作者：Markus Nigrin

“你是否认为成为手机应用独立开发者是个不错的主意？”

有趣的是，在过去几周里我一直被问到这个问题，我将在此从不同角度解析不同手机平台当前的发展现状。

为何要成为独立开发者

如果你还未尝试，何不趁现在？我很好奇为何从上周开始这个问题又突然跳了出来，想想看，可能有以下几个原因：

这并不是件一时兴起的事。苹果仍然在此大放异彩。某些应用程序也不会因为新产品的出现而隐匿起来。人们不会因为一觉醒来发现自己每个月购买20个应用是件荒谬的事（注意：很显然这是件不错的事，所以不用担心）。相反地，整个事态是真实存在着并迅速改变着整个计算机产业。

过去那些敢于放弃自己的工作而成为独立游戏开发者的人仍然不乏其数！

对于开发者来说常规的上班生活真的很烦人。一开会就要所有人停止手上的工作？比起正确的道理难道办公室政治更重要？功能累赘或者超负荷？整个工作架构已经过时了？

所有这些原因加上大公司的一些临时的改组决策（游戏邦注：如策略转变或者裁员）都为那些想成为独立开发者而跃跃欲试的人们提供了机会。

困扰开发群体的问题

将一群独立开发者集中在一起并询问他们关于不同平台存在何种潜力，或者他们有何成功的发行策略，你将能见识到一场生动的辩论会。现在还有很多事情悬而不决。如果你去浏览一些技术博客，你将会发现一些与困扰你的问题相矛盾的信息。

苹果走进了一个细分市场，这是封闭的生态圈必然发生的情况，并且与其他竞争者相安无事。他们的用户似乎对此不是很在乎？是不是？

50万的iOS应用程序？你是否真的能够制作出第50万零1款应用程序，并保证它能从中脱颖而出？

根据最近的一些帖子显示的情况，你也许不能在Android上捞到好处。

假设Android会在市场份额和用户数量等其他方面迅速扩张。

WP7很棒，尽管还没有多少人购买它的手机，但是它却大有潜力对吗？

惠普正在销售大量的电脑，他们必须卖出大量的平板电脑，是吧？

黑莓平板电脑Playbook的预告片真的很出色。

所以，人们到底从这些平台上赚了多少钱？你是否也有机会也像他们那样谋生？

iOS淘金热

我们首先以苹果为例。我们需要理解两个重要的问题。

1.你可以从iOS中赚个几百万

甚至不止这些，你可以从iOS最棒的应用程序中赚得更多的钱。虽然这是件非常困难的工作，但是却不是妄想，因为比起早前，现在有更多的iPhone/iPod/iPad用户每天将更多的钱投入这些应用程序。所以显然iOS时代“还未结束”，但要注意的是第2点。

2.iOS淘金热已经结束了

显然这与上一点相矛盾了。但是对于那些想要成为独立开发者的人而言，他们需要真正理解其中的区别所在。

我将在本文定义我理解中的iOS淘金热，即它意味着什么以及它为何会结束。我将使用一些与其他开发者商讨后得出的数据加以说明。我们要注意的是在这里并不存在两个完全相同的职业。

在第一个年头，即从2008年6月到2009年6月，你只要能在苹果上发行任何优秀的应用程序你便能够赚钱，可以说你基本上只需要编写并发行应用程序，少则可以赚个1、2万美元了，多则甚至是5万美元。

注意这是针对“优秀”的应用程序而言。注意典型的独立开发者每年都会推出一些应用程序或者随时保持更新。注意有些人在同样的时间内甚至赚得更多。

在第二个年头，大部分推出优秀应用的开发者能够赚得2000至1万美元，而也有一部分甚至获得了高达10万美元的收入。这主要取决于产品本身的魅力和特色，而且这时候开发者还得处理PR层面的事情。

而到了第三年，一小撮人能够赚得25万美元以上的收益，有些人可以赚得1万至10万美元，有些则面临能不能赚到2百至1千美元的问题。后面这种说法并非排版错误，因为我确实在最近也看过一些优秀的应用程序在iOS中惨遭失败了。

第三阶段的中间梯队主要来自那些富有吸引力或者获得推荐的产品，它们很快蹿升至榜单前列，但由于其他高质量竞争产品前仆后继，它们下滑也相当迅速。

我将头两年称之为淘金热时期。没错，这些高达百万的收入的确令人惊叹，但是中间层次的收入同样也具有吸引力而且更为重要，正是这些每年可为开发者带来2000至1万美元收入的应用程序维系着独立开发者的活力。当你询问独立开发者时，真正棘手的问题便是淘金热对他们现在的发展到底有何影响？

因为这些应用程序都还存在，且绝大部分仍在维护中且保持着更新。它们仍位于排行榜单中并产生收益。我早期绝大部分应用程序的收益为第一年的50%，但这个比例现在正缓慢下降中。我从其他独立开发者身上也听到类似的故事。

另外，一些早期应用的安装基数也确实过于庞大，它们为其开发者推出的新应用获取下载量，并跻身榜单前列创造了机会，而苹果似乎已开始限制这种非自然下载行为。开发者需密切关注这一点，因为它很可能让新晋开发者难以立足。

仔细阅读每个帖子。如果你找到一些在目前仍然保持成功的例子，那么你可以去了解它是如何获得成功，引用了多少前人成功的诀窍以及它们的成功是否会对你的游戏构成威胁。

好了，我们还是来说说一些“新鲜”的例子吧！

Android

早期我在Android上的付费应用只有iOS收益的9%。而且老实说，这种情况还是没有变化。都是相同的应用程序，相同的更新时间。如果你说随着时间的流逝iOS不再优秀了，那么我还想说

Android从来就不曾优秀过！在Android的应用商店中每天都有无数垃圾应用。我知道有些开发者通过在免费应用中投入广告而获得体面的收益，但是我却从未听说在Android有哪些独立开发者取得了真正的成功。

当我在一年前决定停止外包而自己编程时，我便必须选择一个投放平台，因为作为独立开发者我没有太多精力去兼顾两个不同平台。所以我选择了iOS，而且它也在后来变得更加强大了，同时我也仍在一直观察着Android的发展。我真的很喜欢2010年Google IO大会上开发者与开发者之间进行交流的这种氛围，非常开放，大家都畅所欲言。而与之相比的苹果全球开发者大会就显得较为拘谨。

但在2010年，苹果满足了一个又一个开发者的要求。更透明的评价过程？证明无误。更严格的安装基础更新？证明无误。关于漏洞修复更快速的评论？证明无误。更强大的应用盈利模式？反复考察后也是无误。各种要求不胜枚举。

另一方面，谷歌发行了Honeycomb系统。

在2010年春天，谷歌论坛上出现了一个很长的意愿清单，但是却没有一个能够实现。虽然有一些关于未来更新的承诺能够潜在地缓解一些事情，但是却没有一点可行性。主要的改观就是今年5月推了的一个更精确的图表系统，以主IAP功能，但其效能仍然有待观望。

现在，我更加看不上Android了。谷歌仍然留有机会将其庞大的安装基础转变成对开发者有利可图的产品。但是我不确定谷歌是否真的重视这一点，是否强大到能够让他们所有杰出的工程师在Android平台上投入精力。

如果你认为谷歌会为你带来经济效益，或者你是跨设备兼容性测试的受虐狂，那么你可以选择Android。作好曝光率为0的心理准备，只要你的应用一发行，立马会被谷歌引以为傲的每月4万多款新应用所湮没。

WP7

从一个更广泛的角度上来看，我喜欢微软的做法。事实上，有多种迹象表明他们“做到了”。他们努力地创造了一个生态圈，帮助所有参与者更好地谋生。如果这些手机获得了吸引力，而微软也持续听取开发者的意见，并相应地完善这个生态圈，特别是当他们抛出Xbox这张王牌时，那么WP7就有可能是我心目中的第3大平台，甚至是第2大平台。

其它问题

问题：Playbook，惠普的平板电脑或者其它即将发行的平台怎么样？

回答：我认为目前它们对于上述提到的三大系统并未存在太大威胁。

是否该成为独立开发者？

成为独立开发者能否谋生？从我去年的经验看来，这个问题的答案将依靠两个因素，而且与平台的选择并无直接关联：

1.你是否在强迫自己做一些正确的事，将职业道德与独立生活结合在一起，在紧凑的时间安排中发行产品？

2.在花光所有积蓄之前你有多少时限？

从其他开发者身上我听到了一些难以置信的故事。人们离开自己的工作而开始发行一些新游戏，并以惊人的速度保持游戏更新。在这个领域不存在任何借口，你只有用自己的游戏才能证明一切。在这里你必须拥有专业的编程才能。当我开始学习这些技巧时我真的觉得我的选择是一件极具冒险性的工作，而且需要我长期的精力和资金投入。

假设你有一个资历很高的前辈，而且他信任你的能力，认为你会有所成，那么关于问题2的答案便是1年。

就我个人而言，如今没有一个平台能够提供淘金热的环境了。也许iOS曾经有过这种盛况，在Android，WP7以及其它平台却从未有过，所以这是一个公平竞争的环境，但淘金热则意味着某个特定的平台能够让你更轻松地赚到钱。

如果只是一味地效仿或者仅仅提供“质量还不错的”应用程序，那么你便不可能去依赖任何一个平台而谋生。甚至于在这些平台上，任何一款优秀的应用程序都有可能惨遭失败。

也就是说，对于认真的创业者来说，iOS平台是他们迄今为止所作出的最正确且最安全的赌注。在这里，市场份额和设备发行都较为稳定，所以整个平台是呈现发展与改革的状态。通过最少的投资，你便可以锁定iPhone/iPod，iPad和Mac或者交替尝试三个带有强大支付安装基础的附属平台。在这里不会出现任何分裂问题，而且用户基础也是相当有保障的，这些都将为你的应用程序带来可观的利润。

我真心认为，如果你想要获得生存，那么你不应该想着如何从特定平台的市场份额中分红，而是应该着重考虑这些平台上所销售的应用程序，广告，IAP极其相应收入。

除此之外，我们还应该考虑细分市场中存在的潜力。特别是当你在执行一些外包工作时。不可否认，如果你的作品较为特别，那么便很有可能在一些特定的平台上赚取金钱。但是发些垃圾邮件去宣传劣质应用程序在iOS中就不是一个有效的策略。如果你真的想要创造一些很酷且很有创意的东西，真正落实自己的想法，那么如此看来iOS肯定遥遥领先于第2和第3个平台，不仅因为它能为开发者带来大量的利润，而且因为它能为新人开发者提供了大把的机会。

从过去的一些经验来看，那些来自于其他开发者身上的成功或者失败的故事都能够帮助你更好地做出决策。同时，你还应该仔细观察那些新发行的产品，问问自己那些开发者为何要选择某些特定平台发行应用。

游戏邦注：原文发表于2011年6月2日，所涉事件和数据均以当时为准。（本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译，拒绝任何不保留版权的转载，如需转载请联系：游戏邦）

Going Indie, June 2011

by Markus Nigrin

“Do you think it is a good idea to go Indie with mobile apps?”

Interesting enough, I got this question a lot the last few weeks. So as my first post returning to #idevblogaday, here is the answer I currently give to that question, as a snapshot covering the current state of the different platforms from an Indie dev perspective.

Why going Indie in June 2011

If you didn’t take the plunge already, why now? I was wondering the exact same thing as this question flamed up again the last weeks. I’d say there is a bunch of factors contributing to thisit was not just a hype. Not only is Apple still around, they kick some serious butt. Apps just don’t disappear from the news. People don’t suddenly wake up and realize that buying 20 apps per month is ridiculous (note: it is not, so don’t feel bad). Au contraire. The whole thing is real and shifting the whole computer industry, and fast most of those who dared to quit their job and start a life as independent developer in the past are… still around!

corporate work life out there for developers still mainly sucks. Conference calls anyone? Internal political reasons more important than doing the right thing?

Feature creep/overload? Outdated architectures? <insert more>

All of this combined with the occasional shake-ups (aka strategy change, aka lay-offs) every large company goes through at times provides a constant number of people for whom this question is very relevant.

World of Confusion

Put a group of Indie devs together and ask about the potential they see in different platforms or what release strategies they find successful and you sure will trigger a lively debate. A lot of those things are in the air right now. Browse the technology blogs and you run a good chance of adding a ton of conflicting messages to that confusion.

Apple is put (back) into a niche. This is what necessarily happens with a closed ecosystem and competitors are playing that well in the meantime. Not that consumers seem to really care. Or do they?

500000 iOS apps? Can you really make app Nr. 500,001 and be successful with that?

Supposedly you can’t make any money on Android per some very recent blog posts

Supposedly Android is on a massive roll with market share, user numbers, etc

WP7 is great, even if nobody is buying it. But oh the potential?

HP is selling so many computers, they must sell their tablet in huge numbers, right? When it comes out.

The TV spot for the Playbook is really nice

So how much money are people really making on those platforms? Will you have a chance doing this for a living?

The iOS gold rush

Let me start with the Apple platform first. There are two things that are important to understand, especially when reading number posts.

1. You CAN make millions on iOS

And this has not ended, in fact, you can make more money than ever with a top app on iOS. It is much much harder to get there, but it is possible and more iPhone/iPod/iPad owners spend more on apps every day than the day before. So it certainly is “not over”, but here is the thing

2. There WAS a gold rush on iOS and it IS over

This can easily be confused with the above statement. But it is very important to understand where the difference is for anybody thinking about going Indie.

Here is my definition of the iOS gold rush, what it meant and why it is over. I’m using rough number ranges solely based on discussions with other devs and only for illustration. Note there are not two similar careers out there!

In the first year, June 2008 to June 2009, putting any quality app up on Apple’s platform meant you had a certain chance of making significant $$, let’s say >50k, and a high chance of making let’s say 10-20k with no other effort than writing the app and publishing it.

Note the usage of the word “quality”. Note that a typical Indie dev puts out several apps per year or keeps a very successful app alive with updates. Note some people made much more than that in year one.

In the second year, a quality app had a certain chance of making >100k and a high chance of making between 2-10k. And anything in-between, depending on traction and feature. You also had to start doing PR.

This third year, a quality Indie app has a slim chance of making >250k, a small chance of making 10-100k and a risk of making $200-$1000. The latter is no typo, I have seen good quality apps completely tank even on iOS these days.

That third mid-range layer, kind of a new thing this year, comes from apps that got great traction and/or got featured, shot up the charts but dropped out again equally fast because of the enormous pressure the flood of high-quality apps creates.

Now, those first two years I call gold rush. Yeah, those millions were nice, the mid-range was attractive but most important, those almost guaranteed 2-10k that most small quality apps made per year kept a lot of Indies floating. The real tricky thing to understand when you ask any Indie who had apps out there for a while is how much of that gold-rush induced success is floating him today.

Because those apps are still around. Most well maintained and updated. They block chart positions and they still provide revenue. Most of my early apps provide me with a constant stream of somewhere around 50% of the first year revenue, although that is slowly declining. I hear similar stories from all early devs.

Also, those old install bases sometimes are really large. They provide a great platform for pushing new apps of those developers into the charts, a mechanism Apple slowly started to crack down on. And rightfully so, this is one to watch carefully as it might make it virtually impossible for newcomers to get a foot in the door.

Read ANY number post VERY carefully. If you read about any lasting success these days, make sure you understand how it was triggered, how much legacy success was used as a basis and if that is something you feel you can compete with your own venture.

So as this fruit seems to have dried out a little, let’s look at greener pastures?

Android

My early revenues on Android for paid apps were always around 9% of my iOS revenues. And honestly, that never changed. Similar apps, similar update cadence (none for some). If you think iOS got less great over time, I can tell you Android never was good. There is a CRAZY amount of crap apps flooding that store every day. I know some few devs making decent advertising revenue with free apps, but I have not read any recent success story or number post from an independent developer on Android and that’s just more than telling.

When I decided to stop outsourcing and rather code myself a year ago, I had to decide for a platform, as a single (learning) developer you can’t really do two. So I went with iOS, which back then simply was stronger, and I kept my eyes wide open on what happened at Android. See, I really liked how the dev advocates communicated with us devs at Google IO 2010. Very open, in the best sense of the word. WWDC in comparison was a bit more uptight in communication.

But then, in 2010, Apple fulfilled one developer request after the next. More transparent review process? Check. Update the installed base hard and fast to >4.0?

Check. Fast-path for reviews of bug fixes? Check. Ongoingly strong app monetization? Double-check. List goes on.

Google, on the other hand, released shiny Honeycomb.

There was a wishlist, a petition of things floating around in the Google Groups in Spring 2010. Pretty much nothing from that list got done. Some more promises on potential future updates potentially mitigating some stuff, nothing really tangible. The main thing that did happen was that a more sophisticated chart system was released this May. One year later. And IAP. Effect to be seen.

Right now, I’m less bullish on Android than ever. Google still has a chance to convert the huge install base into something viable and financially attractive for devs. I’m not sure it is high on their list and frankly, I’m not sure if Google is organized strong enough to harness all the brilliance their engineers clearly have into such an effort.

Go do Android if you believe Google will shift it into something financially sound soon and if you are a cross-device compatibility testing masochist. Prepare yourself for zero exposure from the market, the moment you release you will be buried by the 40k new apps per month that Google is so proud of.

WP7

I like what Microsoft does, from a big picture perspective. In fact, they show a lot of signals that they “get it”. Trying to create an ecosystem that creates enough value for participants to make a living. If those handsets gain any traction and Microsoft continues to listen to developers and improve their ecosystem accordingly, especially if they pull out the Xbox card, this would be my clear Nr. 3 platform to watch, trending towards Nr. 2.

Others

Q: What about the Playbook, the HP tablet and other great things that will come out soon?

A: In my opinion there is no serious contender in sight for the above mentioned three players.

Indie Yes or No?

Can one make a living going Indie? From all I saw over the last years, the answer depends on two factors that are not really tied to platform choice

1.can you force yourself into doing the right things, mixing a strong work ethic with all the other aspects of an independent’s life to release stuff with a tight cadence?

2.how much time do you have before you run out of money?

I have seen incredible things from other devs. People quitting their jobs and starting to release new games and updates with breathtaking speed. There are no real excuses in that area, your releases are highly visible. This requires a high level of seniority in programming. The refresher/learning approach I started with for myself is very risky and requires a longterm commitment/investment.

Assuming you have a high level of seniority and trust yourself to crank out stuff, the minimum answer to 2) is one year.

And the winner is…

For platform choice, as far as I am concerned, no platform right now provides a gold rush environment. That was nice for a while on iOS, never true on Android, not true on WP7 or anything else, so it is a level playing field, but ONLY for the gold rush aspect, meaning the idea that it is super easy to make money on a specific platform.

On none of those platforms can you make a living with me-too or “just decent quality” apps. On any of those platforms a good app can tank.

That said, for serious entrepreneurs, the iOS platform by far is your best and safest bet financially. The market share and device distribution is very solid, so is growth and innovation. With minimal investment you can target iPhone/iPod, iPad and Mac and alternate between three unique sub-platforms with a strong, well paying installed base. Fragmentation is under control and the customer base has proven again and again that it is willing to shell out money for apps.

I’m deeply convinced that if you want to make a living, the cake you want a share from is not the market share of any specific platform. It is the number of sales of apps, ad, iap and corresponding revenue on that platform that is the only thing interesting for you.

Granted, there is a potential in going niche. Especially when doing contract work. I’m sure there are strategies to make money on specific platforms if you do something very specific. Spam an appstore with crap apps? Not a great strategy on iOS. But if you mainly want to create cool, innovative stuff and feel you got what it takes to get your ideas to release, the reality is that iOS still is far ahead of Nr. 2 and Nr. 3 in terms of generating money for developers and in terms of odds for newcomers.

With some background knowledge, credible success or no-success stories from other Indies are your best friend in making that decision! Also, watch out where new cool stuff gets released and ask yourself why that developer chose that specific platform.

Did I do too less homework on a certain platform? Got success stories to share? Daring to place a bet on something completely different I don’t mention here? Please leave a comment!（source:pocketcyclone）