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苹果叫停推广墙行为及其对所涉公司的影响

发布时间:2011-05-10 11:38:11 Tags:,,

尽管苹果出台政策拒绝带有推广墙的应用,但三周后开发商仍对平台新审核方法感到迷茫。

上个月,苹果开始向含有安装奖励或推广墙的应用开发商发送驳回公告。在此类应用中,玩家可通过下载其他应用免费获得游戏内的虚拟货币。这种推广方式于去年出现在各应用中,开发商以此获得额外的利润并增加游戏的曝光率。出资赞助推广墙下载可能使开发商跃居排行榜前列,这种行为引起众人指责,称此类网络事实上默认开发商购买排名和“戏弄排行榜”的行为。

尽管苹果无视安装奖励行为长达数月之久,4月份公司一反常态,称开发商操控应用排名的行为违背iOS开发协议。许多开发商近几个月内将产品盈利方式转变为应用内购买和推广墙,苹果公司立场的改变使其大为受挫。据手机应用调查公司Xyologic所述,3月份美国iPhone应用下载量为9990万次,其中39.9%是带有应用内购买的免费游戏。

推广墙

事态形势

Inside Mobile Apps此前并没有大量报道此事件,因为苹果还未对事件做出解释,而且开发商也不愿对此发表看法。据众多开发商和安装网络供应商所述,苹果还未说明其最终政策,也未曾解释公司上个月改变做法的原因。

此前安装网络方面曾公布有趣的说法,称开发商同苹果联系搞好关系后含有推广墙的应用便可以通过审核。但某些应用仍然被拒,文字消息应用Pinger表示5月初带推广墙的应用更新未通过审核。包括由Sequoia赞助的Pocket Gems在内的许多开发商的应对策略是将推广墙从新应用中移除。自苹果变更政策起还未在商店上更新应用的开发商表示,他们的推广墙运转正常,许多Tapjoy的做法事实上仍在发挥作用。苹果上月修正的排名运算法则似乎很大程度上与原先并没有差别,新应用时常出现在榜单上。

开发商群体的不确定性在5月初游戏开发商Glu Mobile的盈余电话会议上表露无遗,公司在会议上需公开向投资方阐述上述政策变更对财政的影响以及苹果的态度。首席执行官Niccolo de Masi说道:“事态仍在发生变化,基于推广的盈利机制还未定出明确的界限。”

在2007年苹果发布iPhone之前,Glu便已走进公众的视野,参与让功能手机游戏制作脱离对运营商过分依赖的战略计划。公司在盈余电话会议上表示,通过免费游戏虚拟货币盈利模式,Glu智能手机盈利季度环比达到590万美元(游戏邦注:此项数据根据公认会计原则统计而得。),几乎是之前的两倍。但对于今年第二季度的盈余计划,公司不得不采取非常保守的估计。Glu估计本季度推广盈利可能比1个月前预计的要少许多,计划盈利只有280万美元。到现在为止,公司已完成半数指标。

Glu Mobile-logo

Glu Mobile

目前Glu表示本季度智能手机盈利(游戏邦注:非公认会计原则统计结果)将增长至725万到825万美元,增长量预计为55万到155万美元。与第一季度的330万美元智能手机盈利季度环比相比,本季度的数据将显著降低。当然,上5个季度Glu预估的盈利都较低,因而公司也可能只是保守估计成果。

政策变更对各公司的影响

如果将Glu当成其他带有应用内付费的免费游戏开发商的典范,那么可以看到推广墙占游戏盈利的1/3。Glu表示在上季度智能手机670万美元的盈利(游戏邦注:非公认会计原则统计结果。)中,推广墙盈利为220万美元,占33%左右。Glu认为智能手机盈利季度环比增加将会放缓,公司为平台最终禁止安装奖励事宜做好准备。de Masi对Inside Mobile Apps说道:“事态还不明朗,无论苹果打压或推行安装付费,Glu正为所有可能发生的变化做好准备。”

销售可能变得更加不可预测,失去推广墙的最终结果或许难以估算,因为变化会引起连锁反应。开发商使用推广墙的意图不仅在于盈利,还可以推销他们的产品。如果这种形式被否决,获取用户的难度将会更大。如果开发商的产品无法获得用户关注,产品的商业化自然也无从谈起。

其他广告形式是否能从此次变革中受益,目前仍不清楚。Inside Mobile Apps采访过的某些开发商正关注类似的广告方式,与以前一样给看广告的用户奖励虚拟货币。但是目前还未见到获众多开发商关注的推广墙替代品,因为事态刚刚过去几周,情势尚不明朗。

受影响的其他群体

总体来说,所有将众多免费应用推上iOS商店前100名应用榜单的顶级游戏开发商本季度的盈利增长将放缓。4月末Xyologic发布的报告根据免费应用(游戏邦注:这些应用都带有应用内付费。)下载量排列登榜的开发商。Inside Mobile Apps发现这个列表甚为典型,因为其中所有开发商本季度可能都会面临Glu的问题。以下列表中的数据只是美国地区下载量的估算值,非全球数据。

带应用内付费的免费iPhone游戏十大发行商

自然,此事让Tapjoy之类的安装网络公司感到最为头疼,该公司近期主动限制单个应用可引导的下载数量。对多数游戏开发商而言,此事最终可能只属于暂时性的障碍。iPhone和iPad上的应用量仍在不断增加,Android的表现也很令人期待,尽管其每用户平均收益仍然很低。

与Facebook做法的比较

正如上文所提到的那样,对Tapjoy和Super Rewards之类提供推广墙的公司而言,此事似乎已然经历过。这些公司曾在Facebook平台上做过各种不同形式的推广墙,2009年也在该平台上遇到类似的危险事件。

Tapjoy前身Offerpal有着与现在完全不同的管理团队,当时被谴责应该为所提供推广的质量制定更为严格的标准。Facebook意图利用公司支持的迅速成长的生态系统来盈利,因此启动其自有虚拟货币Credits并选择某个竞争对手作为主要的推广供应商。这个决定最终将把其他公司挤出该平台。

在Facebook的这个事件中,公司至少为开发商提供了发展的路标。Facebook于7月份开始测试其自有付费平台到计划将Credits作为游戏的通用虚拟货币,这期间有两年多的时间。这使得第三方公司和开发商有时间为此等变革做准备。与Facebook相比,苹果并没有真正与众开发商交流其新措施。开发商协议上的确有相关规定,但苹果直到上个月才决定将推广墙定义为违反此条款的行为。

但此事件丝毫没有减少开发商的热情。iTune付费仍流畅进行而且市场也很庞大,上季度iOS设备销量累计达到1.89亿,并且开发商仍然蜂拥向此平台。(本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译,转载请注明来源:游戏邦)

Developers Still in the Dark About Apple’s Policies on Incentivized Installs, Rankings

Three weeks after Apple began rejecting apps containing offer walls, developers are still in the dark about what is acceptable and what is not under the platform’s new approach.

Last month, Apple began sending rejection notices to developers if their apps contained incentivized installs or offer walls where players can get virtual currency for free in a game if they download other apps. This practice emerged over the last year as a way for developers to earn extra revenue and to predictably get visibility for their games. By paying for enough downloads on these walls, developers could break into to the top of the charts. This is in turn raised criticism that these networks were effectively allowing developers to buy rank or “game the charts.”

Although Apple tolerated incentivized installs for months, it reversed course in April, arguing that they violate the iOS developer agreement by manipulating chart rankings. The company’s change in stance was a setback for many developers who have made their apps free in recent months and turned to in-app purchases and offer walls for revenue. Of an estimated 99.9 million downloads of iPhone apps in the U.S. in March, 39.9 percent of them were free games with in-app purchases, according to mobile app research firm Xyologic.

What’s Happening Now?

We haven’t covered the issue in the last two weeks largely because Apple hasn’t provided any clarity and developers have been reluctant to speak on the record. Apple hasn’t said what its final policy will be or fully explained the reasons behind its turnabout last month, according to multiple developers and install networks.

We’ve heard of anecdotal cases from the install networks where developers have been able to pull strings with connections at Apple and get their apps in the door that include offer walls. But then in other cases, they’re still getting rejected: text-messaging app Pinger said it had an update with an offer wall rejected this week. Many developers, like Sequoia-backed Pocket Gems, responded by taking offer walls out of their newest titles. Developers that haven’t sent updates to the store since Apple’s changes say their offer walls are working just fine and many Tapjoy campaigns are actually operating normally as we speak. The rankings algorithm, which Apple tinkered with last month, looks like it largely went back to what it used to be and new apps are surfacing with regularity.

All of the uncertainty in the developer community was vividly underscored in game developer Glu Mobile’s earnings call this week, where the company had to speak publicly to its investors about the financial fallout and Apple’s positioning on the matter. “The situation is still unfolding,” said chief executive Niccolo de Masi. “There is not perfect clarity on where a line is or isn’t in regards to offer-based monetization mechanisms.”

Glu, which went public before Apple launched the iPhone in 2007, is in the middle of making a transition away from a carrier-dependent strategy of making games for feature phones. Using freemium games that make money with virtual currency, Glu nearly doubled smartphone revenues quarter-over-quarter to $5.9 million (under generally accepted accounting principles), it said in its earnings call this week. But it had to take an extremely conservative stance with earnings guidance for the second quarter. The company’s assuming that it will earn $2.8 million in offer revenue this quarter, much less than it probably would have expected a month ago. Half of that figure has also already been transacted.

Glu is now saying that smartphone revenue (using non-generally accepted accounting principles) will grow by between $550,000 and $1.55 million to between $7.25 and $8.25 million. That would be a marked slowdown from the $3.3 million in quarter-over-quarter smartphone revenue growth it posted in the the first quarter. (Glu’s beaten guidance for the last five quarters, so the company is also probably just playing it safe.)

What’s the financial fallout?

If we take Glu as a benchmark for other free-to-play games with in-app purchases, we’re looking at offer walls contributing one-third of game revenue. Glu said offer wall revenue made up $2.2 million in revenue of the $6.7 million in smartphone revenues it earned last quarter (using non-generally accepted accounting principles) or about 33 percent. Glu is predicting quarter-over-quarter revenue growth will slow and it’s preparing for the case that incentivized installs eventually become banned on the platform. “The situation’s unclear and Glu is preparing for the full range of possibilities — from CPI (cost-per-install) being highly discouraged to being highly permitted,” de Masi told us.

Distribution may become more unpredictable and the ultimate effect of losing offer walls may be hard to calculate since its effect is so circular. Developers use offer walls not only to earn revenue, but to distribute their work. If they get shut down, acquiring users may become more unpredictable and if developers can’t get users in the door, they can’t monetize them.

It’s still unclear what other forms of advertising will benefit from the crackdown. Some developers we’ve talked to are looking at advertising where they can still reward users with virtual currency if they take actions like viewing ads. But we haven’t seen an alternative to offer walls gain traction among developers yet since the situation is still unclear and it’s only been a few weeks.

Who Else is Affected?

Basically, all of the top game developers who regularly push multiple free apps into the Top 100 grossing apps on the iOS store may see a slowdown in revenue growth this quarter. When Xyologic published its report last week, it listed the top developers who had the biggest download numbers for free apps with in-app purchases. We find it to be a pretty representative list of all of the developers who probably are facing what Glu is seeing this quarter. Just to stress: the chart below contains estimates for U.S. downloads. They are not global figures.

Naturally, the companies that may feel the most pain are the install networks themselves like Tapjoy. The company recently voluntarily dampened the effects of its campaigns by limiting the number of downloads any single app could facilitate. In the end, it’s likely that this is a temporary setback for most game developers. iPhone and iPad adoption continues on its upward trajectory and Android is very promising, although average revenue per user is still much lower.

When The Same Thing Happened on Facebook, At Least It Had a Roadmap

Like we’ve said before, it’s deja vu all over again for many of the companies providing offer walls like Tapjoy and Super Rewards. These companies, which transitioned from doing different kinds of offer walls on the Facebook platform, faced an uncannily similar situation on that platform in 2009.

Tapjoy, which used to be known as Offerpal and had a totally different management team, came under fire for not having tighter standards over the quality of offers it was providing. Facebook, wanting to financially tap the burgeoning ecosystem it was supporting, launched its own virtual currency Credits and selected a rival to be its primary offers provider. This decision will eventually crowd other companies in the space off the platform.

In Facebook’s case, it at least provided a developer roadmap. There has also been more than two years of time between when Facebook began testing its own payments platform to July, when it plans to make Credits the mandatory currency for canvas games. This has given third-party companies and developers months to plan ahead for this transition. Apple, in contrast, has not really communicated its new approach to the developer community. The developer agreement does say, “Developers who attempt to manipulate or cheat the user reviews or chart ranking in the App Store with fake or paid reviews, or any other inappropriate methods will be removed from the iOS Developer Program.” But Apple didn’t decide to interpret offer walls as a violation of this clause until last month. Apple’s lack of communication in managing this issue makes Facebook ironically seem like the patron saint of transparency.

Not that this will do anything to deter developers. iTunes payments are so fluid and the market size is so large, with 189 million iOS devices sold cumulatively as of last quarter, that developers will still be climbing all over themselves to be on the platform.

Pick your platform. Pick your poison. (Source: Inside Mobile Apps)


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