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每日观察:关注非Facebook社交游戏市场规模(10.11)

1)社交平台Viximo与SuperData Research最新发布的报告预测,2014年全球社交游戏总营收将达86亿美元,Facebook平台之外的社交游戏收益将从2011年的32亿美元增长至2014年的56亿美元。

social gaming market(from allfacebook)

social gaming market(from allfacebook)

Viximo认为非Facebook社交游戏主要有三大发展机遇:一是小型开发商团结力量,Zynga基本上称霸了Facebook社交游戏领域,小型开发商只有联合起来才能挑战其主导地位。二是Facebook强制推行Facebook Credits虚拟货币系统的做法,以及30%的收益分成令不少开发商颇为不满。三是许多游戏开发商认为Facebook限制病毒式传播渠道之后,Facebook游戏的发展也因此大受影响(Facebook最近甚至在不提前通知开发商的情况下,直接关闭了数款应用)。

Viximo和SuperData Research称荷兰、西班牙、土耳其、德国、巴西、俄罗斯将成为主要的非Facebook社交游戏市场(游戏邦注:据games报道,该调查还发现北美并非最大的西方社交游戏市场,俄罗斯和巴西两国分别有3500万和3260万社交游戏用户),这些地区的社交网络主导力量包括Hyves(荷兰)、Tuenti(西班牙)、VKontakte(俄罗斯)、VZnet(德国)、Yonja(土耳其)、Quepasa(拉美)、Orkut(主攻巴西市场)。

2)据AppData今年10月1日数据显示,在10月份的Facebook游戏前25强名单中,《模拟人生社交版》用户规模已逼近《CityVille》,该游戏在上个月的DAU位于第3名,MAU则是第5名。《模拟人生社交版》在本月的DAU和MAU榜单均位列第二名。

Top-25-MAU-Oct-1-2011(from AppData)

Top-25-MAU-Oct-1-2011(from AppData)

Top-25-DAU-Oct-1-2011(from AppData)

Top-25-DAU-Oct-1-2011(from AppData)

初次在榜单前25名露面的游戏不少,但仅有《Adventure World》是最新发布的游戏,EA PopCap的《祖玛闪电战》也重返前25名行列,值得注意的是Gaia Online游戏《Monster Galaxy》却已退出本月前25名榜单,在过去两个月中流失了83%以上的MAU和DAU。

3)据All Things Digital报道,Playdom联合创始人Rick Thompson在日前采访中表示,他认为当前多数社交游戏表现令人失望,它们再过两年就会失去现在这种吸引力,农场题材的游戏尤其如此,因为它们实际上只是一种偶尔可以到朋友的农场、水族箱串串门的游戏,并不具有真正的社交性。

Rick Thompson(from games)

Rick Thompson(from games)

他还表示,只重视增加用户数量的做法并不正确。除了Thompson之外,最近也有其他设计师提出了类似的看法,例如Jonathan Blow就曾表示目前的Facebook游戏只是在剥削玩家而已,并不具有任何深度。

4)社交游戏开发商Loot Drop、索尼在线娱乐前创意主管Laralyn McWilliams日前加入社交游戏发行商iWin团队,担任iWin创意副总裁,领导设计团队开发原创游戏。

Laralyn McWilliams(from mobygames.com)

Laralyn McWilliams(from mobygames.com)

Laralyn McWilliams是一名颇具影响力的MMO游戏元老,之前曾任Edge of Reality的游戏主管以及Pandemic Studios、High Voltage Software首席设计师。

iWin最近还宣布聘请Nick Rush、Randy Angle任公司高管,Rush之前是WonderHill首席创意官,曾负责监管Facebook游戏《Dragons of Atlantis》项目,而Angle则是一名接手过60多个手机游戏项目的行业老手。

5)据All Things Digital报道,Playdom将于今年秋季推出下一款新游戏《Secret Agent X》,玩家在游戏中需白天扮演家庭主妇的角色,晚上则变身为替一个神秘组织执行任务的特工。

Secret Agent X(from games)

Secret Agent X(from games)

该游戏目前正处于内部测试阶段,虽然Playdom发布的预告视频并未指出具体玩法,但根据该公司的描述,人们不难想象其中的“家庭”元素可能包含装饰房屋等内容。Playdom表示公司将分别于明年1月、3月和8月再推三款基于迪士尼品牌的新游戏。

6)分析公司Chitika最新数据显示,Google+在9月20日向公众开放服务之后两天的流量大幅上扬,但四天之后其流量开始回落到当初的水平(如下图所示)。

Google_plus_chart(from Chitika)

Google_plus_chart(from Chitika)

7)在本周的MAU增长最快的Facebook游戏榜单上,Zynga新游戏《Adventure World》(最近MAU为3757万)晋升至榜首,《CityVille》(最近MAU为7614万)则位居第二,EA游戏《模拟人生社交版》则因流失用户而失去第一名的席位,最近MAU为6621万。

Top Gainers This Week-Games(from AppData)

Top Gainers This Week-Games(from AppData)

观察者称Zynga上周推出的猫王营销活动已经开始奏效,《CityVille》用户在10月份仍会有所增长,但从《FarmVille》与Lady Gaga的品牌营销活动成果来看,这种增势较为短暂,不会推动游戏的长期发展。(本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译,如需转载请联系:游戏邦

1)Social Game Revenue Will Outgrow Facebook By 2014

by David Cohen

Despite its 800 million-plus members, Facebook is not the only game in town when it comes to social gaming, especially when venturing outside the confines of North America.

In fact, a study by SuperData Research, on behalf of social games platform Viximo, projected that the non-Facebook portion of the social gaming revenue pie will jump from $3.2 billion in 2011 to $5.6 billion in 2014, with the overall total (including Facebook) reaching $8.6 billion.

Viximo cites three primary factors creating opportunities for platforms other than Facebook.

1. Consolidation

Seven of the top 25 Facebook games in terms of monthly active users are from one developer, Zynga, which also boasts a multiyear agreement with the social network, giving the game company an advantage over smaller developers.

2. Facebook Credits

The use of Facebook Credits as a payment platform became mandatory for all game developers July 1, offering developers less flexibility. Having to share 30 percent of revenues is a big sore point.

3. Messaging Restrictions

Many game developers feel that the potential for viral growth was dampened by Facebook restrictions on the types of messages companies can post on users’ walls.

In fact, the social network recently went as far as to shut down several applications without warning.

Key Markets

Viximo and SuperData cited the Netherlands, Spain, Turkey, Germany, Brazil, and Russia as key growth markets, and the white paper includes profiles of the following non-U.S. social

networks:

Hyves (Netherlands)

Tuenti (Spain)

VKontakte (Russia)

VZnet (Germany)

Yonja (Turkey)

Quepasa (Latin America)

Orkut (mostly Brazil) (source:allfacebook

2)Top 25 Facebook Games for October 2011

By AJ Glasser

The Sims Social comes closer to CityVille going into the month of October on our list of top 25 Facebook games by size. Last month, the game debuted at No.3 in daily active users and No.5 by monthly active users.

There are some newcomers to our rankings this month, but only one of them is a newly-launched game. Zynga’s Adventure World went live in early September while Social Point’s Social Empires and DoubleDown Casino have been around for 10 months or more before finally hitting their all-time traffic highs in the last month. In the case of Social Point, it seems as though the game is benefiting from investor funding closed in July. As for not-quite-newcomers, EA PopCap’s Zuma Blitz returns to the rankings after a brief absence.

A notable absence from our list this month is Gaia Online’s Monster Galaxy. After a long period of sustained growth, the game has declined dramatically in the past two months or so, falling more than 83% across both MAU and DAU in that time period.(source:insidesocialgames

3)Playdom co-founder: Facebook farming games aren’t social games

by Joe Osborne

Rick Thompson, co-founder of Disney-owned social game studio Playdom, is not happy with the lot of social games. During an interview with All Things Digital (ATD), Thompson was asked if he finds many Facebook games enjoyable. “I think they are fairly scarce,” Thompson told ATD. While he did shout out to games like Kixeye’s Backyard Monsters and Gardens of Time by his own former company, Thompson said that the established powers in social games are having a hard time raising the bar.

“I tend to think that those will not be very interesting in another two years, and they aren’t social games,” Thompson said to ATD, referring specifically to the myriad of Facebook games that insist on farming mechanics. “They are single-player games with the possibility of visiting your friend’s aquarium – that’s not social.” (And you should already know just where Thompson is pointing.)

Despite this, Thompson says that the maturity of Facebook games is leaps and bounds beyond what it was just three years ago, mostly because of how much it costs developers to acquire new users ever since Facebook changed things up. But Thompson–now a social gaming veteran that has invested in companies like Funzio of Crime City fame to Idle Games–still sees companies that focus primarily on increasing players numbers as, well, doing it wrong.

Thompson isn’t alone here, either. A number of analysts and designers alike are calling the industry out. Most recently, Eedar analyst Jesse Divnich claimed that we’re on the verge of the next generation of social games. Designers like Braid creator Jonathan Blow, however, simply see the current lot of Facebook games as exploitative and not much more. (And we all know how Ian Bogost feels about the games.) Sadly, it likely won’t be until arguably forward-thinking games like IdleWorship become as profitable as, say, FarmVille that Facebook games begin to agree with Thompson’s sentiments on a wide scale.(source:games

4)Free Realms Creative Lead Laralyn McWilliams Joins iWin

by Frank Cifaldi

Former Loot Drop and Sony Online Entertainment creative lead Laralyn McWilliams leads a new round of hires at Facebook licensed game show-focused publisher iWin.

As vice president, creative, McWilliams will lead a design team to create original IP, an area in which the company currently lacks.

McWilliams is a highly influential online game leader, typically focused on MMOs. She was the former creative director on Free Realms at Sony Online Entertainment, as well as a former game director for Edge of Reality and lead designer for both Pandemic Studios and High Voltage Software.

The company also announced two other hires on Monday: Nick Rush will lead efforts in reating social games based on licensed game shows, and Randy Angle has been hired as the creative director of mobile games. Rush was formerly the chief creative officer at WonderHill, where he headed the design of Facebook game Dragons of Atlantis. Angle is a mobile veteran with over 60 titles under his belt.

“Laralyn, Randy and Nick are incredible additions to the company,” said iWin president Peter Negulescu. “We have assembled an all-star team to take iWin’s huge audience and beloved games across all platforms, with an expanded strategy around mobile and social games.”

Casual games portal iWin has been focusing on Facebook as of late, where it has positioned itself as the leader in licensed game show recreations. Its Family Feud currently attracts just under 1.9 million MAUs.(source:gamasutra

5)Playdom leads gamers into double life in Secret Agent X on Facebook

by Joe Osborne

By day, you’re a suburban soccer mom who brings dinner to the table for her kids. By night, you’re a secret agent working for an undercover organization that keeps the world safe. This is the general premise for Playdom’s next game since Disney’s GnomeTown, Secret Agent X. The game, set to launch this fall, pits you against the evil organization known as SCAM.

All Things Digital reports that the game is available in some international markets in a closed beta test. The Disney-owned developer released a teaser trailer that reveals next to nothing about its gameplay, but we can always image what it’ll be like. Based on what Playdom has told ATD, the game will send players on adventures using high-tech gadgets only to have them return home to the normal duties of suburban life.

It’s easy to envision “home” being the hub of the game in which you customize a house, while you explore large maps on missions as a secret agent. (Again, this is speculation.) Playdom tells ATD that, starting with Secret Agent X, the company will release a dozen games within the next year. Up to three of those games–coming in January, March and August 2012–will revolve around Disney brands, according to ATD.

Playdom has been under fire from analysts for dragging its feet into the social games race since Disney bought it for a whopping $563.2 million over a year ago. How does the developer plan to catch up to the likes of wooga, Playfish and possibly Zynga: Explore new concepts and leverage the bevy of Disney mega brands. “A year after the acquisition, we are successfully transitioning into an operating division within Disney,” Playdom COO Brad Serwin told ATD. “We are 100 percent back to work.”(source:games

6)Google Plus Traffic Drops, 1269% Gains Erased

By Jon Mitchell

googleplus150.jpgRemember when Google Plus traffic went up 1269% in one week? Well, you can scratch that. New traffic data from analytics firm Chitika show that the insurgent social network has erased those gains entirely.

Google Plus opened to the public on September 20, leading to the huge spike in interest that we reported, peaking around two days later. But just in the four days that followed, traffic sunk back down to where it was.

Chitika didn’t label the Y axis on its chart, but its “traffic index” shows the big peak over the same time period as the Experian Hitwise numbers we reported. The public launch generated tons of interest, but that interest wasn’t sustained for long.

We’ve put in a request to Chitika for more information about the study’s methodology, and we’ll update the post when we learn more.(source: readwriteweb

7)The Sims Social Slows Down on This Week’s List of Fastest-Growing Facebook Games by MAU

By AJ Glasser

The Sims Social loses ground on this week’s list of fastest-growing Facebook games by monthly active users as Zynga’s Adventure World and CityVille claim the top two spot.

Last week, we analyzed traffic patterns to determine whether or not The Sims Social stood a chance at unseating CityVille as the largest application on Facebook. A big variable we pointed out is Zynga’s ability to rally CityVille for a traffic spike this month as The Sims Social struggles to keep growth steady if not as rapid as it was in its early days. Thanks to an Enrique Iglesias campaign launched in CityVille last week, it looks as though the game will rally for a bit of growth in October. But as we learned from Lady Gaga’s experience with FarmVille, these integrations are more likely to show temporary lifts instead of long term upticks. We’ll see how things stand going in November.(source:insidesocialgames


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