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分析电子游戏完成率下降的原因和解决对策

发布时间:2011-09-19 14:45:52 Tags:,,,

作者:Blake Snow

过去30年来,电子游戏迅速发展成可以同电影和音乐相提并论的主流娱乐方式。

但是,你或许并不知道玩家打通整个游戏的可能性有多大。

事实上,电子游戏的用户流失率(或称跳出率)确实令人惊叹。

长期担任动视公司产品承包人的Keith Fuller说道:“据我所知,90%的玩家都没有看到游戏的结局,除非他们在YouTube上看结局的视频剪辑。”

许多游戏都没有被用户吃透。

即便对象只局限于那些对游戏极度狂热的玩家,这一数据比例仍然没有提升的迹象。

Raptr营销副总裁John Lee(游戏邦注:他曾任Capcom、THQ和世嘉等公司高管)称:“10年之前,打通游戏的玩家比例也只有20%。”

而且,没有被玩家打通的可不只是那些乏味的游戏,即便是优秀的游戏也面临这种情形。以去年风行的游戏《荒野大镖客》为例,你或许会认为Rockstar的狂野西部题材游戏会受到更多的欢迎,因为这款游戏获得诸项大奖,但实际上这种想法是错误的。

据追踪逾2300万游戏次数的Raptr公司所述,只有10%的热心玩家完成了最后的任务。

为什么会出现这种情况呢?难道获得如此高评价的游戏无法吸引玩家吗?还是说玩家的注意力已经达到了某个临界点?

谁应该对此负责呢?开发者还是玩家?抑或是我们的文化?

确切来说以上三者都与此有关。

使命召唤(from cnn.com)

使命召唤(from cnn.com)

老龄化的玩家

21世纪初,游戏玩家平均年龄将近30岁,他们已经不像青少年时期那样频繁地玩游戏了。

时至今日,据娱乐软件协会数据显示,玩家平均年龄已达到37岁。最频繁购买游戏的人的平均年龄为41岁。他们都要培养自己的孩子,有自己的工作,而且会对失业感到担忧。

不仅如此,对于所有年龄段的玩家而言,时间也显得尤为珍贵。

Konami美国地区产品主管Jeremy Airey说道:“现在人们对游戏的注意时间更短,而且投入到游戏中的时间更为有限。”

他说道:“目前的数字销售要远多于之前。人们需要时间来查看Facebook页面,在Twitter上发布消息,管理他们的博客,玩自己的手机等,同时还要花时间玩游戏。如果他们觉得游戏的结局遥不可及,他们就会认为‘我没那么多的时间来打通游戏’,于是就不会再玩这款游戏了。”

换句话说,游戏需要的时间越长,玩家就越有可能放弃这款游戏。据howlongtobeat.com所述,《荒野大镖客》需要多达30个小时才能完成,只有少数玩家愿意花上这么长的时间。

游戏数量供过于求

新游戏的发布会影响到现有游戏,进一步分散玩家对某些游戏的注意力。

Fuller说道:“过去20年来,视频游戏行业的成长使得各种游戏大量涌入市场。现在,玩家数量更多了,但是每个玩家可以接触到的游戏的数量也更多了。由于玩家在每款游戏上花得时间更少了,自然也就没办法完成游戏。”

在8位机和16位机的年代了,玩家不仅有更多的时间,可以选择的游戏也相对较少。

当然,游戏的吸引力因题材和难度的不同而不同。Lee说道:“正如我们料想的那样,因为《荒野大镖客》游戏过于庞大,所以是完成率较低的游戏。”

游戏平台也对游戏的完成率造成影响。Backloggery.com是个帮助玩家在购买新游戏之前先完成原有游戏的网站,据该网站消息称,超短的网页游戏的完成率是85%,而PS3上内容丰富的游戏的完成率要低得多。

无论出于何种原因,玩家行为的改变已经促使开发者朝新的方向努力。对开发新手而言,他们更偏向于制作持续时间较短的游戏。

Konami的Airey说道:“以高端概念来创造游戏的时代已经远去。”他认为原因是这种开发需要耗费较高的成本。

Fuller认为还有更深层次的原因。

他说道:“我所制作的项目需要50个人耗费18个月的时间,而整个游戏过程只有20分钟。我们希望得到更高层次的视觉和音效真实性,栩栩如生的动画和敌人的行为以及电影般的过场,因而6个小时的可玩故事就需要100个人耗费两年的时间才能完成。以每人每月耗费1万美元来计算,整个开发成本为2400万美元。所以,你几乎找不到能够负担得起20个小时游戏体验时间的发行商。”

当然,为什么在多数玩家不会花时间通关的情况下,还会出现像《荒野大镖客》这样耗时20多个小时方能通关的游戏呢?答案是,多数发行商不会想要这么做。

多人在线游戏的发展

多人在线游戏的成长或许是造成这种情况的最大的因素。

视频游戏咨询公司TechSavvy首脑Scott Steinberg说道:“多人游戏的成长同样也对低完成率的发展趋势起到推波助澜的作用。游戏公司关注的是玩家在游戏中消费的地点、方式以及玩家关注的功能。结果,他们就不得不削弱了对单人游戏的关注,以期减少玩家在游戏中投入的时间、精力和资金。”

据Raptr数据所示,《使命召唤:黑色行动》以67个小时的平均游戏时间成为近期玩家体验最为频繁的游戏,接下来是《Halo: Reach》,为43个小时,第三是《战地:叛逆连队2》的18个小时。(游戏邦注:也就是说,如果玩家不把时间安排到多人游戏中的话,现在可能会完成更多的游戏。)

但是这并非真实情况。真实的情况是,随着玩家生活状况的改变,他们的品味也有所变化。玩家现在所喜欢的不是像《塞尔达》那样花很长时间不断开始和存档的游戏,他们更喜欢那种可以随时暂停和开始的小游戏。

Fuller说道:“这些日子里,我知道许多买下最新单人或多人射击游戏的玩家从未体验过单人模式。”

未来趋势——时间更短的游戏

所以我们必须注意到,现在的人们玩游戏的时间比过去更少了,而他们的选择比过去更多了。而且人们更倾向于玩耗时较短的多人模式,即便是在那些通关需要100个小时的重量级游戏中。

这是个问题吗?

Fuller认为这完全不是个问题。他说道:“这些玩家每月还会有1到2次的时间来玩这些耗时10多个小时的游戏。”

Steinberg同意他的观点,他说道:“无法杀死最后的BOSS或者拯救公主经,并不意味这你不会去体验达成目标的过程中的乐趣。”

不仅如此,玩家比较认同耗时较短的游戏。

Lee说道:“事实上,完成率正处在上升趋势中。正因为许多游戏从20-30小时下降到10小时,因而现在许多游戏有40%到50%的完成率。当然,这种情况的好与坏取决于你如何看待这个问题。这种状况比之前要好,但是仍然意味着游戏内容中超过半数未被玩家体验。现在,我们正处在需要尽量保持玩家注意力的阶段。如果某个用户不玩我们的游戏,那么他的朋友也不会玩。所以游戏应该更短些,而且拥有更多可下载内容。”

来自亚特兰大的玩家Casey Willis则认为:“我喜欢值得我投入时间和精力的游戏。毕竟,10个小时的优秀游戏内容要比20个小时的乏味内容要好得多。”

游戏邦注:本文发稿于2011年8月17日,所涉时间、事件和数据均以此为准。(本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译,如需转载请联系:游戏邦

Why most people don’t finish video games

Blake Snow

Once considered a cult pastime, video games have grown immensely in the last 30 years to become a mainstream fixture alongside movies and music.

But you wouldn’t know it by how often players finish their games.

In fact, the attrition (or bounce rate) of video games is pretty pathetic. “What I’ve been told as a blanket expectation is that 90% of players who start your game will never see the end of it unless they watch a clip on YouTube,” says Keith Fuller, a longtime production contractor for Activision.

That’s a lot of unfinished games.

And it doesn’t get much better when isolated to just avid gamers.

“Just 10 years ago, I recall some standard that only 20% of gamers ever finish a game,” says John Lee, VP of marketing at Raptr and former executive at Capcom, THQ and Sega.

And it’s not just dull games that go unfinished. Critically acclaimed ones do, too. Take last year’s “Red Dead Redemption.” You might think Rockstar’s gritty Western would be played more than others, given the praise it enjoyed, but you’d be wrong.

Only 10% of avid gamers completed the final mission, according to Raptr, which tracks more than 23 million gaming sessions.

Let that sink in for a minute: Of every 10 people who started playing the consensus “Game of the Year,” only one of them finished it.

How is that? Shouldn’t such a high-rated game keep people engaged? Or have player attention spans reached a breaking point?

Who’s to blame: The developer or the player? Or maybe it’s our culture?

The correct answer is, in fact, all of the above.

The aging gamer

At the beginning of the 21st century, the average gamer was pushing 30 — mid-to-late 20s, to be exact. They weren’t playing as often as they did in their adolescence, but in between entry-level jobs, earnest slacking and higher education, there was still ample time to game.

Fast forward to today, and the average gamer is 37, according to the Entertainment Software Association. The average age of the most frequent game buyer is 41 — nearing Just for Men-type levels. They’re raising kids. In the middle of a career. Worried about retirement.

Not only that, but time is precious for gamers of all ages.

“People have short attention spans and limited time now,” says Jeremy Airey, head of U.S. production at Konami.

“The amount of digital distractions now is far greater than it’s ever been before,” he says. “People need time to check their Facebook, send a Twitter (tweet), be witty on their blog, play with their phone — oh, and that game you made. If they feel as though the end is far away, they’ll simply say, ‘I don’t have time for that’ and stop playing.”

In other words, the longer the game, the higher probability a player will abandon it. “Red Dead Redemption” takes upward of 30 hours to complete, according to howlongtobeat.com, and few players are willing to commit that much time.

A glut of games

Not only that, but the accelerating rate at which new games are released cannibalizes existing games and further distracts the already inundated player.

“In the last two decades the growth of video games has produced a huge influx of games,” Fuller says. “There are more players today, but there are also more games per player. Since you can’t spend as much time on each game, you’re less likely to finish the one in front of you.”

Not only did gamers have more time in the eight- and 16-bit days, but they had fewer games to complete.

Of course, engagement levels vary by genre and difficulty. “As expected, ‘Red Dead Redemption’ is the lowest completed high-profile game because it’s so big,” Lee says.

The gaming platform has an impact on completion rates as well. Low-caloric and hyper-short web games are finished 85% of the time, according to Backloggery.com, a website that helps players finish the games they already own before buying new ones. Conversely, meatier games on PS3 are finished less often, according to Backloggery.

Either way, this shifting demand is more than enough to sway developers in a different direction. For starters, they are creating less epic games, at least in terms of duration.

“Long gone are the days of starting a game on a high-level concept,” says Konami’s Airey. The reason: “It’s costly,” he says.

Fuller says the devil is in the details.

“I worked on a project that took 50 people and 18 months to produce 20 minutes of game play,” he says. “With the expectations so high for visual and audio fidelity, lifelike animations, enemy behavior and movie-quality cinemas, it can take two years for a team of 100 people to create six hours of playable story. At an average burn rate of $10,000 per man month, that’s $24 million just in developer cost. You’re not likely to find a publisher that will foot the bill for extending that campaign to 20 hours.”

Of course, why make a 20-plus hour game when most players aren’t completing them, as is the case with “Red Dead Redemption”? The answer is, most publishers don’t.

Growth of online multiplayer

Which brings us to perhaps the biggest contributing factor in the decrease of lengthy campaign modes. It is this: Gamers may say they like playing epic single-player games. But when push comes to shove, what they really want is online multiplayer.

“The trend of low completion rates is equally driven by the growing importance of multiplayer,” says Scott Steinberg, head of video game consulting firm TechSavvy. “Companies are more aware than ever of where and how games are being consumed, and what features players look for. As a result, they’re de-emphasizing single-player, which seem to demand lower levels of player time, energy and investment.”

Case in point: “Call of Duty: Black Ops.” At an average of 67 hours played, it’s the most-played recent game by far, according to Raptr, followed by “Halo: Reach” at 43 hours, and “Bad Company 2″ at 18. (Perhaps today’s gamer would finish a lot more games if he weren’t so busy with multiplayer.)

But that’s not entirely true. What’s really happened is that with their change in lifestyle, gamer tastes have evolved. Instead of “Zelda”-like games that take longer to start and resume, they’re more inclined to play stop-and-go titles in bite-size games.

Need more convincing? “These days, I know many people who buy the latest single-player/multiplayer shooter (game) and never even bother to load the single-player,” Fuller says.

The future? Shorter games

So it’s come to this: People have less time to play games than they did before. They have more options than ever. And they’re more inclined to play quick-hit multiplayer modes, even at the expense of 100-hour epics.

Is that a problem?

Not at all, Fuller says. “They’re lucky to find the time to beat a 10-hour game once or twice a month,” he says of the average-age gamer. “They don’t feel cheated about shorter games and will just play a longer game for as many hours as their schedule allows before moving on to another title.

Steinberg agrees: “Just because you don’t slay the final boss or rescue the princess doesn’t mean you can’t see most of, if not all, of what a game has to offer in the hours leading up to it.”

Not only that, but gamers are already warming to the idea of shorter games.

“Completion rates are actually on the rise,” Lee says. “Many games now have a 40% to 50% completion rate, thanks to 10-hour campaigns instead of the 20-30 hour ones of yesteryear. Of course, that’s good or bad depending on how you look at it. It’s better than before. But it still means that more than half of all game content never gets appreciated.”

To counter that, Airey says extended play content will increasingly come from expansion packs, a sort of best-of-both-worlds approach.

“We’re at a stage now that we’re trying to find ways to keep mind share (consumer awareness about a product),” he says. “When the consumer is not playing our game, their friends aren’t either. So games will trend toward being shorter and then support the need for ‘more’ via downloadable content.”

No matter, says Casey Willis, an avid gamer from Atlanta. “Make a game worth my time and money, and I’ll be happy. After all, 10 hours of awesome is better than 20 hours of boring.” (Source: CNN)


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