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论述2011年移动游戏领域的5大趋势

手机游戏是今年最热门的话题。其实这片市场过去几年就已开始起飞,并同智能手机&平板电脑市场及手机网络注册用户和应用下载量携手并进,以较快速度发展。因此我们可以预言这片市场未来前途将一片光明。下面我们将分享有关手机游戏领域的5个发展趋势。

1. 手机游戏营收2011年有望翻一番:美国手机游戏营收今年有望增至15.3亿美元,此数据比2010年多一倍。这是SNL Kagan的一大发现,此消息由ContentNext旗下的mocoNews.net首席记者Tricia Duryee公布。据Duryee所述:“到那时,手机领域将占美国游戏市场200亿美元营收的7.7%。从更远来看,SNL Kagan预测手机游戏营收在下个10年有望超越78.1亿美元。”而从全球范围来看,据伦敦数字媒体投资公司Digi-Capital的分析师预测,“到2014年,在线/手机游戏的收入有望增至440亿美元,占据全球电子游戏收益的一半”。

2. 免费增至模式存在潜能,但当前依然是付费游戏主导行业:市场调查公司Mintel最近发布一份有关美国手机游戏市场的报告。据报告显示,平均来看,免费增值应用的潜在营收胜过付费应用。此外,Mintel Senior分析师Billy Hulkowe在报告中写到:“苹果2009年秋天开始在应用商店中植入内置付费渠道,令众多开发者得以采用‘免费增值’模式(游戏邦注:在此模式中,玩家能够免费体验游戏,游戏或保持原有趣味性,或通过额外虚拟道具得到强化)。内置付费内容包含额外角色、强化功能、能量和玩法关卡。付费游戏基于游戏的销售价格创收,从99美分到2.99美元不等,或者更多,而免费增值游戏则能够凭借潜在虚拟交易在长期过程中获得更多营收。就市场调查公司Flurry 2010年6月追踪的21家iPhone游戏开发商的作品来看,每款游戏平均每年从每位用户身上创收14.66美元。据GigaOm估算,截至2011年11月,前100名高营收iPhone应用中有34%的作品采用免费增值模式。”但Mashable指出,虽然免费增值从理论上来说非常不错,但付费应用依然处于主导地位,就美国来看,付费应用2010年的收益占整个手机游戏市场总收入的92.5%。广告赞助的免费模式未来似乎将逐渐淡出市场。Mashable写到,“由于广告赞助的游戏未来将逐渐失去市场及免费增值应用给发行商创造更高潜在收益,发行商自然会继续锁定免费增值游戏领域,旨在提高自己的收益。因此未来付费和免费增值应用的收益将逐步趋于平衡。”

3. Nvidia重组资源,旨在更好支持手机游戏领域:Nvidia主要替工作站、台式电脑和手机设备生产图像处理器。该公司坐落在加利福尼亚州的圣克拉拉市,是个人电脑主板芯片组、图像处理器和游戏掌机集成电路的供应商。据Tom’s Hardware(游戏邦注:此平台提供最新硬件评论、新闻和技术发展情况)报道,Nvidia深深意识到游戏行业所发生的变化,因此重组资源,顺应此变化趋势。据Tom’s Hardware报道,“Nvidia的笔记本和Tegra业务高级产品公关经理Igor Stanek在接受Softpedia独家采访时表示,Nvidia如今将更多资源投放至手机领域。据Stanek表示,随着用户越来越喜欢在外玩游戏(不论是通过智能手机,还是平板电脑和笔记本),手机游戏的规模开始超越台式PC游戏。和公司应对PC领域的方式一样(尤其是Epic Games),GPU厂商逐步将目标拓展至手机游戏开发商,开始帮助他们优化Tegra SOCs应用。Stanek举例Tegra Zone应用商店(主要瞄准Android系统)说明用户可以为自己的Tegra设备寻找最佳游戏,无需在簇拥于Android Market和Amazon Appstore商店的应用中筛选内容。”

DS4Seekers from randymatheson.com

DS4Seekers from randymatheson.com

4. 汽车制造商通过谷歌街景制作大型捉迷藏游戏:雪铁龙+定位应用+游戏。这是法国汽车制造商雪铁龙推出的创造性组合。游戏叫做《DS4Seekers》,玩家有机会赢得雪铁龙DS4汽车。这背后的整体理念是什么?如Mashable所述:“玩家通过隐藏和收集虚拟DS4s获得积分。若你成功实现目标,便能获得积分。一个积分相当于一次抽奖机会。玩家获得的积分越多,最终获胜的机率就越大。若玩家玩的是手机版本(此内容目前尚未投放美国市场),积分就会翻倍。该公司早期所推项目的内容是让用户通过谷歌地图和谷歌街景寻找隐性汽车。若玩家处于隐藏DS4的1公里范围内,定位罗盘就会告诉你朝何处迈进。只要玩家靠近隐藏DS4,屏幕指针就会出现,告知玩家准确位置。”Mashable表示,Mini去年也在斯德哥尔摩发起类似活动。从中我们可以发现定位游戏无疑是种新兴类型。

5. 平板电脑游戏的兴起:平板电脑游戏是片庞大的市场,打破传统游戏原有硬件市场。iPad至今售出2500万台,有望变成下个热门游戏平台。此趋势“帮助苹果重新获得游戏开发者的青睐”。此外,据VentureBeat报道,“在‘the Rise of Tablet Games’座谈会上,Backflip Studios(游戏邦注:其售出的手机游戏达1亿份)CEO Julian Farrior表示,目前iPhone平台的移动游戏销量是iPad的10倍。虽然如此,他依然‘非常看好这片市场’,因为iPad在ARPU、广告营收和体验持久性上都比iPhone略胜一筹。Backflip平板电脑游戏《Army of Darkness Defense》的iPad用户ARPU要比iPhone高出42%。”此外,据Gameloft美洲地区发行副总裁Baudouin Corman表示,iPad设备的应用销售成绩更突出,因此Gameloft在iPad投放20多款游戏。据VentureBeat报道,“Glu Mobile的Mori表示,iPhone平台更多是大众化玩家,而iPad平台则拥有更多硬核玩家和早期用户。Glu在iPad发行的每款游戏都是针对该平台而量身打造的。Mori表示,iPad玩家在游戏中投入的时间更长。从战略角度看,Glu目前着眼于充分发挥iPad设备高规格图像和速度运作特点。他认为工作繁忙的用户如今开始体验更多游戏,因为设备非常便于操作;只要轻轻一按便能启动,就能立即开始游戏。”

Army of Darkness Defense from games-220v.blogspot.com

Army of Darkness Defense from games-220v.blogspot.com

游戏趋势不断变化。今天谈论的内容主要涉及移动、社交和定位元素。这些特点相互交错,上述移动行业的各趋势亦体现在整个游戏行业。因此开发者需留心竞争对手的动态,试着从中吸取经验。若你无法改变游戏规则,或影响行业趋势,那么试着及时进行预测,做出相应调整。因为手机和平板电脑游戏对游戏开发者而言无疑是下一件大事。(本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译,拒绝任何不保留版权的转载,如需转载请联系:游戏邦

5 Trends in Gaming 2011

Mobile gaming is a one of the hottest topics this year. In fact it has taken off in the past few years and it grows at a fast pace going hand in hand with the continued growth of Smartphone sales, tablet sales, mobile Internet subscribers and app downloads.  Thus we can predict a bright future for this industry. For that reason we decided to share 5 trends relevant for mobile game developers. Let’s take a look at them.

1. Mobile game revenues expected to double in 2011: U.S. mobile game revenues are expected to reach $1.53 billion this year, which is nearly double revenue as compared to 2010. This is one of the SNL Kagan findings reported by Tricia Duryee, the principal correspondent for ContentNext’s mocoNews.net. Duryee writes: “At that amount, the mobile industry will make up about 7.7 percent of the $20 billion U.S. games market. Looking further out, SNL Kagan anticipates mobile game revenues to top $7.81 billion in the next decade”. On global level, analysts from London-based digital media investment firm Digi – Capital predict that “online/mobile – game revenues will hit $44 billion and account for half of global video game revenue by 2014” writes John Harrison, a freelance writer for Portfolio.com.

2. The Freemium Model has potential, but currently paid games rule the industry: Market research firm Mintel recently published a report on the U.S. mobile gaming industry.  According to this report, on average potential revenue for freemium apps outweighs paid apps. Moreover,  as reported by Mashable, Mintel Senior Analyst Billy Hulkower writes in the report: “Apple enabled in-app purchases from its app store in the fall of 2009, allowing many developers to utilize the “freemium” model, in which the app is free to the user and the game can be enjoyed as is, or enhanced with additional virtual goods. In-app purchases include additional characters, enhancements, powers, and game play levels. Where a paid game may generate revenue from the sale price of the game from $0.99 to about $2.99 or more, a freemium game can actually earn greater revenues in the long run due to its potential ongoing stream of revenue from in-app purchases. Games tracked across 21 iPhone game makers in June 2010 by market research firm Flurry earned on average $14.66 per user per year. GigaOm estimated in November 2010 that 34% of the top 100 grossing apps (all types) on the iPhone used the freemium model.” However, Mashable points out that despite the fact that freemium model sounds great in theory, still the paid games are the ones which rule the industry bringing 92.5% of U.S. mobile gaming revenue in 2010. The free (ad- supported) model seems to lose popularity in future. “With ad-supported games lacking umph in coming years and freemium apps providing higher potential revenue for publishers, it seems natural that publishers will continue to innovate into the freemium space in hopes of increasing profits. As a result, we may see a balancing out of revenue between paid and freemium apps in coming years”, writes Mashable.

3. Nvidia is allocating resources to better support the mobile sector: Nvidia specializes in the manufacture of graphics-processor technologies for workstations, desktop computers, and mobile devices. The company, based in Santa Clara, California, is a major supplier of integrated circuits used for personal-computer motherboard chipsets, graphics processing units (GPUs), and game-consoles. Tom’s Hardware, which provides latest hardware reviews, news and technology developments, reports that the company recognized a shift in the gaming industry, thus it allocates its resources towards that shift.  “In an exclusive interview with Softpedia, Nvidia’s Senior Product PR Manager for notebooks and Tegra Igor Stanek said that Nvidia is now allocating resources to the mobile segments. According to Stanek, mobile gaming has gotten bigger than desktop PC gaming, as interest in gaming on the go – whether it’s on a smartphone, tablet or laptop – is on the rise. Much like it does with the PC sector (Epic Games especially), the GPU manufacturer is reaching out to mobile game developers to help them optimize their software for Tegra SOCs. Stanek points to the Tegra Zone app for Android as an example, indicating that consumers can find optimized games for their Tegra devices rather than sift through apps cluttering the Android Market and Amazon’s Appstore”, writes Tom’s Hardware.

4. Automaker creates giant hide & seek game using Google street view: Citroen + location-based apps + gaming. This is the creative combination that the French automaker -  Citroen is promoting.  It is called DS4Seekers and it gives you the chance to win a new Citroën DS4. What’s the whole idea behind? As Mashable reports: “You get points by hiding and collecting virtual DS4s. If you do that successfully, you get points. Since one point equals one prize drawing entry, the more points you get, the greater chance you have of winning. If you use the mobile app for the game (which doesn’t appear to be available to U.S. users), you double your points. The program, which launched earlier this month, uses Google Maps and Google Street View to find the invisible cars. If you’re within 1 kilometer of a hidden DS4, a location compass will show you which direction to go. Once you’re close to a hidden DS4, an onscreen pin will appear giving you the exact location”. Mini ran a similar program in Stockholm last year, reports Mashable. Thus we can see that location-based games are definitely an emerging category.

5. The rise of tablet gaming: Tablet gaming could be a huge market, disrupting traditional game hardware markets, writes VentureBeat. With more than 25 million units sold, the iPad shows its potential of becoming the next hot game platform. This trend is “helping Apple to swing developers back into its fold”, writes VentureBeat. Moreover, VentureBeat reports: “In our panel on the Rise of Tablet Games (moderated by George Jones of Tab Times), Julian Farrior, CEO of Backflip Studios, which has sold more than 100 million mobile games, said that current mobile games sell about 10 times more on the iPhone than they do on the iPad. Still, he is ”extremely bullish” because the iPad has higher average revenue per user (ARPU), higher advertising revenue, and a longer duration of game play. Backflip’s Army of Darkness Defense tablet game has a 42 percent higher ARPU with iPad users than iPhone users”. Moreover, according to Baudouin Corman, vice president of publishing in the Americas at Gameloft, sales per device are much higher on the iPad, thus Gameloft has more than 20 games on the iPad. “Mori at Glu Mobile, said there are more mass market gamers on the iPhone and more hardcore gamers and early adopters on the iPad. Every game Glu publishes for the iPad is tuned specifically for that platform. Mori said gamers play the iPad games for a longer period of time too. Strategically, Glu is focused on making use of the the iPad’s high-quality specifications for graphics and speed. He thinks busy users like himself play more games now than they ever did because the device is so easily accessible; it can turn on with the tap of a button and launch games immediately”, reports VentureBeat.

Gaming trends are changing. Today it’s all about being mobile, social, location – based…All these are interconnected and as we had an opportunity to see from the above presented trends, there are all getting incorporated in the game industry too. Thus, watch out the moves of your competition and try to learn from the same. If you are not able to change the rules of the game, or have impact on industry trends, then try to predict them on time and adjust to the same. Because mobile and tablet gaming are definitely the next big thing for game developers.(Source:seeqnce


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