大的市区,截止今年8月,Facebook在西雅图约有50名工程师,现在还打算在当地再招聘12名工程师。

7)据Fortune报道,Zynga将于下周一开始进行IPO路演,其首席执行官Mark Pincus、首席运营官John Schappert和首席财务官David Wehner等高管将现身该活动,但Zynga并未透露将于何地、向何人展开路演。

zynga farmville money(from blog.games.com)

zynga farmville money(from blog.games.com)

Zynga在7月份提交的说明文件显示,公司计划筹资10亿美元,其承销商包括摩根斯坦利、高盛、美洲银行-美林证券、巴克莱银行、JP Morgan Chase & Co.以及Allen & Company。(本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译,拒绝任何不保留版权的转载,如需转载请联系:游戏邦

1)Analyst: Zynga’s Castleville Success Offset By Other Declining Titles

by Mike Rose

A new report from analyst firm Cowen and Company suggests that, while social games giant Zynga has seen great success from its latest release Castleville, the decline in users for its other titles has offset much of the potential growth.

Castleville launched earlier this month, and two weeks after its release had already reached 17.4 million users, making it the sixth biggest game on Facebook, in terms of audience size.

Cowen’s Doug Creutz notes that the title has achieved success, and is currently now tied for second place with Farmville with 6.9 million DAUs a piece.

However, the report explains that despite the increase in users, “November has to be a disappointment” for the company due to a decline in users for its other titles.

Zynga’s other nine major Facebook titles saw a collective decline of 1 million DAUs in the two weeks before Castleville’s launch. In the two weeks that followed, they saw further DAU decline of 2.8 million.

Creutz suggests that current Zynga gamers are simply moving from old Zynga games to new ones, rather than the game picking up brand new players or these current users playing multiple Zynga games at once. He also notes that while DAU growth for Castleville was 6 million in its first week, the increase during week two was only 900,000 in comparison.

The report adds to growing concerns over Zynga’s future. Other recent reports suggest that Zynga employees are treated badly, while elsewhere it is noted that one of Zynga’s latest games, Mafia Wars 2, has fallen relatively flat with players, dropping from a high of 2.5 million monthly users after its October launch to a current mark of 900,000. (source:gamasutra

2) Take-Two CEO Zelnick Doubts Zynga’s ‘Sketchy’ Metrics

by Frank Cifaldi

Massively succesful social gaming company Zynga (FarmVille, CityVille) is ramping up for its initial public offering in the coming weeks, but a lack of data related to user churn may keep investors at bay.

That’s according to Take-Two CEO Strauss Zelnick, who spoke at length about the company at the Reuters Global Media Summit on Tuesday.

“They churn quite quickly and they get new customers. That is their model,” he said.

“I think they have disclosure issues, I think you are seeing their acquisition costs go up, marketing costs go up and they have very high churn.”

According to Zelnick, the company needs to provide investors with more details on its user churn in order to give a clearer picture of its financial future, saying that the company “hasn’t gone public yet because their metrics are sketchy.”

Reuters reported Tuesday that Zynga will embark on its IPO road show starting next week, giving a series of presentations to investors before offering shares on Nasdaq, which the company plans to do before the year is up.(source:gamasutra

3)Nival Invests In HTML5 Game Dev Bytex

by Kyle Orland

Moscow-based strategy game specialists Nival has made an investment in Saransk, Russia-based HTML5 developer Bytex, the studio behind online collectible card game Berserk: The Cataclysm.

Nival didn’t disclose the size of its investment in Bytex, but Nival’s money and expertise will be used to help Bytex launch Berserk, which has attracted an audience of 1,000 monthly active users since launching a beta test in late October, according to AppData.

“Bytex is leading the online games industry in developing a great browser-based gaming experience through HTML5, an emerging technology for cross-platform gaming,” Nival founder and president Sergey Orlovskiy said in a statement.

“We want to help them grow this leadership position, which is very relevant to Nival. We view cross-platform gaming and innovation as two core company values,” he continued.

The new investment comes after Nival opened a new, Ukraine-based mobile studio last month, and follows Nival’s entrance into the ESA trade group in December.

Nival isn’t the first game maker to show interest in cross-platform development through HTML5 — companies from YoYo Games and MocoSpace to Zynga and Disney have all invested in the technology in some form of late.(source:gamasutra

4)Could a new game violence study and potential game addiction disorder affect the game market?

Heath Hooker

The age old debate over the effects of video games on the brain is back. On Monday, the Radiological Society of North America released information on new research that shows violent video games can effect the brain. At the same time, News.com Australia reported that mental health professionals in Australia are considering video game addiction and internet addition as official mental disorders.

These studies are far from definitive, given the large volume of game studies over the years. But if games are classified as harmful or addictive, that could limit their reach. Parents might proactively decide to crack down on violent video games, which have become mass-market products. Studies like this are a force that could shove gamers back into the closet.

The new research conducted by the RSNA took 22 young men, ages 18 to 29, and instructed 11 of the 22 males to play 10 hours of violent video games for one week and then stop playing completely the second week. The other 11 men were instructed to not play any violent video games throughout the two-week period.

Before, during and after the two-week period, the subjects were given tests via MRI’s to monitor their brain function. The results showed that after the week of game play, there was less activity in the left inferior frontal lobe during the emotional test and less activity in the anterior cingulate cortex during the counting test. Yang Wang, a medical doctor and an assistant research professor in the Department of Radiology and Imaging Sciences at Indiana University School of Medicine said, “These findings indicate that violent video game play has a long-term effect on brain functioning.”

While these findings are coming to light, mental health professionals in Australia are being asked by parents to include video game addiction and internet addiction in the next Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders. The professionals might declare the  addictions as an official disorder called pathological internet misuse. If that happens, parents are hoping this will encourage further study on the matter.

The news stirs up old memories of the negative stigma often associated with video games. As video games become more and more mainstream every year, studies and alleged official disorders like the ones mentioned are likely to pop up from time to time and thwart the advance of games as a universal medium. It also shows that, despite a victory in the U.S. Supreme Court, the issue of violent video games is far from dead.(source:venturebeat

5)Disney Playdom Sunsetting Social City After 21 Months and 12 Million MAU

AJ Glasser

Disney Playdom will sunset its long-running social game, Social City, this December just three months shy of the game’s second birthday on the Facebook platform.

As the approximate life cycle of a social game on Facebook seems to be roughly 12 to 18 months, the move comes as no surprise. It’s even less of a surprise, considering Disney Playdom’s recent success with Gardens of Time and its efforts to release new social games based on Disney properties in 2012. Effective resource management dictates that developers need to spend more on the games that are making money, and shut down ones that aren’t in order to allocate resources to new games.

It is rare, however, to see one of Facebook’s big five social game developers taking an older game offline even if it is more than 18 months old. Many of those games (particularly Zynga’s) still enjoy large audiences that, in theory, monetize at a higher rate than those who are playing a new game in its first three months of life. Image also keeps older games online, as many developers are defined by the success of their original games.

In the case of Social City (review here), it was one of several hit games Playdom offered in its pre-Disney acquisition days. Sorority Life and Mobsters were also “big name” games that attracted millions of users back in the early days of the Facebook and MySpace games platforms. Social City, however, got a larger amount of media attention than other pre-Disney Playdom games because it launched just before the Disney acquisition and went on to win a Game Developer Choice Award at GDC Online in October 2010. Due to its success, the game survived the initial upheaval after the acquisition (which saw the sunsetting of Playdom’s Big City Life, Treetopia, and Fanglies in October 2010) and even made it onto Android where some of Playdom’s competitors were experimenting with cross-platform social game experiences.

Social City’s Facebook traffic was in decline even then, however, down over 50% in monthly active users and over 80% in daily active users from its peak point of traffic at 12 .6million MAU and 3.1 million DAU seen in spring of 2010. In the last six months, MAU and DAU have continued to fall, eventually putting its DAU as a percentage of MAU — a metric that helps us see what kind of retention a social game enjoys — below 10%, which is where most developers usually shut down or abandon a game. It’s a similar story to Playdom’s Market Street, which launched in 2010 and was sunsetted in August 2011.(source:insidesocialgames

6)Report: Facebook planning IPO for the second quarter of 2012

by Cromwell Schubarth

Facebook Inc. is reportedly planning to go public in the second quarter of next year, a move that could raise as much as $10 billion and place its valuation at about $100 billion.

The Wall Street Journal cited unnamed sources who said that the Palo Alto social networking business is discussing the timing of its filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

The report said the filing could come before the end of this year.

The exact timing of the IPO is likely to be affected by the stock market and European economy, the Journal’s sources said.

Facebook announced earlier this month that it will move its Seattle office to a new downtown location with double the space of the old one. As of August, Facebook had roughly 50 engineers working in Seattle, and it currently lists 12 open engineering positions in Seattle on its Facebook careers page.(source:techflash


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