作者：Karen Wilken

手机应用商店和应用开发的兴起

今年初，苹果App Store实现其100亿次应用下载目标。其惊人之处在于苹果仅用30个月时间就实现这个目标。苹果首部iPhone于2007年6月投放美国市场。当时智能手机仍被视作一大创新突破。该新设备用户能够以普通手机所无法实现的方式进行互动。这不再只是部手机——这是手机网页的开端。

iPhone问世时，苹果表示设备将支持Ajax格式的第三方网页应用，前提是应用维持iPhone界面的的外观和感觉。2008年3月，苹果向第三方开发商发布一套软件开发工具包，身处绝境的开发商纷纷着手瞄准苹果移动设备制作原生应用。

苹果App Store于2008年7月11日开始运作。商店最初呈现的应用主要是苹果开发的教育程序、移动商务和企业生产力工具。当时还没有《愤怒的小鸟》、《宝石迷阵》，或者是我个人喜欢的《深海垂钓》。游戏当时尚未入驻——它们随后才出现在商店中，而且非常受用户“追捧”，游戏内容在过去2年主导各应用商店目录。

flick fishing iphone from artoftheiphone.com

鉴于苹果常被视作智能手机应用开发和营销领域的先驱，我们有必要仔细探究其手机应用商业模式的发展情况。很多人都知道苹果在应用领域的主导地位，但需注意的是它不仅占据重要市场份额，还有效激发用户和开发者的想象。但苹果在这片市场并非一枝独秀。据IHS Screen Digest研究结果显示，苹果、诺基亚、谷歌和Research in Motion这4家主流手机应用商店2011年的总营收将增至38亿美元，这相比2010年提高77.7%，此增势主要归功于智能手机和平板电脑用户数量的增加。其中苹果的收入将增至29.1亿美元（游戏邦注：约占总市场份额的3/4）。到2011年底，下载应用的总量有望增至181亿次。分析人士预测，手机应用的发展趋势将会持续保持。

刚问世时，App Store只有552款iPhone应用，如今iTunes App Store的手机应用已超过45万款，开发商平均每天向苹果提交近700款新应用。手机应用商店的成功与制作原生iOS应用的第三方开发商数量及苹果所创模式（方便开发商通过应用创收）有很大关系。iTunes App Store让用户能够轻松发现和购买新应用，方便开发商基于作品创收。

app store from williamlong.info

基于网页的应用 Vs. 原生应用

手机应用商店和HTML5被《连线杂志》评为2009年度主要革新技术，所以我们2年后再次回顾此概念似乎恰到好处。应用商店使你的手机更像台迷你电脑。iPhone将控制装置转移至用户手中，所以用户能够决定“手机”的服务内容。

手机应用开发商基于特定目标设备（如iPhone、Android手机或黑莓）重新制作应用代码。在这种情况下，他们创造各个设备的原生应用。这些“受框架所束缚”的应用从网络中提取信息，但无需依托整个网络（例如跨平台兼容性、集中化、网页参数和更新性）。但据说原生应用在画面密集游戏中运作更快。原生应用充分发挥典型PC浏览器程序所有没有的设备功能，如加速计、GPS或蓝牙。

如今出售的多数手机都融入许多现代技术，让设备能够在超级快速的网络中运作，如4G或LTE。快速、可靠连接是运作HTML5之类网页协议的必要条件，所以用户可以通过网络访问应用，而非静坐于硬件设备面前。HTML5让开发商能够像制作网页页面那样制作应用，而非基于设备进行数次更新，而且即便用户通过浏览器访问内容，其也能够完美呈现。此外，通过HTML5开发商只需编码一次，因此HTML5有望令意图开发手机应用的公司省下大笔开发费用。HTML5还深入挖掘智能手机设备的丰富功能，如加速计和地理定位。

html 5 from w3.org

革新者：谷歌、Facebook Project Spartan和发行商

多数围绕HTML5网页模式的研究都和移动运算营收（游戏邦注：深究苹果市场份额，还有开发商们希望保留苹果App Store分成的30%收益）、政纲和创新自由密切相关。

过去几年，谷歌将大量资源投入手机Android OS和Chrome浏览器网页应用开发中，所以他们在HTML5表现突出自然不足为奇。Facebook阵营的一个秘密项目也开始浮出水面，项目旨在绕行iOS设备的App Store。Facebook创建新网页图片分享应用的消息早前外泄。Facebook的秘密项目是Project Spartan+。其是完全基于HTML5，目标是在无需制作原生版本或未于苹果App Store推广内容的情况下覆盖1亿多手机用户。事实上，平台将以全功能形式入驻苹果Safari（游戏邦注：Facebook在全球有近7亿用户，所以他们处在独特位置，有能力动摇苹果的市场地位，以此平台吸引此用户）。

另一核心用户群体——发行商，通过HTML5打破订阅推广渠道。苹果要求用户购买应用内容的月订阅服务，他们从这些再次购买内容中分成30%。苹果最近刚修改此政策。然而，杂志发行商和Rhapsody之类的音乐服务已涉足HTML5网页应用开发，旨在挣脱苹果的束缚。在这种情况下，这些机构能够节省开发成本，直接访问用户数据，而且呈现多平台更新内容也变得更加便捷。英国《金融时报》是著名的数字产品先驱，最近成功发行HTML5网页应用，迎合新手机平台的需求。

用户是撼动苹果地位的最终力量

虽然有些颇有名望的网页拥护者梦想有天网络标准会出现“单个代码适应所有平台”局面，但选择权依然掌握在用户手中。

在Lisa Gitleman著作《Always Already New》中，在比较新媒体公众和新媒体用户时作者提出一个要点。留声机刚问世时，新技术平民饶有兴致。思维的改变致使平民被视作用户，我们因此基于家庭消费品概念改变定义整个市场。我觉得二者存在共同之处。用户选择会将大量移动用户大众带入网页应用（游戏邦注：慢慢我们会看到此技术越来越融入大众生活，移动用户对此的了解也会逐步增多）。

我觉得除用户外还有另一有组织群体——开发者。开发者是不折不扣的用户。就像Gitleman指出的，用户不仅仅是技术的消费者，而且还在定义技术特性方面扮演重要角色。由于多数开发商基于HTML5技术创造应用，因此他们能够更好定义网页应用特性/优点，服务用户需求。

有关HTML5运用和用户方面还有众多话题。若游戏应用和电子书是原生应用下载目录最受欢迎的两个类型，HTML5技术是否还具备足够魅力和理由说服用户重新思考其购买行为？目前应用相比许多手机网站存在速度优势，这是因为它们本身能够存储和访问数据。快速网络、HTML5技术和用户选择将会令此优势在未来慢慢淡去光彩。

游戏邦注：原文发布于2011年7月14日，文章数据以当时为准。（本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译，如需转载请联系：游戏邦）

Why HTML 5 Will Kill (or seriously Injure) Mobile App Stores

by Karen Wilken

Rise of the Mobile App Store and Mobile App Development

Earlier this year, Apple’s App Store reached its 10 billionth web application download goal. What is amazing is that they did this in about 30 months’ time. Apple’s first iPhone was released to the US market at the end of June in 2007. At the time, the smartphone was seen as a huge leap forward in innovation. Users were able to interact with this new device in ways that they never could using just a cell phone on a wireless carrier. This was more than a phone – this was the beginning of the mobile web.

When the iPhone was released, Apple announced that the iPhone would support third-party web applications written in Ajax (asynchronous Javascript and XML) so long as the apps maintained the look and feel of the iPhone interface.  In March 2008, Apple released a software development kit to third-party developers and a slough of developers set out to create native applications for Apple mobile devices.

Apple’s App Store opened for business on July 11, 2008. The apps that were offered in the beginning were primarily Apple developed educational programs, mobile commerce and business productivity tools.  There was no Angry Birds, Bejeweled, or my personal favorite, Flick Fishing.  Games hadn’t really come along yet – they came along later and have proved to be “crazy popular” with users–dominating all app store categories over the last two years.

Considering that Apple is usually looked to as the pioneering force in smart phone app development and marketing, its worth taking a closer look at how their mobile app business model has grown and is evolving.  However one might feel about Apple’s dominance in the app market, it is true that they have captured not just a significant market share but also consumer’s and developers imaginations. But Apple is no longer alone in this market. According to research from IHS Screen Digest, the combined revenues from the four major mobile application stores by Apple, Nokia, Google and Research in Motion will be $3.8 billion in 2011.  This is up 77.7% from 2010, a spike likely due to the growing number of smartphone and tablet device users. Apple’s take will be around $2.91 billion (that’s about three-quarters share of the market).  The total number of downloaded apps in 2011 is expected to reach 18.1 billion by year-end.  And the analysts are predicting that the mobile app trend is just going to continue to grow.

When it launched, the App Store had just 552 iPhone applications, and today, mobile applications in the iTunes App Store exceeds 400,000 with developers submitting almost 700 new apps every day to Apple for review and testing.  The success of the mobile app store has a great deal to do with the sheer amount of third-party developers producing native applications to run on iOS and the structure that Apple created so developers could make money off their apps.  The iTunes App Store makes it very easy for users to discover and purchase new apps and also makes it very easy for developers to monetize their efforts.

Web based vs. Native applications

In 2009, Mobile App Stores and HTML5 were noted by Wired to be top technological disrupters of the year, so it seems fitting that we revisit that notion two years down the line. App stores (and smartphones) made your cell phone more like a mini computer. The iPhone shifted the control to consumers, so the user could decide what functions their “phone” served.

Developers of mobile applications rework their app’s code based on each target device (eg. iPhone, Android phone, or Blackberry).  In doing this, they are creating a native application for each device.  These “walled gardens” pull information from the web, but don’t necessarily fully exploit the advantages of the entire web (for example: cross platform compatibility, centralization, web metrics, updatability).  However, native apps are said to be faster for graphic-intensive games. Native apps take full advantage of features within the device that typical programs on PC based browsers can’t like the accelerometer, GPS or bluetooth.

Most phones sold today have more modern advances that allow them to operate on super fast networks, like 4G or LTE.  Fast, reliable connections are needed to run web protocols, like HTML5, so a user can access applications through the web, rather than it sitting on a hard drive.  HTML5 would allow developers to create apps much like they create web pages.  Developers would only have to create one app, rather than several iterations based on the device, and it would run seamlessly when called up through a browser.  Additionally, because it allows developers to code once, HTML5 has the potential to save companies wanting a mobile presence money on development costs.  HTML5 also taps into some of the rich features on smartphones, like the accelerometer and geo-location.

The Disrupters: Google, Facebook’s Project Spartan, and publishers

Most of the exploration surrounding the web based model using HTML5 has a great deal to do with money (tapping into Apple’s market share and also developers wanting to keep that 30% royalty fee the Apple App Store requires), politics and freedom of innovation in mobile computing.

Over the past few years, Google has placed loads of resources into the development of building web-based applications for it’s mobile Android OS and Chrome browser so it is no surprise that they are beating the HTML5 drum loudest.  A top secret project in the Facebook camp that would circumvent the App Store on iOS devices has also been leaked. News of Facebook’s new web based photo sharing app leaked three weeks ago.  Facebook’s hush hush project is called Project Spartan+. It’s totally HTML5 based and its aim is to reach over 100 million people with the app in the mobile space, without developing a native version or distributing it inside the Apple App Store.  In fact, the platform will launch with full functionality on Apple’s Safari.  Facebook has almost 700 million users worldwide so they are in a unique position to shake up Apple’s market leader status and attract users with this platform.

Another key user group, publishers, are using HTML5 to break up the distribution model around subscriptions.  Apple required monthly subscriptions to be purchased within the app and they take a whopping 30% from those reoccurring purchases.  Apple revised that policy recently.  Nonetheless, magazine publishers and music services like Rhapsody have been exploring HTML5 based web application development to break free of Apple shackles.  In doing so, these organizations will save in development costs, have a direct channel to their customer’s data, and can deliver multi-platform content updates are more efficiently.  UK-based Financial Times is known as a digital product leader and recently successfully launched an HTML5 web application to meet the demands of new mobile platforms.  You can test out the New York Times version here.

Consumers have the ultimate power to shake up Apple

While some high profile web proponents dream of a day that internet standards will take on a code once/fit all device development cycle, adoption will still be left up to users.

In Lisa Gitleman’s book, Always Already New, the author makes a salient point when contrasting the expressions New Media Publics and New Media Users.  In the case of the phonograph, when introduced to this device, new technology citizens became interested in it.  This change of thinking lead to citizens being looked upon as consumers, therefore defining an entire market system around the idea of home consumption.  I think there are some parallels with this case.  Consumer choice will drive the “massification” of moving users to HTML5 web-based applications.  There will gradually be more examples of how this technology can work for the public and it will gradually become more familiar to mobile users.

I feel that there is also another organized group working in tandem with consumers – developers.  Developers in every sense of the word are users. As Gitleman points out, users are not necessarily just consumers of a technology but they can take an active role in defining its features.  As more developers build applications with HTML5 technology they will be better able to define feature/benefits of web based applications to better serve the needs of consumers.

The story is going to be told between the uses (the differences in technology, the cost/benefits) of HTML5 and the users.  If game apps and e-books are the two most popular categories of native app downloads, is there enough pizzazz and reason behind HTML5 technology to convince consumers to rethink their purchase behavior? Right now, apps have a speed advantage over many mobile sites because they store and access data natively. Fast networks, HTML5 technologies, and consumer choice will make this advantage much less pronounced in the future.（Source：flipthemedia）