作者：Azam Khan

在Zynga即将执行IPO之际，在决定是否投资之前先调查下公司是很重要的。本篇文章阐述Zynga在准备面向公共市场之际，该公司潜藏的“危险因素”。

以下列举了Zynga近期发布的S-1文件中所述的风险和不确定性。与其他游戏开发商相同，Zynga也在不断探索社交和手机游戏市场。为达此目标，他们为全世界玩家提供在线服务，包括新游戏的发布以及对《Frontierville》等现有游戏的深化。而且，Zynga已经开始投资其基础技术结构，获取更大的国际竞争力，在手机市场上逐渐变得强势。

zynga-characters(from weblogs.baltimoresun.com)

1、如果我们无法与Facebook维持良好关系，我们的业务便可能遭遇不测

Zynga的业务对Facebook的依赖性很大。这两大巨头希望在将来加深合作。如果Facebook今年盈利达40亿美元的话，Zynga给Facebook带来的盈利预计将达到10%。但如果Facebook决定自行发布游戏、收购游戏公司（游戏邦注：近期出现这两种情况的可能性都很低）或完全禁止Zynga在网站上的游戏，对Zynga来说便是场灾难。

2、我们正处在新兴且改变迅速的行业里，这使得我们难以精确评估业务

Zynga已经采取措施升级分析和数据系统，使其每天可记录1024TB的游戏和业务数据。因为公司与玩家的关系主要承载于Facebook上，Zynga正逐渐采取步骤建立玩家与公司的关系，比如使用《Rewardville》等来激发玩家的忠诚度。Zynga还必须保持其胜利之势，比其他竞争者做得更好，否则便有可能导致员工流失。

3、我们的运营模式较新且公司历史较短，这使得评估将来的经济成果很困难，或许会增加失败的风险

虚拟商品行业是Zynga的主要市场，而这个市场在西方才刚刚起步。据文件所述，该公司游戏玩家每秒购买的虚拟道具数达到3.8万，Zynga玩家每天花在这项服务上的总时间数达到20亿分钟。虚拟商品产生的盈利大大超过广告盈利。2008年，公司在线游戏和虚拟商品销售共产生的盈利为530万美元，广告盈利为1410万美元。2010年的情况完全相反，Zynga凭借虚拟商品及其在线游戏共获得5.746亿美元的盈利，广告收入只有2280万美元。

4、我们的大部分盈利来自于小部分玩家

大部分盈利都来自于小部分玩家，这已经是个公开的秘密，这些玩家也称为鲸鱼用户。这些玩家就是游戏公司的立足之本，他们会在虚拟道具上花上30美元到300美元不等的金钱。这些鲸鱼玩家随时可以选择将这笔钱花在其他地方，因而重点在于识别和留住这些玩家。

5、大部分盈利来自小部分游戏，如果要使盈利增长并维持公司目前的地位，我们必须继续发布和深化游戏，吸引和留住那些付费玩家

游戏巨作的运营风险相当高，它们可能成就开发公司，也可能让其毁灭。尽管如此，Zynga小心翼翼地把从之前游戏运营中得到的经验运用到新发布产品中。Zynga的挑战在于要侧重哪些游戏，现在《Empires & Allies》在Facebook上的月活跃用户达到3300万，公司正面临此等抉择。

6、大部分游戏流量来源单一，如果该网络失败或受到重大挫折，就可能影响到我们公司的业务

Zynga很严肃地指出了公司基础架构上的问题，他们过分依赖AWS（游戏邦注：全称“Amazon Web Services”）。网页崩溃、断电、人为错误和其他问题都可能产生影响，导致玩家失去兴趣。Zynga承认短期内会继续使用第三方服务，但也会加大在技术方面的投资，使公司的基础结构不断向前发展。

7、安全漏洞、电脑病毒和黑客攻击都可能影响我们的业务和运营成果

黑客攻击和安全问题逐渐盛行，这些天里最受人关注的便是Playstation Network受到的攻击。Zynga必须确保其flash游戏不会轻易受到攻击，而且必须保证玩家隐私的绝对安全，因为公司掌握着数百万玩家的姓名和信用卡号。

8、如果我们未能有效掌控公司的成长，我们的业务和运营成果可能会受到影响

Zynga的员工中有64%在公司中待的时间不超过1年。92%的员工在Zynga工作的时间不超过2年。Zynga会继续投资以吸引更多顶级人才。现在，人才争夺战愈演愈烈，Zynga必须加快步伐吸引手机方面有价值的雇员，赶在竞争对手Storm8、TinyCo或PocketGems之前。

9、如果我们无法开发出成功的手机平台游戏，我们的成长将会受到影响

Zynga在手机市场方面的经验有限，这使得他们很难制作出能够产生预期成果的系统。Zynga在Facebook上的表现已经超过了他们的期望值，他们需要制定出同样具有吸引力的战略，在手机平台上取得类似的成果。Zynga最重要的收购之举便是并购NewToy，公司付出将近5000万美元购得这个《Words with Friends》之类流行文字游戏的开发商。

据文件所述，Zynga最新手机游戏《Hanging with Friends》在2011年6月发布，成为发布首周期间苹果App Store下载量最高的游戏。

10、向国际市场扩张对我们的成长至关重要，随着我们逐渐变得国际化，我们可能会面临其他业务、政治、调控、操作、金融和经济危机，任何因素都可能增加我们的成本并阻碍公司的成长

国际市场本地化似乎是Zynga所面临的最具挑战性的任务之一。Zynga所需做的工作包括：让游戏吸引非美国玩家；成立开发工作室；理解全球各种不同文化并有效地制作出吸引那些玩家的虚拟商品。

Zynga面临重重挑战，但该游戏巨头已经准备好在游戏行业中继续前进。许多人认为Zynga的股票可能涨跌频繁，因为Zynga的形势似乎极为易变。但是，Zynga年年都赚取了大笔金钱，在166个国家中拥有1.48亿的月独立用户。公司在2011年前3个月便获得2.35亿美元的盈利，与去年同期相比增加了1倍多。

但是，即便Zynga成功处理了所有这些挑战，依赖Facebook这个问题依然存在。你觉得该公司未来会有何变化呢？（本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译，如需转载请联系：游戏邦）

Zynga’s 10 Key Challenges Explained

Azam Khan

With Zynga’s S-1 filing and inevitable IPO on the horizon, it’s important to take a critical look at the company before deciding whether to invest or not. This article elaborates on the ‘risk factors’ Zynga has identified as it prepares for the public markets. More after the jump.

The following are risks and uncertainties for Zynga as listed in its S-1 filings recently. Zynga, like other game developers, is on a quest to capture as miuch of the social and mobile gaming market as possible. In order to do this, they are operating live services for players world wide, including launches of new games and enhancements to existing games like Frontierville. In addition, Zynga has to continue to invest in its technology infrastructure, gain more traction internationally and become stronger on mobile.

1. If we are unable to maintain a good relationship with Facebook, our business will suffer

Zynga’s business heavily depends on Facebook. Deemed ‘frenemies’, the 2 giants are looking to extend their relationship for the foreseeable future. Zynga is expected to account for 10% of Facebook’s revenue, or roughly $400M, if Facebook makes $4B in revenues this year. If Facebook decides to launch its own games or acquires a gaming company (both of which seem unlikely at the moment), or outright bans Zynga games on Facebook, Zynga could suffer.

2. We operate in a new and rapidly changing industry, which makes it difficult to evaluate our business and prospects

Zynga has taken measures to upgrade its analytics and data systems that allows them to capture over 1 Pentabyte of data daily on its games and business. Since the relations are mostly owned by Facebook, Zynga is taking steps to establish its own relations with its players using properties such as Rewardville to inspire loyalty. Zynga also has to stay ahead of the curve and perform better than its competitors or risk losing its employees.

3. We have a new business model and a short operating history, which makes it difficult to evaluate our prospects and future financial results and may increase the risk that we will not be successful

The virtual goods industry is just starting to take off in the west which is Zynga’s primary market. According to the filing there are 38,000 virtual items created every second, with Zynga’s players spending a total of 2 billion minutes on the service daily. The revenue generated from virtual goods trumps all ad revenue. In 2008, online games and virtual good sales comprised $5.3 million of Zynga’s revenue while advertising generated $14.1 million. In 2010, the situation was opposite: Zynga made $574.6 million from virtual goods and its online games and just $22.8 million from advertising.

4. We rely on a small percentage of our players for nearly all of our revenue

It’s no secret that majority of gaming revenue is generated from a small percentage of people also known as whales. These players are the bread and butter for the gaming companies and spend anywhere from $30 to $300 on virtual items. These whales can choose to take their spending elsewhere anytime they feel, so its important to identify and retain these players.

5. A small number of games have generated a majority of our revenue, and we must continue to launch and enhance games that attract and retain a significant number of paying players in order to grow our revenue and sustain our competitive position

Games are risky and operate as hits, they either make it or tank, at least when you’re not operating the game as a lifestyle business and not worried about missed opportunities. Zynga has been meticulous, though, in taking all its learnings from its previous titles when launching new ones. Zynga’s challenge will lie in figuring out which titles to pursue and which ones to leave behind – a challenge it seems to be tackling head on as it has pushed its Empires & Allies to over 33MMAUs on Facebook.

6. A significant majority of our game traffic is hosted by a single vendor, and any failure or significant interruption in our network could impact our operations and harm our business

Zynga is taking issues of hosting and infrastructure very seriously, aptly pointing out the problems it suffered in the past by over reliance on a single vendor such as AWS, Amazon Web Services. Website disruptions, outages, human errors and other issues can be quite disruptive and cause players to lose interest. Zynga admits that its reliance on third parties for specific elements in the cloud hosting value chain will continue but it will continue to make solid investments in tech. infrastructure moving forward.

7. Security breaches, computer viruses and computer hacking attacks could harm our business and results of operations

We’re all seeing the onslaught of hacker attacks and security exploits becoming more prevalent; the Playstation Network attack being the most notable attack these days. It’ll be imperative for Zynga to make sure its flash games aren’t easily hackable and that its players’ privacy remains properly secured so the playstation saga, where millions of names and credit cards were compromised, doesn’t happen again.

8. If we fail to effectively manage our growth, our business and operating results could be harmed

Over half of Zynga’s employees, 64% to be exact, have been with the company for less than a year. 92% have been with Zynga for less than 2 years. Zynga will continue to invest in attracting the top talent, and has also subjectively been known to ‘dry up’ talent in places around the globe. There is a full fledged talent war taking place and Zynga will have to move fast to attract employees for its mobile efforts before others like Storm8, TinyCo or PocketGems lure them all.

9. Our growth prospects will suffer if we are unable to develop successful games for mobile platforms

Zynga’s limited experience in mobile makes it difficult for them to create a system that, most of the time, delivers results as expected. Zynga has already surpassed their own expectations on Facebook and will need to devise an equally compelling strategy on mobile to yield similar results. Zynga’s most significant acquisition has been NewToy, paying close to $50M for the glorified maker of the popular scrabble-like word game Words with Friends.

Zynga’s latest mobile game, Hanging with Friends, was launched in June 2011 and became the most downloaded game in Apple’s App Store during its first week, according to the filing.

10. Expansion into international markets is important for our growth, and as we expand internationally, we face additional business, political, regulatory, operational, financial and economic risks, any of which could increase our costs and hinder such growth

Localizing for international markets seems to be one of the top most challenging tasks for Zynga. Zynga’s efforts include expansion of their games to attract non-US players, establishment of offices and development studios, and understanding various cultures around the globe to effectively create virtual goods that appeal to those players.

Many challenges lie ahead for Zynga, but the gaming giant is ready to take on the next frontiers in gaming. Many speculate that Zynga’s stock will be a buy and dump ordeal as Zynga’s situation may be more volatile than it seems. Zynga is, however, earning serious money and has over 148MMUUs in over 166 countries. The company has pulled in $235 million in revenue for the first three months of 2011, up more than twice the $100 million it pulled in for the same period a year ago.

Even if Zynga can manage all these challenges, the question of Facebook still remains. What do you anticipate will happen? (Source: Social Times)