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Chris Carvalho分析游戏行业三大发展趋势

发布时间:2011-08-04 17:49:50 Tags:,,,,

作者:Chris Carvalho(Kabam公司业务开发、营销和财务主管)

对游戏行业多数人来说,硬核社交游戏似乎是个矛盾的东西。但是对Kabam而言,这却是个让公司在过去16个月的时间里,从25人的团队成长为拥有分布于三个大陆的多个工作室,并有逾400名雇员的大公司。尽管多数社交游戏的目标在于用休闲游戏特征来吸引中年人,但Kabam游戏却是为硬核玩家而设计的,这些玩家想要的是深层次的仿真和同步游戏。

Chris Carvalho(from industrygamers)

Chris Carvalho(from industrygamers)

浏览器和社交网络在线游戏的迅速成长引起了游戏业界的大量争论。数字内容和盈利模式对游戏的未来发展很重要,这是毋庸置疑的事实,争论的焦点是通过何种途径实现目标。主要有以下两个论点:

1、社交游戏(游戏邦注:如Facebook上的游戏)是个泡沫,不久将会破灭。

2、社交游戏永远不会受到真正玩家的认同,也就是那些钟情于主机和PC游戏的硬核玩家。

但是,现在的游戏行业正在发生一种重大变革,也是一种根本性的变革,这类似于iTune的出现对音乐行业造成的冲击。这种变革是科技发展带来的结果,改变了游戏玩家的行为和运营/经济模式。

以下是我们见到的关键趋势。

趋势1——盒装游戏(游戏邦注:包括主机、手持和PC游戏)盈利增长有所下滑。在线游戏不断成长,12至18个月后将超过离线游戏盈利。

尽管游戏行业整体复合年增长率为6%,深入调查会发现,所有的增长均非来自盒装软件游戏。在线市场增长率是整体游戏市场的3倍,而盒装游戏增长率有所下滑(如以下左图所示)。2008年,在线游戏(游戏邦注:包括社交网络、网页和手机平台)盈利还不如盒装游戏的一半。但预计到2012年,在线游戏在全世界市场所占份额将可能超过盒装主机/手机/PC游戏(如以下右图所示),而且会继续增长。

game market forecast(from industrygamers)

game market forecast(from industrygamers)

趋势2——社交网络模式将为传统游戏行业带来更强大的定价、运营和经济模式。

毫无疑问,与社交和手机游戏相比,主机或基于PC的游戏视觉效果要好得多。但两者间的重大差别在于,用户如何找到、体验或付费购买游戏。

凭借社群影响力和减少游戏体验障碍,社交模式将成为传统游戏模式的强大对手。传统模式要求用户在体验游戏之前先为平台(游戏邦注:如某款主机)和软件付费,起主导作用的是游戏公司。相比之下,社交模式中起主导作用的是用户。这种新模式将:

1、鼓励玩家与好友玩游戏或寻找有着同趣新朋友

2、支持玩家使用各种普遍的多功能设备来玩游戏

3、以免费模式为基础,允许用户先行体验再付费购买,而在购买时他们也能够选择自己想要的东西和付款的额度

4、支持玩家即时体验游戏,玩家无需前往商店购买或等待游戏下载完成,就可以直接通过浏览器体验游戏

注意:玩家可以在社交网络上同新老朋友一起玩游戏。重点在于,社交游戏移除了大量用户在传统游戏中遇到的障碍:无需下载、无需前往零售店购买、无需动用信用卡直到玩家愿意付费。

趋势3——社交游戏并不会成为垄断领域。但硬核游戏玩家也会渐渐转移平台,选择在Facebook上玩游戏。

社交游戏的特点是简单、相似且只需鼠标点击,Facebook上每天有数亿的用户在玩游戏。这些游戏最独特之处是它们所吸引的用户(游戏邦注:中年妇女和孩子的母亲)和游戏可玩性的层次(游戏邦注:不是非常复杂或带有竞争性)。这是第一代社交游戏的特征。自从我们于2009年末在Facebook上发布战略/帝国建设游戏《Kingdoms of Camelot》后,第二代产品——硬核社交游戏就此显现。这些游戏将玩家曾经在传统MMO战略和RPG游戏上体验过的游戏质量和功能,与社交网络的互动和连接性结合起来。我们最忠诚的用户每天玩游戏的时间长达4个小时。

这是专门为硬核玩家设计的游戏。它们需要一定的技能,也更具竞争性和挑战性,能够玩很长的时间。

而且,这些硬核玩家是在Facebook上玩这些游戏。Kabam近期联合Information Solutions Group开展的社交游戏玩家调查证实了这种趋势。我们的调查结果发现,在Facebook及其他社交网络上玩战略/RPG类型游戏的玩家中,有82%的人同时也在玩主机游戏。

现在,让我们回到之前提到的争论上。

社交游戏是个不久就会破灭的泡沫吗?很难下如此论断。现在正有数亿的用户正在玩这些游戏,而且他们也会在游戏中付费。现如今,在线游戏在游戏行业中占有数十亿美元的比重,预计其销售额明年就可以超过盒装游戏。

真正的游戏玩家会在Facebook上玩游戏吗?事实上,他们已经在这么做了。现在,已经有大量的主机玩家在玩在线游戏。虽然传统游戏与在线游戏相比存在视觉效果上的优势,但是硬核游戏玩家也找到了新的乐趣,这些在线游戏不受主机、零售或下载成本或时间的限制。

游戏发展史表明,游戏行业不同阶段的玩家行为也各不相同。尽管游戏公司数年来一直认为依靠数字内容盈利是非常重要的,但是我们正在踏进前所未有的转变点。就这种改变趋势来看,预计会有至少一家西方游戏发行巨头会无法适应这种新的生态系统,其最终的结果就是自我灭亡。

Facebook和在线游戏并非昙花一现的潮流,它们代表的是未来的行业趋势。能够理解并在这个新生态系统中创造出优秀内容的公司将会繁荣发展,我们希望Kabam成为其中之一。

游戏邦注:原文发表于2011年5月24日,所涉时间及数据均以此为准。(本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译,如需转载请联系:游戏邦

Hardcore Social Gaming Disrupting the Industry

Chris Carvalho

To many in gaming, hardcore social gaming is an oxymoron. To Kabam, it has been the fuel that has led our hyper growth in the last 16 months from 25 people working above a Dim Sum restaurant to over 400 people today in offices on three continents. While most social games are targeted towards soccer moms with shallow, casual gaming features, Kabam’s games are designed for hardcore gamers, who want deeply immersive, synchronous play.

The rapid growth of online gameplay in browsers and on social networks has given rise to a great deal of debate. While it seems there is vigorous agreement that digital content and monetization models are important to the future of gaming, there is a debate on the “how”, especially among the gaming cognoscenti. The contentions:

Social game playing (e.g. on Facebook) is a bubble that will soon burst.

Social games will never be played by real gamers, the “hardcore” gamer raised on consoles and PC gaming.

There’s a revolution going on, a tectonic shift, taking place in the game industry akin to the disruption that iTunes brought to the music industry. This disruption is a result of a combination of technology advances, shifts in game player behavior and superior business/economic models.

Here are the key trends we see.

TREND #1 – Boxed games (console, handheld, PC) revenue growth on the decline; online is growing and will surpass offline game revenues in the next 12-18 months.

While the overall games industry is growing at about a 6% CAGR, a deeper look at the numbers reveals that all of that growth is coming from sources other than boxed software games. The online market is growing at 3-times the rate of the overall market, while the boxed games are declining (Exhibit I). In 2008, online revenue (which we define as social networks, web and mobile) was less than half of total boxed game revenues. Sometime in 2012 the online game share of the total worldwide market will surpass boxed console/handheld/PC sales (Exhibit II) …and keep growing.

TREND #2 – Social network models are disrupting the traditional gaming industry with superior pricing, business and economic models.

There is no doubting the great visual quality of console or PC-based games especially compared to social and mobile games. The disruption is occurring in how games are found, played, and paid for by consumers.

The Social Model disrupts the old game models by leveraging community and reducing friction for the user. The traditional model dictates that consumers must pay for a dedicated platform (i.e., console) and software before they engage in one second of gameplay. The company is in control. In sharp contrast, the Social Model puts the consumer in control. This new model:

creates incentives to play with your friends or to find a community of new friends that have common interests – their love of a particular game

allows for gameplay on any number of common multi-function devices

is based on a free-to-play model that allows for consumers to try something before opening up their wallet and even then, they choose what they buy and how much they spend

enables instant gratification, since there’s no need to take a trip to the store or wait for long downloads – games are available immediately in the browser

Net: Gamers like the community aspects of playing with old and new friends on social networks. Just as importantly social games remove a lot of barriers that a consumer finds with traditional games: no downloads, no visits to retail, no credit card unless the gamer wants to become even more engaged.

TREND #3 – Social games are not monolithic. Core game players are increasingly migrating to alternate platforms, and are playing games on Facebook.

Part of the rap on social games is due to the proliferation of simple, copycat, click ‘em games that that hundreds of millions of consumers play every day on Facebook. These games are famous for the audience they attract — “middle-aged women”, the soccer moms — and the level of their gameplay (not very sophisticated or competitive). That was the first wave. Since we launched Kingdoms of Camelot in late 2009 as a strategy/empire building game on Facebook, we’ve been leading the next wave – hardcore social games. These games combine the qualities and features that gamers have enjoyed in traditional MMO strategy and RPGs with the interaction and connectivity benefits of social networks. Our heaviest users play our games four hours a day.

Put another way, these are games that are designed for hardcore gamers to enjoy. They are skill-based, much more competitive, challenging and designed to sustain extended playing sessions (hours of play vs. five-minute click fests).

And, those hardcore gamers are playing these games on Facebook. Kabam recently fielded a social gamer survey in conjunction with Information Solutions Group to understand this trend. Among many findings, we learned that 82% of all people who are playing strategy/RPG style games on Facebook and other social networks also are playing console games. We’ll be sharing an in-depth report of these findings later this summer.

Back to the original debate.

Is social game playing a bubble that will soon burst? Hardly. Hundreds of millions of consumers play these games and as importantly are speaking with their wallets. Online gaming is a several billion dollar segment of gaming today that’s projected to surpass boxed games in sales next year.

Will real gamers play games on Facebook? In fact, they already are. Console gamers who also play online games are no longer small minorities. While the visual fidelity of traditional games vis-a-vis online games is substantial, hardcore gamers are finding a new place to play – one unfettered by console, retail, or download cost and time requirements.

Kabam is the pioneer and leader of making games that appeal to hardcore gamers on Facebook and other social networks. That’s a result of making games that combine what gamers look for in MMO style strategy and RPG games with the connectivity/interaction benefits of social networks. As VentureBeat states in a recent article, How Kabam is cracking the code for hardcore games: “…just a stone’s throw away from the headquarters of traditional game company Electronic Arts, Kabam is building a very large business that could disrupt other game makers.”

History has shown that as the gaming industry goes through phases and cycles, players and positions change. While gaming companies have for years been discussing the importance of revenue from digital content we are entering an unprecedented inflection point. With the level of disruption taking place in this cycle, we anticipate that at least one major Western publisher will not adapt to the new ecosystem…and as a result, tumble.

Facebook and “online” games are not a passing fad. Rather, they represent a bigger, more disruptive trend. Companies with the DNA to understand and create great content in this new ecosystem will thrive. In this fast moving and brave new world, Kabam will be one of those companies. (Source: Industry Gamers)


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